Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[The Unknown Order he/him]

13 hours ago, Cinnamon said:

The only reason I can think of that they would have been confident is if they knew who I was going to kill and the only person who knew beyond reasonable doubt was Archer. I PMed him saying that I V! read him and asking him for advice on who to kill, O wanted to see what he would say, not just for advice, but also to see what he would say to get a more solid read. He was very nice and eventually we settled on JNV. (So yes to answer your question I did kill them) After our interaction I was pretty strongly Vreading Archer, however, as we know know JNV was V. I cannot possibly think Archer E for making a mistake (especially given I made the same one) but I know that he is really smart and can’t help wondering if it was all a gambit, I am inclined to trust him, for now, I definitely don’t want any him to die, but I thought I should make sure you guys have all the information.  

I don't like this, sure v!Archer could have just made a mistake, but all e!Archer had to do was know who you were going after. I think I'm going to go Archer (Da(n=n)ex) for how their Da(n=n)ex points were faulty and now that the Da(n=n)ex train is likely to go through, Archer reserves Mat as a place to move their vote in the future, which assumimg Archer is e, Da(n=n)ex is very likely flip vil.

Was there anyone he seemed to not want to kill?

[+Whysper she/her]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Isn’t Dannnex’s logic effectively the same as bad as yours? He was looking in the new players and you were looking at the experienced ones. You said yourself the groups were the same size and we agreed that the elim team most likely has a mix of both. On paper, that looks the same to me but maybe I’m glossing over something :P. It’s not a sticking point for me either way.

Well, I can kind of see Archer's point in that there definitely has to be someone from the experienced pool with how things are going. There could be one from the inexperienced pool, but not necessarily. It just seems likely statistically. And maybe it should theoretically be easier to find the experienced one because there's more to go off?

Yet I can't help thinking that making a mistake there and removing experienced town members more quickly is going to be a problem. The Elims are going to be taking away from that pool, too, like they have.

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

My impression of your thinking about voting was based on your previous statements:

All of those statements are about voting in general. I definitely plan to vote, that was never a question. Sorry if my confidence fell off the map after condemning turtle and pushing shadow over in consecutive cycles :P.

I can kind of see TUN’s point but also, wanting to kill everyone implies no teammates :P. Though I think the argument is that he’s fishing around for the popular option.

12 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Well, I can kind of see Archer's point in that there definitely has to be someone from the experienced pool with how things are going. There could be one from the inexperienced pool, but not necessarily. It just seems likely statistically. And maybe it should theoretically be easier to find the experienced one because there's more to go off?

Yet I can't help thinking that making a mistake there and removing experienced town members more quickly is going to be a problem. The Elims are going to be taking away from that pool, too, like they have.

Well, I agree with all that, but I didn’t get why Archer like implied Dannex was using logical fallacies when the argument looked like two sides of the same coin to me

[+Whysper she/her]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well, I agree with all that, but I didn’t get why Archer like implied Dannex was using logical fallacies when the argument looked like two sides of the same coin to me

Actually yeah, I think Archer's statements against Dannex are too strong. I could see him saying he disagrees with him about where to focus, but to call them logical fallacies is kind of weird.

I am kind of getting a bad feeling about Archer. And I'd really like to hear more from Cinn about the conversations with Archer about the target.

[Just a Silvereye he/him]

I too am indeed getting more and more suspicious regarding Archer. I still v read you, but not as strongly as before and it would not need much to make you flip elim in my mind. I would be as interested as anyone else by more details about that PM with Cinnamon

I am still set on Bookwyrm for now (who has been pretty inactive recently, but I'm willing to chalk it up to NaNoWriMo). But I could flip on Mat or possibly Archer (still not sure about it) depending on how VC evolves over the next few hours.

Edit: here's the current VC

Mat (1): Illwei

Bookwyrm (2): Dannnnnnex, Silvereye

Dannnnnex (2): Archer, Silhouette 

Archer (1): TUN

Edited November 2, 2022 by Just a Silvereye

[+Whysper she/her]

33 minutes ago, Just a Silvereye said:

Edit: here's the current VC

Mat (1): Illwei

Bookwyrm (2): Dannnnnnex, Silvereye

Dannnnnex (2): Archer, Silhouette 

Archer (1): TUN

Thanks for this! I was wondering about the current vc.

Archer

I want to see what happens with the Archer wagon. Logically I should probably vote for Bookwyrm, which is maybe where I'll go later. But I'm curious about this.

[---]

The problem is I think Archer has been incorrect about everything, but that's not uncommon for him as a villager.

I'm leaning danex v

I had a dream that i had a conversation with kas about the game

[+Whysper she/her]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

The problem is I think Archer has been incorrect about everything, but that's not uncommon for him as a villager.

But how does that remove him from being Elim, where he can be wrong intentionally?  Or are you saying you find that he is usually right as Elim?

 

[---]

4 minutes ago, Whysper said:

But how does that remove him from being Elim, where he can be wrong intentionally?  Or are you saying you find that he is usually right as Elim?

Its me expressing that I don't have reason to scumread Archer for being wrong, despite thinking he's wrong.

Knowing that He's the one who told cin to kill JNV makes me very upset.

[+Whysper she/her]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Its me expressing that I don't have reason to scumread Archer for being wrong, despite thinking he's wrong.

Oh, okay. What do you think of the interaction between Archer and Dannex though?

[---]

I think it's a silly argument and they're either both villagers who are being silly or both Elims who are having fun being silly.

I agree with Danex that we should be looking through the more inactives. I believe that there's probably one higher activity player who is an Elim and two newer players. something like [Mat/Archer], one of [Conq/TUN/Danex], one of [Bookwyrm/Archivist/Cinnamon] and one of [Shining/Silver]. I mean, i don't trust any of these groupings but that's ok because it's based on theoretical host meta.

Except I currently lean V on silver, shining, Danex.

I will remind people that if we are looking at only like 2 or 3 more Elims then Cinnamon is one, and if you (or a loved one) is a lurcher or a thug it's even more likely that cinnamon is an Elim. 

Bookwyrm

[Mat he/him]

• Bookwyrm: My brain is relentlessly in a village tunnel that feels wrong, yet still exists
• Dannex: I was a lot happier killing him before everyone randomly started putting him at the top of their reads list
• Archer: Powerplaying like usual which is either really good or really bad and like, toss up since I never have been able to read Archer

That's my problem

What if I just

Silvereye

-Has basically just been sheeping everyone else the entire game
-Has flown under the radar considerably
-No reason to v read them besides that NAI thing Shining found, so no reason to v read them (if there's a reason to v read them, @ me :P)

Cowardly? Perhaps. But I mean look at those three trains from my PoV :P. Should probably work through it. But also should probably finish that math test. I'd like to reread Dannex and Archer/Devo but idk if I'll have time.

I think I'd vote Dannex before Archer before Bookwyrm but that order is coming directly from my N2ish reads which maybe are outdated as they feel? Potentially will switch to a main train later if this doesn't become one (by which I mean, I plan to, but my one in person class is during the last half hour of the turn)

Hopefully that makes more sense than it feels like it does :D. It's Bookwyrm 3, Dannex/Archer 2 each, right? Plus my vote.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Bookwyrm: My brain is relentlessly in a village tunnel that feels wrong, yet still exists
• Dannex: I was a lot happier killing him before everyone randomly started putting him at the top of their reads list
• Archer: Powerplaying like usual which is either really good or really bad and like, toss up since I never have been able to read Archer

That's my problem

What if I just

Silvereye

-Has basically just been sheeping everyone else the entire game
-Has flown under the radar considerably
-No reason to v read them besides that NAI thing Shining found, so no reason to v read them (if there's a reason to v read them, @ me :P)

Cowardly? Perhaps. But I mean look at those three trains from my PoV :P. Should probably work through it. But also should probably finish that math test. I'd like to reread Dannex and Archer/Devo but idk if I'll have time.

I think I'd vote Dannex before Archer before Bookwyrm but that order is coming directly from my N2ish reads which maybe are outdated as they feel? Potentially will switch to a main train later if this doesn't become one (by which I mean, I plan to, but my one in person class is during the last half hour of the turn)

Hopefully that makes more sense than it feels like it does :D. It's Bookwyrm 3, Dannex/Archer 2 each, right?

damn, right after i townread him?

Note to everyone and esp mat that powerwolfing is a style in which you attempt to control thread and pull your teammates along with you without bussing. If Archer is powerwolfing then, who are his teammates?

Matrim I see you pulling out your village reads from the pool but i don't see any attempt at trying to come up with team comp which has to be a factor at least in e/lo. The people who don't try to figure out where we go next are the people who don't need to because we'll have lost.

EDIT:

On 11/1/2022 at 2:30 AM, Just a Silvereye said:

Hello, this is to inform you I now village read Illwei and Cinnamon. Illwei's late N2 post, that she linked right after my post last night, ruins my entire argument against them, and their claim this day is definitely villagery.

For Cinnamon, I am pretty sure that her teammates would have shouted her "don't claim" in the doc. Plus, she would have killed someone N1 if she was an elim. Finally, JNV as a target (for an elim coinshot) is weird because I think an elim would have preferred starting a train on them because they were e!read by several persons. On the other hand, I could see Cinnamon killing someone they expect to be elim.

 

Where does this leave us off? I am pretty sure of Cinnamon, Shining Silhouette, Archer and Illwei. So we have 3-4 elims (likely 4) in the 6 remaining players: Matrim, Whysper, Archivist, TUN, dannnnex, and Bookwyrm.

Not much to go off from Whysper/Conquestor so I'll leave them for now. 

The idea that at least one new player is elim means that either Archivist or Bookwyrm is elim (or possibly both). I am suspicious of both, but more of Bookwyrm for all the reasons I stated D3.

Among experienced players, Matrim could very well be teamed with Bookwyrm. TUN voting for himself D1, then the GM D2, could be either village (an elim has much better targets) or elim (looking active without actually trying to solve the problem). No idea on how to read dannnnex now.

So as a conclusion... Bookwyrm. Ha! Lots of talk, to get back where I was last turn. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Or I could go by contradiction logic and say that since several of my elim reads turned out village, the elims are Silhouette and Archer, the two persons I never suspected 

 

what happened to this

Quote

Depending on who here sees next sunrise, I'll vote Cinnamon, Archivist, JNV, or Illwei tomorrow. (I will certainly sleep by the time D4 is posted, so don't expect me before 8-12h into the thread)

Edited November 2, 2022 by Illwei

[+Whysper she/her]

24 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Note to everyone and esp mat that powerwolfing is a style in which you attempt to control thread and pull your teammates along with you without bussing. If Archer is powerwolfing then, who are his teammates?

Matrim I see you pulling out your village reads from the pool but i don't see any attempt at trying to come up with team comp which has to be a factor at least in e/lo. The people who don't try to figure out where we go next are the people who don't need to because we'll have lost.

You know, you are absolutely right. I don't really do this enough myself in FM and really shouldn't. Looking at team comp.

I guess if I were to take a shot at it, I would see something like this.

• 1 of Archer/Dannex 

• 1 of Mat/Shining 

• 1-2 of TUN/Aspiring/Silvereye/Bookwyrm 

I could actually see Archer and Mat being E-E. The way Mat talks about Archer could easily be distancing to keep at least one of them alive to the end.

[---]

Just now, Whysper said:

You know, you are absolutely right. I don't really do this enough myself in FM and really shouldn't. Looking at team comp.

I guess if I were to take a shot at it, I would see something like this.

• 1 of Archer/Dannex 

• 1 of Mat/Shining 

• 1-2 of TUN/Aspiring/Silvereye/Bookwyrm 

I could actually see Archer and Mat being E-E. The way Mat talks about Archer could easily be distancing to keep at least one of them alive to the end.

I'd love to wagon mat, unironically. I have wanted to this whole game.

Archivist

@Shining Silhouette @Just a Silvereye wanna join on archivist, could be fun

[Mat he/him]

30 minutes ago, Illwei said:

damn, right after i townread him?

Note to everyone and esp mat that powerwolfing is a style in which you attempt to control thread and pull your teammates along with you without bussing. If Archer is powerwolfing then, who are his teammates?

Matrim I see you pulling out your village reads from the pool but i don't see any attempt at trying to come up with team comp which has to be a factor at least in e/lo. The people who don't try to figure out where we go next are the people who don't need to because we'll have lost.

I know but like putting him in that category isn't going to convince me by itself :P.

I'm aware of what the term means, but I was also just using it to say that Archer is holding thread presence and that feels intentional. And that he does that anyway. Off today, Books work as Archer teammates decently well I think. TUN and Whysper probably wouldn't be teamed with him if they keep those votes. If all Silver comments on is that he's more convinced on e!Archer than before, that pairing works. e!Cin works afaik, ignoring that they're a Coinshot. It's like TUN mentioned, he's kinda pressured everyone save for Dannex equally, so it's hard to pin down a teammate set right now since basically everyone *theoretically* could fit. Him getting exed and flipping e would likely expose potential teammates though.

Probably should be thinking about that now I suppose. A Whysper/Silver/TUN team intuitively makes sense to me-- reads aside-- with the fourth being Dannex or Book, and the Archer push being a front to save a teammate. Alternatively e!Archer pushes v!Dannex early on to shield Book, who was a likely candidate today from the get go. As I messily decided above Archer could be teamed with a lot of people :P. TUN/Whysper being among the less likely. So maybe I should just ignore my reads and vote Bookwyrm since they show up twice :P.

Edit: Yes Archivist totally didn't forget they existed

Like I suppose they could be an elim as likely as any other new player but what info will their flip give? With either alignment. Like none, no?

Edited November 2, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

offering up a books/archer/[silver/Archivist]/cin team rn mat is like such a delicious looking treat i hate you for it

[+Whysper she/her]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

offering up a books/archer/[silver/Archivist]/cin team rn mat is like such a delicious looking treat i hate you for it

Sounds like someone didn't get enough Halloween candy  

[---]

22 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Sounds like someone didn't get enough Halloween candy  

My mother bought bags of skinnypop and cheese crisps to give out and still wonders why no one comes to our house

EDIT:

With this silence you guys have to all know that we're not getting an elim today right

Edited November 2, 2022 by Illwei

[Archer he/him]

-If I'd wanted to protect Archivist or Silvereye I wouldn't have called out how Danex's POE skipped over them. I suspect Danex is protecting one of them (likely Silvereye), but those two aren't high probability exe candidates. Taking shots in the dark isn't the way to win at exlo. 

The way this always goes is the village says it's between these two question marks and split their votes accordingly, and the elims add their votes strategically to make it blow up in our faces. We need a conspiracy of four people, and generally speaking, slotting in rookies to fill in an e-e pair theory turns out to be wrong. 

-To summarize the Cin PM: Cin PMed me, said they trusted me and asked whether shooting Illwei was a good idea. My answer was Illwei was either a helpful villager or a catchable elim, so I'd rather they shoot JNV. It wasn't a very long conversation (3 messages total, I think), but it didn't strike me as Cin trying to pawn off responsibility for their pick. That's been supported by their slowness to implicate me in the choice and the fact that they admitted to being a coinshot when there was no elim incentive to. 

-My team guess in order of confidence is Danex/Silvereye/Whysper/Mat. Yes I'm agreeing Silvereye is suspicious but they're a mirror image of JNV and Shadow. I'm done with that type of kill. 

[---]

19 minutes ago, Archer said:

-To summarize the Cin PM: Cin PMed me, said they trusted me and asked whether shooting Illwei was a good idea. My answer was Illwei was either a helpful villager or a catchable elim, so I'd rather they shoot JNV. It wasn't a very long conversation (3 messages total, I think), but it didn't strike me as Cin trying to pawn off responsibility for their pick. That's been supported by their slowness to implicate me in the choice and the fact that they admitted to being a coinshot when there was no elim incentive to. 

About what time did they ask this btw

EDIT:

Quote

My answer was Illwei was either a helpful villager or a catchable elim

This is also almost laughable

Edited November 2, 2022 by Illwei

[Archer he/him]

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

About what time did they ask this btw

EDIT:

This is also almost laughable

Cin: u up?    4:43AM EST

Me: don't be stupid   9:17AM

Cin: k    4:04PM (an hour before rollover)

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This is also almost laughable

It was pre-Mistborn reveal, remember, so I had some doubts, so I wasn't committed to outright defending you. 

[---]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

It was pre-Mistborn reveal, remember, so I had some doubts, so I wasn't committed to outright defending you. 

I'm talking in general, I think it's laughable that 1) you think people actually consider me useful based around how they interact with me which leads to 2) That you think I'm a catchable elim when I'm pushed basically every game

but anyways

We lose this game unless people want to get on and consolidate votes.

bookwyrm

[Just a Silvereye he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

what happened to this

I explained why I flipped on you and Cinnamon early this day, and I was not that hot on Archivist - at least less than on Bookwyrm. And obviously I couldn't vote JNV.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Quote

Can we get past the e!Bookwyrm theorizing after another round of them surviving not because anyone cast votes to build alternative wagons, but instead, people just changed their minds and unvoted them? I don't see their team support anywhere. 

- @Archer