Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Coral Swan]

Four?

Huh

-Anyways, I'm not upset with either of those flips (or lack of flip) because Lion was one of the few players who'd posted but was still in my Nulls so it's nice to not have to think about that anymore, and Alb is my biggest trust and remains so since I think they were the elim kill and Lion was the Coinshot. That was quite the runon sentence, you're welcome.

2 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Someone better fess up to killing lion

I'm 1/2 so far, feeling good

Edit: don't fess up to killing lion

Unless you're an Elim, in which case. Go right ahead. 

I was going to say xD

Praise the Ja!

[Magenta Albatross]

So clarifying what happened, I was attacked by Elims, Lion got shot? Or I got shot, Lion was attacked by Elims? I think it's the first cause it says attacked.

[Elbereth]

Oops, good point. That'll be shown in the writeup, but Magenta Albatross was attacked by a Coinshot and Opal Lion was killed by the Spiked.

[Saffron Iguana]

2 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I'm 1/2 so far, feeling good

So you're a glass half full kind of person. 

Weren't Coinshot and Spiked kills going to be differentiated? 

I'd like to revisit my theory about some Tineyes possibly being evil. Is that three or four messages, GM? 

1 minute ago, Magenta Albatross said:

So clarifying what happened, I was attacked by Elims, Lion got shot? Or I got shot, Lion was attacked by Elims? I think it's the first cause it says attacked.

Why do you think you survived? 

[Elbereth]

Just now, Saffron Iguana said:

Weren't Coinshot and Spiked kills going to be differentiated? 

I'd like to revisit my theory about some Tineyes possibly being evil. Is that three or four messages, GM?

Yes, I just forgot that since the writeup wasn't in yet, you wouldn't actually see the differentiation. >>

Four. The one with the image didn't work the first time and I had to go back and fix it, but each quote box is a distinct Tineye message.

[Emerald Falcon]

4 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Four?

Huh

-Anyways, I'm not upset with either of those flips (or lack of flip) because Lion was one of the few players who'd posted but was still in my Nulls so it's nice to not have to think about that anymore, and Alb is my biggest trust and remains so since I think they were the elim kill and Lion was the Coinshot. That was quite the runon sentence, you're welcome.

I was going to say xD

Praise the Ja!

This furthers my newest tunnel. 

Coral

[Magenta Albatross]

10 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Oops, good point. That'll be shown in the writeup, but Magenta Albatross was attacked by a Coinshot and Opal Lion was killed by the Spiked.

Well that's not the outcome I was hoping for of the two but it is what it is.

9 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Why do you think you survived? 

I was debating playing the I don't know card but I'll just be honest, I am a Thug. A Lurcher may also have been targeting me for some reason which would have saved me too but if that's the case it was unknown to me.

Edit: Find the mall. Want to go shopping?

Edited January 7, 2022 by Magenta Albatross

[Saffron Iguana]

16 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I was debating playing the I don't know card but I'll just be honest, I am a Thug. A Lurcher may also have been targeting me for some reason which would have saved me too but if that's the case it was unknown to me.

Part of me thinks that you're evaluating my potential to become an early resident of the region now known as France. Specifically that you think I'm Gaul-ible. But I mostly believe you. Unfortunately, that's the least intriguing response you could have given. 

Quote

Oh, by the way, I'm a Mistborn and I have no idea what I'm doing, so any suggestions would help me right out.

I recommend not risking exposing your identity by providing enough writing for text analysis going forward. 

Quote

This is your captain speaking. I do not mean to alarm you, but you should know that we have found some spikes of various metals lodged in the pitch mechanism. This means we will not be able to land or turn until they have been purged from our system.

-Captain Осbmnhor Anbin

The "I" looks like Octopus' font, but it's too strangely positioned to be accidentally, so I think it's a different kind of fish. (A red herring.) 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Saffron Iguana
Added last part

[Pearl Chameleon]

8 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I was debating playing the I don't know card but I'll just be honest, I am a Thug. A Lurcher may also have been targeting me for some reason which would have saved me too but if that's the case it was unknown to me.

You most likely would have been told by the GMs if your extra life had been used up when you were attacked and survived, if you are truly a Thug. At least, I believe that is how this would work. If you were protected by a Lurcher, I do not think your extra life would have been used up, and you should have been told that too.

[Magenta Albatross]

1 minute ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

You most likely would have been told by the GMs if your extra life had been used up when you were attacked and survived, if you are truly a Thug. At least, I believe that is how this would work. If you were protected by a Lurcher, I do not think your extra life would have been used up, and you should have been told that too.

Ya I was sent a message by GM after I made that post saying my life got used up. So I was not Lurched.

4 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Part of me thinks that you're evaluating my potential to become an early resident of the region now known as France. Specifically that you think I'm Gaul-ible. But I mostly believe you. Unfortunately, that's the least intriguing response you could have given. 

I guess I wasn't going for intriguing, I was going for honest. The alternative would have been to lie and say I must have been Lurched which while intriguing could also prove fatal.

 

So on day 1 some people were discussing troll role distribution, I assume 3 Tineyes counts.

[Saffron Iguana]

Just now, Magenta Albatross said:

Ya I was sent a message by GM after I made that post saying my life got used up. So I was not Lurched.

I guess I wasn't going for intriguing, I was going for honest. The alternative would have been to lie and say I must have been Lurched which while intriguing could also prove fatal.

 

So on day 1 some people were discussing troll role distribution, I assume 3 Tineyes counts.

Hey so you're not being protected by the Addams Family butler? That's less indicative of evilness. 

Good connection. What do you think the implications of this distribution are, Albatross? 

[Magenta Albatross]

3 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Hey so you're not being protected by the Addams Family butler? That's less indicative of evilness. 

Good connection. What do you think the implications of this distribution are, Albatross? 

I mean who wouldn't want to be protected by a member of the Addams Family? 

We know we have a Mistborn, Coinshot, 3 Tineyes, 2 Rioters/Soothers(Probably but technically could just be 1 Rioter), Thug. There isn't anything that like, counters, a Tineye so there likely isn't an oddly large number of another role, we probably have a Smoker, Lurcher, Seeker, unless other oddities exist. One of the tineyes is probably evil, I think, or they could all be evil cause even more trolling. Mistborn claims to not know what they're doing, which may be accurate and they are village or they could be evil and trying to make everyone think they are good by saying that though I think some people thought Mistborn would be too strong for elims to get idk. There's also the possibility it's a total bluff and it's a Tineye claiming to be Mistborn for some reason.

Also on Mistborn not sure if this is the normal rules for them but since only the first role gets rerolled on a duplicate then on night 4 it would be their 5th roll and the list doesn't reset til they get them all so from 5th night onward they would be more likely to reroll an ability than roll a new one which may or may not matter depending on how long the game goes.

[Coral Swan]

50 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Oops, good point. That'll be shown in the writeup, but Magenta Albatross was attacked by a Coinshot and Opal Lion was killed by the Spiked.

xD my theory was short lived...

27 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

I recommend not risking exposing your identity by providing enough writing for text analysis going forward. 

I'm stupid and don't know what this means- you got a Mistborn claim?

Praise the Ja!

[Magenta Albatross]

50 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

This furthers my newest tunnel. 

Coral

What specifically about it? That they trusted me, or didn't seem to care about Lion? Or something else I'm not seeing?

[Oxblood Beagle]

5 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I'm stupid and don't know what this means- you got a Mistborn claim?

We all did. It's in one of the Tineye messages.

[Emerald Falcon]

For supposedly assuming magenta is new, they're doing a lot of interesting things: PMing lots of people apparently, Nesting quotes, providing votecounts. Things surrounding the survival aren't feeling right to me, but I don't see how on an elim team they would choose to protect magenta. if that is the case, then something must be interesting about that team composition.

Unless I missed it last night, Magenta, do you have any conclusions from the D1 kill?

My reads stay mostly the same: Penguin/Salmon/Coral are my top village reads. Today I'd want to kill probably Iguana>Pearl>[oxblood]. I was hoping the coinshot would help resolve within iguana/pearl, or at least resolve an inactive. Alas. we have yet to hear from Rhino and Toucan still.

Of the other people who haven't talked, I feel best about Elephant, and I will feel good about Mint if Pearl turns out to be an Elim.

[Salmon Meerkat]

2 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

We know we have a Mistborn, Coinshot, 3 Tineyes, 2 Rioters/Soothers(Probably but technically could just be 1 Rioter), Thug. There isn't anything that like, counters, a Tineye so there likely isn't an oddly large number of another role, we probably have a Smoker, Lurcher, Seeker, unless other oddities exist. One of the tineyes is probably evil, I think, or they could all be evil cause even more trolling. Mistborn claims to not know what they're doing, which may be accurate and they are village or they could be evil and trying to make everyone think they are good by saying that though I think some people thought Mistborn would be too strong for elims to get idk. There's also the possibility it's a total bluff and it's a Tineye claiming to be Mistborn for some reason.

i disagree

we have 4 Tineye messages, 1 of whom claims 2 be Mistborn & i dont like the look of the ruin message

we don't know what the tineye messages purposes/intended audience is & im not prepared 2 conclude that they r not mistborn trying 2 pass themselves off as tineyes

my personal assessment is that mistborn is actually weaker than people think due to the randomness element + weighted metals distro

im not sure i would put tineye b4 mistborn but i could easily see mistborn trying 2 pass themselves off as tineye in messaging

we will get a better idea as more nights pass & message numbers fluctuate though of course tineyes cld also refuse 2 send in more messages

4 tineyes isn't implausible though it does entail pms are fairly secured i just don't feel the need 2 commit to it so soon since mistborn have a vested interest

mistborn rand 4 metals so they can be annoying 2 rely on

ag3 had 2 spiked mistborn & 1 thug & 1 lurcher & 1 smoker team + village had coinshot & no mistborn

i m going to also be v wild & say - but more weakly - i am not sure i commit to v!coinshot just yet 

i don't feel i know enough about this game to want to make that assumption but my v coinshot credence is stronger than e coinshot but i don't feel it is strong enough - probably 0.7 certainty i just want to keep sense of gamestate fluid its d2 for warmmha's sake

lion reads 2 me like low info kill MO + potential elims phishing in the dark 4 roles

working out thought on albatross but i m sorry alb gets default sideeye from me on account of khas

m working on my vote analysis now but in absentia

Azure Mouse - how is the lurking elim game going =)

Edit: I am a fool gone to my dotage. If we commit to Village Coinshot there is moderately high probability of Thug/Lurcher/Mistborn on the Elim team. Potential spiciness with no Lucher (LG74 had considered dropping the Lurcher for the Elim team) and maybe Mistborn/Thugs instead. 

If we commit to Evil Coinshot which I will agree is not my most intuitive read but this is Tyrian and this is El and I will be dead and further in my dotage before I do not expect some sort of fiendish nefarity in an AG Tyrian game distro - then we should be seeing way more padding in the Village I think. Two vanillas and however many Tineyes and at least two vote manips seems to make this a side or smaller possibility but I am not altogether going to fully dismiss it just yet.

I think V/E Coinshot is a sideshow anyway as it detracts from today's task which is making sense of yesterday's lynch and trying to get an Elim this time but as it is clear I have never been able to see a discussion and just stay out of it.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Oxblood Beagle]

Alright. I'm finally logged into a desktop and not sequestered to mobile only where typing long things is an arduous process that I'm far too disinterested in undertaking. Let's see if I can contribute something more than a few lines here and there.

I think I believe Albatross' Thug claim. No matter the alignment, they'd have been an odd Lurcher target, unless they were a Lurcher self-preserving. Odd coinshot choice, too. If it were a v!Coinshot, my guess is it had to do with Albatross' vote being suspicious, combined with wanting to avoid hitting someone with likely protection (ironic, yes?). If Iguana, Gorilla, or Chameleon are elims, and we are right about a e!Lurcher, they're the most likely to be protected. If it were an e!Coinshot, then it's obvious why they didn't hit the top exe targets. Overall, this makes me lean slightly village on Albatross, though that's also pending confirmation that there is an e!Lurcher. I'd suspect elims have either a Lurcher or a Thug, but not both, unless it's a smaller team.

Good that we have that many Tineyes, though I am sad at the status of my personal PMs. I should change that. 

Most of the late votes in C1 make sense, as they were the exe targets self-preserving. Albatross' sticks out still, but I'm not certain it's condemning, especially with their attack. Scorpion's is the only other late vote, and that seemed an attempt to avoid ties, which I can accept as not necessarily being AI.

As for Chameleon, Iguana, and Gorilla, I'll take some more time tomorrow to dig into their posts and see what the suspicion is all about. I'm inclined to trust Chameleon a little more because of the lack of response to their exe for the first day and a half. It wasn't until votes started shifting towards the other two that people started getting more involved (though whether that's from the late hour or one of them being elim is unclear). I was paying attention to the thread, but don't actually remember why either Iguana or Gorilla were considered suspicious. Actually, let's do that now (not thoroughly, sorry. I am tired and it is late). But I'll at least look at the voting patterns.

Gorilla's first vote came from Axolotl, who pointed out Gorilla's posts as having the appearance of usefulness, but not actually helping. Meerkat's vote came from the same place, but was removed before the next vote from Swan for Gorilla's opportunistic vote on them. Which, yeah. That was a bit odd. Granted Octo's vote right after also seemed opportunistic/elim jumping on train.

Iguana's first vote was from Chameleon regarding Iguana's discussion of LG74 (which then prompted the first votes on Chameleon). That vote didn't last long, and the next vote was Chameleon again late Wednesday avoiding any of the current trains, followed by a vote from Croc who said they brought the idea up with Cham because despite the contribution levels, they still had a null read on Iguana. 

It was tied between Gorilla and Croc until the last 15 minutes, when Albatross voted on Iguana. Then self-pres votes started flying. As I said before, those last votes are pretty NAI.

With the voting patterns, I am more suspicious of Gorilla than Iguana or Chameleon. This means I also want to look more closely at those on the Crocodile and Iguana trains a little more closely, since those were the main ones that attempted to save Gorilla.

The one thing that bothers me, though, is how close all of the votes were left, even with the last-minute frantic scramble for self-presing. If either of the three were elims, we should have seen a little more distance in those late votes to protect one or the other. Vote manip changes that a bit, but if elims have it (not sure that's likely because of how powerful it can be in the end), certainly village does too, which is very dangerous for elims if one of theirs is close to exe.

I think we should start looking into other people who've been under the radar. How's it going Ostrich. ( @Fuchsia Ostrich )

[Chartreuse Penguin]

6 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I was debating playing the I don't know card but I'll just be honest, I am a Thug

Now why would you ever say that  Let's pretend you're bluffing, don't let the elims know!  

But on a more serious note, I'm inclined to believe your claim. I do not get village vibes from it though - you claimed way too easily and way too quickly. From a newer player, this would be understandable. But upon reading your posts- no, rereading our PM, I don't get the impression that you're a new player like Falcon is suggesting (and Swan is of the same opinion iirc). Obviously we're not permitted to c/p from PMs, but to paraphrase, at one point in our PM you brought up the fact that on D1s, we have to latch on to the littlest details to justify votes - I don't think a new player would say this. You need at least one game's worth of experience to be able to notice that, no? And if you've played one game at least, surely you'd know what role madness is? I get the feeling that e!Albatross has been trying very hard to come off as a new player (that post asking what role madness is, the role-exchanging requests in pms, the subsequent -and very public- realisation that exchanging roles mostly only helps elims) and thinks that claiming straight-up without waiting to receive more pressure from the thread will get them village cred for being transparent about their role. Except, a villager would know that publicly claiming this role doesnt exactly help the village in any way, it just provides the elim team with role distribution information. It is very possible that I'm reaching too hard with my tin-foil hat on, but I really wanna trust my gut here,,,i think that one particular LG permanently broke my brain

Also uh here's a reads list.

Village: 

    Emerald Falcon: The fact that they made this odd mistake of bringing up PMs that don't exist reads extremely village to me, I can't imagine an elim making a slip this blatant. Additionally, their case against Mauve Crocodile was too strong and confrontive for it be coming from an elim imo, particularly because this was posted 30 mins before rollover and I fail to see why an elim would make the effort to explain their vote in such depth when they know Mauve is going to flip village

  Saffron Iguana: three letters - g u t

  Violet Axolotl: this post, mostly. Screams village imo.

  Coral Swan: also gut? I think? I need to re-evaluate this one at some point

Elim:

   Magenta Albatross: explained above

   Ivory Dragonfly: man's made a total of one (1) post, with essentially no content in it. From the looks of last night's NK, it seems that the elims were going for a low-info kill. Surely Dragonfly would've made for a far suitable candidate for that than Lion, who had posted considerably more than them? Dragonfly isnt at risk from the activity filter either, thanks to their one post. I would put Elephant under the same category, except Elephant's first post wasn't until the night turn, so it's possible the elims just didnt consider Elephant for the NK because they expected them to fall to the activity filter soon.

   Charcoal Hyena: for reasons i've been chasing in the past, although my elim read of hyena is a bit less intense now I'll admit

Confused about (half the time I'm convinced they're village and the other half not so much):

  Salmon Meerkat, Amber Vulture, Pearl Chameleon

Remaining players: I've yet to form any hint of an opinion on you soz

[Salmon Meerkat]

13 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Except, a villager would know that publicly claiming this role doesnt exactly help the village in any way, it just provides the elim team with role distribution information.

I'm in an odd position here.

I'm not really sure why Albatross would say he considered playing the IDK card. This feels to me like an attempt to play into the new player profile and I agree about the discrepancies in Albatross's awareness of terminology and apparent lack of knowledge of meta considerations. This is plausibly explained by being from a different site with different meta but eh. I'm always more paranoid of that player profile because my first Elim team specifically got me to play into that profile in order to lower suspicions. Though that doesn't seem to be working too well for Albatross.

That being said, I'm still skimming and preparing for my analysis post, but I don't fully agree with this highlighted statement. Anyone capable of inference to the best explanation knows that Albatross has to be a Thug, a Lurcher, or Lurched. The rules of the game don't allow any other means of surviving a Coinshot kill. It is logical for Saffron Iguana to call out the oddity and to demand more information because it is very rare that players will be so full of trust N1 that a Lurcher will Lurch Albatross (of all options!) rather than themselves. It's not impossible, but the rarity of such circumstances obtaining makes it very rare and so somewhat of interest to the thread as a potential V Coinshot meets Evil Lurch.

(That being said, I'm not sure why an Evil teammate would Lurch Albatross - I'm still working on my D1 reads but I feel certain that there ought to be more high-temperature members on the Elim team than Albatross. Albatross just hasn't attracted that much discursive heat unless there's something I'm missing or forgetting.)

I think the exchange is too brief for me to have any strong feelings about it. I'm not really sure why Albatross feels the need to highlight he considered not being honest, but I've commented about that above, and perhaps that's what's got Penguin's dander up. Nevertheless, I don't think there's a strong reason to favour refusal to comment over being willing to explain survival in this context because there is just no significant difference between the two routes, and I'm concerned that Penguin seems to be wanting to suppress information more strongly than is warranted.

It's not clear to me that publicly claiming the role doesn't exactly help the village in any way. I'd put it weakly positive to null. The cat is already out of the bag, as it were. And if Albatross is ever implicated in any metal action from here on out, we know he is a filthy liar. Moreover, the Elims already infer the existence of a Thug or a Lurcher just from Albatross's survival. And the logical thing to do whether Village or Elim is to claim Thug. If you are a Village Lurcher who self-protected, you don't want to be IDed for an Elim kill or manipulation because you will be a threat to them, so it is safer to claim Thug. In fact, since you are a Village Lurcher who self-protected, you want the Elims to think you are a Thug, and therefore not of interest. I have passed myself off as a Thug when surviving an attack before as a Lurcher for that exact reason. Since this was a Coinshot kill, an Elim who confessed to being a Lurcher would be seen as reckless and Evil, whereas an Elim who confessed to being Lurched would also be rightfully suspected. And as Maili once said, claiming Thug is easy as a go-to for a fake claim - the only way people can prove you wrong barring a confirmed truthful Seeker is to kill you, by which point you are too dead to care. 

Informational hygiene and opsec is important. But we can't fetishise it to the extent of hampering our picture of events. Telling your role because someone asked you in a PM isn't the same sort of context as telling your role because the Village wants to know what is going on with a Coinshot hit on you, or related reasons. I think it's stretching it to regard the latter with hostility, and I'm less wary of the vote on Albatross so much as the way you seem to be pushing for suppression.

tldr;

• Albatross - odd profile and I am instinctively always wary of players who are consciously leaning into that new player profile for LG5 reasons
• Dislike Penguin's move to suppress - this isn't the same as claiming because Maili asked you nicely & if truthful, helps give us a better picture of last night
• Assess the claim to be weakly positive or null - at this stage of the game with no potential for a Seeker scan D1, the only expected answer is Thug.
• I feel like I've just wasted my time actually because this took more words than I wanted it to rip sorry back to my analysis

[Charcoal Hyena]

Checking in to keep ya'll informed I ended up falling asleep on my keyboard last night while isolating Turquoise and lost my progress to the refresh monster, so that's still my top priority. Hopefully it will be quicker the second time around, but I've also got a lot more work ahead of me. I'm still mulling over Saffron's response to my analysis, but plan to resolve that soon too, and I'd love to get my reads list updated based on everything that's happened since my last one before I'm confident enough to place a vote. A lot has happened and with so many anonymous players, I've found myself forgetting about slots entirely or blending a few together, which has been a major headache when trying to organize my thoughts off-paper.

Regarding Albatross, their Thug claim is not at all surprising, for the reasons Salmon highlighted above, and from my perspective, welcome. In a v!Albatross scenario, their claim does nothing to benefit the elims, who inherently have more information than the rest of us and can infer more from their survival alone. Meanwhile, villagers begin the game knowing nothing more than their own role / alignment, which means every data point revealed in thread is a non-insignificant piece of the puzzle that we need to solve. My greatest concern isn't even if Albatross is village or elim, but whether the Coinshot is village or elim. Though some players advocated for village Coinshots shooting N1, I would expect them to be more reluctant, and if in the case they did shoot, I would expect it'd have been one of yesterday's counter wagons. Not Albatross, who's largely been flying under the radar (as far as my memory serves me), whereas an e!Coinshot would likely shoot regardless and likely target someone low-profile in order to avoid confirmation. I'll isolate Albatross's posts soon and consider why a v!Coinshot would go for them over anyone else on N1, because I'm having trouble wrapping my head around it, as well as the worst-case scenario of a WGG, which my gut says is unlikely (albeit still worth investigating).

TL;DR I'm not too suspicious of Albatross, but I am looking warily at the Coinshot who attacked them. In the event the Coinshot is an elim, I worry that it could be a distraction, and that anyone who pushes for their lynch (Chartreuse?) is using their survival to justify not looking at yesterday's counter wagons (Saffron, Turquoise, and to a lesser extent, myself, which I can personally rule out).

Edited January 7, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena

[Chartreuse Penguin]

46 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

tldr;

• Albatross - odd profile and I am instinctively always wary of players who are consciously leaning into that new player profile for LG5 reasons
• Dislike Penguin's move to suppress - this isn't the same as claiming because Maili asked you nicely & if truthful, helps give us a better picture of last night
• Assess the claim to be weakly positive or null - at this stage of the game with no potential for a Seeker scan D1, the only expected answer is Thug.
• I feel like I've just wasted my time actually because this took more words than I wanted it to rip sorry back to my analysis

The way I see it, if Albatross hadn’t role claimed, both the elims and villagers alike would be left with three options (Lurcher, lurched, or thug, like you say), which is still better than having an actual claim because that would’ve left greater room for doubt. I say this benefits the elims because they already have an extended knowledge of the role distribution collectively judging off their own roles, and this just makes it easier for them to narrow down the more important village roles. I just don’t think claiming was the best of moves, agree to disagree  

[Salmon Meerkat]

29 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

The way I see it, if Albatross hadn’t role claimed, both the elims and villagers alike would be left with three options (Lurcher, lurched, or thug, like you say), which is still better than having an actual claim because that would’ve left greater room for doubt. I say this benefits the elims because they already have an extended knowledge of the role distribution collectively judging off their own roles, and this just makes it easier for them to narrow down the more important village roles. I just don’t think claiming was the best of moves, agree to disagree  

They're still left with three options. Two because Lurched really only applies if Albatross is Elim in which case they already know the answer. A 50% chance of hitting a V Lurcher isn't a bad one and while I have yet to decide how I feel about Albatross, this paints your current push in a more negative light. If the expected answer no matter what is Thug, then saying it or not saying it doesn't make a difference informationally to the Elim team because it's still 50% odds if Albatross is Village, and if Albatross isn't, then they already knew so Albatross wasn't saying anything new to the Elims.

Edited to add:

I want to sharpen this point a little.

You say on D1:

Quote

At the very least, lying about roles makes the game fun.:P The village is gonna lose more than gain from genuine role claims right now anyway, so if lying sows confusion then so be it. At least this way it's a lose-lose for both the village and the elims. I will hence assume any roles claimed to me to be lies.  This is the best course of action - just me saying this sets up a nice IKYK for everyone who has roleclaimed/will roleclaim.

And yet you dismiss that there is valid reason for there to be a significant IKYK with regard to Thug claims because no matter what Albatross's alignment or role is, Albatross basically pretty much has to claim Thug.

I'm trying to work out why your views on IKYK or fakeclaiming have shifted from D1. Either fakeclaiming is a good shield or it is not. Either the possibility of fakeclaiming is an ameliorative or it is not. Make up your mind.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Chartreuse Penguin]

3 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Lurched really only applies if Albatross is Elim

Why? I think the general impression that most players had about albatross last cycle was positive, so I won’t be surprised if a village Lurcher decided to protect them? if the Lurcher thought they themself weren’t particularly at risk of getting attacked last night, protecting a player that they trust would allow the Lurcher to use their protection on themself in the next cycle. 

[Salmon Meerkat]

9 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Why? I think the general impression that most players had about albatross last cycle was positive, so I won’t be surprised if a village Lurcher decided to protect them? if the Lurcher thought they themself weren’t particularly at risk of getting attacked last night, protecting a player that they trust would allow the Lurcher to use their protection on themself in the next cycle. 

The main positive read I have seen of Albatross is from Coral Swan. If you can show me where the other positive impressions come from, I'd appreciate it as I'm still catching up writing up my thoughts on page 3 (!) of D1 and I have a long way to go. 

I'd still weight down the possibility of a Village Lurcher because the Lurcher should be identifying trusts and likely targets, but I'd agree that's really at the mercy of the player meta.

My current read of the situation is that a player who is lukewarm positive got shot and got protected.

Furthermore, you are voting on Albatross - so you think Albatross is Evil. But I agree with Albatross's tactics, so I guess this commits you to the claim I'm Evil too because it seems your current basis for your vote is because Albatross thought it was okay to claim.

So where does the agree to disagree come from? If the tactic is really so objectionable that it makes Albatross Evil, then I should be Evil too and you should be calling me out rather than telling me agree to disagree. I can't decide if this is an opportunistic vote or just one of those tactical clashes. Part of me thinks this feels like an opportunistic vote and part of me thinks you're invested enough in explaining why you think Albatross is a decent target for a protect that you probably are sincere.

Edited to add: To be clear, 

Quote

My current read of the situation is that a player who is lukewarm positive got shot and got protected

We are talking about what happens if we assume that there is a Lurcher who protected Albatross. I would say lukewarm positive.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat