Strategy

[Spren of Kindness]

So, there's a year between Oathbringer and Rhythm of War (I'll learn to spell that if it kills me), and I want to know what strategies Dalinar's coalition (what is it's actual name) are going to be using.

Warning: I don't know what I'm talking about, I am not a strategist.

Jasnah strikes me as the type who might be pragmatic enough to go for the scorched earth policy, though that's a little implausible from what we've seen of their position.  That could have changed, though.  Obviously, they have the ability for strike teams, thanks to the Windrunners.  Actually, I'm gonna go on a tangent here, I'll put it in a spoiler.

Spoiler

Windrunners as advance forces - how would that work?  My first thought would be send a Windrunner with Blade (and Plate if possible), and squires/other top-notch fighters in, have them clear out a path/secure an area.  However, Shardbearers can't hold ground, so I'll assume Radiants might have a problem with that too.  So they would need to have back up nearby.  

And here's where the other orders come in:  Namely Lightweavers and Truthwatchers.  Could they hide ordinary soldiers with Lightweaving?  The answer is probably yes, but how many?  Or could Willshapers and Elsecallers move people through Shadesmar?  

To summarize: Windrunners to clear a path, Illumination and/or Transportation to get everyone else there.

This is most likely wrong, but I like it.

I'd also like to see how the environments play a role.  Obviously, Urithiru's in the mountains so it would be pretty tricky to assault it.  Any attack would probably be seen from a good distance and again - Windrunner strike teams.  Though some of the Fused can fly, but not all of them, if I recall correctly.  Then there's the Horneater peaks, which again, would probably be hard to attack.  I figure Shin would be tough to get to as well.

What about the other nations?  What do y'all think?

[thejopen27]

Windrunners make great infiltrators, but terrible raiders. Windrunners could never execute a scorched earth plan.

One thing I'd love to see in the end of book 4 is a Shin force riding out of the mountains to conquer the world again led by the honor blades and all mounted on warhorses.

Edited July 6, 2020 by thejopen27

[Elsecaller_17.5]

13 hours ago, Spren of Kindness said:

Jasnah strikes me as the type who might be pragmatic enough to go for the scorched earth policy, though that's a little implausible from what we've seen of their position

This might be straight up impossible with the existence of soulcasters.

I suspect transportation won't have a huge role just because we only have 1 radiant that can do it. Really that applies to all orders but windrunners right now.

Shin wil l probably be a target for the coalition assuming they come to the small conclusion we have that they are secretly hoarding shards.

[Karger]

Scorched earth might be difficult on Roshar.  It rains pretty regularly and there is no dry season.  Additionally it won't do much against the fused and your own army might need the supplies.  Finally the people that would have less food will probably be the human slaves not any of the parshe.

[thejopen27]

What do the Fused care what you do to the land. 

“They break the land itself! They want it, but in their rage they will destroy it. Like the jealous man burns his rich things rather than let them be taken by his enemies! They come!”    

[Spren of Kindness]

2 hours ago, thejopen27 said:

Windrunners make great infiltrators, but terrible raiders. Windrunners could never execute a scorched earth plan.

Scorched earth, you're right, but I think Windrunners might be able to pull off raids, they can get in and out very quickly.

[+Hoiditthroughthegrapevine]

The stage is most likely being set for the retaking of key kingdoms. Jasnah doesn't strike me as the type of ruler who would be content to rule Alethkar from Urithiru, and there was the revelation that Rock is most likely the new king of the Horneaters. Especially with the buildup of Odium's forces on the Shadesmar side of Cultivation's perpendicularity, the Horneater peaks are going to be a key Hotspot in book four.

The one year gap most likely exists to dispense with the logistical details of troop movements, supply chains, and inconsequential border skirmishes.

Looking at the map of how forces are arrayed at the end of OB, major Flashpoints would seem to be Aimia (with all parties with power, the ghostbloods, the shin, Ishar, Odium, Dalinar and co, and the Sleepless having a vested interest in the most likely location of the Dawnshards), the Valley, the bordering provinces of Azir, Alethkar, the Shattered Plains (with troops in motion gemhearts for soul cast resupply are going to be even more essential) and depending on where the Shin come down as the war plays out, Iri Barbatharnam and possibly Azir itself.

I think the book will open with much of the opening game done, the pieces will be positioned, the broad strategy will be outlined and we'll see the middle game of the war for Roshar unfold.

[jamesbondsmith]

Would Windrunners even go for pre-emptive strikes, given how they're focused on protection (if only to avoid losing their powers, regardless of their personal beliefs)? I suppose they could interpret it as 'best defense is a good offense', but with enough mental gymnastics you could probably justify almost anything.

[thejopen27]

13 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

 

 

 

Why did you mark New Natanatan as Odium's forces? It's part of Dalinar's coalition. Why the Horneater peaks? We don't know they're occupied on this side. Why did you mark Aimia at all? Isn't it abandoned? Why didn't you mark Rira and Babatharnam as occupied by the Irians?

[thejopen27]

13 hours ago, Spren of Kindness said:

Scorched earth, you're right, but I think Windrunners might be able to pull off raids, they can get in and out very quickly.

I suppose they could steal weapons and break war machines, but I don't think they'd go for stealing food.

[Doomdrinker]

A scorched earth tactic could certainly work, it's not just about trying to keep as much resources as you can for yourself it's about denying them to the enemy. Burning crops, destroying shelter, sabotaging any piece of useful equipment. Sure soulcasters mean you'll never be able to starve the enemy army's but Kolinar was a great example that soulcasters cannot feed a nation on their own. 

Given that we have characters like Jasnah and Taravangium not to mention odium himself I think it's only a question when we are going to see strategies like scorched earth start to be put into place.

[thejopen27]

22 minutes ago, Doomdrinker said:

A scorched earth tactic could certainly work, it's not just about trying to keep as much resources as you can for yourself it's about denying them to the enemy. Burning crops, destroying shelter, sabotaging any piece of useful equipment. Sure soulcasters mean you'll never be able to starve the enemy army's but Kolinar was a great example that soulcasters cannot feed a nation on their own. 

Given that we have characters like Jasnah and Taravangium not to mention odium himself I think it's only a question when we are going to see strategies like scorched earth start to be put into place.

But the enemy is Odium, not the Singers. Using Odious tactics against him is self defeating as he will just use the hate and anger that a scorched earth style war engenders to make himself more powerful, fuel retributions, and bring more people to Odium. 

[+Oltux72]

On 06/07/2020 at 6:17 AM, Spren of Kindness said:

  Hide contents

Windrunners as advance forces - how would that work?  My first thought would be send a Windrunner with Blade (and Plate if possible), and squires/other top-notch fighters in, have them clear out a path/secure an area.  However, Shardbearers can't hold ground, so I'll assume Radiants might have a problem with that too.  So they would need to have back up nearby.  

And here's where the other orders come in:  Namely Lightweavers and Truthwatchers.  Could they hide ordinary soldiers with Lightweaving?  The answer is probably yes, but how many?  Or could Willshapers and Elsecallers move people through Shadesmar?  

To summarize: Windrunners to clear a path, Illumination and/or Transportation to get everyone else there.

This is most likely wrong, but I like it.

 

Well, you do not want your troops to be surrounded. If you strike deeply into enemy territory, it is for hit and run.

On 06/07/2020 at 6:17 AM, Spren of Kindness said:

I'd also like to see how the environments play a role.  Obviously, Urithiru's in the mountains so it would be pretty tricky to assault it.  Any attack would probably be seen from a good distance and again - Windrunner strike teams.  Though some of the Fused can fly, but not all of them, if I recall correctly.  Then there's the Horneater peaks, which again, would probably be hard to attack.

Not really to a flying enemy with access to Shadesmar. You can isolate each peak and attack them from two sides and the air. They will fall easily.

On 06/07/2020 at 6:17 AM, Spren of Kindness said:

What about the other nations?  What do y'all think?

Look at a map and consider what each side needs to do to join its forces.

 

[Spren of Kindness]

3 hours ago, thejopen27 said:

I suppose they could steal weapons and break war machines, but I don't think they'd go for stealing food.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

Of course, it's entirely possible that I've been staring too long at that stupid graph I made for skydiving and I should stop trying to understand military strategy.

[Dunkum]

I think a lot is going to depend on how recruitment has been going during the timeskip.  at the end of oathbringer, most orders only have 1 member, if that.  I think the lightweavers with 1 member and 1 squire (who was still stuck in Kholinar, if he even survived), are easily the second most populous order.  only the windrunners have substantially more, but even then there are only maybe a couple dozen sworn windrunners, and the squires are dependent on the full knights for their powers.  those sorts of numbers are gonna constrain your options.

If they've been able to recruit more during the interval, then there are a few things you can do.  for instance a strike force of a windrunner, and squires, plus maybe a lightweaver or two and an edgedancer or truthwatcher for healing could probably stir up local resistance forces inside enemy territory and fight a pretty decent guerilla war.  they might even be able to recruit more squires and/or knights from among the populace as they go, potentially increasing their strength.  but this strategy doesnt work if you dont have enough knights to risk losing them.

[+Hoiditthroughthegrapevine]

5 hours ago, thejopen27 said:

Why did you mark New Natanatan as Odium's forces? It's part of Dalinar's coalition. Why the Horneater peaks? We don't know they're occupied on this side. Why did you mark Aimia at all? Isn't it abandoned? Why didn't you mark Rira and Babatharnam as occupied by the Irians?

The Puuli interlude heavily suggests that Odium's forces will come from the Origin of Storms and land at New Natanatan, making this a strategic point, possibly the landing point that will be used to assault the shattere plains and seize the Oathgate.

With Odium's forces gathering at Cultivation's perpendicularity in Shadesmar, it seems like a foregone conclusion that at some point they will cross over from the Cognitive Realm to the Physical Realm using the perpendicularity, and most likely in strength to try and hold both sides of one of the most strategically important locations in all of Roshar. If Cultivation had another perpendicularity in the Purelakes (as is suggested by the 17th Shard searching for Hoid interlude), that likewise will probably become a serious Flashpoint in the coming conflict.

Aimia is marked not because there are forces currently amassed there, but rather I think it's a point of special strategic interest to all powerful parties, due to the strong likelihood that the weapons capable of destroying worlds are located there. I think the Shin, Odium, the Ghostbloods, and Dalinar's Coalition all know of their existence, and a point is coming where the fate of Roshar will hang in the balance of who controls the Dawnshards. 

In OB I recall (correct me if I am wrong) that Dalinar received intelligence that Odium's forces were active in Iri, and that the Iri were on the move (and I recall it being mentioned that they were moving into New Barbatharnam), this is just speculation, but it seems to me likely that they would be there for two reasons. 1: To amass forces prior to an assault on Aimia and 2: To make an overland assault on the Purelakes (if Cultivation does in fact have a second perpendicularity there).

Quote

Hoiditthroughthegrapevine

Can a Shard have more than one Shardpool?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes.

Hoiditthroughthegrapevine

Does Cultivation have another Shardpool in the Purelake?

Brandon Sanderson

RAFO.

Skyward Seattle signing (Nov. 10, 2018)

This is a confirmation of the principle of multiple perpendicularities, and I think the 17th shard interlude heavily implies that this is the case.

[thejopen27]

4 minutes ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

The Puuli interlude heavily suggests that Odium's forces will come from the Origin of Storms and land at New Natanatan, making this a strategic point, possibly the landing point that will be used to assault the shattere plains and seize the Oathgate.

A. that's your speculation not confirmed, it could mean something else.

B. it hasn't happened yet so you can't mark it as belonging to Odium

The Irians invaded Rira and babatharnam and occupied them already by the ending of Oathbringer

Edited July 7, 2020 by thejopen27

[Doomdrinker]

5 hours ago, thejopen27 said:

But the enemy is Odium, not the Singers. Using Odious tactics against him is self defeating as he will just use the hate and anger that a scorched earth style war engenders to make himself more powerful, fuel retributions, and bring more people to Odium. 

He the enemy is odium, an entity that is many thousands of years old and wielding a shard of God's power. I really don't think they can afford not to take every advantage they can and scorched earth is a brutally effective means of denying your enemy resources. Even if this just means the singer's have to dedicate more of their man power into farming and manufacturing to keep up with supplys then that's less manpower they can dedicate towards new soldiers.

 

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Not really to a flying enemy with access to Shadesmar. You can isolate each peak and attack them from two sides and the air. They will fall easily.

 

Not necessarily, the howneaters are aware of the perpendicularity so they could prepare for soldiers to attack from there. As for attacking the peaks unless the fused can capture them all on their own it's gonna be incredibly difficult for regular soldiers to take the peaks. Now seigeing the peaks would by contrast be very easy to surround each one and carefully bring them down isolated and weakened, this would take quite a bit of time so I doubt we'll see the peaks fallen in the 1 year gap. Perhaps one of the events in RoW is the siege and fall of the some/all of the horneater peaks 

[thejopen27]

24 minutes ago, Doomdrinker said:

He the enemy is odium, an entity that is many thousands of years old and wielding a shard of God's power. I really don't think they can afford not to take every advantage they can and scorched earth is a brutally effective means of denying your enemy resources. Even if this just means the singer's have to dedicate more of their man power into farming and manufacturing to keep up with supplys then that's less manpower they can dedicate towards new soldiers.

Neither the Fused nor Odium care what happens to the land or the people, the Radiants do. The Radiants are also bound by oaths that prevent them from behaving dishonorably making them poor at pillaging

[Bigmikey357]

I think less scorched earth,  more infiltration and conversion.  See Venli and Rlain, use Renarin and his moving blindspot. Some Listeners will come to the Honor side because they won't want to be a host to the Fused.  Some will choose Honor for the promise of power, or the possibility of becoming Nesua Kadal, something denied them previously.  Odium's forces aren't as monolithic as they seem from the outside and Dalinar has a dream pipeline to their biggest propaganda agent. There are ways to win that don't turn Roshar into another Ashyn. 

[thejopen27]

16 minutes ago, Bigmikey357 said:

I think less scorched earth,  more infiltration and conversion.  See Venli and Rlain, use Renarin and his moving blindspot. Some Listeners will come to the Honor side because they won't want to be a host to the Fused.  Some will choose Honor for the promise of power, or the possibility of becoming Nesua Kadal, something denied them previously.  Odium's forces aren't as monolithic as they seem from the outside and Dalinar has a dream pipeline to their biggest propaganda agent. There are ways to win that don't turn Roshar into another Ashyn. 

The thousand Listeners that escaped are Roshars best hope. A way to bind the humans and Singers together against Odium, the true enemy

[Negative_Null]

Brandon is definitely headed towards a unification of Singer and Human (although considering how wrong I've been about other plot twists, maybe ignore me). Venli will be a key piece of it somehow, but unless she or Dalinar can somehow extend protection to other Singers, any kind of underground singer rebellion will not go very well

[The Skybreakers]

1 hour ago, Negative_Null said:

Brandon is definitely headed towards a unification of Singer and Human (although considering how wrong I've been about other plot twists, maybe ignore me). Venli will be a key piece of it somehow, but unless she or Dalinar can somehow extend protection to other Singers, any kind of underground singer rebellion will not go very well

I agree. I can imagine though, radiants slowly influencing the singers, and then when it comes to a battle they announce that they will give freedom to any singer who joins them.

 

It'd have to be done in a way that the singers wouldn't know they were being influenced, or that they even feel like joining the alethi. It'd have to be like a split second decision as they decide that the alethi guarantee freedom far more

[Negative_Null]

I'm thinking more of being able to protect them from Odium. I don't know exactly how much power he has over them, but Venli was terrified of him until Tambre was there to protect her

[The Skybreakers]

10 hours ago, Negative_Null said:

I'm thinking more of being able to protect them from Odium. I don't know exactly how much power he has over them, but Venli was terrified of him until Tambre was there to protect her

Interesting,

 

Though I don't see an instance where the radiants will be there for the singers... Kaladin helped them for a few weeks and he couldn't protect elhokar because of it- the other radiants may decide, or be advised, to stay away from all that so they can keep their goal in mind.

 

and not break down in the middle of battle

Edited July 9, 2020 by The Skybreakers