Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Conquestor]

2 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Wow.

I would be willing to follow that line of reasoning, and check out some of the lesser actives, and those who weren't on at OoT. Which I suppose I belong to both of, but oh well. 

Edit: Oh, potency is a kill? That's surprising. I'd guess one more teammate then, probably with the protect or vote manip.

I agree except maybe there are two others, one being the blessing that detects other blessings and the other being the blessing that protects from kills. I think it is safe to assume that there isn't more than two more elims, but I guess you never know. 

Xino didn't interact very much, but his teammates must have made some attempt to save him, especially since he had an extra kill. I'm going to bed now, but I will do a thorough thread read tomorrow. 

[---]

I feel confident that I'm cleared off the xino vote? I don't know what the votecount was when Xino made his vote. I think his vote on Mat was when he was at 3 votes (shining/conq/Araris). I think, that while one of those might also be an Elim, I also think bussing the coinshot isn't the first choice for anyone.

Definitely opens up more possibility for bookworm to be an Elim, but also there is the fact that the train on xino didn't really actually gain traction until almost EoD.

ABOUT THE XINO VOTES

Xino's first vote on him was from Shining, as a initial poke vote you have to assume, so that's pretty NAI. my first thought was that it was most likely not an Elim because of Xino's being a coinshot, but as the cycle went on, the vote never changed. Not only that, but when Shining popped in later, at a time when Xino had been tied with Mat and Stick, they didn't take their vote off, even though it was a poke vote and would have been normal to change.
The second vote didn't happen until 4 hours before EoD, and was Matrim. this moved the votecount from being

Araris (3): Stick, Illwei, Wiz
Wiz (2): Mat, Xino

to

Araris (3): Stick, Illwei, Wiz
xino (2): Shining, Mat

Think it's interesting that Wiz was most likely on Araris for pure preservation, and had little to say otherwise. After Mat took his vote off of Wiz and moved it on to xino, Wiz came back to thread, took his vote off of Araris, and then left again.

Before the next moves onto Xino, Both me and Wiz take our votes off of Araris, and the main wagons shift again.

xino (2): Shining, Mat
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
Matrim (2): Illwei, Kasimir

I find this interesting, because I previously expected to find that the Araris movement onto Xino was for self preservation, but that's not the case, obviously, because at the time when Araris voted on Xino, Araris himself only had one vote. @Araris Valerian is there a reason you moved onto xino? My impression was it was to stop a tie, but for all your commentary about explaining things earlier, you didn't explain your vote on a flipped Elim.

When conq makes his vote the votecount went from

xino (3): Mat, Shining, Araris
Mat (1): Kas
Stick (1): JNV
Araris (1): Stick
Kasimir (1): xino
TUN (1): Conq

to

xino (4): Mat, Shining, Araris, Conq
Mat (1): Kas
Stick (1): JNV
Araris (1): Stick
Kasimir (1): xino

Which was the least influential vote, ignoring both my an matrim's votes made later (when i was unaware of the votecount, and I assume he was too, at a level).

Summary?
Mat, Me, and Araris are the most likely villagers on the Xino train. Conq is the most likely Elim, and Shining is a second choice if there has to be an Elim on the train.

ABOUT XINO'S POSTS

that Xino's last post of the cycle was originally exactly:

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

Mat

Which is what prompted me and mat to move back onto Xino, and then explains mat's post after that

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

xino

Edit: Lol

edit 2: wait he changed to Kas 

nvm too late, no clue what to make of that anyway

Reminder to players that if you make an edit always make an edit note, not just rewrite over an old message. 

The last minute change to Kas does make me think that Kas is more likely to be an Elim.

I'm getting distracted while working on a third thing so I'm just gonna post this now and come back later

[Stick.]

Heh, that's the kill role. I feel good about this considering my demise in LG86. Though actually that was arguably way worse. But it's the small things yk yk.

I actually wouldn't be too quick to clear anybody off that vote (though I've yet to properly read that EoD). I'll be back with some clearer points soon.

[Kasimir]

Quote

It looks as if you're throwing out ideas and waiting for people to make a case you can agree with, instead of making a case for why the names go in orange at all, and yes I do think that looks opportunistic as it fits perfectly with your own definition.

So, response to @Matrim's Dice

No, I'm throwing out ideas to see who bites. Funny that you think you're the only player allowed to do that. I explicitly lampshaded this when I alluded to Drake and Maili - when there is an already-existing train, and I indicated my willingness to join it, and also separately indicated what bugged me about Conq and Wiz. I like train negotiations - I like knowing who is so invested in a train they want to persuade me onto it, and who votes for a player but isn't committed enough. I think that's handy info in light of one of three flips: mine (for anyone not me), the other player,

Quote

I don't think it's bold at all. In the last QF, you define opportunism as the following: (pulled from here and here)

Ok, but that's my definition of opportunism. Do you think my definition is correct? I am applying it to reading you in the QF. I sure as hell don't think my own vote is opportunistic, because I'm aware of what my vote willingness is motivated by. I also explicitly listed what I thought was weird about Conq and added what I thought was odd about Wiz after being asked by Stick. It's not my problem that I take time to frame my thoughts and posted somewhat after you. In light of that, you claiming in a one-liner that a non-vote is opportunistic is bold.

Quote

I made a point looking at e!you, and you immediately quoted it with a vote on me. So I think, yes, it can be called retaliation unless there was an ulterior motive  

So suddenly your definitions become the ones in operation? Because retaliation votes need to follow a vote. Suddenly motivation for the vote doesn't matter, just what the vote looks like? Ok, sure.

But sure, y'all can go ahead and kill me if you want because I'm not really into this game for reasons I don't want to talk about. I think it's healthy for people to kill me when I'm disengaged from a game and to discover it is possible for me to be disengaged for RL reasons and also Village. I CBA to ask for a pinch-hitter.

[Araris Valerian]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

I find this interesting, because I previously expected to find that the Araris movement onto Xino was for self preservation, but that's not the case, obviously, because at the time when Araris voted on Xino, Araris himself only had one vote. @Araris Valerian is there a reason you moved onto xino? My impression was it was to stop a tie, but for all your commentary about explaining things earlier, you didn't explain your vote on a flipped Elim.

Yeah, that was to stop a tie. I got the rollover time wrong, and thought I only had a few seconds to break the tie. There wasn’t really a whole lot of reasoning behind it except just wanting someone to die, and I was slightly biased away from Mat.

[Turtle]

okokok shoot I’m here now and gonna start reading through the threads

my cat had fleas and we had to take him to the vet and I just sorta forgot abt this

[Shining Silhouette]

Well, I'm glad I didn't change my vote.

Meant to check later in thread to see if there were any developments or if people had asked me to change but I forgot and went to bed :P.

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

Not only that, but when Shining popped in later, at a time when Xino had been tied with Mat and Stick, they didn't take their vote off, even though it was a poke vote and would have been normal to change.

Well, at least last game, I changed votes several times C1 and thought a little bit of stability might be nice this game. If people haven't noticed, I'm a pretty chaotic player cause I'm still figuring my style out.

The reason I didn't change was because the votes were tied and I figured that people with more time would cast their votes in the right places- if they decided to vote Xino, then the tie would give them the exe. Basically just left the decision up to the village 

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Shining Silhouette said:

The reason I didn't change was because the votes were tied and I figured that people with more time would cast their votes in the right places- if they decided to vote Xino, then the tie would give them the exe. Basically just left the decision up to the village 

Shining

[The Wandering Wizard]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Shining

It's night stick :P

[Stick.]

fjlsfklsd I realised...

What I'm getting off EoD is that illwei/Mat probably not e/e. Their xino vote timestamps are too close that I have trouble imagining they're teamed. But right as I'm typing this I'm thinking of LG74. But I think I'll shove the paranoia aside for now. Not e/e.

I don't see a reason to clear either of them though. @Matrim's Dice would you have tried to push harder for a Kas exe if there was more time in the turn, given xino's vote?

Conq, similarly, doesn't get cleared imo cuz I think that with half an hour left of the cycle the vote was more or less decided (barring last minute shenanigans) and in fact I agree with illwei in that can see Conq's vote as a distancing attempt. The only problem is, this was a kill role. It definitely makes a bus harder to swallow but there's the possibility that the elims have vote manip that they wanted to use to sway the votes in their favour. If this was the case, I'd feel better about illwei's and Mat's vote last-minute contributions.

Quote

 I know that 30 minutes is plenty of time to cause chaos.

Also, any last words, comments, questions, concerns, or accusations @xinoehp512?

That first line there seems particularly tailored to refute the argument that this could've been a distancing vote.

I don't know what to make of Kas just yet. Xino's vote definitely stands out.

Quote

 Basically just left the decision up to the village 

This has implications that are possibly very incriminating.

[Shining Silhouette]

22 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

This has implications that are possibly very incriminating.

I suppose you're right. The point is I was not confident in my ability to choose the right voting candidate, and so I kept my vote. Should I have taken my vote off Xino? Possibly. But since I had limited time I decided to just keep it where it was because my reasoning for a vote change would've probably been weak and torn apart by the village because my suspicions aren't too strong right now.

And if I just took my vote off and didn't put it on someone than if E!Xino I'm dead cause I'm suspected of helping a teammate.

[---]

The reason my and matrim's votes sre clearing is because of the timing. 

When xino made his vote on matrim it was 7:59, with rollover at 8. If matrim is an elim, then there would be no reason to be waiting at the end if the cycle and no reason to change your vote right away the moment you see the person you were voting trying to change.

[Araris Valerian]

I think Mat comes out looking the best from last turn, since IMO the train on me was going to dissolve and Mat had indicated opposition to it already. Thus Mat’s vote switch onto Xino put Xino into the spotlight for EOD switches, including the ones off of me. It’s hard to say about the others, since all the side trains having just 1 vote meant that vote manip would be pointless, and to stop a tie, 3 opposing votes would need to be generated. So I agree with Illwei that Conq could easily be an elim after my own heart, but I don’t think Illwei herself looks any better or worse from this.

e!Shining probably would have just retracted from Xino and voted for Stick or Mat. That’s a pretty safe play until a flip on Xino happens later (which isn’t guaranteed), and it saves the elim kill role for minimum an extra turn.

I think [JNV, Kas, Conq, Illwei] is a decent place to look next, in that order. Those are the Stick and Mat voters prior to the tie being broken, plus Conq, and it seems to me that the elims would have taken action on their own to break the tie, but having votes in the tie would make that harder to do. Illwei is at the end because this feels like the elims have no thread control, which doesn’t match Illwei in general or her play this game.

[Stick.]

Okay wait I'm an idiot and skimmed way too quickly over your post there earlier but I understand now

xino voted Mat first and then deleted that text and voted Kas. I was assuming Mat's "Oh he's voting Kas now" meant that he'd got ninjad by xino.

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

When xino made his vote on matrim it was 7:59, with rollover at 8. If matrim is an elim, then there would be no reason to be waiting at the end if the cycle and no reason to change your vote right away the moment you see the person you were voting trying to change.

I see what you're saying, but I don't think it's that definitive, if that makes sense? A lot of the times elims on death row do things without reason

[---]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay wait I'm an idiot and skimmed way too quickly over your post there earlier but I understand now

Signal boosting yet again

XINO EDITED HIS LAST POST

It was originally a naked vote on Mat which is what prompted me to switch to xino. I was on squeezes because I didn't have much opinion about Xino other than his opener being performative. 

When he naked voted mat there it was practically an outing vote, and not knowing the votecount I immediately switched to Xino,  worrying that Mat was about to die instead of him. I can only assume Mat thought this too, though it could have been pure self preservation from him.

I think he might not have realized that I was not on Mat anymore,  and thought his vote would tie and save him.  When he realized it wouldn't, he swapped to Kas, which Mat was on and there was potential for me to swap to. I might even have swapped if i didn't see the Mat vote first.  

It's not really relevant in the long run but i think it's important people see it right now because the fact that xino voted Mat first and not Kas means that Mat is town

 If Mat was an elim then xino would have voted Kas first and not Mat, because he would have known that was the most likely to survive, with Mat and I already having engaged about my thoughts on kas' alignment.  

@Araris Valerian

The point is above but I'll address it again because it's a direct response to you saying I'm no more or less cleared off of this: 

Xino voted Mat at 7:59 and I switched to xino. If I was an elim I had already opened up the option to switch to Kas at eod, and instead I voted Shqueeves. If I had voted Kas then Xino would have been able to make a last minute switch and save himself. 

Before you say that this would have been incriminating, it wouldn't really, and if anything Mat would have also been incriminate, giving me room, and also an extra kill for my faction. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian]

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Before you say that this would have been incriminating, it wouldn't really, and if anything Mat would have also been incriminate, giving me room, and also an extra kill for my faction. 

Under normal circumstances, I’d agree. But there doesn’t seem to be much reason (IMO) for v!you to create a tie, deliberately denying the village info in exchange for saving someone that you had no good reason to trust. Basically, the “tie=no death” rule means I would have gone hard after anyone that switched things up to cause a tie. I wouldn’t even have done a self-preservation vote if it would have caused a tie (and still won’t). You’re right that this would have made Mat look worse and you’d get an extra kill, but I’m not sure the numbers work out for that to be worthwhile. If anything, take pride in the fact that I think elim!you is competent enough to have this in your playbook.

My understanding of Mat’s vote on Kas was that it was bait for Xino, but maybe I’m misreading that.

[Mat]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Funny that you think you're the only player allowed to do that.

Fair :P.

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ok, but that's my definition of opportunism. Do you think my definition is correct? I am applying it to reading you in the QF.

I think it's a good definition. I was evil in the QF, after all, and you weren't wrong about my motives there being somewhat intentionally opportunistic and I didn't hide it very well. It's true that you know your own motives but that's also what I said about myself in the QF :P. But all that means is this discussion won't get anywhere productive  The response has been noted, thanks.

Three elims with an extra kill makes sense as a distro to me-- that's 21% of the player list and 3/13 is 23% if we factor in the kill that way. Two seems low. I agree with the PoE of [Shining, Kas, JNV, Conq] to start with [Shqueeves, Turtle] as secondary-- IMO this xino post is enough for me to look past both Wiz and TUN. xino doesn't strike me as someone who'd focus on bussing, he'd probably want to keep his interactions limited to people he's not teamed with since he usually only posts a few times a cycle.

Of the first four, Shining/Conq fall into the bussing group and Kas/JNV don't, JNV because they voted Stick and Kas just wasn't around at EoD but he never really added any pressure to xino or mentioned that train at all iirc. I want to be reading Shining as village but having just elimmed with him I'm kind of having a hard time, the main thing that makes me pause is that he didn't want to bus me, like at all-- though the situations of my exe and xino's were obviously different. Could go either way for me.

Conq's vote I instinctively read more village, if I were e!Conq right there I probably wouldn't have bothered posting at all.

As for everyone else, Illwei and Araris I agree can be more or less cleared for their votes. I don't remember why I left Stick out of my PoEs but maybe I should put her back in? xD She's not teamed with JNV, at least. And then Shqueeves and Turtle are left over.

36 minutes ago, Illwei said:

When he naked voted mat there it was practically an outing vote, and not knowing the votecount I immediately switched to Xino,  worrying that Mat was about to die instead of him. I can only assume Mat thought this too, though it could have been pure self preservation from him.

It was a bit of both. I was happy to self preserve but I also abruptly became much less concerned about the xino train.

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

My understanding of Mat’s vote on Kas was that it was bait for Xino, but maybe I’m misreading that.

I wish it was, but no I legitimately just read the thread mood as pointing to v!xino and was trying to run away from that train to my next elim read :P.

[Conquestor]

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Conq, similarly, doesn't get cleared imo cuz I think that with half an hour left of the cycle the vote was more or less decided (barring last minute shenanigans) and in fact I agree with illwei in that can see Conq's vote as a distancing attempt. The only problem is, this was a kill role. It definitely makes a bus harder to swallow but there's the possibility that the elims have vote manip that they wanted to use to sway the votes in their favour. If this was the case, I'd feel better about illwei's and Mat's vote last-minute contributions.

That first line there seems particularly tailored to refute the argument that this could've been a distancing vote.

I'd first like to point out that I never made a defense for Xino at any point last cycle, although I guess you could argue that by the time I got on it might've been too late to try and save them. Yes, my vote could've been a distancing attempt, but if it was, it was a terrible one. Also, the reason I voted (and stated so in my vote post) was because of vote manipulation. My vote was the one that cancelled out the opportunity for Xino to be able to save himself and so a teammate would have to stick out their neck to try and save him. Also, the craziness in the last QF had me a bit concerned about what might happen after I got off, so I was attempting stabilization.

Also, Mat????????? 

(Before Mat Votes, the vote count)

Quote

• Araris Valerian (3): _Stick_, Illwei, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): Araris Valerian
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (1): Shining Silhouette

Quote

Here’s my problem: I don’t really think Wiz is elim, but unvoting here puts Araris further ahead then my conscious would like  I left my vote to see if anyone would bite on the train which didn’t really happen.

I guess switching my vote to a different train would keep the ratio the same, and out of the options I like xino

The new vote count after Araris and I vote on Xino but before Mat changes his vote:

• xinoehp512 (4): Shining Silhouette, Mat, Araris, Conq
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): JNV
• Shqueeves (1): Illwei

Quote

Nah this was too easy, I don’t feel this vote pattern from everyone results in e!xino

Ninja’d by Illwei—

Kas? Don’t really want to kill returning Shqueeves D1 after so few posts from them

edit: even if I did put them bottom of my list

If anyone made an attempt to try and save Xino, it was Mat. He voted on Xino when t looked like Araris was pretty well into the lead. It could've been a distancing vote for the future or whatever. The part that is most concerning, at least for me, is that Mat changed his vote from Xino to Kas, but then before the day ended, jumped back onto Xino, like he was trying to save face. I also find it extremely interesting that both Mat and Xino had their votes on Kas at the very EoD. Not only that, but apparently Xino first voted for Mat, but then very quickly edited his post to vote for Kas, like he was trying to distance Mat and himself, but then saw that Mat was voting for Kas and thought he might've been able to save himself. It's quite possible that mat has the blessing that let's you vote manip and so at that point, he would've been able to tie the two trains. Mat then would've decided, a smart decision, that outing himself that much wouldn't have been worth saving Xino for the extra kill. Now, I know that this argument runs under a bunch of assumptions, but I believe that the underlying idea of Mat's vote changing is condemning enough for me to want to lynch him next cycle. I'll be hard pressed to move off of this.

From the Xino train, I think it's safe to clear Araris as he was the one that really brought the train into prominence and wasn't in any danger and so didn't need to. Because of who the confirmed elim and my strong elim read voted for as a counter wagon, I'm strongly V leaning Kas.

I spent a bunch of time trying to read into the Araris votes, but that seems to be a dead end, Stick gets called out by Xino mid cycle and I'm leaning neutral on her. Illwei is v leaning in my book. Finally, Wizard voted on Araris for self preservation. I do have to say that TUN not coming back yesterday does make them more neutral in my book since they would've had multiple teammates on the line.

Anyways, I'm going to look further into last cycle, but essentially Mat is elim and Araris and Kas are vil.

P.S. Apparently Xino and Mat were on Wizard at the same time too! Ashbringer's vote count post here.

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

My vote was the one that cancelled out the opportunity for Xino to be able to save himself and so a teammate would have to stick out their neck to try and save him. Also, the craziness in the last QF had me a bit concerned about what might happen after I got off, so I was attempting stabilization.

That's not entirely true, since given the way vote manip works in this game, we would have known exactly who did the manipulation. Elims can't use vote manip stealthily in this gam unless the alternative train has several people on it.

I also think Mat should be considered the most cleared player at this point. He, rather than I, was responsible for Xino being an option.

[Mat]

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Also, Mat????????? 

As this was the response I was expecting going into tonight, your views are refreshing  But I'd take a look at Illwei's signal boost about how xino wouldn't have voted me and then Kas if I were elim, instead going straight for Kas. Unless you think I'm elim with Kas, and you said you read Kas as village, there's no reason for xino to vote me first if we're teamed.

Edit: You also seem to think I'd vote directly alongside my elim teammate, which isn't true. You also argue that I'd be smart enough to not out myself by basically arguing that I outed myself, and seem to think I was a lot more put together at EoD than I was :P. I was on mobile, c/ping red text like a maniac and trying to figure out what the heck was going on-- definitely not in a place to be thinking about distancing or ties.

I agree that my switch to Kas looks bad (I just think it looks funny, but that's from my PoV) but you have to look at xino's actions as well, and he voted me when he thought it'd cause his survival. When he saw me and Illwei both vote him, he could have switched to Kas as distancing, but it's also possible that he switched before he saw our votes because he thought he might have a better chance voting with me rather than against me.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Turtle]

22 hrs ago(my time)

• Araris Valerian (3): _Stick_, Illwei, The Wandering Wizard
• The Wandering Wizard (2): Matrim's Dice, xinoehp512
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): Araris Valerian
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor
• xinoehp512 (1): Shining Silhouette

19 hrs ago (my time)

• Matrims Dice (2): Kasimir, Illwei
• _Stick_ (2): Araris Valerian, JNV
• xinoehp512 (2): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• The Unknown Novel (1): Conquestor

17 hrs ago (my time)

• xinoehp512 (5): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Araris Valerian, Conquestor, Illwei
• Matrim's Dice (1): Kasimir
• _Stick_ (1): JNV
• Araris Valerian (1): _Stick_
• Kasimir (1): xinoehp512

+turtle, symph, and shqueef not being in here

anyone who’s name is not italicized had never voted or was voted by xino in these vcs. So people who could have been distancing are:

-me

-symph

-shqueeves

-stick

-jnv

-tuo

bolded are people who were just inactive. 
 

people who joined the xeno train last minute were:

-araris

-conq

-illwei

not to say any of this is suuuuper alignment indicative, it’s just helpful to have and gives yall info if I get nkd or lunched.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Turtle
Bad mobile formatting

[---]

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Under normal circumstances, I’d agree. But there doesn’t seem to be much reason (IMO) for v!you to create a tie, deliberately denying the village info in exchange for saving someone that you had no good reason to trust. Basically, the “tie=no death” rule means I would have gone hard after anyone that switched things up to cause a tie. 

What?  I'm talking specifically about the world where I'm village. Of course if I'm village I wouldn't tie, which is why I didn't. In a world where I am an elim however, I would. That's the point. And the fact that I /didnt/ increases the likelihood that I am a villager. That's not even my main point though. 

@Conquestor does make a good point about mat though, especially with how easy it felt to get xino over. But thus could also be attributed to what we've talked about already with people in different timezones who couldn't be in that 4 hour eod time frame as well as people like turtle or bookworm who weren't around at all. And yeah. The xino vote. Say it's distancing but leaving Mat alive until we absolutely need to kill him is my strategy right now. 

[Araris Valerian]

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Of course if I'm village I wouldn't tie, which is why I didn't. In a world where I am an elim however, I would. That's the point. And the fact that I /didnt/ increases the likelihood that I am a villager.

I'm saying elim!you wouldn't because it is obviously a bad play for v!you. So in the world where you make this play, I would push to vote you out after getting a Xino flip, or even possibly before, because of how bad ties are for the village.

[---]

Araris

Mat

TUN

Never kill araris, don't kill Mat, and tun is probably village.

[Mat]

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Never kill araris, don't kill Mat, and tun is probably village.

What do you think about xino being on Wiz for most of the turn?