Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Coral Swan]

8 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

We all did. It's in one of the Tineye messages.

So it is. Hadn't read those yet.

7 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

For supposedly assuming magenta is new, they're doing a lot of interesting things: PMing lots of people apparently, Nesting quotes, providing votecounts. Things surrounding the survival aren't feeling right to me, but I don't see how on an elim team they would choose to protect magenta. if that is the case, then something must be interesting about that team composition.

That's definitely fair, and I don't want people to get stuck on the part of my village read from last cycle about them being 'new'. That only added to the already existing behavioral read I was getting, tone and reasoning wise. I'm with Beagle in believing their Thug claim regardless of alignment; them having being Lurched is super random whether they were Lurched by a villager or an elim. I can't imagine that Alb, on the elim team, was the elim they thought was most likely to be attacked. We'd have to be doing exceptionally bad for that to be the case. And I can't really see anyone Lurching v!Alb that isn't me, and I didn't do it, so...  They could be a Lurcher themselves, though.

I maintain my village read on Albatross, though perhaps it's a bit less than it was before. I understand the odd profile view of their play so far but my mind has a hard time seeing it as anything but genuine.

I don't think the elims have a Coinshot unless the village does as well. That doesn't seem right to me. With only one kill, I'm assuming that Coinshot is a villager. A Thug does make sense for the elim team, but a Thug definitely makes sense for the village.

Here's who I'm fine with killing today- note that this isn't identical to my reads list because it isn't a reads list (though it is close).

Do Not Kill Today: Meerkat, Hyena, Beagle, Scorpion, Axolotl, Elephant

Kill If You Want To (But I Won't Help): Albatross, Dingo, Chameleon, Vulture, Falcon, Penguin, Mouse

Kill If You Want To (And I Might Help): Rhinoceros/Toucan/Dragonfly, Octopus, Zebra, Flamingo, Ostrich

I Will Help: Gorilla, Iguana, Heron

I wish there was a middle tier in between the 'Kill If You Want To's for just Penguin but I'm choosing to do without

Praise the Ja!

[Saffron Iguana]

7 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

For supposedly assuming magenta is new, they're doing a lot of interesting things: PMing lots of people apparently, Nesting quotes, providing votecounts. 

Sorry, I've got the hiccups. You should (hic) be a proud lumberjack (hic), because I like your log(ic). They've shown enough experience or coaching that I dislike clearing them for naivety. 

I don't recommend basing any votes on that though. Asking them to disprove your theory is unfair because it would have to involve revealing their identity. 

1 hour ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Checking in to keep ya'll informed I ended up falling asleep on my keyboard last night while isolating Turquoise and lost my progress to the refresh monster

Are you a fugitive, because you deserve a-rest. Stop doing that. 

2 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Emerald Falcon: The fact that they made this odd mistake of bringing up PMs that don't exist reads extremely village to me, I can't imagine an elim making a slip this blatant. 

They might have mistook a doc conversation with Swan for a PM. 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

9 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

The main positive read I have seen of Albatross is from Coral Swan. If you can show me where the other positive impressions come from, I'd appreciate it as I'm still catching up writing up my thoughts on page 3 (!) of D1 and I have a long way to go. 

I skimmed through the thread and it seems that there's a lack of negative views on them, which I'd equated to positive impressions. Tbf I was talking off the top of my head.  

11 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Furthermore, you are voting on Albatross - so you think Albatross is Evil. But I agree with Albatross's tactics, so I guess this commits you to the claim I'm Evil too because it seems your current basis for your vote is because Albatross thought it was okay to claim.

No the basis of my vote is their behaviour, the claim was just a solidifying factor for my vote because a newbie act coupled with a role claim does warrant a vote imo. I say agree to disagree on whether it's the best move for a villager to be claiming under these circumstances because I atm don't really think albatross is a villager so I don't see the point in discussing all that. Also I missed the edit on your previous post before so I'll address that now: I am in favour of fake-claiming and I've talked about the inherent IKYK nature of fake-claims. The reason this particular claim's different to me is because, in my head, it's being played under the pretense of a naive newbie player. Again, I am not completely sold on my own theory because I very much understand how far-fetched it is.

[Salmon Meerkat]

2 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

No the basis of my vote is their behaviour, the claim was just a solidifying factor for my vote because a newbie act coupled with a role claim does warrant a vote imo. I say agree to disagree on whether it's the best move for a villager to be claiming under these circumstances because I atm don't really think albatross is a villager so I don't see the point in discussing all that. Also I missed the edit on your previous post before so I'll address that now: I am in favour of fake-claiming and I've talked about the inherent IKYK nature of fake-claims. The reason this particular claim's different to me is because, in my head, it's being played under the pretense of a naive newbie player. Again, I am not completely sold on my own theory because I very much understand how far-fetched it is.

Okay, I can see that, and I'm certainly not thrilled by Albatross's behaviour profile entirely separate from this claim business. I get that Coral Swan gets the genuine read, and I...genuinely don't. I agree it could be lingering paranoia from LG5 but I'm going through the thread again so I will see that eventually. You didn't need my permission but carry on anyway, I'm going back to analysis  

[Coral Swan]

11 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

They might have mistook a doc conversation with Swan for a PM. 

Lol. No. Elims don't have PMs with each other so there'd be nothing to confuse there, try again.

3 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Okay, I can see that, and I'm certainly not thrilled by Albatross's behaviour profile entirely separate from this claim business. I get that Coral Swan gets the genuine read, and I...genuinely don't. I agree it could be lingering paranoia from LG5 but I'm going through the thread again so I will see that eventually. You didn't need my permission but carry on anyway, I'm going back to analysis  

Yeah. That's why they're in my 'Kill If You Want To (But I Won't Help)' instead of 'Do Not Kill'. I don't want to get stuck in a village tunnel though so I do plan on ISOing Alb later.

Praise the Ja!

Edited January 7, 2022 by Coral Swan

[Amber Vulture]

Pending further analysis, I expect I'll place my vote on Saffron Iguana, as per my post during the night cycle.

I intend to look more closely at @Emerald Falcon, primarily for their analysis on Mauve Crocodile, which I found to read more like a lynch manifesto than an attempt to examine their actions, but also because I'd still like to understand whatever was going on with their claim of non-existent PMs with Mauve Crocodile and Coral Swan.

I think of relevance to both, (and to consideration of whether they were attacked by a village or an eliminator coinshot) is an analysis of Magenta Albatross. As before, I attach my D1 notes on them:

Cycle	Post	Summary	Vote	Retractions	Thoughts	AI (perceived)	Notable connections
D1	4	Says "looked differently in a past life". Replies to Saffron Iguana, suggesting that if LG74 distro holds, perhaps no village seekers.	N/A	N/A	Played at least one anon game before. Engaging with assumption of LG74 distribution without questioning it - why?	NAI	Reply to Saffron Iguana
D1	10	RP. Asks what rules mean by role madness. Gives self answer - that not everyone has a role. Suggests regardless that all spiked have a role.	N/A	N/A	Genuine question? Why assumption of spiked roles? Inexperience, or desire to appear so?	Unsure	None
D1	73	Replies to Saffron Iguana. Admits to having asked players for roles in PMs. Provides updated vote counts. Suggests they have mild village reads on those who didn't want to role trade in PMs. Says they don't know who to vote for	N/A	N/A	I think acknowledging having been phishing is NAI. Possibly leaning elim - felt better to come into open about it first? Clearly engaged with game if Pming, doesn't give reads from PMs despite claiming they have them. Dislike their reluctance to vote.	Mild evil	Replies to Saffron Iguana, claims to have PMd multiple players
D1	206	Provides vote count, votes on Saffron Iguana, tying them with Turquoise Gorilla and Mauve Crocodile. Notes Saffron Iguana could self save. Thinks tie will produce information	Saffron Iguana	N/A	Unlikely to be on a team with Saffron Iguana or Turquoise Gorilla. Village vibes from information reasoning of the vote	Mild village	Votes for Saffron Iguana
D1	210	Says they commented on Saffron Iguana in particular because they voted on Saffron Iguana	N/A	N/A	Fair enough	NAI	None
D1	216	Asks Saffron Iguana why they didn't vote to save themselves, edits it following second Iguana post	N/A	N/A	None	NAI	Replies to Saffron Iguana

Magenta Albatross has a couple of posts I want to draw attention to.

As has been raised, there is the attempt to seem a newer player (#10, the question on role madness). I think there are three explanations for this:

1) Magenta Albatross is an eliminator, and wants to be seen as a new, inexperienced player;
2) Magenta Albatross is a villager, but wants to be seen as a new, inexperienced player;
3) Magenta Albatross genuinely doesn't know what role madness is.

Addressing these in reverse:

3) As per D1 #4, Magenta Albatross has played at least one anonymous game before, along with LG74, with which they seem familiar. They are further comfortable enough with the concept of PM role trading to do so, and claims they want to tie the vote to produce information. I haven't been around the community recently, so don't know how often the term "role madness" is used presently, but it was a fairly basic part of the lexicon when I did play regularly. Whilst I'm willing to re-evaluate this should I be wrong about the frequency of the use of this term, I think this explanation is unlikely - it seems obvious to me that Magenta Albatross is not a new player.
2) I do not think we can entirely dismiss this out of hand, as I can see a villager wanting to take advantage of an anonymous game to play the game in a different way
1) Is the most likely explanation, I think. The advantages of being seen as inexperienced need not be restated.

Post #73 (here) gives me the largest reason to suspect they are an eliminator. In this post, they claim "they weren't thinking of telling people their role as letting the elims play minesweeper to find their key targets", reinforcing the claim of being a new player. I find it odd that they go on to ascribe village reads to the people they PMd for not engaging in role trading - claiming a village feeling on the grounds of an idea they claim to have just encountered feels wrong to me. I also find it odd that, despite claiming village reads, they don't give the identities of the players within this nebulous claim.

I would further note the last part of their post:

"I really don't have any ideas on who to vote for, I just know we'll need someone to have several more votes than the others to try to avoid vote manip but we still have a while before that really matters so I won't jump on anything yet."

This feels like an attempt to avoid having to give an opinion. Beyond this, I find the conviction that we should be trying to avoid vote manipulation deciding the lynch odd, and encouraging of a band wagon approach to this lynch.

It is particularly odd to me in light of their actions in post #206, here. In this post, they vote on Saffron Iguana, creating a three way tie, which they declare is interesting. Notable, they say "Vote manip could also shake things up and provide information or not", which is both an opinion I would not expect to see from a new player, and directly contradicts their earlier stated view.

I think I am largely convinced they are not a new player, and between #76 and #206 feel it more likely that they are an eliminator than a villager wanting the novelty of a different playstyle.

An eliminator Magenta Albatross has implications both on last cycle's final vote distribution, and I think on Saffron Iguana's own alignment.

As such, despite my view beginning this analysis, I'm going to vote on Magenta Albatross

[Coral Swan]

1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said:

As per D1 #4, Magenta Albatross has played at least one anonymous game before

Their Cosmetic Role is 'Past Lives', so I don't think this has the relevance you think it does.

Praise the Ja!

[Amber Vulture]

4 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Their Cosmetic Role is 'Past Lives', so I don't think this has the relevance you think it does.

Praise the Ja!

Much appreciated. I'll think further on this, but still see both contradictions within their posts, and between how they act and their claim to be a new player, irrespective of whether they have played a previous anonymous game.

[Charcoal Hyena]

Turquoise Gorilla

1. Opening Post: Cosmetic role RP. Comments on large number of players ("this time"), and seeds the question "what do you think is the village to elim distro?". NAI in isolation.
2. Second Post: 30 minutes later, gives their own answer to said question. Believes "6-7 elims; 6 if they have a Coinshot or Mistborn, 7 if there isn't. About once of each role in Village, give or take one or two. Likely one elim kill-role (Coinshot/Mistborn) and 2-3 other roles." Overall, I find this kind of content NAI, especially with how many other players were discussing this already.
3. Third Post: Quotes 6 people who answered their question (including their own post) and determines theirs is the best. Of the rest, they only comment on Saffron Iguana's for bringing up a past game, which I've already stated is not productive, from my point of view. Given how early it is in the turn still, I'm willing to give the benefit of a doubt, but so far I've yet to see Turqoise attempt to solve alignments.
4. Fourth Post: Replies "Hehe" to Pearl's Torquoise/Tortoise pun. Nothing else after an hour. Bleh.
5. Fifth Post: Three hours later, only asks for a Vote Count. At this point, Turquoise has not voted, which isn't surprising since they haven't expressed any significant thoughts on other players to suggest solving. Will continue this line of thought in the next line.
6. Sixth Post: A half-hour later, after Mauve provided the VC: "I think I'm going to join the Swan train. Mostly reading them as null, maybe mildly elim" (does not say why), then goes on to say "I really don't see the reason for most of the other trains; Chameleon and Crocodile seem village in PMs, and none of Hyena's posts stood out" (ouch!). I'm not a big fan of the PM reasoning since that could easily be faked via E/E, but at the very least, that's not the case for confirmed village Croc. Without more context for why they feel this way about said players, I don't really know what to glean from this. The fact that they're only now voting with 4 and a half hours before rollover makes it even more of a ???. Will need to see if they remain true to their reads.
7. Seventh Post: Coral Swan brings up the irony of Turquoise voting them while a null read when most of the votes on Coral are for voting for their null reads. Gorilla responds by saying that's not why they voted at least; is gut reading Coral elim and believes starting another train is futile due to how late it is. I'm now very curious WHO they would have voted for, if it weren't so late in the turn, and WHY they didn't do so sooner. While the reasoning for the vote is believably village, the timing of the vote leaves me Leaning Elim
8. Eighth Post: 2 hours and 20 minutes later (2 hours from turnover), they only post an updated vote count and mention how many votes there are). Does not even seem concerned by the fact they're now in the lead with 3 votes. No attempt to push anyone else suggests they either don't care about getting lynched (Village?) or they have access to vote manipulation + ally votes in the wings (could be V or E depending).
9. Ninth Post: 4 minutes prior to turnover, votes on the newest train, Saffron Iguana, to save themselves. Says they've read Iguana as null so far, and that they don't want Croc (their top village read) to die. Reasonable for a Villager, but again, I wonder why they didn't try to get votes off themselves and their top village read since their last post. Again, I see no real desire to solve the game while they're active enough to impact the execution last minute. Much like my read of Post #7, could either be a Follower village archetype or an opportunistic Elim. Due to how little they've interacted with Saffron up to this point, my previous E/E theory has less merit, and I am beginning to suspect they're a Soother themselves, which could explain their prior nonchalance.
10. Tenth Post (N1): Mostly NAI cosmetic role RP with minimal commentary on their top village reads death (*sobs* + "not a good development). Doesn't leave me feeling any better about the slot.
11. Eleventh Post: Responds to Saffron's @ regarding them ignoring the vote manipulation. Says they've been lacking the motivation to post, but feels both vote manipulations are elims, or perhaps 1:1. Acknowledges Saffron and them were the brunt of most suspicion and thus suspects elim vote manipulators would have reason to interfere regardless. Soother who doesn't want to implicate themselves? Whether or not that's true, my gut is leaning paranoid Villager here.
12. Twelfth Post: Last post responds to Emerald's question about Pearl, who was one of the early wagons. Only says their confused, which is ironic because that's exactly how I feel about this slot!

In conclusion: I really don't know, due to some contradictory gut reads + very minimal player interactions. I certainly feel better about Turquoise than I do Saffron, but that might be impacted by the comparable lack of engagement. @Turquoise Gorilla can you tell me who you would have voted for other than Swan, had "starting other trains" not been "futile"?

 

edit: I plan on looking at the votes against Turquoise next to see if that helps me understand them better, I.E. if anyone was really onto something or if it was a typical D1 low-hanging fruit wagon, which is my current impression.

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena

[Coral Swan]

1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said:

Much appreciated. I'll think further on this, but still see both contradictions within their posts, and between how they act and their claim to be a new player, irrespective of whether they have played a previous anonymous game.

I personally don't think their appearance of being new was intentional. Can you point me to where they claimed to be a new player? If that happened I definitely missed it. I'm mostly in agreement that they're not new but I don't agree that they purposefully were faking newness.

Praise the Ja!

[Amber Vulture]

5 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I personally don't think their appearance of being new was intentional. Can you point me to where they claimed to be a new player? If that happened I definitely missed it. I'm mostly in agreement that they're not new but I don't agree that they purposefully were faking newness.

Praise the Ja!

Apologies for the wording here - you're right that Magenta Albatross never explicitly claims to be a new player. As I noted above, however, I think their claimed absence of knowledge of what role madness is, and their claim that they hadn't considered why eliminators might seek role claims in PMs, are both implicit claims of newness to the game.

Beyond this, of lesser relevance, I have notes on both Charcoal Hyena and Amethyst Scorpion discussing them as new, and so infer that Magenta Albatross was likely aware that  this perception existed, but chose not to address it.

[Charcoal Hyena]

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

I don't think the elims have a Coinshot unless the village does as well. That doesn't seem right to me. With only one kill, I'm assuming that Coinshot is a villager. A Thug does make sense for the elim team, but a Thug definitely makes sense for the village.

You've lost me a bit here. While I definitely agree the existence of an e!Coinshot increases the odds of a v!Coinshot, it also could be justified by a large number of Village Thugs and Lurchers. My real hang-up is "With only one kill, I'm assuming that Coinshot is a villager." Why? I can think of many reasons for a v!Coinshot to refrain from killing on N1, but only one for an e!Coinshot (to not tip their hand). Why do you think a v!Coinshot would target Albatross? If a v!Coinshot is willing to kill on N1, why do you think they ignored yesterday's counter wagons? You very well could be right, if only because an e!Coinshot is an insanely powerful asset (*MR10 Flashbacks Intensify*) which requires heavy balancing, but the fact that you discount it so easily implies you know something I don't.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena

[Coral Swan]

18 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Beyond this, of lesser relevance, I have notes on both Charcoal Hyena and Amethyst Scorpion discussing them as new, and so infer that Magenta Albatross was likely aware that  this perception existed, but chose not to address it.

This is something I'm aware of, yeah. I can understand how v!Alb (who has not been purposefully trying to be new) would see these and just chuckle and let it happen, rather than call it out- it's what v!me would do in that situation. But it's also what e!me would do, so it's NAI, but I don't think it's elim indicative. I think there's definitely a difference between completely new and experienced, and that's where I'd spot Albatross.

I can see that I have my view on the situation and you have yours, and it's clear that telling each other our view back and forth isn't changing the other person's mind so I say we just end this discussion here  

Praise the Ja!

Edit:

Just now, Charcoal Hyena said:

You've lost me a bit here. While I definitely agree the existence of an e!Coinshot increases the odds of a v!Coinshot, it also could be justified by a large number of Village Thugs and Lurchers. My real hang-up is "With only one kill, I'm assuming that Coinshot is a villager." Why? I can think of many reasons for a v!Coinshot to refrain from killing on N1, but only one for an e!Coinshot (to not tip their hand). Why do you think a v!Coinshot would target Albatross? If a v!Coinshot is willing to kill on N1, why do you think they ignored yesterday's counter wagons? You very well could be right, if only because an e!Coinshot is an insanely powerful asset (*MR10 Flashbacks Intensify*) that requires heavy balancing, but the fact that you discount it so easily implies you know something I don't.

I'm assuming the Coinshot is a villager because I don't think there's an elim one, full stop  If there was two I could see that as possible evidence for an elim one, since I don't think an e!Coinshot exists without a v!Coinshot. I do think most of the time, a v!Coinshot will shoot every night- you're right that there are reasons to not, but it's also the coveted vig role and it'd be a waste to let it sit there. Why do I think a v!CS would target Alb? Because they read Alb as elim, since it's clear multiple people do for reasons other than their survival. I don't think that my village read of them was super mutual, and I don't remember seeing a lot of reads on Alb as a whole, so it's very possible someone was reading them as elim and just never mentioned it. Why do I think they ignored the counterwagons? Possibly because they figured they'd be the candidates for the exe and instead chose to hit someone lower-profile, or maybe because they don't like to be told who to shoot. I dunno, it wasn't me

I do discount it very easily but that's just a product of my playstyle, which no one can confirm. I don't know anything, I just like my strong opinions backed up by little context.

Praise the Ja!

Edited January 7, 2022 by Coral Swan

[Turquoise Gorilla]

35 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Replies "Hehe" to Pearl's Torquoise/Tortoise pun. Nothing else after an hour. Bleh.

FYI - that wasn’t what I was replying to. I was replying to them misspelling it in their VC earlier.

35 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

. @Turquoise Gorilla can you tell me who you would have voted for other than Swan, had "starting other trains” not been “futile”?

Honestly, I’m not sure. I didn’t have too many big reads at the moment, but… maybe Albatross? I remember I was gut reading them kind of weird at that point in the game. In fact, I find this recent survival has only strengthened my opinions against them, since it seems vastly more likely if they were an elim. They could be a vil!Thug, or could have struck a deal with a Lurcher in PM’s, but they could also be an elim!Thug, or could have been protected by an elim!Lurcher. The former is about equally likely for both elim!Albatross and vil!Albatross, but the latter is much more likely to be elim!Albatross. So… Albatross.

[Charcoal Hyena]

13 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I'm assuming the Coinshot is a villager because I don't think there's an elim one, full stop

Fair enough.

14 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I do think most of the time, a v!Coinshot will shoot every night- you're right that there are reasons to not, but it's also the coveted vig role and it'd be a waste to let it sit there.

Our different perspectives on vigilante roles might be the main factor here. Personally, I think a vig should never shoot unless it gives the village a lot of information or they're very confident they'll kill an elim, which likely emboldens my paranoia. The frequency of early misexecutions + elim kills usually reduce village numbers too quickly for comfort as is. I've been there myself and doomed village wins because I was too eager to use my kills, so that's undoubtedly a factor too.

24 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I do discount it very easily but that's just a product of my playstyle, which no one can confirm. I don't know anything, I just like my strong opinions backed up by little context.

For me, I don't want to rule it out too early, because in the case there is an e!Coinshot, the longer we go neglecting that possibility just gives them more time to outnumber us. Better safe than sorry, etc etc.

[Coral Swan]

4 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Our different perspectives on vigilante roles might be the main factor here. Personally, I think a vig should never shoot unless it gives the village a lot of information or they're very confident they'll kill an elim, which likely emboldens my paranoia. The frequency of early misexecutions + elim kills usually reduce village numbers too quickly for comfort as is. I've been there myself and doomed village wins because I was too eager to use my kills, so that's undoubtedly a factor too.

I didn't say that they should shoot, just that I thought most of the time they will anyway

4 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

For me, I don't want to rule it out too early, because in the case there is an e!Coinshot, the longer we go neglecting that possibility just gives them more time to outnumber us. Better safe than sorry, etc etc.

Which is probably the smarter option. I'm not ruling it out entirely but if there is one I will be very, very suprised.

And with Gorilla's post I'm comfortable putting my vote there. Their reasoning makes little sense.

Praise the Ja!

Edited January 7, 2022 by Coral Swan

[Turquoise Gorilla]

5 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

And with Gorilla's post I'm comfortable putting my vote there. Their reasoning makes little sense.

I put a lot of weird explanatory stuff in there because I feel like people were harping on me for not doing any analysis. It really boils down to the fact that it’s more likely that Albatross survived if they were an elim.

[Coral Swan]

5 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

I put a lot of weird explanatory stuff in there because I feel like people were harping on me for not doing any analysis. It really boils down to the fact that it’s more likely that Albatross survived if they were an elim.

That's the part I don't get. 

22 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

They could be a vil!Thug, or could have struck a deal with a Lurcher in PM’s, but they could also be an elim!Thug, or could have been protected by an elim!Lurcher. The former is about equally likely for both elim!Albatross and vil!Albatross, but the latter is much more likely to be elim!Albatross. So… Albatross.

I can understand why being protected by a Lurcher would be more likely if Albatross is elim- Alb claimed Thug, after all. But I don't see why the elim team would pick Albatross to protect unless Alb was who they thought was most likely to be attacked, which I don't really see being true for any elim team that's logically possible. So Thug is automatically more likely of an explanation for their survival.

And at that point you can't claim that elims are more likely to be Thugs, because they're not.

I think your logic is flawed, and the length at which you push that they are much more likely to be elim is weird to me. By this reasoning you would vote for anyone that survived an attack, because they survived an attack.

And then add in the fact that you apparently had a suspicion of Albatross all along that only materialized itself now, and it's enough for a vote from me.

Praise the Ja!

[Charcoal Hyena]

Unfortunately, it's time I get some food and medicine in my system (yay aching head and burning throat) and take a break from slouching over my keyboard like a gremlin. If I don't end up napping, I'll continue mulling over things from my phone. For now, I'll leave us with a vote count.

• (2) Magenta Albatross: Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, 
• (1) Saffron Iguana: Emerald Falcon,
• (1) Azure Mouse: Salmon Meerkat, 
• (1) Fuschia Ostrich: Oxblood Beagle, 
• (1) Turquoise Gorilla: Coral Swan, 

[Scarlet Octopus]

This was the post I was working on before the night ended.

Spoiler

 

@Emerald Falcon in reference to them saying they have their own problems with me.

 

What are they again? A link to a post explaining them works too.

 

16 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Are you a wrong turn, because you're accidentally right. I understand the thought process behind lengthy roleplay posts better than the shorter ones Octopus has sprinkled through the thread. It's not a strong read, but I thought there was a possibility they were self conscious of their lurking or felt the need to talk but didn't have anything to say and dashed off a quick post to cover themselves. 

 

I know you can't trust something a say about my meta, and blue texting that feels wrong, but I only get time in quick batches and I don't like to post if I haven't read everything, so writing time is limited. Also my character is fun.

Current me:

You might get some more from me, but probably won't. I leave in a few hours and won't have internet until tonight if at all.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Scarlet Octopus

[Quartz Zebra]

"huh? wazzzzis? peopleredyingnow?

maybei itll finnnally be quierter ruond here"

 plairzisiezezeja"

[Turquoise Gorilla]

2 hours ago, Coral Swan said:

That's the part I don't get. 

I can understand why being protected by a Lurcher would be more likely if Albatross is elim- Alb claimed Thug, after all. But I don't see why the elim team would pick Albatross to protect unless Alb was who they thought was most likely to be attacked, which I don't really see being true for any elim team that's logically possible. So Thug is automatically more likely of an explanation for their survival.

And at that point you can't claim that elims are more likely to be Thugs, because they're not.

I think your logic is flawed, and the length at which you push that they are much more likely to be elim is weird to me. By this reasoning you would vote for anyone that survived an attack, because they survived an attack.

And then add in the fact that you apparently had a suspicion of Albatross all along that only materialized itself now, and it's enough for a vote from me.

Praise the Ja!

Ok. What I’m trying to say is “I don’t have the motivation to make good, thought-out reads, so I’m like ‘ok, this person seems suspicious’ and I build other suspicions around that. It’s not an elim thing. It’s a me thing.”

I hope that helps.

[Emerald Falcon]

2 hours ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

and blue texting that feels wrong

Blue texting that is explicitly against the rules.

---

If I were to do my favourite activity- Setup speculation- I'd think about the relevance that the ties in this game have on setup. Fortunately, I have remembered that setup speculation is not my favourite activity, nor is it near the top. I also have already recieved a PM from someone claiming the coin/shot, and I have a pretty solid village read on them. So, Moving on.

Penguin's most recent readlist pushes me further into thinking they're village. Yes, I realize they have me in their Village reads but that's not it. it's the fact that my read is overexplained while the others are not. They range from lengthy explanations to "gut" to a microread of a specific post. I would expect more from an elim in terms of substance in this case. If they're going to explain thoroughly one read, I'd think that they'd want to keep that up in fear of letting out who their teammates are or worries of being pushed over it.  I specifically like the point about my Mauve push as well as the microread on Violet.

Everything about Coral makes me want to suspect them, the most recent reason being this:

4 hours ago, Coral Swan said:

Do Not Kill Today: Meerkat, Hyena, Beagle, Scorpion, Axolotl, Elephant

Kill If You Want To (But I Won't Help): Albatross, Dingo, Chameleon, Vulture, Falcon, Penguin, Mouse

Kill If You Want To (And I Might Help): Rhinoceros/Toucan/Dragonfly, Octopus, Zebra, Flamingo, Ostrich

I Will Help: Gorilla, Iguana, Heron

My question is what about Meerkat and Hyena makes you not want to kill that differentiates them from Vulture? All three are producing a high quantity of analysis, and that alone is not my reason for townreading them, which I don't quite do, but for wanting to not kill all three of them this turn. So what differentiates them for you?

This list is basically saying, in my mind, that anyone besides those top six people are ~fine votes to have and you are going to be fine if people vote there. This is an insanely large list. the reason I gave my coin/shot list is because it's not a group of people voting on who the coinshot kills. it's one person killing, and hopefully being right. With 18 names to vote across that you are supposedly "fine" with seeing people vote on, it feels like you are trying to produce a thread that is uncoordinated.

Perhaps I think everyone is more manipulative than they actually are, me being how I am as an Elim.

By the end of the day we should end with a pool of no more than 8 I believe, assuming the Elim team is 6. That's still a decent chunk of the playerlist and very wide. Perhaps smaller if you think Amber or Hyena are Elims, because I still don't want to kill them this early regardless.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Emerald Falcon

[Magenta Albatross]

To address some of the things going around about me, no, I never claimed to be new I just let that assumption go without correcting it cause it's sort of true depending on how you look at it. Without going into too much detail and possibly giving away my IRL identity, I haven't played SE in a long time so as far as meta and what the norms are I have no idea, and even then I've only played a handful of games, so I still wouldn't consider myself overly experienced and some things others might know I don't necessarily, but I'm also a former tournament judge for Magic the Gathering so rules interactions and stuff like that are totally my jam. So given how much of the D1 conversations were based off of assumptions due to what has happened before I had almost no clue what was going on, but once we had information I was able to make some deductions.

3 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

3) As per D1 #4, Magenta Albatross has played at least one anonymous game before, along with LG74, with which they seem familiar. They are further comfortable enough with the concept of PM role trading to do so, and claims they want to tie the vote to produce information. I haven't been around the community recently, so don't know how often the term "role madness" is used presently, but it was a fairly basic part of the lexicon when I did play regularly. Whilst I'm willing to re-evaluate this should I be wrong about the frequency of the use of this term, I think this explanation is unlikely - it seems obvious to me that Magenta Albatross is not a new player.
2) I do not think we can entirely dismiss this out of hand, as I can see a villager wanting to take advantage of an anonymous game to play the game in a different way
1) Is the most likely explanation, I think. The advantages of being seen as inexperienced need not be restated.

Post #73 (here) gives me the largest reason to suspect they are an eliminator. In this post, they claim "they weren't thinking of telling people their role as letting the elims play minesweeper to find their key targets", reinforcing the claim of being a new player. I find it odd that they go on to ascribe village reads to the people they PMd for not engaging in role trading - claiming a village feeling on the grounds of an idea they claim to have just encountered feels wrong to me. I also find it odd that, despite claiming village reads, they don't give the identities of the players within this nebulous claim.

I would further note the last part of their post:

"I really don't have any ideas on who to vote for, I just know we'll need someone to have several more votes than the others to try to avoid vote manip but we still have a while before that really matters so I won't jump on anything yet."

This feels like an attempt to avoid having to give an opinion. Beyond this, I find the conviction that we should be trying to avoid vote manipulation deciding the lynch odd, and encouraging of a band wagon approach to this lynch.

It is particularly odd to me in light of their actions in post #206, here. In this post, they vote on Saffron Iguana, creating a three way tie, which they declare is interesting. Notable, they say "Vote manip could also shake things up and provide information or not", which is both an opinion I would not expect to see from a new player, and directly contradicts their earlier stated view.

I think I am largely convinced they are not a new player, and between #76 and #206 feel it more likely that they are an eliminator than a villager wanting the novelty of a different playstyle.

An eliminator Magenta Albatross has implications both on last cycle's final vote distribution, and I think on Saffron Iguana's own alignment.

As such, despite my view beginning this analysis, I'm going to vote on Magenta Albatross

As was mentioned, my CR is Past Lives, so I was referencing the fact that my Anon Account had a new profile pic while making it about my CR.

Role Madness is a term I legitimately don't remember seeing used before, but the term seemed fairly straight forward thus I guessed what it meant but posted it anyway in case I was incorrect. I have since looked through the General Rules and Etiquette thread to confirm some of the other phrases and abbreviations I've seen people using I was unfamiliar with. 

I had two posts at the beginning that were both in response to other people's assumptions about the connection between that game and this one. As with all of the other things I've said about my past games you have no way of confirming or disproving my statement but I did not play in that game and am unfamiliar with it. I'm not sure why you interpret 

Quote

I feel like I looked differently in a past life as well, but have found renewed vigor in my new flying form as such a vibrantly colored and majestic bird.

Given what that game looked like is it unlikely we have any village Seekers?

Quote

In the clarifications it does say this won't be role madness, and not every spiked is guaranteed to have a role. Does anyone know what is being referenced by role madness? I assume meaning there are regular villagers and not everyone is a misting but I'm not sure. Also probably likely all spiked will have roles even if it isn't confirmed. I don't have a view on meta but ya I assume things are going to be varied from game to game. That distribution does sound somewhat entertaining though.

as being well versed in what had happened in that game. It was a direct response to Iguana's 

Quote

Thank you for the facelift, @DrakeMarshall! I feel like a spy, I'm undercolor and anonymoose. 

The last Tyrian Falls game was LG74. 21% of the 28 players were Spiked: two Seekers, a Rioter, a Smoker, a Tineye, and a Lurcher. A similar ratio would give us 5 Spiked for this game, perhaps with the same roles, minus the duplication.

The village had 9 Regulars, two Thugs, four Smokers, two Soothers, a Rioter, a Tineye, a Coinshot, a Lurcher, and a Mistborn. The excessive Smokers would probably be the ones to go, then I imagine the distribution is largely similar.

and the other posts that were also in response to their initial post.

In my past experience with games, I don't remember role swapping being frowned upon, so yes I was trying to do some of it so I could get information to actually be able to contribute to discussion instead of having nothing to say due to the discussion being about recent games and meta. Once Salmon Meerkat pointed out both in thread and our pm to them that roleswapping was more likely to be helpful to the elims than the village I switched my perspective on it relatively quickly because Meerkat was my biggest village read, and it seemed to echo with what other people had been saying.

Since you bring up that I didn't clarify who I had been pming with, Scarlet Octopus didn't seem very interested in PMing and said they don't really roleclaim. Chartreuse Penguin and I did some discussion about things happening in thread at the time, and then said they weren't interested in roleclaiming as it was info for elims. Turqoise Gorilla and I had a short exchange that ended with them saying they like to keep their cards close to their chest as roleclaiming could be dangerous. I had a short talk with Mauve Crocodile about the fact that in RP they drank the last of my milk and took the tip I had intended for the bartender, then they asked if I wanted to roleswap which I did so I told them I was village Thug and they send they were roleless village. Salmon Meerkat and I had various discussions and they ended up saying they didn't want to roleswap. That was the extent of my early pms I referenced in that post. I also sent a pm to Iguana D1 they never responded to, and Pearl sent me a pm near the end of D1 like they did everyone else.

On the topic of the contradiction between my posts saying I want to avoid vote manip and then later saying I wanted to see what info we got from potential vote manip, my only real explanation is that I didn't feel confident enough in either Gorilla or Crocodile being elim to want to force them to die, so I chose to vote Iguana and force a 3 way tie and see what we found out. Since each of the 3 had the option to self pres it also gave us information about which of the two people they were tied with they would rather see die.

Sorry for long post and potentially confusing layout I just figured I needed to get something out there to explain the things people had been bringing up.

[Turquoise Gorilla]

WELCOME welcome welcome to SABENDERSON ELIMMINITIN!!!! *holds bottle of alcohol aloft* *takes a swig* TWO (2) INNOCENTS ARE NOW dEAD!!!

that’s so great

that’s loooively

sjdjenjesjsnx

please help me get out of this hell

martha! MARTHA! WHERE. ARE. YOU. MARTHA. *runs off stage* MARTHA!!!

[and our wonderful game show host’s descent continues]