Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Karnatheon]

So, quick analysis. Ookla the Heretical. They die so young. It's unfortunate we lost Perrin so early. I wonder if they defended Snip and because of that couldn't defend themselves, or did something else, guess we have no way of knowing. If so, sorry on my part for recommending that course of action.

Anyway, it seems unlikely the elims knew they were Perrin, unless they were somehow revealed in the Emonds Fielder doc. They did a lot of good math on Rings, defending, and such things D1, with some follow up N1. I guess that was enough for the elims to target them then. They didn't seem to be overly suspicious of anyone, though I only did a fast reread so I may have missed something. So most likely not a retaliatory kill to stop them from persecuting someone they were correct in thinking was an elim. Since their math was most likely why they died, tjat means the elims think it is important so we should remain vigilant on that front to ensure we don't get careless with defense. 

Also, since Perrin was taken out, that means that if Mat did PM someone N1 they probably didn't PM an elim. Because I imagine they would want to kill Mat as soon as possible because more safe conversation for the village is bad for them.

There are probably more things I'm not thinking of at the moment but figured I would get this out there while it was fresh in my mind.

[Mark IV]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Also, since Perrin was taken out, that means that if Mat did PM someone N1 they probably didn't PM an elim. Because I imagine they would want to kill Mat as soon as possible because more safe conversation for the village is bad for them.

I don't see why the elims might want to kill Mat, given that Mat wouldn't know whom to trust. It's be easier to manipulate the village if the elims did have a hold of the village's sole PM maker. I don't think they'd waste that chance. 

This part of the post reads slightly elim-ey to me, given that you, karnatheon, have made relatively good observations thus far. I'd not expect your say something like that without thinking it through. 

Of course, it could be an honest mistake too. Who knows?

 

[Furamirionind]

This is the second game in a row Devotary was killed N1. I know we arent supposed to facter in other games, but this makes me *slightly* less suspicious of Bard, as it was his idea to kill Devotary last game, doing so again for the same reason (on the same night) seems counter intuitive when the most of the rest of that elim team is also in this game.

I just started rereading Devotaries posts, and she said we have a maximum of only 8 lynches? If that is the case, we should completely ignore the progression I proposed through these next few turns, and probably just try to maximise game length.  Perrins death will be a huge blow with that as we cant stop the elims from progressing anymore, unless Moiraine hits one of them with a roleblock.  It will be important for Moiraine to keep track of who she roleblocks and what happened/didnt happen that night, as we don't have our protect anymore.

I dont know if I will be able to get in any analysis before I fall asleep, I will try though. (If I do, I will edit it in)

Edited December 9, 2018 by Callsign: Jato

[Steeldancer]

I have no idea why I'm up at this heinous hour of night, but my thoughts are thus: blegh. I'm not sure how much we should read into Devotary's death though. Assuming Bard wouldn't do the same thing again is kind of a baseless strategy, as each game is their own entity. There was someone I was suspicious of from last day, but for the life of me I can't remember who it was. Probably because I'm up way past when I should be. As such, I'll come back, re analyze and vote in the morning. 

[DeTess]

I agree with Mark that it would be very unlikely for the elims to kill Mat if he PM'd one of them. Manipulating him (and by extension, the rest of his network) through the PM is far more useful. I don't necessarily think it's suspicious for Karnatheon to state this as he is a fairly new player, unless Karnatheon is the one that was contacted by Mat, or we find out that Mat's first contact was an elim (int that case, I'd be willing to lynch Karnatheon for that comment).

Is there any reason why a Fal Dara warrior should not claim to pass along whether SnipExe confirmed his presence in that doc? As far as I can tell they don't hold any powers that the village desperately needs or that the elims can abuse, but I could be wrong.

I'll have more thoughts and a vote in a bit, but I need to gather my thoughts a bit more and I'm really hoping some of the more quiet people post a bit more.

[Karnatheon]

I didn't realise me saying the elims would want to kill Mat would be so controversial. I guess I had been thinking about it more from a perspective of assuming the elims would want to kill people with special roles first. I know that if I was Mat and pm'd someone, and didn't die that night, I would be inclined to believe they were village. I realise this continues to strengthen the point against me of it sounding like I am elim and Mat pm'd me, but I wanted to explain my reasoning. Having read your guys' thoughts on the subject, I can see your point. I still think that Mat probably has more potential to cause the elims problems than to be able to be manipulated successfully, but it all depends on how skilled the elims are at manipulation. I will be rereading through everything again after work to pin down some suspicions, but currently still thinking in the same general direction as D1.

[Mark IV]

Yeah. You do have a point karnatheon. And in all honesty, it could just be a mistake. I don't disagree there. But, it could also be good manipulation. I just thought I'd point it out.

I don't know how many games anyone's played here. It's almost like my first game again.

For now, I'm willing to wait and see what happens with regards to Mat. 

Edited December 9, 2018 by Mark IV

[Karnatheon]

I agree that it should be pointed out. The only way we can figure out who the elims are is by catching mistakes like that. The question then has to be was it an honest mistake, manipulation/redirection, or an elim slipping up in their facade? Obviously I'm not going to argue to say that I'm an elim, because I'm not, and even if I was I would be trying to convince you I wasn't. I'm trying not to use it as a crutch, but figured I would point it out since others have mentioned it, yes this is my first game. Not trying to use that to influence you, just pointing it out since you brought it up.

[DeTess]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I agree that it should be pointed out. The only way we can figure out who the elims are is by catching mistakes like that. The question then has to be was it an honest mistake, manipulation/redirection, or an elim slipping up in their facade? Obviously I'm not going to argue to say that I'm an elim, because I'm not, and even if I was I would be trying to convince you I wasn't. I'm trying not to use it as a crutch, but figured I would point it out since others have mentioned it, yes this is my first game. Not trying to use that to influence you, just pointing it out since you brought it up.

Then are you currently being a new player worried about all the attention they're getting, or an elim about to crack under the suspicion?  

Don't worry to much, if either me or Mark thought the one comment would be enough to lynch you for, we'd already have been voting on you. A response like this one will only proceed to dig you in deeper, which actually makes me suspect that you're either village, or have a very inactive elim team, as they could have told you this. It could be different in other people's experience, but elim teams tend to be rather helpful to new players in their team with providing them with some dos and don'ts.

Edited December 9, 2018 by randuir

[Karnatheon]

Alright, well thanks for the tip. I guess I won't defend myself from now on then?

[DeTess]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Alright, well thanks for the tip. I guess I won't defend myself from now on then?

You should defend yourself when there's something to defend against. In this case you'd said everything that needed to be said in your first post in response to mark. The post after that that I quoted felt slightly desperate and all-over-the-place to me, which is why I pointed it out (it could be summarized as "I can see why an elim might say what I did, but I'm totally not an elim guys! Also, this is my first game, but that shouldn't influence you but I'm mentioning it anyway."). Personally, I've always found that the best defense is a good offense, irrespective of my alignment. Refute the parts that you can refute in suspicions against you, and then start looking for a better lynch target.

[Karnatheon]

So I will be doing a more in depth analysis later, but just to get some discussion going, I'm going to be voting for  Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn/Ark1002. Unfortunately I don't see the button to change text color on mobile, so it technically won't count as a vote right now but at least gets my thoughts out there. 

As I stated on D1, I know Ark to be a very active member on the Shard. He has been at least somewhat active on other parts of the forum since the game has started. He has posted only two or three times in thread, with almost no discussion or contribution in those posts. I suspect he is probably more active than we know of, but that he is an elim and is active in their doc specifically. He may also be active in other docs but that seems less relevant. This is more of a gut feeling, with little to no evidence, since he has posted almost nothing like I said. With 12 hours left this turn(I believe), people should have plenty of time to debate this and refute it. As opposed to D1 where I made these points in the last hour of the turn.

So again, I will be making this an official vote once I get desktop access in like 7 hours and can change text to red.

[Mark IV]

@Ookla the Ring mobile formatting is like this:

[ color=enter color here] Vote [ /color]

Without the initial space in the brackets. And note specifically the American spelling of color (colour doesn't work).

 

[Snipexe]

Alrighty folks, sorry I didn’t post again yesterday. I ended up spending way too long on an assignment. Anyway, here’s my vote for today:

Ark1002

Justification: I agree with Karn in that he has only made essentially made posts that provide no real content.

There’s also the fact that he completely ignored his poke vote. It’s almost as if he knows he’s not in danger from the lynch

 

Edited December 9, 2018 by Ookla the Skeptical
Accidentally posted before finished

[DeTess]

Allright, let's see if I can quickly go through everyone's posts before this day is done. Edit: nope, didn't manage to do this quickly.

Steeldancer (Big Shrug)

Three posts, all of which where some variation on 'I can't really contribute yet'. I really hope tos ee more from him soon.

Karnatheon (slight village)

I'm still leaning village on Karatheon. A lot of his posts suggest 'observant new player' to me. He's made some good points and is generally involved in analysis, though he's focused mostly on the rules so far. That's fine in a game like this, but I expect him to start looking more at people soon. I've mentioned one of his first posts before as looking really village, and some of his posts to day feel similar to me. In particular I'd have expected his responses today to have been more calm and emasured if he actually ahd the safety net of an active elim team to back him up

Cadmium Compounder (Bigger Shrug)

Same general story as steeldancer, with one less post.

xinoehp512 (biggest shrug)

Xinoeph hasn't even really posted a 'sorry, I can't be active yet', which bothers me a bit. Not in an elimy way, exactly, but it'd be nice to know when we can expect to ehar more from him.

Amanuensis (Shrug that's even bigger than the one for Xinoeph)

Normally at this point in a game Amanuensis will have about 4000 words of analysis and RP (each, not combined  ) posted. Still, that's not particularly alignment indicative.

Droughtbringer (Come on guys, be more active!)

Drought, have you managed to read the rules yet? Anything of interest in there that you can share with us?

Rathmaskal (yes, more active than that!)

Hasn't really been any more active than any of the other people I've mentioned so far except Karnatheon. He did get a poke vote ion, but that's not a particularly high-effort action. If anything, it makes me slightly suspicious of him, as it could be something that's done to appear active and have an easy scapegoat to lynch. I really hope to see more from him soon though.

Young Bard (slightly village)

Only two posts, but one of it contains some actual game thoughts, which is nice. Going after BR like that suggests he's doing a close reading of the game, rather than going after low-hanging fruit, which makes me lean slightly village on him

Mark IV (neutral)

First, to answer his question about BR; It's been a while since I played with her as well, but iirc she's always quite vocal, irrespective of her current understanding of the rules.

Like Young Bard, Mark appears to be hunting for elims. However, his comments tot hat regard feel more like picking low-hanging fruit. He only went after BR after young bard pointed her out, and his suspicion of Karnatheon lacked teeth. He didn't really push further to try and figure out whether his suspicions had merit after the initial exchange. I'm not actively suspicious of Mark, but I'm not seeing him as being particularly village-y either right now).

Snipexe (slight elim)

My position on Snipexe remains unchanged, and I hope to hear more from either him or another warrior confirming his presence in the doc soon (and his current vote is something something pot and kettle).

Furamirionind (Village)

Furami's been doing a lot of strategizing and calculating based on the various rings and damage progression, which first and foremost speaks for effort made and time invested. This doesn't confirm him as village (as the things he's been looking into would be of some value to the elims as well), but it does suggest a high level of engagement with the game. He's also not limited himself to just talking about the rules, which could be used to pretend to be active while not really trying to find the elims, but he's been lookign at the various players as well. village read for now

Hemalurgic Headshot

HH only checked in, no real posts yet.

Ark1002

His comment about the Xinoeph vote suggests that he's at least following along, but that's about it. In some ways, this worries me more than thsoe that seem to be not following along, as Ark's apparently not (mostly) inactive.

STINK

Computer broke, isn't too active because of that. Nothing else to be said except that I hope that his computer will be fixed soon.

MetaTerminal (neutral)

I don't have too much to say about metaterminal either, but for a change that isn't because his posts don't have any real content. His vote on bard did at least have some explanation behind it, though it was a fairly easy shot, and encouraging others to vote is always a good thing, though not necessarily alignment indicative.

BrightnessRadiant (Neutral)

I actually like seeing BR's progression of thought from her second to her third post on my vote on SnipExe. It makes sense and seems logical to me why her stance shifted. I also don't see why elim!BR would have felt a particular need to go fro SnipExe over Bard (unless they're team-mates). Overall though there's a lof of psots by her wiht very little actual content, which bother me a bit. I'm keeping her at neutral so far and will be keeping an eye on her.

Mr Doctor (neutral)

 Good activity as usual from our Not-Dragon-Reborn Doctor. Believes that there are less more Elims than what Furami and I have theorised, which only stands out to me because in my (very few) Elim games I like to make the Village underestimate the number of Elims. So far he’s been helpful, but he’s like that even when he’s evil. For now I’ll give randuir Doctor a free pass because he’s hard to read and always helpful.

(all kidding aside, I've seen mr Doctor at work in his first game in which he and I where both elims. He's at least as sneaky as he'd have you believe I am)

So overall conclusion: A lot of people need to do a lot more posting, and in particular I'd like to see some analysis from SnipExe, as otherwise chances are that's where my vote will land again.

Edited December 9, 2018 by randuir

[Mark IV]

Just reread D1 and N1. I may not be on before Rollover again. 

I have a strong gut feel about 2 people, but not much evidence. I'll not be voting for now, for aforementioned lack of a case. However, if I do happen to come online before rollover, I may drop my vote to solidify the lynch at the very least. 

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Mark IV (neutral)

First, to answer his question about BR; It's been a while since I played with her as well, but iirc she's always quite vocal, irrespective of her current understanding of the rules.

Like Young Bard, Mark appears to be hunting for elims. However, his comments tot hat regard feel more like picking low-hanging fruit. He only went after BR after young bard pointed her out, and his suspicion of Karnatheon lacked teeth. He didn't really push further to try and figure out whether his suspicions had merit after the initial exchange. I'm not actively suspicious of Mark, but I'm not seeing him as being particularly village-y either right now).

I'll keep that in mind about BR. 

I'll admit, I'd never have asked BR the question if Bard had never made his post. However, the reason I asked her was because I felt her answer was a little off. You could say I picked low hanging fruit. IMO though, I made a post about something I found odd. That it was in response to Bard's question was inconsequential to my actions. 

I'm not saying I necessarily suspect Karnatheon of being an elim. In fact, I'm leaning village on him. However, I found the slip interesting and pointed it out. I'd rather wait to see how it pans out rather than put pressure on him. Catch him off-guard if you will. Putting pressure on him will instead raise his defense and he may not make a similar slip again. 
The point's sort of moot now though, given that it's received so much attention now. 
Honestly, at this point, I don't think he'd slip up under pressure. So, yeah. I thought I'd let the matter be. 

This post's been a sort of ramble. I apologise if there's any repetition here or there. It's a little late here. 

So, yeah. Hopefully I'll be on before roll over. 

Edited December 9, 2018 by Mark IV

[Furamirionind]

I am not going to do a full analysis on everyone this time as I have a lot to do today.  But I will post my general thoughts.

I felt suspicious (gut read) of BR before Bard's post, and even more afterwards due to her seemingly just brushing off Bard's post about her, like it didn't matter. But I looked back in the (only) other game I could find her in, and she did the same thing there as well when she was village, so I suppose I have a neutral stance on her right now.

I understand the view on lynching Ark, as I tried to use that same reasoning to lynch him last game.  However, this is how he usually plays. He didn't get truly active last game until I started pushing *hard* for his lynch.

I have been told Xino has a similar playstyle.  I would normally be all for lynching these two players, as I think it is really frustrating to play with, but with so few lynches I don't know if we want to waste them on these people.

Karn/Ookla the Ring - i am getting a slight village read on them, however, they remind me of myself a bit from last game... (with some more time)

For now, I am going to keep pressing my vote from last cycle. I may change it after analyzing, but until he says more, my initial suspicion stands.

DroughtBringer

@Droughtbringer

(I will probably work out another sequence of how I think we should progress through the rings again today [unless someone beats me to it], but in the mean time, err on the side of keeping the ring alive.  This ring should be decently forgiving due the the amount of players we have.)

Edit: I forgot to mention, I was redirected last night. The elims already know this, so sharing this publically shouldn't hurt. I was redirected to Snipexe.  As we don't have any killing or detective roles right now, they would have no issue with targeting an elim... But I don't know what to think about this. It probably doesnt mean anything right now... Hopefully sharing this publically was not a huge mistake...

Edit: edit:

Help us, oh @Ookla the Libre, you are our only hope!

Edited December 9, 2018 by Callsign: Jato
Added lots of edit stuff at the bottom

[Snipexe]

3 hours ago, randuir said:

I'd like to see some analysis from SnipExe,

Alright. I’m really bad at this, but we’ll see how this goes.

Sidenote: in regards to the 20% chance of the failure for votes. We need to have firm secure lynches. So if you see a lynch that’s close, and you even slightly agree with one side, please vote. Just vote.

Analysis: Devotary had 7 posts in this game:

1. 

 

Quote

We should be able to defend the 1st ring Day 1, Night 1, and Day 2. I don't anticipate being able to protect the ring Night 2, where the Blight does 11 damage, two sabotage actions could potentially happen, and several village roles will be doing other actions. We should be able to prevent the third ring from falling that night, and the following day the Blight damage drops to X+1=6, which is blockable. The 9 damage Night 3 will likely go through partially, but if we mount a firm defense that night and Day 4 where the Blight does 8 damage, we should be able to preserve the 4th ring until Night 4, the first time its effect is useful since creatures cannot be summoned until Night 3 and creature summons come after creature kills. If we can prevent the 5th ring from falling that night, we're in position to use the benefit of the 5th ring where defense is doubled during the day in exchange for vote negation. A successful defense there means the 5th ring should last until Night 5, which means we can defend the 6th ring Day 6 where votes cannot be negated. We can't stop the Blight at this point, so it will do 12 damage Day 6, then 13 damage Night 6 to likely destroy the 7th ring, and from there 14,15,16 damage. At that rate, the Blight will destroy the eye by the end of Night 8 at the latest, but by then the game should have already ended.  

   On 12/7/2018 at 5:11 AM,  Mr Doctorsaid: 

Also, [Ookla the Heretical], why are you wearing my face ? My profile pic coloured purple, yes, but my profile pic nonetheless. It made me pause and chuckle when I saw it for the first time.

You changed your Discord name to Ookla of Heretics after I had already claimed the name Ookla the Heretical, so I decided to steal your profile picture. I can no longer actually find my original profile picture, but I'll stop using your face on December 19th regardless of whether I find my old one.

Devotary of Spontaneity

 

This post is primarily focused on how the barrier distribution will work out. The most important thing they talk about (in my opinion) is that this game will last till night 8 at the latest. In order to win, in the next 7 (counting today) we need to lynch or kill 5 elims (6 counting Aginor’s Hardy). So as far as I can tell, we have 1 more mislynch, assuming Rand is not able to kill any Forsaken when he can channel. 

I can’t think of any reason why Devotary would be killed for this post or why it would raise the elim’s ire

2.

Quote

With eight players roleless villagers except for any docs they might be in, a presumed three elims who can be part of docs, and four confirmed members of Moraine's circle, the number of roleless should be approximately equal to the number of unique villagers present in group docs if the number of members in Moraine's Circle is representative of the number of players in the other two anonymous docs. @Ookla the White-Cloaked, @Ookla the Rogue, if Padan Fain or an Agent are part of the Fal Dara Warriors doc, could they have an extra life?

Fal Dara Keep. Darktouched. Blightcursed. And the last place Rhodin had seen his first-brother alive. His clan had acted as though Fenduin was fulfilling his toh by choosing to combat the Blight. At twelve years old Rhodin hadn't known any better. No male Aiel channeler had ever returned from the Blight in thousands of years, but Rhodin was sure that his eldest first-brother could defeat the Dark One.  Together, Rhodin and his mother watched an Aes Sedai escort Fenduin into the midst of the Blight. A day later, she returned, but Fenduin never did.

Devotary of Spontaneity

 

 

 

Speculation on how the anonymous docs work, which I personally agree with. The Warrior doc has 5 people in it, which to me at least seems to imply that there is 6 in emond’s fielder’s doc, so the the distribution of people in docs vs. those not in them as 3:1. I’m assuming that the elim distribution is 2 in Emond’s, 2 in warrior, 1 in Morraine’s circle. This distribution also makes in regards to the power of the docs, with the more powerful docs having more elims.

3. 

 

Quote

Does this mean the two Forsaken also have the Concealment passive, allowing them to be in the anonymous docs? That would make it almost certain that there's at least one elim in each doc, and reduce the necessity to have unique villagers in the anonymous docs.

   On 12/7/2018 at 3:55 PM,  Ookla the Cited said: 

I’ve got a slight elim read on Bard as their only post isn’t even 20 words long and doesn’t provide much in the way of actual statement or analysis, and seems to be just RP.

Bard did claim before the game started that he planned to make the entirety of all his posts in character. While short, his post is in keeping with this prior claim.

We have an exciting two votes so far with less than two hours left in the cycle. Aginor can negate votes, which would put us down to one vote and possibly none if the other voter had their vote negated by defense or sabotage. It may be worthwhile for Moiraine to do what Aes Sedai do best, and murder one of our number with her vote manipulation power. At this point, everyone has either posted or been mentioned, and it's too late in the cycle for a poke vote. It's likely that I won't vote this cycle and let Moiraine make a decision unless something comes up.

Devotary of Spontaneity

 

 

 

The first half is more speculation on the spec docs. I disagree with statement they made here, that the elim distribution reduces the necessity for the roled villagers to be in the docs. I personally believe it emphasizes the need for an even distribution of roled villagers in the docs, so the elims can be balanced.

The second half is calling for Morraine for make the kill. This situation of course rapidly changed, so that part is no longer relavent.

4. 

 

Quote

Your work and Fura's had indicated that there were most likely eight villagers with no roles other than potentially being in docs. We know there are four members of Moiraine's circle, so if the number of members of the other two docs are roughly the same(four and four), the presence of roleless would require an equivalent number of unique villagers to be part of the anonymous docs. Knowing that the entire elim team has a possibility to be in an anonymous doc makes it less likely that a given unique villager will be part of a doc, while increasing the likely number of roleless villagers.

As I said previously I agree with their distribution of the docs. Not much else to say, as this is just a more in-depth version of their 2nd post.

5. 

Quote

It is a best case scenario; the Blight is more likely to overcome the Eye by Night 7 or Day 8 than Night 8. If we go for a full scale defense I believe the progression I outlined earlier is achievable. It's essential for Rand to use his Strike action during the day when there are Creepers about, the Green Man should be protecting Rand at night to make sure he doesn't die, and Moiraine's abilities can be useful, but starting Night 2 when the Blight will likely begin to do damage, most other villagers will be best off submitting a defense action.

Another prediction about the end game, as well as the obvious advice for all villagers to defend as long as possible.

6. 

Quote

Probably the fastest solution here is just to ask  @Ookla the Skeptical how he survived. He should be able to prove that he's part of the Fal Dara Warriors should that be the case, which would prove nothing about his alignment. If he is not part of the Fal Dara Warriors, either he is Rand or Rand will kill him when we reach the Eye. Killing a potential Aginor!Snipexe before any Creature summons would likely require Rand to claim. That would save a few lives, obligate the Green Man and/or Perrin to protect a proven Rand for the rest of the game, and most costly, waste a lynch. With a maximum of eight lynches and a minimum five elim lives, we have very few lynches to spare. Since we are utterly helpless to act on any suspicions at night, any claiming should wait until the beginning of Day 2.

Devotary of Spontaneity

I have since claimed Fal Dara, but the points she presents about not lynching me still apply. I think an easy way to tell is to keep me alive till we reach the eye (it’s not likely the elims will kill me anyway) and then if Rand has no other suspects have him kill me. They also bring up the fact that we have very few lynches and we should be carefully. This game has a hard limit on the number of turns we have, and mislynching someone will cause much more risk then a normal game. There’s not much more I can say in this section that wouldn’t just be repeating myself.

7. 

 

Quote

If the Blight fails to pierce a layer of defense, its attack increases by 3, e.g. 2-5-8-11. To prevent Ring 4 from falling, we'd need 5+ #sabotage defense actions.

A simple explanation of the Blight attacks+Ring 4 info. Not much to analyze here.

Conclusion: I started this looking for a specific reason as to why the elims made the decision to kill Devotary. N1 kills are interesting, because they usually kills that are based entirely on who has contributed the most, or a prediction of the will contribute the most. The issue is that this game has been pretty active so far, and many people have contributed. Devotary also didn’t have any outright suspicions that could get them killed. The only reason that I can think of for the elims killing them is just a choice of choosing an  active player, and they happened to get lucky.

I apologize if this is really bad, or unclear, but I figured I’d give writing something like this a try.

Edit: @Ookla the White-Cloaked Does redirecting a defense action do anything?

Edited December 9, 2018 by Ookla the Skeptical

[DeTess]

46 minutes ago, Callsign: Jato said:

Edit: I forgot to mention, I was redirected last night. The elims already know this, so sharing this publically shouldn't hurt. I was redirected to Snipexe.  As we don't have any killing or detective roles right now, they would have no issue with targeting an elim... But I don't know what to think about this. It probably doesnt mean anything right now... Hopefully sharing this publically was not a huge mistake...

It's not a gigantic mistake, but it's also kinda NAI right now. Maybe you got redirected. Maybe the elims didn't submit a redirect action so you, as elim!Furami, could safely claim to be redirected.  Assuming you're speaking the truth, I don't think there's much point to redirecting you to SnipExe, apart from trying to somehow make you wonder about why they picked him in the first place. Unless the Elims forgot to ask whether you'd be told to who you got redirected, and redirected you to one of their own so they use the redirect as a scan for Moraine.

Hmmm, this requires some more thinking about, and makes me want to resolve SnipExe's slot even more.

This'll be my last post for the day, as I need to get some early rest. I'm debating between voting for SnipExe once again and throwing a vote at Rathmaskal, because I know that rathmaskal is capable of contributing more than he has so far and his contributions so far are of the type that would make him appear active and contributing at a quick glance.

I'm going to go with Rathmaskal this time around, as hopefully it'll cause him to contribute more so I can get a proper read on him, but unless I see some kind of confirmation that SnipExe is indeed a warrior, or someone gives me a good reason why it would be bad for a second warrior to reveal themselves to provide this confirmation, I'll probably vote on him sometime soon again.

Edit: SnipExe ninjas me. Snipexe, you say there's 5 warriors and you suspect 6 fielders, but also that you agree with Devotary's guess of 4 in each doc. Which of the two is it?  In all seriousness though, seeing people post stuff like this is helpful. If nothing else it gives me insight into how they're approaching the game, which helps with figuring out what their alignment is. I've got an alternate theory of why Devotary got killed, but unfortunately that will have to wait till the night cycle.

Edited December 9, 2018 by randuir

[Furamirionind]

17 minutes ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Edit: @Ookla the White-Cloaked Does redirecting a defense action do anything?

Since Fifth isn't on right now, the answer is yes. I was told by Fifth that All actions can be redirected. in our PM.

Edited December 9, 2018 by Callsign: Jato

[Snipexe]

Just now, Callsign: Jato said:

Since Fifth isn't on right now, the answer is yes. I was told by Fifth that All actions can be redirected.

Alright, thanks!

[Fifth Scholar]

54 minutes ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Edit: @Ookla the White-Cloaked Does redirecting a defense action do anything?

It can be redirected. Whether or not it will do anything, PAFO. 

And thank you for the reminder, Fura—I need to post a fresh batch of rules clarifications, and should hopefully have it up with the new Night cycle in 6 hours’ time. That’s also the amount of time you all have to get your orders in. 

[MetaTerminal]

Is the holiday season usually this busy for most? I know it’ll get busy for me in the future, so I will do my best to stay active on here (especially if we see a similar level of activity as in LG50), but consider yourself forewarned that I may miss a cycle or two. Sorry in advance.

1 hour ago, Callsign: Jato said:

I was redirected last night.

This is NAI, especially since I can see you using this as a bluff as an elim: your style of play is very helpful (or “helpful”) regardless of your faction. We can’t really draw any conclusions from this. That being said, I would encourage you to continue to share information that you can without causing damage. Mafia is a game of information and information like this that people might not think to share is the kind of stuff we need.

I agree with Snip’s conclusions of Devotary being a kill for activity - PMs are closed, so there couldn’t have been any private transfer of information that triggered the kill.

37 minutes ago, randuir said:

unless I see some kind of confirmation that SnipExe is indeed a warrior, or someone gives me a good reason why it would be bad for a second warrior to reveal themselves to provide this confirmation, I'll probably vote on him sometime soon again.

I’m not sure what to think about this - the only reason I could think of for a village warrior not to claim and vouch is they didn’t want to give away that they were Hardy, and thus deter an elim kill. That’s not a good reason not to vouch, and I would encourage someone to do so.

However, even if someone did cover Snip’s claim, FalDara is an NAI role. If he isn’t FalDara, that’s also NAI - Rand would have good cause to lie about his role. Lynching all liars isn’t necessarily a good idea in this instance, and it’s just as likely that Rand would have gotten pegged in the first round as Aginor.

The redirect indicates to me that either both Fura and Snip are village, or one of them is elim (Snip with the self-redirect to search for roles, and Fura to get Snip killed out of suspicion). I’d find it unlikely that they’re both elim, as a bus this early in the game would do much more harm than good and doesn’t seem like something I’d expect Fura to do. I therefore wouldn’t be opposed to flipping Snip to learn more about Fura.

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Cited said:

I agree with Snip’s conclusions of Devotary being a kill for activity - PMs are closed, so there couldn’t have been any private transfer of information that triggered the kill

PMs are closed, but Devotary was in the Emond’s Fielder doc.  Only people in that doc can therefore truly know whether or not Devotary said something to torn the elims on her. Activity could be part of the reason Devotary was killed, however, Randuir, Mr Doctor, Karn, BR, and myself have also all been active.  I think it unlikely they just roled a d20 and picked someone on that roll.

I think it may be partly because she had yet to do analysis on players, and was pretty much focusing on rules.  Mr Doctor, BR, and myself all did player analysis. Karn is new, so it would be a bit rude to kill them N1 I think.  That leaves Randuir and Devotary.  Both good players, but I haven't played with Randuir before, so idk why someone may or may not decide to kill them over someone else.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Cited said:

However, even if someone did cover Snip’s claim, FalDara is an NAI role. If he isn’t FalDara, that’s also NAI - Rand would have good cause to lie about his role. Lynching all liars isn’t necessarily a good idea in this instance, and it’s just as likely that Rand would have gotten pegged in the first round as Aginor.

I agree with this.  I don't like the idea of lynching Snipexe because he is hardy. At BEST, we have ~50% of getting an elim. At worst, ~ 16.66% of getting an elim.  I do not like that range. Rand would claim warrior, elim would claim warrior, and warrior would claim warrior.  Therefore, I think we shouldn't lynch him as we really don't have enough info.

Just brainstorming out loud though, would it be OK for Rand to claim? Rand should be protected each night by the green man.  So should be safe from the elim kills.  Moiraine and Lan already know who each other are, so you would have a village circle of 3 who knows they can trust the other 2 (plus Mat would connect with Rand, and extend this group to 4).  The big downside I see, is if the green man dies, or is inactive, or is roleblocked, or redirected, then we basically lost Rand.  This would probably be 100% doable in the late game, when we know if the green man will survive, but not now.

Edit: I wasn't trying to get Snipexe killed with my post, just share info. I am still going after Drought

Edit: Actually, at best we should have a 66.666666% chance of flipping an elim purely because they are hardy. (assuming Rand is the only village Hardy and 2 elim ones), however I think 50% is still the highest reasonable percentage. (either no warrior hardys, or 2 warrior hardys, 1 elim 1 village)

Edited December 9, 2018 by Callsign: Jato

[Furamirionind]

Sorry for double posting! (not particularly, as I think this next post is important enough... but I don't want the mods upset with me, so I will apologize anyway : )  )

Unfortunately, Devotary's math was correct.  We will have a maximum of 8 lynches. Here is the new progression I think we should take:
2 - 5 - 8 || 5 - 8 || || 7 - 10 -13 || || 10 || 11 - 14 || 13 - 14 - 15 - 16

If you understood that, congratulations. I have been doing all my work in the google search engine, so that is how I have been formatting it. To rephrase:

D2 - (today) Breach Ring 1, Blight attacking for 8 (This is a bit of a gamble as I don't know role distribution. But I think all the roleless AND Moiraine's circle should Defend and no one else.)

N2 - Hold Ring 2, Blight attacking for 5

D3 - Breach Ring 2, Blight Attacking for 8.  Let it breach ring 3 as well.

N3  - Hold Ring 4, Blight attacking for 7 (gives time for Rand to take care of extra creeper before it is dangerous)

D4 - Hold Ring 4, Blight attacking for 10 (this one will be hard)

N4 -  Breach Ring 4, Blight attacking for 13. Let it breach ring 5 as well.

D5 -  Breach Ring 6, Blight attacking for 10. (this assumes Rand can prioritize more dangerous creepers)

N5 - We want to just be full out protecting from her on out.  Hopefully we will be able to hold this ring a turn. But it is all circumstantial.

There are several turns in here that the elims could mess up for us.  The one I am most concerned about is this turn, as the health is so low. However, I have back up progressions in case they do mess it up, that should allow for us to get back on the right track.  If this doesn't work today, then I will post one of those.