Mid-Range Game 55: Sudden but Inevitable Betrayal

[Illwei]

I saw that, yes.

@Archer

Who do you think is the elim team rn, assuming I cant be a wolf

---

If there are 3 elims and Archer is one of them, then last turn shouldn't have turned out like it did. Unless Walin is the 3rd, in which case
rip

@Walin

 

[Elandera she/her]

26 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Elandera Would a shepherd roleblock show as an attacked but survived?

Yes, a shepherd roleblock would show as attacked but survived.

[Teia she/her]

26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Oh also Teia is essentially confirmed Reaver because I Shepherd’d them. Elan says that a Shepherd would show as an attack/survive.

Wait, what?! Care to explain how exactly that proves that I’m a Reaver? First off, I’m not. Second, how does the shepherd action confirm me and not someone else? 

[Mat he/him]

20 minutes ago, Teia said:

Wait, what?! Care to explain how exactly that proves that I’m a Reaver? First off, I’m not. Second, how does the shepherd action confirm me and not someone else? 

Because last cycle I used my action to block any attacks you made, and voila, we have an attack and a survival. There was no other kill (we already had two coinshots die anyway), and nothing indicating the elims wouldn't have submitted one.

23 minutes ago, Illwei said:

If there are 3 elims and Archer is one of them, then last turn shouldn't have turned out like it did. Unless Walin is the 3rd, in which case
rip

@Walin

I think since Archer shameless pre-flip since I have a great track record with that is presumably a Captain (right? No other way he could have survived) a two person Reaver start makes sense, and we've had enough kills that I don't think a conversion happened. I Shepherd's Lotus C1, so she didn't kill that day and I don't see the elims attempting to attack the person with zero posts when there are people, like you pointed out, who voted them/are widely village read.

That's kind of a clucky paragraph, sorry.

Also I think you found the piece tbh

Edited December 28, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also I think you found the piece tbh

I didn't

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I didn't

Ok

Wonder what the elims were planning to do if I got converted.

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: @Archer, why didn’t you mention you would survive? (I ask this only because routine needs it to be asked)

I feel like I made it very clear that exing me was a bad idea. :P. 

44 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I saw that, yes.

@Archer

Who do you think is the elim team rn, assuming I cant be a wolf

Not sure why you think I'd have changed my mind after all that. I got hammered, it's exlo, the rest is window dressing. Illwei

[Teia she/her]

Yo anyone want to explain how Mat survived? It’s making me look bad but I can’t counter it unless someone else comes out.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Not sure why you think I'd have changed my mind after all that. I got hammered, it's exlo, the rest is window dressing. Illwei

You got hammered? When the votes were already in (against?) your favor?

And nothing to say about my action result?

[Archer he/him]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

You got hammered? When the votes were already in (against?) your favor?

And nothing to say about my action result?

Maybe I'm misusing the term. What's it called when the elims vote in cohort and create a three vote wagon to start the round, then its the one that wins? It's like an early hammer. 

Nah. I'll figure out what's happening there later. For now, let me enjoy the fact that I got to tank that kill. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 minutes ago, Teia said:

Yo anyone want to explain how Mat survived? It’s making me look bad but I can’t counter it unless someone else comes out.

I did hear that a pilot would be using their ability last cycle, which would have saved Mat if they had the same alignment. Village presumably, since it would be weird for the elims to attack one of their own at this stage of the game and risk their pilot dying. That doesn't mean you couldn't have been the one to attack Mat, but it offers another explanation for his survival.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I did hear that a pilot would be using their ability last cycle, which would have saved Mat if they had the same alignment. Village presumably, since it would be weird for the elims to attack one of their own at this stage of the game and risk their pilot dying. That doesn't mean you couldn't have been the one to attack Mat, but it offers another explanation for his survival.

If this is true I'd definitely like to know. PM me, I mean, you don't have to claim. Unless you want to.

I'd switch my vote from Teia to Archer in that case.

[Illwei]

26 minutes ago, Archer said:

Not sure why you think I'd have changed my mind after all that. I got hammered, it's exlo, the rest is window dressing. Illwei

It's exlo? a slip that there's 3 elims?

We have 7 people, if there's two we still have one more cycle. if there's three it's exlo. if there are more alliance then who knows, but i doubt there is with how little players there were to begin with.

Thoughts on Teia though?

I don't think you've changed your mind, but if you aren't able to see other scenarios then that just more solidifies that you're an elim for me. suppose I died last night? who would you be pushing today?  And why isn't it Teia?
 

[Mat he/him]

Teia

I need to think about this

[Mat he/him]

Ok no

Teia

This is what I’m doing

[Teia she/her]

That’s a bad idea!

14 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I did hear that a pilot would be using their ability last cycle, which would have saved Mat if they had the same alignment. Village presumably, since it would be weird for the elims to attack one of their own at this stage of the game and risk their pilot dying. That doesn't mean you couldn't have been the one to attack Mat, but it offers another explanation for his survival.

Anyone want to fess up?!!! Please? 

[Illwei]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ok no

Teia

This is what I’m doing

Archer makes 10 * more sense here

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Archer makes 10 * more sense here

I respectfully disagree. Teia is in virtually every elim comp. Archer is not.

[Illwei]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I respectfully disagree. Teia is in virtually every elim comp. Archer is not.

explain then how the pilot plays in? what do you think of devo?

@Steeldancer can you back the claim that you used your pilot action last night

[Mat he/him]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

explain then how the pilot plays in? what do you think of devo?

@Steeldancer can you back the claim that you used your pilot action last night

I think that Steel and Devo are both confirmed village in my mind. Steel wouldn’t have saved me if he was attacking me and if he’s lying altogether then I survived because I blocked Teia. If Devo’s evil but Steel’s not, Steel would have died C1. So the only scenario in which Steel and Devo are evil is if Teia is also.

The other and more likely options are Archer/Teia and Illwei/Teia. Walin could be evil with any of you three as well but since he’s inactive I don’t really care about that right now.

[Teia she/her]

I’ll vote Archer. Same reasoning as last time (so basically little to no reasoning). I’m liking Illwei more and more.

(I’m going to be skiing tomorrow so I’ll disappear for awhile if I’m not killed) Pls don’t kill me  

[Mat he/him]

Illwei

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Illwei

WOW rude smh!

[Archer he/him]

Here’s where I’m at. I think that the Reavers likely started as a two man team, then may have converted someone C1. It’d be odd for the a!Merc not to take a shot, unless they were affected by an unclaimed block. That’d put the ratio at 4v:3e, which is exlo. For meta reasons, I doubt the elim team shot at Walin or Teia on C1, so for them to be evil, I’m assuming they were from that start.

I think Steel is confirmed village for blocking a kill that, from a three-man elim team’s perspective that doesn’t know I’m a Thug, would have won them the game. Steel, did Devo know you were going to use your ability? I imagine they would have held their fire if so, to avoid confirming Mat as village. There’s a chance of a Mat-Devo team pulling a WGG though. If they didn’t know, Devo could still be evil. Mat, who’d you tell about your Shepherd ability before today?

It doesn’t really matter since if Mat is evil, I’m going to die. So I’m just gonna discount that team and move on. The remaining suspects are Illwei, Teia, and Walin. That’s a problem because of my no-targeting-Walin-or-Teia-C1 theory. Walin is a total null read. I find it weird that Teia stuck to vanity votes the first two cycles and they had a weird line about sheeping the consensus earlier. I’d actually talked myself into voting Teia if that was the only option, but if you’re willing to go for Illwei Mat, that’s the one I feel better about. I can’t see the team being Walin-Teia, and it’s also unlikely that it was entirely village action last cycle before the extension.

Maybe the Reavers started off with just one person? Conversion odds seem low for that though.

Also, remember to submit your Search actions y'all.

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

Mat, who’d you tell about your Shepherd ability before today?

 

Nobody. Actually kept PM safety, go figure :D.

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

I’d actually talked myself into voting Teia if that was the only option, but if you’re willing to go for Illwei Mat, that’s the one I feel better about.

My issue is that Teia claimed Captain to me in PMs today. If she’s evil with you, she’ll die because that would be a lie. If she’s evil with Illwei she won’t because there’s no real reason for her to lie imo. I guess to not be killed, but we’re gonna have to eventually so I think she’s probably a Captain if you’re Crew.

@Devotary of Spontaneity @Steeldancer you guys should vote