Mid-Range Game 55: Sudden but Inevitable Betrayal

[Archer he/him]

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I did here, indirectly:

I figured you'd clocked it. But when Steel made their post saying they read the thread and came out thinking that Szeth seemed village, you voted for them, but you didn't point out the flaw in their analysis. I'd have expected you to say something more along the lines of, hey, it looks like you elim killed TUA then pretended to do a thread skim to justify your vote, but forgot the other kill that happened from a Merc which gave us a flip that makes your take redundant.

It looks like you just saw an easy side wagon you could park a vote on, but didn't want to deeply engage with it at the moment. Ignore the fact that I'm suspecting you both even though it's unlikely you're teammates. It'll work out somehow 

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

I figured you'd clocked it. But when Steel made their post saying they read the thread and came out thinking that Szeth seemed village, you voted for them, but you didn't point out the flaw in their analysis. I'd have expected you to say something more along the lines of, hey, it looks like you elim killed TUA then pretended to do a thread skim to justify your vote, but forgot the other kill that happened from a Merc which gave us a flip that makes your take redundant.

It looks like you just saw an easy side wagon you could park a vote on, but didn't want to deeply engage with it at the moment. Ignore the fact that I'm suspecting you both even though it's unlikely you're teammates. It'll work out somehow 

No joke it took me until now to realize Steel even mentioned Szeth in his post

That’s how focused I am at the moment

I think we’re on the same page now

[Illwei]

Steels vote is opportunistic, but that doesn't change the fact that archer looked like he was trying to make Szeth and him look partnered from their interactions before because I was trying trying to push it

 

If I'm wrong I'm wrong

[Elandera she/her]

About 12 hours to get your votes and actions in. Seeing as how I've been short on sleep for at least three weeks, I may or may not be awake in time. Either way, the turn ends at noon PST. 

[Illwei]

sad that day wasn't extended for chrystler

[Elandera she/her]

49 minutes ago, Illwei said:

sad that day wasn't extended for chrystler

Hmm. That's a good point. I think I need a day to not worry about waking up and doing things.

I am extending this turn an extra 24 hours. It will now end December 27 at noon PST. 

[Mat he/him]

Oh look, an excuse not to reread the thread this morning xD But no, I like this. Thanks Elan.

[Archer he/him]

Hey @Illwei, can you shoot me a PM please and thanks? 

EDIT: @Walin, @Teia, which of you found the Secret piece? I assume anyone who posted would have claimed it if they had. 

Edited December 27, 2021 by Archer

[Illwei]

no one answer that

is not neccesary

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

no one answer that   is not neccesary

Don't bother overplaying your hand, my team won't communicate regardless of any discouragement you want to throw at them. It's a free village read. No one's going to fake counter claim it, so why wouldn't we want to know who got it. I'd rather hoped it would tell me whether I'm being hammered by two elims or three, but as soon as I post this I know you're going to come out and say you did in fact find it because that mires the whole approach. 

Illwei's two main points against me are 1/ the kills seem like my style. That's subjective and we don't know which team made any of them. 2/ my C2 vote made it look like I was e-e with Szeth. Perhaps when Szeth voted on me, that bad read should have been corrected. 

Illwei had an opportunistic vote on Ash C1 and a willingness to vote Lotus C2 that conveniently got distracted by a desire to vote for me once the Lotus train solidified as the likely mix.

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

Steels vote is opportunistic, but that doesn't change the fact that archer looked like he was trying to make Szeth and him look partnered from their interactions before because I was trying trying to push it

This post shouts e-e with Steel, so on the off chance that switching to that vote makes this thread less stagnant or convinces a v!Mat to move, I'll change my vote to there. Both their votes have been bandwagony, and I'm convinced the elim team shot TUA and Steel missed clocking Szeth's death, and blundered by thinking they were still alive when the thread read they said they did would have indicated otherwise. 

Illwei Steel

[Mat he/him]

@Archer

What’s your theory on the elim team? I’m planning a reread first thing tomorrow morning and am curious to know that view beforehand.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I'd rather hoped it would tell me whether I'm being hammered by two elims or three

This line (I think) is you implying I’m evil, which you obviously will never sell me on.

[Teia she/her]

I have no clue who to vote for this round. I almost feel like Archer is trying a little too hard to be seen as crew. Anyone else feel like that?

11 hours ago, Archer said:

EDIT: @Walin, @Teia, which of you found the Secret piece? I assume anyone who posted would have claimed it if they had. 

Also, what’s up with this? How would anyone claiming this help? Wouldn’t it just prompt the crew’s elim to wipe them out?

I don’t think I want to vote quite yet because I don’t have a solid enough opinion. 

[Illwei]

18 minutes ago, Teia said:

I almost feel like Archer is trying a little too hard to be seen as crew.

yes, and he does this as an elim a lot imo. calling the town his "team" and whatnot

[Archer he/him]

5 hours ago, Teia said:

I have no clue who to vote for this round. I almost feel like Archer is trying a little too hard to be seen as crew. Anyone else feel like that?

Also, what’s up with this? How would anyone claiming this help? Wouldn’t it just prompt the crew’s elim to wipe them out?

I don’t think I want to vote quite yet because I don’t have a solid enough opinion. 

To be fair, the way I was going, had the round ended at the usual time, I would have been killed. At least this worked to get your attention. :D.

There's probably not any Alliance left, ya. They had a coinshot, and the Reavers have growth potential. So the night kill is almost definitely going to kill a Crew member anyway. Secrecy isn't fooling the elims. Whereas telling us publicly reduces the risk that we mis-exe you, and allows for better coordination since we know someone who can be trusted. It's kind of a moot point now, but that was the theory. 

9 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Archer

What’s your theory on the elim team? I’m planning a reread first thing tomorrow morning and am curious to know that view beforehand.

This line (I think) is you implying I’m evil, which you obviously will never sell me on.

I'll tell you it's just Illwei-Steel+/-someone who got converted C1. But you-Illwei-Steel makes a lot of sense to me, based on the votes of today. 

[Mat he/him]

Quote

Ok, time to lay my cards fully down on the table. Archer PMed me under the impression I was an Alliance member. I’m not. He, however, claimed he was also Alliance, so I claimed Alliance too to see what would happen. After some back-and-forth, I convinced him of my claim, and he told me he was actually a Reaver, and wanted to form an Alliance with the Alliance and go for a joint win . My vote on you was to further convince him I was Alliance and could be trusted. I was hoping to get more information out of him, but I can’t do that if I’m dead. If I get exed, you will see that I’m Crew, so you know you can trust the following information: Mat, Dannnex, Illwei, Ash, and TUA are not Reavers. They could be Alliance or the Operative, but they are not Reavers. Thank you for your time.

That’s from Szeth, D1.

It still could be completely accurate.

I’m at Archer/Teia right now but I’m absolutely not discounting a team with Illwei or Steel. Walin it’s just impossible to know and I think Devo is the Operative if anything other than Crew.

[Elandera she/her]

One hour! Get your votes and actions in!

[Teia she/her]

For pure lack of better reasoning for anyone else, I’ll vote Archer.

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Well it looks like Archer's not on a three person elim team except with Walin. He could definitely be on a two person team, which is the number I assume the elims started at. They could have gotten conversions if Lotus/TUA killed more people than we know about, but even so statistically there's a 56.25% base chance of no conversion so I'm willing to take a shot on Archer. If there are three elims we don't have much of a chance anyway.

[Elandera she/her]

That's the turn. I'm in a meeting, so it'll be a bit before the next turn is posted. 

[Elandera she/her]

Cycle Four: We Have Done the Impossible, and That Makes Us Mighty

write up eventually, probably

---

Archer has been executed, but survived!
Matrim's Dice has been attacked, but survived!

Vote Count:

Archer (5) - Illwei, Matrim, Devotary, Teia, Steeldancer
Steeldancer (1) - Archer

No additional pieces have been revealed. One piece of the Secret of Miranda has been revealed so far.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Illwei
2. Ashbringer Alliance Companion
3. @Matrim's Dice
4. Lotus Crew Mercenary
5. Szeth_Pancakes Crew Doctor
6. @Devotary of Spontaneity
7. The Unknown Aon Alliance Mercenary
8. @Walin
9. Dannnnnnnex Crew Companion
10. @Teia
11. @Steeldancer
12. @Archer

This turn will end Wednesday, December 29 at 12 p.m. (noon) PST.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Elandera

[Mat he/him]

…

Ok

Edit: @Archer, why didn’t you mention you would survive? (I ask this only because routine needs it to be asked)

Edited December 28, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Illwei]

Matrim is the last of the three people who were on Archer D1, all of them were killed

lol

Archer

[Mat he/him]

Oh also Teia is essentially confirmed Reaver because I Shepherd’d them. Elan says that a Shepherd would show as an attack/survive.

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Matrim is the last of the three people who were on Archer D1, all of them were killed

lol

Archer

Tbh I forgot that I had voted Archer D1

Edit: @Elandera

Teia

Edited December 28, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Illwei]

@Elandera Would a shepherd roleblock show as an attacked but survived?

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

@Elandera Would a shepherd roleblock show as an attacked but survived?

 

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Elan says that a Shepherd would show as an attack/survive.