Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Fifth Scholar]

And the cycle has closed! Someone’s getting Vadenfort’s idea of an open mind. You’ll get to see just exactly who in an hour...

[Karnatheon]

Just now, Mark IV said:

Lars turned to face Antor again "I'm so glad you decided to change your mind." 

I love this pun. So well written.

[Fifth Scholar]

Exepins pushed pen to paper, recording supplies for Lord Agelmar. No, not him. His imbecile apprentice Aliath was performing that service for the lord, now. No, he was in the Blight now, recording for Moiraine Sedai, tallying the food they all had in reserve. It was easy work, if arduous, and Exepins’ mind wandered. The camp had certainly had its share of battles since reaching the fringes of the Blight. It had begun with the attack on him, of course, the aftereffects of which Moiraine’s healing could not fully dispel. His head still ached, with the Dark One’s own will seeming to try to split it in half, part of what was dragging this blasted paperwork for so long. Then the attack on the village youth. Exepins always was saddened to see such men die. He had seemed like a good lad, one that would have been a hardy captain had he stayed in the Borderlands with them, disciplined and focused—and strong.

He shook his head, refocusing on the pile of papers on the floor of his tent with a grimace. The injury, and recent events, must have really gotten into him if he was letting his mind run off during scribing. Setting to his papers with a vengeance, he banished all thoughts from his head, setting his mind to the task of finishing up. Only then could he rejoin the others.

 

---

The others were discussing the best way to kill him, conversing in indignant whispers.

“He’s clearly still a Darkfriend. I mean, just look at how he’s not even talking to us! Any man with a true fear of the Light would be begging for us to examine him!”

“Aw, stuff it, you sound too much like that dolt Whitecloak. He’s a Darkfriend from his survival! It’d take the Dark One’s own luck to live through a thumping like the one I gave him yesterday.” A muted chortle followed the statement, and was quickly extinguished.

Callor’s voice could be heard as well. “Anyone a witch like that Moiraine figure offers healing to must be a fellow Darkfriend. That is the reason we are killing him, the reason I sent two people to distract Moiraine with talk of ter’angreal, yes? Let’s figure this out.”

A sigh emanated from the group. “What, then, do you propose? If we simply kill him, Moiraine will be no less displeased. And we can’t exactly fail to be traced to any murder that did happen with him.”

Callor’s eyes could have frozen a candle flame. “I have a plan.”

 

The Blight did not think. Not in the way that a man thought, at least. But it did know exactly what it wanted—to advance. To swallow whole. Such were its limitations, and its advantages. But it constantly sought a new path, a way around the flashing swords of the humans that kept its creepers and tendrils at bay.

It found one at last, a small barrier in place in one patch of ground, a weakness it could break through. Two, actually. The Creepers coagulated, forming a rough hammer which crushed the layers of dirt separating the Blight from a shallow trench that had been dug quickly. From the two holes it rushed in, Creepers swallowing the trench with a speed that defied the eye. Eventually, the Creepers met in the middle, unable to further advance out. Yet a rough circle had been created, and its interior was vulnerable. And within the circle stood a man in a tent, hunched over his scribework, blissfully unaware that camping out so close to the Blight had been a poor choice.

Exepins’ fellow warriors watched as the Blight eagerly swallowed the circle: land, tent, and the man they believed to be a Darkfriend.

Except, of course, that he wasn’t.

 

---

Night 2 has begun! It will end in 22 hours’ time at 22:00 EST, or 3 AM GMT, December the tenth.

Snipexe was lynched! He was a Hardy Fal Dara Warrior.

Vote Count:

Snipexe (4): Karnatheon, BrightnessRadiant, Mr Doctor, Mark IV, Rathmaskal

Young Bard (1): Steeldancer

Rathmaskal (1): Randuir

Droughtbringer (1): Furamirionind

Xinoehp512 (1): Ark1002

Karnatheon (1): Snipexe

The Eye has 38 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 1 health remaining, and is the Outermost Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 11.

Please remember that PMs are closed.

Ookla the Libre has failed to post in-thread for three straight cycles, and has thus been replaced by Sart. Everyone please welcome him, and thank him for pinch-hitting! @Ookla of the East and @Droughtbringer need to post as well, or suffer the same fate.

Rules Clarifications will be edited in when I have the will to find them all.

Player List:

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias
6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will
11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills
15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother
16. STINK, a formless thread in the pattern with less than 24 hours to identify himself before the Creator does
17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power
18. BrightnessRadiant, a formless thread in the pattern with less than 24 hours to identify herself before the Creator does
19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Sart, a formless thread in the Pattern with less than 24 hours to identify himself before the Creator does

Edited December 10, 2018 by Ookla the White-Cloaked

[Karnatheon]

Well. It took all of my self control to turn my phone off for an hour so I could stop looking at it, in a mix of anticipation and fear. I'm truly sorry Snipexe. I accept that in 48 hours I will almost surely be the next lynch. I will continue to post my analysis in that time, however. In the hopes that once I am lynched and am revealed to be village people can read back on it and take it for what it is. To go back to my post that started the whole thing in the first place, given that Snipexe was village, that gives us a couple clues as to the elim team composition. As a few people agreed with me before the lynch vote, the odds of Fain not using his action to kill Snipexe was not very likely. I feel that this indicates one of our inactive players is Padan Fain, or the elim team in general is not very clear on the rules so they didn't catch the same connection as I did. It is also entirely possible that the elim team decided not to take out Snipexe, and were going to slowly try to point this fact out to get us to mis-lynch him, which ended up happening without them needing to interfere. This is all I have the heart to write at the moment, as it's late and I am emotionally drained. I still intend to participate in discussion tomorrow, though I assume most people won't trust anything I have to say. Again, I'm sorry I was the driving force behind this lynch, and I hope I don't lose you all the game because of it. 

Also worth noting, no votes were negated again. Not even by the Ring defense. So that's a thing. I look forward to seeing all the comments people make when I wake up in the morning. Interested to see how quickly I get stomped on. Sorry if this sounds too sad, I'm just very tired and should probably be sleeping. Good night. 

[Mark IV]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Well. It took all of my self control to turn my phone off for an hour so I could stop looking at it, in a mix of anticipation and fear. I'm truly sorry Snipexe. I accept that in 48 hours I will almost surely be the next lynch. I will continue to post my analysis in that time, however. In the hopes that once I am lynched and am revealed to be village people can read back on it and take it for what it is. To go back to my post that started the whole thing in the first place, given that Snipexe was village, that gives us a couple clues as to the elim team composition. As a few people agreed with me before the lynch vote, the odds of Fain not using his action to kill Snipexe was not very likely. I feel that this indicates one of our inactive players is Padan Fain, or the elim team in general is not very clear on the rules so they didn't catch the same connection as I did. It is also entirely possible that the elim team decided not to take out Snipexe, and were going to slowly try to point this fact out to get us to mis-lynch him, which ended up happening without them needing to interfere. This is all I have the heart to write at the moment, as it's late and I am emotionally drained. I still intend to participate in discussion tomorrow, though I assume most people won't trust anything I have to say. Again, I'm sorry I was the driving force behind this lynch, and I hope I don't lose you all the game because of it. 

Also worth noting, no votes were negated again. Not even by the Ring defense. So that's a thing. I look forward to seeing all the comments people make when I wake up in the morning. Interested to see how quickly I get stomped on. Sorry if this sounds too sad, I'm just very tired and should probably be sleeping. Good night. 

Snip had 5 people vote for him. The count shows that only 4 of them were effective. 
It was also possible that the elim team left Snip alone because he'd already been lynched once for relatively non-random reasons (by D1 standards). So, they expected we'd lynch him again anyways, for whatever reason. I know I would have left him alone. 

 

Edit: There was a 40% chance for a single vote to be negated by the defend action. Thought I'd put it in.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Mark IV
Statistic

[Rathmaskal]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Also worth noting, no votes were negated again. Not even by the Ring defense. So that's a thing.

Count again...  One vote (mine) was negated.

[Karnatheon]

Oh. Ok. Guess I can't count now either. 

[Mark IV]

2 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Count again...  One vote (mine) was negated.

How do you know it was yours?

[Rathmaskal]

I was notified via GM PM.

[Karnatheon]

He was probably told in PM. The GMs have told me my defend actions have been successful that way.

[Mark IV]

Ah. The negation was because of the defend action though, I assume?

[Furamirionind]

@Ookla the Ring Don't worry about it. We may lynch you, but we may not.  Please stay involved as dead players can still win games.  Assuming you are village, the more you say the more we progress towards winning, and player's deaths always tell a lot.  (My first game was basically a free for all game (LG49) where at the beginning of the game there was no elim/village factions, I ended up making an alliance with Fifth and Steeldancer, and then betrayed them the next turn when it was my turn to help them (after they helped me). There is much worse you could have done, and driving a mislynch happens to the best of us) (except Orlok apperantly)

I will either edit in, or repost my actual message, this is just a response to Karn's post.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Callsign: Jato

[Sart]

Okay, still trying to catch up with this game. I've got finals this week, so don't expect too much activity, but this is a good break from studying. If I understand the rules correctly, to defend the outer-ring, we needed to muster a defense of 8. One role (al'Lan) can contribute 2 defense, but all other roles contribute 1 defense. This requires using an action. There is also an evil role that reduces the camp's defense by 1. Since the outer ring held, we can conclude that at least 7 people did an action that actively helped the village.

Therefore, I'm going to do something stupid. I will not vote for anyone who voted today. We're more likely, at least in my view, to catch an Eliminator by going after the inactives. That may be naive, but it should be an interesting strategy. At the very least, I believe that Padan Fain is inactive. I would have taken a free kill any day of the week, but instead they left Snipexe alive. That just reads as laziness.

[Furamirionind]

We are still on the first Ring... So either people didn't pay attention to my recommendation of who should protect, I underestimated the amount of players in those roles, or I accounted too much for inactivity. I have no way of knowing which of those is the case, however other players may know.  Unfortunately, that cannot be effectively communicated without letting slip who is which character without Mat's PMs... So I don't know what do do now.

Assuming 5 elims, we are out of spare lynches.  I have been starting to think along the lines of only being 4 elims (or maybe even 3) for a bit now, as it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that the game would be on the brink of ending D3.

I am too tired to edit this anymore (I have been working on this post since rollover). Hopefully this makes sense. (Towards the end, I did less and less editing sooo....) 

Quote

I wasn't saying his post didn't matter? I don't think a 3 paragraph explanation in response to someone accusing me says that? I hope not, I'd feel bad if it did. I was merely trying to explain my reasoning and my posts that he questioned and seemed to feel strange on. Just giving him more clarity into what my thought process had been.

Also, I paused here and caught up on the rest of the cycle and since I quoted you I'll try and address other questions I had for you. I don't really understand why a villager would want Rand to claim in thread since losing him would be very bad for the village. There can be elims in the anon docs and if they find the Green Man then, as you said, then they could proceed to take out the Green Man and Rand one after the other. I don't know if an elim would have suggested this tho. It seems to risky. I'm not quite sure whether to read it as NAI or to lean village on you just for saying something that could be potentially dangerous because elims tend to avoid stuff like that. For now I'll keep it at NAI because it doesn't sound like a good thing to do for the village.

I also wanted to point out that you also said that you thought Devo was probably killed because they hadn't posted a lot of suspicions and that was my opinion too. I guess it's still NAI tho since even an elim could give a reason like that for why someone died. 

Not sure what to think about your action being redirected to Snipexe. If he was an elim then I'd think they'd not want him in the spotlight more than he already was last cycle. They would probably have known that you would reveal the redirect in thread or that there was a chance you might. That makes me lean slightly more village on Snipexe.

Hmm, sorry, I didn't mean to say that you thought his post didn't matter... It was just... I don't know. I was trying to describe your speech pattern in a sentence... So naturally I am struggling to communicate that.

I like brainstorming in-thread as IRL brainstorming is very useful for cultivating ideas.  I ended that paragraph with saying Rand shouldn't claim, but it may be worth considering if we enter the late game and the green man is still alive.  If the green man is known, they will obviously be the target before Rand, so Rand basically has a minimum of 3 lives (Green man, Rand + 1, then Rand.)  The thing is, if the elims attack someone, and that person is protected, we know almost certainly that that person is Rand.  If we lynch Rand, Fain can now get passed the Green man and kill him, so we NEED to not lynch Rand.  So if it comes down to it, it might make sense for Rand to claim, because as long as the Green Man is alive, it may actually extend Rand's life.  I am not saying to do it, just consider as we progress through the game.  It is definitly not something to do now.

...You make an interesting point with people guessing I may tell people about the redirect... I did talk a bit about my play-style in the elim doc last game... But since anyone could read that, that doesn't really help.

@Sart Thank you for stepping in (unless you are an elim : P ), I look forward to hearing from you when you get a chance.

@Ookla the Unprepared Both other games I played with you, I seem to recall you being more active in thread, or when you weren't, you were quite up front about why.  This could be because of the extra challenge with your posting style this game, but I would love to hear more from you.

 

If I had to pick one player, I think I am most suspicious of @randuir right now based on the Snipexe interactions.  Here is where he gives his reasoning for voting on Snipexe:

Spoiler

 

Quote

Snipexe stands out in a negative way right now, the reason for that being that his posts says absolutely nothing, in way too many words.

  On 12/7/2018 at 5:59 AM, Ookla the Skeptical said:

I’m enjoying all of the thoughts that have been posted so far in the game. Just figured I’d quick say, I don’t think I’ll be in service (or have WiFi) from roughly 6:00pm MST to 10:00am.  

One thing I’ve been thinking about a bit: It will be interesting to see the way the potential for accidental vote negation via defending (or sabotage) will effect lynches. Depending on how the dice role, there is potential for the entire lynch to change, assuming many people are defending every day.

He mentions enjoying the thoughts so far, but doesn't actually share why he enjoys them. Does he like the analysis being done? Does he agree, or disagree with what's being said? Just saying you're enjoying something doesn't tell anyone anything. The same goes for his second paragraph, in which he brings up that he's interested in seeing how the vote negation from the defense actions will play out. Though he's not wrong that it might have a big effect on lynches, he just leaves it at this one statement, rather than providing some suggestions for ways to alleviate this problem.

That's enough for me to toss a vote on SnipExe(Ookla the Skeptical) at this early stage. 

This is completely reasonable, however, D2:

Quote

Snipexe (slight elim)

My position on Snipexe remains unchanged, and I hope to hear more from either him or another warrior confirming his presence in the doc soon (and his current vote is something something pot and kettle).

...

So overall conclusion: A lot of people need to do a lot more posting, and in particular I'd like to see some analysis from SnipExe, as otherwise chances are that's where my vote will land again.

Quote

It's not a gigantic mistake, but it's also kinda NAI right now. Maybe you got redirected. Maybe the elims didn't submit a redirect action so you, as elim!Furami, could safely claim to be redirected.  Assuming you're speaking the truth, I don't think there's much point to redirecting you to SnipExe, apart from trying to somehow make you wonder about why they picked him in the first place. Unless the Elims forgot to ask whether you'd be told to who you got redirected, and redirected you to one of their own so they use the redirect as a scan for Moraine.

Hmmm, this requires some more thinking about, and makes me want to resolve SnipExe's slot even more.

You want to resolve Snipexe's role even more, yet you don't vote to lynch him? You basically led the Lynch D1, and are saying you are more suspicious.

Quote

@Callsign: Jato, the reason I brought up you doing a lot of the math is that that is usually something I do in one of my posts, especially when I've taken the time to do some work beforehand (which is not the case this game), so I mentioned it to show why I would not be including something like that in my post.

I probably shouldn't pick at this anymore, but you said I did "most of the mathing" when all I did was touch on it, and mention there was a lot left to do.  I did say I would be doing more, but I still don't think this is an amazing reason to hold back from doing the math yourself. Even when Devotary did math, I still did it myself to make sure she wasn't misleading us, and that she didn't just do it incorrectly.  People should be double checking me similarly when I do math. If someone feels like they can trust someone else's math, I would question that, as I could just "slip up" on a couple numbers and lead you all down the wrong path.  So trusting me D1 seems suspicious.  Especially for a veteran.

Quote

SnipExe being hardy is tricky. If he's not Aginor, I can see the elims attacking him on the off-chance that he's Rand and the Green man is sleeping, but at the same time attacking him and finding him to be protected would pretty much guarantee that he's village. Perrin, I'd like to ask you to take careful consideration if you're considering protecting SnipExe, especially if he or someone else is asking you to in a doc you're in.

This post was made right after Snip's first lynch. I still don't know exactly what to make of this, but the first sentence rings similarly to me as what Karn said someone on the elim team should have posted to get us to lynch Snip. The part about Perrin sound weird to me too. If Snipexe was an elim, he (or an ally) probably wouldn't be asking for protection, as that would be suspicious.  If he was Rand, he also wouldn't be asking for protection, as that would give away who is Rand, AND he has the Green Man anyway.

Quote

Randuir: Commentary on Rings and their usefulness. 2nd Post: Commentary on elim quantity(4). 3rd Post: Poke vote on all inactive. Gives some advice to people to defend. Says they think I am village. Gives Furaminoid, Mr Doctor, Devotary a temp pass. Votes for Snipexe and explains why. N1: 4th Post: Brings up math. Discusses Snipexe being Hardy. Reminds people to defend. 5th Post: Says the forgot about Creeper kills when saying losing Rand would be ok, reiterates we shouldn’t depend on Rand for Forsaken kills in late game. 6th Post: Response to Ark. 7th Post: D2: Agrees my statements about Mat are suspicious, lets it slide for time being. 8th Post: Discusses my statements about Mat. Gives me advice. 9th Post: Responds to me. 10th Post: Analysis of players thus far. Seems accurate. 11th Post: Responds to Spinexe’s analysis. Votes for Rath.

```Been very helpful to me in particular. Been very understanding of some of my misunderstandings. Provided lots of good discussion overall. 

You have been very helpful to Karn.  This is my first game with you, so perhaps this is something you typically do... However having a new-active player would be the ideal target to pocket... This isn't evidence, just a counter against someone saying you have been too helpful to be an elim. 

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Callsign: Jato

[Droughtbringer]

20 minutes ago, Sart said:

Okay, still trying to catch up with this game. I've got finals this week, so don't expect too much activity, but this is a good break from studying. If I understand the rules correctly, to defend the outer-ring, we needed to muster a defense of 8. One role (al'Lan) can contribute 2 defense, but all other roles contribute 1 defense. This requires using an action. There is also an evil role that reduces the camp's defense by 1. Since the outer ring held, we can conclude that at least 7 people did an action that actively helped the village.

Therefore, I'm going to do something stupid. I will not vote for anyone who voted today. We're more likely, at least in my view, to catch an Eliminator by going after the inactives. That may be naive, but it should be an interesting strategy. At the very least, I believe that Padan Fain is inactive. I would have taken a free kill any day of the week, but instead they left Snipexe alive. That just reads as laziness.

Welcome, Sart!

@Callsign: Jato is there a reason that you spend tons of time putting evidence against Randuir, but don't place a vote on him?

[Furamirionind]

6 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

Welcome, Sart!

@Callsign: Jato is there a reason that you spend tons of time putting evidence against Randuir, but don't place a vote on him?

Because I didn't start thinking along these lines until after rollover started. What caused me to start looking into Randuir was that I am leaning towards Karn being village, and Snipexe flipping as a hardy warrior. As it is the night turn now, we don't have a vote. So I am not voting this turn.

Edit: Hi Sart, you already posted! : )

Edited December 10, 2018 by Callsign: Jato

[DeTess]

Regarding my theory about Devotaries death, I'm in the Emond's field doc myself. I'm not too worried about sharing this as I suspect at least one person in the doc is evil, and I haven't really been hiding my identity in the doc. Devotary was one of the most active people in the doc, and was very clearly either Devotary or Furami. With his death, that doc has basically gone silent, so my current running theory is that the elims targeted him not just because he was fairly active, but because he was the driving force behind a doc that has a fairly useful power for the village.

@Furamirionind, there's a difference between wanting to resolve someone's alignment, and being suspicious (for example, if Aman had been more active, I'd give my character's right arm to know his alignment, preferably without having to get rid of Aman). I decided to not vote on snipExe today (and would have if I'd been online to see the end-of-cycle discussion, especially Karn's point about Fain) because I wanted to see a bit more from them. I ended up settling on Rathmaskal because he'd been showing similar behaviour as to what made me vote on SnipExe.

I also think that he'd definitely be asking for protection if he was an elim and had access to the warrior doc. Things didn't look good for him, and a successful WGG could have turned things around if he'd been an elim.

As for the numbers, it plays into my Theory for Devotary, but basically what you posted matched what Devotary had written in the Emond's field Doc (showing the exact calculations and all, so I did actually check it), and let me to initially assume you where in the Emond's field doc.

Edited December 10, 2018 by randuir
grammar

[CadCom]

Alright guys, I'm back! Sorry for inactivity. Give me a couple hours to read through everything and post a concious analysis. Once again, I sincerely apologize for being so unhelpful until now. 

[DeTess]

Anyway, let's take a quick look at the SnipExe train from yesterday.

The first vote was made by karnatheon. A that point ARk, Drought, BR, Rathmaskal and young bard all had 1 vote, so the lynch was still wide open. Karnatheon also provided a pretty good reason for his vote, though it should be noted that the elims could have refrained from killing snipexe the way he described precisely so that the argument that larnatheon made could be made. I doubt elim!Karnatheon would have brought it up unless an elim was at risk of being lynched,  because the elims could have easily used the trick he described to kill SnipExe anyway if no one lynched him.

The next one was Mr. Doctor. At that point, Rathmaskal was in the lead with two votes, and mr. doctors vote tied the lynch. Mr. doctor had also already previously listed suspicions of SnipExe.

The next to vote was BR, who had previously been the second vote on Rathmaskal. I understand her reasons as well, but her particular brand of reasoning could also be sued by an elim to set up a logical train of lynches.

Rathmaskal was the 4th, but apparently he was making the vote at the same time as BR. It seems like a pure self-preservation vote, which I don't like but isn't particularly alignment indicative.

Mark was the last one, and his vote bothers me a bit. He seemed to have been somewhat supportive of SnipExe lynch from the get-go, but only jumps on the bandwagon at the last minute.

There's a couple of conclusions I can make based of this. First of all, if Rathmaskal is evil, BR is probably village and vice-versa (but they could both be village) because of the way she first put Rathmaskal in the lead and then later moved her vote off him to go after SnipExe instead. Secondly, if one of Rathmaskal and Mr. Doctor is evil, I'd be more suspicious of the other, though I'd be more suspicious of Rathmaskal if mr. docotor flipped evil than the other way around.

[Droughtbringer]

9 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Because I didn't start thinking along these lines until after rollover started. What caused me to start looking into Randuir was that I am leaning towards Karn being village, and Snipexe flipping as a hardy warrior. As it is the night turn now, we don't have a vote. So I am not voting this turn.

Edit: Hi Sart, you already posted! : )

Obviously I pay attention to if it is a day or a night cycle...

Wow that was a pretty big failure on my part.

 

[Steeldancer]

I am here! I’m glad he wasn’t Rand, but still losing a villager isn’t great. I feel like I’m out of the loop on my suspicions, so for now I’m going to sit on my suspicion of Young Bard for the moment. I might have some time today to post an actual analysis, but I’m not entirely sure it’ll be a complete analysis of every player, but maybe analysis of posts that stick out to me. 

[CadCom]

So it's a bit busier today with calls at my work than I was expecting, so I haven't done as much as I would like, but I'll try to go through all the players, listed in the order that they are mentioned in the write-ups. I've done the first four as of now, so I'll post those. Hopefully later, I'll post 4 or so more.

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) D1, didn’t want to form a “baseless suspicion, despite that is what D1 votes are based on. Up late at night, Very werewolfey behavior. Votes young Bard for Harshness against BR in an RP post. It seems like his posts are possibly in an attempt to stay under the radar, avoiding suspicions, and accusatory claims, except for his tunnel on Bard.

2. randuir Wants to get info out to help village, including placing action to protect ring, if no other action idea occurs. (village)All of his posts, including revealing himself as an emonds fielder read village to me, because he really wants to give the village info and help, and it seems like quite bit has been verified.

3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) I feel like enough has been expressed about him from others, and I am generally in agreeance with them. Pushing hard for Snipexe’s lynch doesn’t necessarily mean that you are elim, just because he’s village. I mean at least 4 other people agreed with you enough to push for the same lynch.

4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) I have been relatively inactive, and, Unfortunately, my inactivity does not help establish myself as a villager. I will be hopefully posting at least one more time this cycle, and once or twice next cycle, with substantial posts. After that, I will have completed my hardest final, and I won't have any more studying to juggle. 

As a wrap up, if today were a day cycle, and There were only these 4 people left in the game, I would vote for Steel, but seeing as this is not a day cycle, I will have to do more analysis, and see if I still agree after analysis of more people.

[Mark IV]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

Mark was the last one, and his vote bothers me a bit. He seemed to have been somewhat supportive of SnipExe lynch from the get-go, but only jumps on the bandwagon at the last minute.

I mention I wanted to vote Rathmaskal. However, if you see, BR removed her vote minutes before I posted. Therefore, in the interest of preventing vote manipulation, I cemented the vote in Snip. I'll admit, I jumped on the wagon. I had no reason to suspect Snip, and I honestly found his posts on D1 NAI at the very least. However, I voted for him because I wanted closure for the D1 vote result. His hardy status didn't us much. 

 

So, yeah. That's that. 

 

Also, I've had a mishap today and injured myself (I know, medical problems are annoying >.>) So, I haven't had much of a look at the game. Just a quick glance through the thread. I don't have enough information to vote at this point, and I'm exhausted right now.   If I can get up in time in the morning and read through the thread before rollover, I'll make a vote. (And, yes. It'll likely again be hopping into a bandwagon because I do t think I stand a chance of actually lynching anyone that's already under fire)  

 

That said, I'll likely vote for Rathmaskal or BR or Randuir. Idk why, but they've got my gut stirring. If I can't substantiate my gut feel with some evidence, I'll probably not vote at all. 

Anyways, I'm feeling very sleepy now, so I'm signing off. 

 

Edit: On a second skim of the thread, I think I'm getting Randuir confused with Karnatheon in this post. I should sleep. So, yeah. 

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Mark IV

[Rathmaskal]

Another quick thought from me...  Although I agree that getting information out to the village is good, too many people claiming what doc they are in could actually be detrimental to the village as even if they don't claim, the people in Moiraine's Circle would quickly become apparent.  8 health on the Eye isn't necessarily the MOST important thing for the village to win, but it could end up buying us an extra turn at some point.  So, there may be a situation where it makes sense to claim docs, but just make sure you consider the additional consequence if those people are exposed.

[Steeldancer]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Duck said:

So it's a bit busier today with calls at my work than I was expecting, so I haven't done as much as I would like, but I'll try to go through all the players, listed in the order that they are mentioned in the write-ups. I've done the first four as of now, so I'll post those. Hopefully later, I'll post 4 or so more.

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) D1, didn’t want to form a “baseless suspicion, despite that is what D1 votes are based on. Up late at night, Very werewolfey behavior. Votes young Bard for Harshness against BR in an RP post. It seems like his posts are possibly in an attempt to stay under the radar, avoiding suspicions, and accusatory claims, except for his tunnel on Bard.

2. randuir Wants to get info out to help village, including placing action to protect ring, if no other action idea occurs. (village)All of his posts, including revealing himself as an emonds fielder read village to me, because he really wants to give the village info and help, and it seems like quite bit has been verified.

3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) I feel like enough has been expressed about him from others, and I am generally in agreeance with them. Pushing hard for Snipexe’s lynch doesn’t necessarily mean that you are elim, just because he’s village. I mean at least 4 other people agreed with you enough to push for the same lynch.

4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) I have been relatively inactive, and, Unfortunately, my inactivity does not help establish myself as a villager. I will be hopefully posting at least one more time this cycle, and once or twice next cycle, with substantial posts. After that, I will have completed my hardest final, and I won't have any more studying to juggle. 

As a wrap up, if today were a day cycle, and There were only these 4 people left in the game, I would vote for Steel, but seeing as this is not a day cycle, I will have to do more analysis, and see if I still agree after analysis of more people.

Yeah I can come off that way, but please take into account my irl situation. I haven’t really had the time to make real suspicions or to be suspicious. I’m trying to be as active as I can be. I’m sure you can understand my conundrum given your own situation.