Long Game 88: Blood and Bloody Ashes!

[Vorros]

Either way, I’d like to hear what he says. If it’s filler it should make itself clear I think. Especially if it’s static. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

In my back and forth with Conq, he rejected that idea, actually. He basically said that he didn’t consider the implications of his analysis as he was writing it, and he said that he did not especially suspect anyone on the list of 3 that I gave. So my peeve is more that Conq was doing analysis without considering how to help the village with it, which seems like an easy trap for a new/recently returning player to fall into. It could be that or an elim putting up filler.

I read through some older posts and I see what you mean, Araris. Here're some quotes

Quote

No, I don't necessarily think that trying to take thread control makes someone Elim or village right now. Before I posted my role analysis, I didn't realize all of that. I'm a post as I realize kind of person

Quote

Well, I've never actually done the whole "this is how I feel about everyone" before. Mostly because my reads aren't the best and I dislike being wrong. I feel like I would put too many people in the "I dunno" bucket. I guess it's a good tool though and is something I should get more used to doing. Here we go I guess...

Looking back, I see that Conq did quantify their data and said that they might put too many people in the middle, and so it makes sense that a couple people might be in weird places to avoid that. A couple of the low-posters were suspected a couple times; I think Illwei put me in the group of possible elims or something at some point, so it does make sense that others might follow suit. Anyway, there's totally the other scenario that Conq is vil and an Elim used Compulsion to cover for a Forsaken. 

29 minutes ago, Vorros said:

Either way, I’d like to hear what he says. If it’s filler it should make itself clear I think. Especially if it’s static. 

Though I agree with Vorros. I'd like some explanation or defense to see what the reasoning. Where do you stand, @Conquestor? Which scenario do you think caused the vote discrepancy? Is there a reason Wiz is in your neutral and other low posters are in Elim lean?

[Conquestor he/him]

I've never had so many @s in my life!  

I'm going to break down the questions into groups, so it will hopefully be more digestible!

First, what are my new thoughts and reads? I'll even try to give my best reasoning in as short as sentences as I can muster.

Vil Leaning Shining, Luckspren, Vorros, and Araris. I like Shinings posts because they genuinely seem curious and like they are trying to get to the bottom of things. The elims already know and it can be hard to fake. Luckspren has seemed to me to be looking for info, but is managing to walk somewhat of neutral ground. I'm keeping a close eye on her though because neutral isn't the best. Araris, well after going through almost half of last cycle in depth, their posts and responses seemed extremely genuine and I got a pretty good vil vibe from them. Vorros, I don't know. It seems like your village, but I'm worried about subtle manipulation, either way I think that your good at this game.

Neutral Leaning Wizard, and Devotary. Wizard is neutral for me because I liked his first set of posts, but then he stopped rather suddenly. I'm willing to assume that was due to outside circumstances. Devotary's posts just haven't popped out to me and the last minute vote could mean anything. It could be exactly what he was saying he was trying to do or an elim trying to get the scent off of himself completely. (He did lynch one of his own last game and won because of it.) 

Elim Leaning Sart, Mat, and Xino. I've already expressed my opinion on Sart, so I'll keep it there. As for Xino, I don't know... Maybe it's just lack of clarity from them. The post where they voted on me included a vote count, who they thought was good and bad, and a couple of sentences I am still trying to decode. Like I said in my look through of Illwei's posts, I really like Mat, especially since he seems to be a good judge of alignment. I am however wary at the same time because if he was on the other side, he could do some damage. What I'm most confused about is how little judgement he's given, as a whole, especially this cycle. While I was looking through last cycle's posts, I saw him give his pure judgement a few times and a weird defense when Illwei commented on him.

Quote

Conquestor. 

Something about their rules analysis posts feels off to me, though I can't quite put my finger on it.

Anyways, I'm pretty sure it's almost always better probability-wise to put in several.

From what I can see, there are not a whole lot of physical actions- the elim kill seems to be the primary one.

 

Second, what do I think about the vote theories that have been put out?

Simply, I dislike any scenario where a vil sees me as so good they try to save me using compulsion. I wouldn't do it on cycle one, especially since messing with votes makes it harder for the village to read into them and it has a low chance of actually succeeding. As for the theories that I believe to be most likely...

The Forsaken didn't do any vote manipulation but still voted. For me that means that the pool is <Sart, Xino>. I see this one as likely because they would assume ahead of time that we would think of this, or plant it in our heads. If I were the Forsaken and did this, I would talso do a weave, maybe trace, delve, or renew combined with making a pm. The pm might help convince someone that you couldn't be the Forsaken because you made a pm with them. Something along those lines.

The Forsaken used compulsion to cover their tracks and voted for someone of low priority. Well, what better way to stay hidden than to make it seem like your vote could only be in one of three places??? Did the Forsaken vote for Illwei, Me, or not vote at all. I think that more clever and subtle than all of that is to for someone of low priority and then move someone's vote over to your own insignificant corner of the map. This would mean that there is only one option for the Forsaken, Mat. 

Now that I think about it, Mat voted on neither one of us last cycle because:

Quote

-Sart is interesting to me because 99% of the time Sart just reads as elim to me, flat out, and I find myself... not reading Sart as elim. I liked his single post even if I disagreed with it. Xino on the other hand, well, I think that 'their rules analysis was off but I don't know why' is like literally the easiest reasoning to claim, ever.

-With the second half of the above point in mind, xino and Illwei are potential teammates because in that world, xino would be voting Illwei to make a competing train. Potentially could throw Wizard into the mix to complete the team since xino included Wiz in his bad bucket yet still voted Conq (and also the fun dynamic for Illwei's opening vote, which I could totally see being e/e :P) but I feel like that's getting ahead of myself.

Araris Luck
Vorros Sart
Conq Wiz Devo Shining
Illwei
xino

is probably where I'm at but I don't want to kill Illwei today.

xinoehp512

You didn't want to kill Illwei that cycle, fine, however just voting for Xino is almost too safe. Who was going to look back on it? Well, apparently me, but that's because I was thinking about the safest place to hide as the Forsaken, which I assumed was the no voters at first, but at it took was one look back at the votes. If this is the case, it was such a good plan that it didn't even come up as an option until now. Of course, that may be your teammates keeping it under wraps, but who's to say?

@Matrim's Dice

Edit:

What I meant in terms of my first most likely vote theory was that the Elims assumed ahead of time that we would think about comulsion and would use that to hide the forsaken, especially since they can suggest it themselves pretty simply that night.

Edited August 15, 2022 by Conquestor
Clarification

[Mat he/him]

Real tired and I don’t have time to dissect your argument or weigh into the missing vote debate (both things which I should do tomorrow) but… why did you tag me?

I see that your argument is that I’m the Forsaken, Because, or something, when from what I’ve seen that’s like just flat out untrue, there are many other options if we have one in the first place and also my GM PM. But either way idk what the tag is doing, there wasn’t a question posed to me or really anything I can argue against

idk maybe I’m just tired

Edit: also, if you’re elim reading xino too I don’t see what the problem is :P.

Also also sorry if my tone is meh here, blame aforementioned tiredness

Edited August 15, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Luckspren she/her]

Player Reads: 

Devo: Slight Elim Lean.   I don't like the last-minute vote, but I'm told it's a very Devo thing to do. It seems an unnecessary thing for E!Devo to have done, but that depends on what happened with the vote manip. Nothing solid. 

Conq: Village Lean.   I'm inclined to think elim because of all the attention, but his posts sound Village to me, and his 'why is everyone jumping on me' is the same as it was last game, when V!Conq was getting jumped on. 

Vorros: Village Lean.   Mostly gut. I'm a little nervous because they're an experienced player whom no one has experience with. 

Araris: Elim Lean.  I'm actually not sure where I'm getting this, aside from suspicion of the Conq voter pool. I'm not confident enough to vote. 

Sart: Slight Elim Lean.   Ditto Araris, and I'd like to see more activity. 

Xino: Elim Lean.   Votes with minimal reasoning, putting up reads with no reasoning- it looks like hiding to me. 

Matrim: Null.  Lowish activity and NAI posts. 

Shining: Village Lean.  I was recently new, confused, and village myself, and that's how their posts read to me. He's doing a much better job of being engaged and active than I did in my first game- keep it up!

Wizard: Slight Village Lean.  Because an elim would probably bother to be engaged with the game. 

[Vorros]

It seems like a lot of the doubt around my slot comes from the unfamiliarity with me. Personally, I rarely do meta dives but I can post links to some of my games from mafia universe if you want to take a look at how I play. 

[Conquestor he/him]

4 hours ago, Vorros said:

It seems like a lot of the doubt around my slot comes from the unfamiliarity with me. Personally, I rarely do meta dives but I can post links to some of my games from mafia universe if you want to take a look at how I play. 

I personally don't think that it's necessary, but it may help. You have seemed village overall to me. 

13 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Real tired and I don’t have time to dissect your argument or weigh into the missing vote debate (both things which I should do tomorrow) but… why did you tag me?

I see that your argument is that I’m the Forsaken, Because, or something, when from what I’ve seen that’s like just flat out untrue, there are many other options if we have one in the first place and also my GM PM. But either way idk what the tag is doing, there wasn’t a question posed to me or really anything I can argue against

idk maybe I’m just tired

@Matrim's Dice Ah, well sorry. I hate being tired. Also, I don't mean to antagonize, I need to work on the way I phrase things because when I talk about people in my posts, they seem to get agitated. I don't mean to do that, I swear!  The @ wasn't well placed, sorry about that. You will want to look at everything underneath the first quote. It pertains to you in one way or another. I would also like to get your personal thoughts on what's happened. 

[Luckspren she/her]

+Village on you two, I think. I personally haven't noticed any problems with your tone, Conquestor. 

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I personally don't think that it's necessary, but it may help. You have seemed village overall to me. 

@Matrim's Dice Ah, well sorry. I hate being tired. Also, I don't mean to antagonize, I need to work on the way I phrase things because when I talk about people in my posts, they seem to get agitated. I don't mean to do that, I swear!  The @ wasn't well placed, sorry about that. You will want to look at everything underneath the first quote. It pertains to you in one way or another. I would also like to get your personal thoughts on what's happened. 

You’re good, don’t worry about it. It’s hard to get me agitated and you were perfectly fine  

Alright thanks, I’ll look at that in a minute. Or thirty minutes. Something like that >> but soon.

[Mat he/him]

Double posting this if no one's posted by the time I'm done. (Megapost, not sorry )

Mat Replies to Conquestor:

18 hours ago, Conquestor said:

I really like Mat, especially since he seems to be a good judge of alignment. I am however wary at the same time because if he was on the other side, he could do some damage. What I'm most confused about is how little judgement he's given, as a whole, especially this cycle. While I was looking through last cycle's posts, I saw him give his pure judgement a few times and a weird defense when Illwei commented on him.

I don't think the first part of this can be used as an argument against me, or at least a valid one. Saying that it would be bad for the village if I were evil is a compliment to me (thanks! ) but not by itself anywhere near enough to actually vote me out, if you know what I mean, and I don't think that's what you're proposing at all. Just want to make it clear either way

Me seeming to be a good judge of alignment is a bit haha recently, as I've had a string of bad games, but we'll see.

As for the second part, yeah, sorry. I'm far busier than I have any right to be in these last weeks of summer, more so than I thought I would be. I guess I didn't feel like commenting on the Forsaken debate since mech isn't my forte and a lot of others did comment on it, and I'll weigh in here since that seems to be what a lot of the discussion this turn revolves around.

18 hours ago, Conquestor said:

The Forsaken used compulsion to cover their tracks and voted for someone of low priority. Well, what better way to stay hidden than to make it seem like your vote could only be in one of three places??? Did the Forsaken vote for Illwei, Me, or not vote at all. I think that more clever and subtle than all of that is to for someone of low priority and then move someone's vote over to your own insignificant corner of the map. This would mean that there is only one option for the Forsaken, Mat. 

This to me looks like you're getting ahead of yourself-- yes, if that's what the Forsaken did then I'm the Forsaken but there's no evidence towards it being true. You just decided it was the most likely option for some reason, when there's many other explanations. And like, I know that this isn't what happened, so :P. Basically everything you have against me is all hypothetical, and therefore not grounds for a push. (Which I realize you're not pushing me, but)

---

Mat Finally Gets to the VC:

I don't think options where it has to be Compulsion that changed the vote should be considered first, since the weave has a 40% success rate. There are other options to me that make more sense and don't require chance. Never mind, figured out that the Forsaken could have just used Compulsion. Nvm.

...Wait, does that mean that a Forsaken can just use Lightning every night? I guess only if they have the correct stats. Which they probably don't for balance reasons. Okay.

One thing that I find interesting is that if the Forsaken voted Illwei and the Amyrlin moved a vote from Conq to Illwei, we'd get the result we see. This to me implies an e!Amyrlin, otherwise it's just a lucky elim team. I think we should keep an eye out for VCs that look similar to this one to try to find a pattern.

I also think making cross-reference charts or just keeping track of the trains in another way could be useful- if a vote disappears off a train with (Me, Shining, Wiz) and (Wiz, Devo, Shining) and (Wiz, Devo, Vorros) then we can safely accuse Wiz of being the Forsaken. With caveats because like I doubt the elims will be that obvious, but you know what I mean. I think it's possible to piece some things together.

However- I think it was Devotary who pointed out that there's no way to tell the difference between any of the options that could have happened, and I completely agree. We simply do not have enough information to come to any conclusions, which is why I suggested the cross-reference charts or something of the like. After D2's VC, we can reconvene and maybe try to spot a pattern. But for now, you could point a finger at virtually anyone and call them a Forsaken for this and this or that and that.

---

Mat's Reads:

xinoehp512- xino has one post, right? The one that I didn't like because of the ease of the vote he chose. I think he's normally more active, too, but so am I :P. Still a leaning elim read, albeit a less solid one now that I know Illwei's village and I'm undecided on Conq. I think e!Conq erases this read.
Conqestor- As I mentioned, undecided. I think a lot of his effort has been genuine, but I put forth genuine effort as elim so I'll have to decide which effort this is. I think that e!Conq makes last cycle more interesting, and my next post will be a deep dive into both worlds (of Conq's alignment) to parse out who I think is elim for each, and maybe become more sure about Conq in the process. I double checked his reads list from last turn and his list from this turn and it checks out progression-wise, I think he has some strange takes but that's not suspicious by itself. I think if I voted here tomorrow it'd be for info. Null, leaning village.
Araris Valerian- I see no reason to have changed this read, Mild village.
The Wandering Wizard- Wiz accrued some suspicion then virtually dropped off the face of the earth, which I think is an elimish reaction even if I lean v on their earlier posts by themselves. I will say though I think him just posting VCs at the end of last cycle and not voting is weird, just posting VCs is a way to look like you're contributing and I'd have thought that someone so involved with the votes would vote themselves. I think if the Forsaken just didn't vote, it's Wiz. Slight elim.
Devotary of Spontaneity- Her last second vote is only interesting if Conq is evil, and I don't know how to consider her in a world where the elims manipped away from e!Conq. I feel like it'd have been pointless to draw direct connections between a teammate when manip is happening anyway, but I think at the very least her pointing out that looking at the VC too close isn't helpful is villagery. Null, I need more time to read Devo, but leaning village.
Vorros- I'm just copying Luckspren's read here, I think Vorros has been villagery but I'm paranoid. I like that he offered to supply games for a meta check, I'm also not super interested in actually doing that check but idk if an elim would have bothered to ask. Slight village.
Shining Silhouette- I'm just copying Conq's read this time, but I agree that Shining's efforts have seemed villagery and that e!them in their first game probably wouldn't have done a full VC dive. Slight village.
Sart- The fact that I'm reading Sart as different than usual worries me on its own since I always read Sart as evil and I'm really not, but I also think that I've played with e!Sart more than v!Sart. But I don't see a super huge problem with his opener or any of the subsequent posts he's made. Leaning village.
Luckspren- Proving to be very competent, enough so that I can't clear them for doing a VC analysis or anything like that. I do read them village, but this slot legitimately makes me more nervous than any other and I'll be paying close attention to progression and votes from here on out. Good job  Still a solid slight village though.

One of my village reads is wrong, obviously. Unless it's Wiz/xino as a two elim team Forsaken/Amyrlin...  That'd be interesting. But ofc I don't expect to solve the game N1 so whatever, I'll figure it out hopefully.

Also- Shining is never elim with Sart, they ninja'd each other doing the same VC analysis. I don't think that was a planned scheme, like at all :P.

Pretty Tier List TL;DR:

Araris
Shining, Luckspren, Vorros
Sart
Devo, Conquestor
xino
Wiz

@ me for questions. The post looking at the worlds of e!Conq and v!Conq will either come right before rollover or tomorrow morning, knowing me it'll probably be the latter. If I'm alive, which I should be since I died early last game  

Edited August 16, 2022 by Matrim's Dice
Posted early

[Vorros]

That’s actually an interesting proposition. If the elim team has especially powerful vote manipulation, it could be that we’re looking at a 2 elim team since we’d have to rely more on power roles to catch them instead of voting. I think it was Conq or Devotary that did the math that a Forsaken Amyrlin team could swing a 5-2 vc their way. That would make voting nearly impossible to end someone (it would p much out them tho). 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 hour ago, Vorros said:

That’s actually an interesting proposition. If the elim team has especially powerful vote manipulation, it could be that we’re looking at a 2 elim team since we’d have to rely more on power roles to catch them instead of voting. I think it was Conq or Devotary that did the math that a Forsaken Amyrlin team could swing a 5-2 vc their way. That would make voting nearly impossible to end someone (it would p much out them tho). 

This makes sense to me. I think an Amyrlin elim could be possible, though if there are only two elims, maybe not probable. A two elim team without the Amyrlin doesn't seem as op; I feel like three seems more balanced (though what do I know about distro, this is my first game). 

I think either way we're safer betting on three elims so we don't get caught off guard. Anyway, we still have either 7-3 odds or 8-2 odds depending on how you look at it which isn't too bad.

21 hours ago, Conquestor said:

The Forsaken used compulsion to cover their tracks and voted for someone of low priority. Well, what better way to stay hidden than to make it seem like your vote could only be in one of three places??? Did the Forsaken vote for Illwei, Me, or not vote at all. I think that more clever and subtle than all of that is to for someone of low priority and then move someone's vote over to your own insignificant corner of the map. This would mean that there is only one option for the Forsaken, Mat. 

I agree with Mat here. I feel though we should discuss which hypothetical is most likely, we shouldn't use that information to say that a certain player must be an elim. You're entitled to your own opinions and you do go on to provide some arguments, but saying that there is only one option for the Forsaken at this point just doesn't make much sense.

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Araris Valerian- I see no reason to have changed this read, Mild village.
The Wandering Wizard- Wiz accrued some suspicion then virtually dropped off the face of the earth, which I think is an elimish reaction even if I lean v on their earlier posts by themselves. I will say though I think him just posting VCs at the end of last cycle and not voting is weird, just posting VCs is a way to look like you're contributing and I'd have thought that someone so involved with the votes would vote themselves. I think if the Forsaken just didn't vote, it's Wiz. Slight elim.

Could you explain your reasoning for Araris being mild Vil? I don't necessarily disagree, but I'd like to hear what you think.

I also think it's strange that Wiz just vanished. Where do you stand, @The Wandering Wizard?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Just under 45 minutes remaining, get your actions in!

[Mat he/him]

26 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

This makes sense to me. I think an Amyrlin elim could be possible, though if there are only two elims, maybe not probable. A two elim team without the Amyrlin doesn't seem as op; I feel like three seems more balanced (though what do I know about distro, this is my first game). 

I think either way we're safer betting on three elims so we don't get caught off guard. Anyway, we still have either 7-3 odds or 8-2 odds depending on how you look at it which isn't too bad.

I think it’s two with Amyrlin and three without if anything. I do think it’s funny that Vorros said Devo or Conq pointed out the math behind a Forsaken/Amyrlin duo since Devo and Conq being the Amyrlin and Forsaken elim team is surprisingly possible considering just Devo’s vote. Which isn’t a trustworthy point on its own but if that’s what it turns out to be I reserve the right to claim brownie points :P.

26 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Could you explain your reasoning for Araris being mild Vil? I don't necessarily disagree, but I'd like to hear what you think.

I mean, it has a lot to do with his proddings and questions— maybe they deserve a second look but for me right now are good enough to earn him a spot in my ‘looks like he’s trying to solve’ tier. Like the kinds of things he’s posting are the kinds of things I’d expect a villager with a sharp mind to be posting.

The fact that he didn’t vote Illwei doesn’t hurt either, I have to say :P.

Edit: And yeah I won’t be getting to that Conq post before the turn ends lol I haven’t even started it

Edited August 16, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Elandera she/her]

I believe the cycle ended an hour ago. I'll be locking the thread. TUN should be around shortly for rollover.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

LG88 Day Two: Fights and Escapes

Writeup to come maybe.

(%)

The Wandering Wizard was killed! He was a Warder of the White Tower.

Things to Note:

• The player with the most votes must have at least two to get exed.

• PMs are an action! Do not send any, I will be sending them for you.

• As you may have assumed, Blademasters cannot survive the exe.

• This cycle will end on August 17th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Rules doc:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mrx-Nslg3G5WpPPOtz83V79PSAK-znQF5_LzUtTOHiA/edit?usp=drivesdk

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @xinoehp512
2. @Conquestor Anenti
3. @Araris Valerian Arenta
4. The Wandering Wizard Warder 
5. @Devotary of Spontaneity Diesis
6. @Matrim's Dice Maytrim Sedai 
7. @Vorros Verin Sedai
8. Illwei Blademaster 
9. @Shining Silhouette
10. @Sart
11. @Luckspren Lelea Sedai

My apologies for the overlong rollover.

Edited August 16, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[Luckspren she/her]

Well... that's odd.

Takes care of the CC for us. Players who've been around longer, can you tell me if NKing inactives is normal? Doesn't seem like a profitable elim strat. 

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Luckspren said:

Well... that's odd.

Takes care of the CC for us. Players who've been around longer, can you tell me if NKing inactives is normal? Doesn't seem like a profitable elim strat. 

Well, that's what is known as the 'low info kill' :P. It also was probably where I would have started voting today which is excellent >>

Conq post starting now, once again will double post if no one else has before I'm done.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Vorros]

Wizard is a super odd kill. It makes me wonder if we’ve been pocketed by a deep elim or if we are on track and they didn’t want to dig their own grave with an obvious kill. 

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

12 minutes ago, Vorros said:

It makes me wonder if we’ve been pocketed by a deep elim or if we are on track and they didn’t want to dig their own grave with an obvious kill. 

Since Wiz was a Warder, one possibility is that he was partnered with the Forsaken and they removed him to cover their tracks. But that doesn't seem very likely. I'm mostly confused about this turn of events.

[Mat he/him]

9 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Since Wiz was a Warder, one possibility is that he was partnered with the Forsaken and they removed him to cover their tracks. But that doesn't seem very likely. I'm mostly confused about this turn of events.

Ha I definitely didn’t miss that they were a Warder :P. I don’t think that’s likely personally, there’d be a 50% chance of their own death, no? I guess Wiz could have been protecting the Forsaken?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ha I definitely didn’t miss that they were a Warder :P. I don’t think that’s likely personally, there’d be a 50% chance of their own death, no? I guess Wiz could have been protecting the Forsaken?

Wait actually never mind lol you're right. I totally forgot about that haha

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ha I definitely didn’t miss that they were a Warder :P. I don’t think that’s likely personally, there’d be a 50% chance of their own death, no? I guess Wiz could have been protecting the Forsaken?

Incorrect, only Warders have the chance to die.

[Mat he/him]

I suppose it's possible, then. Though I don't see why the elims would kill off a protection every other cycle unless inactive Wiz was somehow on to them :P.

Anyway- here is the promised post, looking at the both possible worlds of Conq and my conclusions of each.

Conq Post:

In the world of Conquestor-

Spoiler

• Devo, obviously, looks quite bad (last minute vote on Illwei)
   
• We can likely ascribe the manip to the Forsaken regardless of Devo's alignment.|
   
• Sart's vote I don't think is clearing, but leans v on him. It's entirely possible that he placed it as an early bus and then just forgot.
   
• Luck looks teamed with Conq for her early Illwei vote, but saying 'maybe Conq' and then never reconsidering.
   
• I think xino's vote definitely looks good, and at the very least there wouldn't be any more than one elim in [Sart, xino]
   
• Vorros' Illwei vote doesn't look good, coming at a time when Conq starts getting more attention. It effectively evens up the trains. I'd pair him with Luckspren but idk if both elims would be on the countertrain. Vorros and Luck do have some interactions that could easily be read as partnered, though. In a way they're almost too partnered to be partnered.
   
• Araris becomes virtually clear imo, for voting Conq when he does.
   
• Eh, forget what I said about Luck. Her post summarizing the Conq case doesn't read e/e to me at all and not even e, that alone makes me village read her. Even if it is a defense of Conq, it's a real complicated one, and one prompted by Conq. I could see that happening but I doubt it.
   
• Vorros' post where he quotes Luck's case summary and just agrees with it seems like it could be partnered though. Seems like a pointless comment, unless he's worried about Conq dying.
   
• I don't think Conq puts more than one elim in his village tier, so that further rules out Luck/Vorros being e/e with Conq. I think his other teammate is more likely found in his null tier, but could be in the elim one. If it's the former, I think it's Devo, and if it's the latter, I think it's Sart.

In this world, I believe the most likely elim team consists of Conquestor, Devotary, and Vorros. Devotary could be substituted with Sart without too much trouble. I think Araris is cleared, and I think Luck looks village. xino looks villagery as well.

 

In the world of Conquestor-

Spoiler

• Sart's vote looks much worse in this scenario. It'd be just jumping onto the easiest candidate he could think of. Still think tone wise Sart seems village here though.
   
• xino's vote looks bad here, for the same reason as Sart. But I don't think Sart and xino are teammates here.
   
• To me, no chance Luck makes that Conq post if he's village and she's not. Just, no chance :P.
   
• Generally less to go off of here, I probably could look closer but I'm running out of time
   
• Devo's vote is null here I think
   
• Broadly looking at the VC, I'd say there's probably one elim on both main trains. I'd say that was xino on the Conq train, and honestly it's a tossup between Devo and Vorros for the Illwei train. Maybe both.

In this world, I think it's difficult to nail down a team but I think only one of [Sart, xino] is elim and that 1-2 Illwei voters are elim, likely out of [Vorros, Devo]. I think it's notable how both Vorros and Devo show up as candidates in both worlds but I don't really know what to do with that info.

I think I could case Vorros pretty easily but that'll have to wait until later today.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Before I do any analysis, I'm gonna point out that I'm a bit miffed right now, since someone physically blocked me during the Night.