Long Game 31: A World Without Vin

[DeTess she/her]

 

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Assuming you'll survive the night, eh? 

Yeah. Luckily, you and joe have been doing a lot of good and public planning and analyzing(take note of that, people with defending roles), so I reckon my chances of survival are not too bad .

Edit: Me stating that probably jinxed it. I'll see if I can't get some of my thoughts out before turnover.

Edited March 13, 2017 by randuir

[Droughtbringer]

I am here! Haven't had much time to post recently, life's been fairly hectic recently but here goes some stuff:


@Amanuensis What do you mean to mess with the stats? I see know actual reason to go for that if I am evil, and...well don't have much else to say about that cause I am still kinda confused about that.

@randuir I have a gut read on you that is telling me that you are an Eliminator, don't really have much evidence for it, plus you are specifically saying that your chances of survival aren't that bad which might make it so that you have a better reason to survive for a while...don't know though.

Me: I have been lurking...kinda. I kept a tab open on my laptop with the thread open on it and it probably said that I was online a lot. I am planning to go back through and go through my reads of more people, but don't have enough time for that right now. Any questions that anyone wants me to address? About the Contribution Crusade: My point was that we should not let innactives get in the way of a good solid lynch. If we are attempting to lynch someone, and someone else brings up the CC then we should not suddenly stop and lynch the innactive, and we should probably start doubting the person who brought that up. I suggest that at the beginning of a day turn we decide on an inactive to lynch and put say...3 votes on them. Then we discuss evidence as if they are not being voted on, and if we decide that someone else might be guilty then we move our votes to them, hopefully having at least 2 of the 3 votes being able to be moved, along with anyone else voting for the suspicious person as to get our lynch off on them. This would allow us to have a plan to lynch innactives, but can easily be moved to someone who is actually suspicious.


 

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

29 minutes ago, DroughtBringer said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@Amanuensis What do you mean to mess with the stats? I see know actual reason to go for that if I am evil, and...well don't have much else to say about that cause I am still kinda confused about that.

There's statistics floating around that on forum mafia, eliminators tend to be the somewhere between the 3rd and 6th vote on a player during a bandwagon. It's been mentioned by a few players in the past, and as a result, a lot of players are wary of fitting that criteria when they're evil, so they'll either avoid bandwagons outright, or get involved later on (assuming they weren't the ones to start it off, which is rare, but also a possibility). So, when I said that I would consider messing with the statistics, that's what I meant. I'd find a way to twist that knowledge to my advantage, to prepare an argument against an unknowing villager or as a way to corroborate my own innocence. As you've proven by asking this question, you don't know about those statistics and therefore wouldn't have had a plan like that in mind when you voted there at the end. Hence why I think it was a spontaneous decision on your part, which makes me think you're more likely innocent than not: players tend to be more careful when they're evil.

Also, thank you for responding. I hope to see more thoughts from you regarding other players in a similar vein to your statement on Rand. I too thought it was odd that he said that part about surviving, which is why I pointed it out. Earlier this turn I looked at the players and decided the four most likely candidates for the Skaa attack tonight, which included myself, Rand, and three others. When determining the percent, I then subtracted one as there's a decent chance one of those four is an eliminator, if not more, hence the aforementioned 25% chance I die tonight. It's probably higher now that I made that megapost, but El wouldn't answer when I asked what where the odds of me surviving long enough to use my power.

For those wondering, I received a big, old PAFO card to that.

As for your plan. I need to consider it more, but at first glance, it doesn't seem like a bad idea. The only tough part would be getting enough players on board. I've tried to organize villages in the past to execute similar things, like for example, having everyone not participating in the lynch to vote on random players with no votes so we can get an accurate guess to how many Soothers are in the games. But every time I've tried it's never worked out, so now I'm trying to just ask specific players question and mention the quiet ones as often as possible. That said, I would be willing to experiment tomorrow, starting with @Bartimaeus, since he's been the least active of all players so far.

Edited March 13, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

(Quotes aren't working for me)

Quote

Aman:

 If that trend continues in this game, I would cite that as one of her eliminator tells. Unfortunately just by stating this publicly, she's now aware of it and could turn it on it's head, which is why I usually prefer to keep that information to myself until I can build a solid enough case, but considering that I have no way to protect myself this game, I doubt I'll be able to gather enough evidence. 

Now, if do participate in the main lynches, does that mean I admit to being evil and am trying to avoid your suspicion? If I don't, your suspicions regarding me will increase. Trapped in a paradox, aren't I? :-P

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

 

Now, if do participate in the main lynches, does that mean I admit to being evil and am trying to avoid your suspicion? If I don't, your suspicions regarding me will increase. Trapped in a paradox, aren't I? :-P

Yeahhh, haha. We entered IKYK territory the second I posted it, which I'm okay with. I won't let it affect my judgement if you too much, so no need to worry. Really, I just wanted to see how you would react to that statement, and see what path you'd take from here. Regardless, I concluded my paragraph that the groupthink saying you're suspicious this early makes my gut think you're innocent, although there were a couple things that convinced me that you require further scrutiny.

For now, @Ecthelion III and @A Joe in the Bush are my larger concerns, anyway.

[Arinian]

3 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Arinian: Didn't know who to vote on, suggested that CC and poke votes don't seem to indicate alignment (probably accurate). Suspicious of Stick for...not seeming suspicious? Some RP.  Leaning slightly toward Elim.

I will answer why I'm not suspicious of Stick.

Will give you example:

Remember what happened with Rae in AG3 and LG30. She was very suspicious but in both she was villager. And in both games I stated that I not suspicious of Rae because of that, yeah not suspicious because she is suspicious.

Same thing with Stick it's usual behavior for Village!Stick when she suspicious. 

I hope that's understandable answer.

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Already gave my opinion of HH, so that brings me to Arinian. I'd be lying if I didn't say that it was hard for me to get a solid read on him, given that english isn't his first language. But I worked pretty closely with him in QF21, and he doesn't seem too much different than he did then. For now, my gut is telling me village, but really I need more posts from him before I can take a firm stance one way or another. I will note publicly that he was a villager in LG30 and considerably more involved in the discussion, but since this game just began, I can't figure out if he's just holding back or building up.

Damnation what a wall of text you wrote. My bad english mess ups Aman's read on me... hmm... don't sure if it's good or bad thing 

So to answers. You can look back on other games that I played and I was not more active then in this one(I just like to keep thoughts in my head, so yeah I know that's not very good thing to do). LG30 was exception, I wanted to change my playstyle on more active but that's not repaid(in LG30) so I think I just got frustrated by that. And that's answer to level of my activity in this game.

Also I don't have much suspicions or solid evidence to provide. Can say on whom I get bad gut read or suspecting for weird unsubstuntial reasons.

Randuir. Honestly he looks for me same as in LG30 where he was elim. Also there was something but I should go reread day turn to say what.

Also I get bad feeling(I even can't call that gut read) about Mage and Silverblade but that's all.

So probably that's also why I silent *shrug*.

RP:

Spoiler

Juan for couple moments silently sat fiddling with his mustache. Alrin looked in window, sun almost disappeared over horizon so he stood up and said.

“Sorry but I should go”. He took his sword that unseen laid on the other chair near him and disappeared in doorframe.

Ashfall just ended but evening air was fresh and cold, soon mist will appear. He strolled leading his way to manor of House Tekiel. But memories like annoying flies buzzed in his head.

12 years ago

The day when Steel Inquisition found him. Of course it was just question of time till inquisition will find him. He stayed in dark dirty room and calmly looked on them… creatures from nightmares, looked on spikes in their eyes. Other skaa in room tried to run, to hide, some of them just quietly wept.  But Alrin stayed and looked on them without fear, he waited for death… death for him looked like much better way than starve every day live in dirt… better than live in fear, fear that he lost today.

They left him alive.

One of Inquisitors (there was 2 of them) said pointing hand at Alrin. “You coming with us” his voice sounded like gnash of metal. And he went with them, without questions, without fear. He not tried to run or hide, all time he thought that he will prefer death then surrender but his mind was cold, his heart was ice he chose life, and his only intent was to survive as long as he could.

So he stepped in night full of mists with two Inquisitors, waiting for his fate.

They put chains on his hands and now he walked through dark night feeling like blind in mists. Inquisitors brought Alrin in abandoned building, but it only looked abandoned, in fact there were many residents… residents in cages. They threw him in one of these cages. This place was even dirtier then skaa dwelling and smell there was much worse.

 

[Magestar he/him]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Ah, right. I saw that, but it didn't register, since all the posts said (18 hours ago). I'm assuming those two ninja's were Len and Phatt's votes, then. So when you switched votes, it would have been 5 on Phatt to 3 on Len. That's reasonable if you consider vote manipulations, which you didn't mention, so that kinda makes me more suspicious of you. But I'll trust my instincts on you for now.

Oh great.  Well, despite my best efforts, I can't seem to avoid suspicion.  I suppose I'll just keep giving my opinions and hope for the best.  

1 hour ago, randuir said:

*Checks badge book*. I think I need one more endorsement for the "Sneaky Bastard Badge". Anyone?

I'll take this one.  I fully endorse your sneaky bastard-ness.  

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Magestar said:

 

Oh great.  Well, despite my best efforts, I can't seem to avoid suspicion.  I suppose I'll just keep giving my opinions and hope for the best.

Glad to see you're not letting a little suspicion discourage you . Even the players I don't say I'm suspicious of, or those who I decide to trust, I still have doubts about them until I see alignment confirmation from the GMs. For now, you're snugged comfortably in the middle of the yellow zone, so really you have nothing to fear. Not yet, at least. 

Edited March 13, 2017 by Amanuensis

[DeTess she/her]

I'll get to the rest of the players if I'm still alive next cycle, but this is what I've gathered uptill now.

Hemalurgic_Headshot: HH has posted a bit of RP and one discussion post in cycle 1. In the discussion post he talks about reasons to vote for Elenion or Phattemer. He states that he gets good reads on those voting for Len, and then votes for Phatt because he's "susceptible to bandwagons". Once someone calls him out on this, he retracts his vote and states that he is not surprised people suspect him over a bandwagon.

Both his reasoning for voting on Phatt and his complaint about people suspecting him over joining a bandwagon seem odd to me, so I lean slightly elim on him. His explanation post this night does seem genuine, but it could also just be elim damage control.

Straw: Straw had 1 post in the day, and none yet during this night.

His feelings on the CC are not particularly alignment indicative, so I've got him as neutral for now

Joe: Joe made 2 big posts reacting to some of the earlier discussion and scoring suggestions based on whether it appeared village or elim. He's also revealed that he is a Kandra (I can confirm that, btw. I'm one of the people he has contacted).

The only negative comment I have on his big posts is that they are somewhat reactionary (dealing with what others have said, rather than bringing up new topics). He hasn't said anything in the PM that was particularly alignment indicative, but I lean slightly village on him.

Bartimaeus: 1 post stating that he’s active, no actual activity followed.

 Neutral.

Elenion: Elenion started of stating that he believed that a strict contribution crusade was necessary, and followed up with 2 poke votes to get people into the thread. Despite some vehement opposition to his stance, he continues defending it with mostly reasonable arguments. 

His Role advice seems mostly decent for non-allomantic roles, though it seems to ignore the fact that the allomantic powers had limited charges for some powers.

His defense off the CC when people argued against it, rather than letting that discussion peter out, suggests to me that he believes in it, and is not trying to use it as a cover for elim-motivated votes. I do find it somewhat noteworthy that he remembered the limited allomantic charges on pewter (suggesting thugs use their power sparingly), while seeming to be fine with vote manips wasting a charge on announcing their presence, as if they had unlimited charges. I consider him Neutral for now.

SilverBlade5: Hasn’t added much. Voted on mage for the crusade, then retracted it when mage became active. States he has a good read on Elelnion. I've got a Neutral read on him.

Jondesu: Jondesu speaks in favor of the CC. More interestingly, he states he'll be watching Elenion after he had given role-advice, as apparently that has been used in the past to gain trust. He also explicitly reminds the town that Ruin is friendly, and that the town should support Ruin once he has been identified. This night, he has made a chart discussion his suspicion and lack of suspicion of all the players.

His comments about Ruin make me wonder if he's more intimately aquainted with Ati's shard than he has let on. Overall, he has given me a slight village read.

Aman: His 'short' posts are about as short as the Way of Kings  . He brings up good pieces of information, and I'm pretty sure whatever scheme he uses to make and organize notes puts the little excel sheet I built to shame. The one thing of note is his comment regarding Joe. He should be familiar enough with Narrative devices to know that stating that you have an informed opinion about something, but not sharing it will immediately result in people assuming the worst. Couple that with him later saying that if he wanted to cast suspicion on Joe, he would share what he has, and it really seems like he's trying to get us all focused on Joe without actually saying anything substantial about him. This, I think, is slightly suspicious, though he has since opened up a bit more about his opinions on Joe. 

Overall, I think Aman is village.

If I'm still alive next cycle, I'll add the rest. Now that several people have expressed suspicion at me over the comment in which I appeared certain I would survive, I think it's actually quite likely I'll survive for a couple of cycles before getting hit by either a vigilante kill or a lynch. After all, the longer I stay alive, the more suspicious I'll appear.

 

Edited March 13, 2017 by randuir
formatting

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 minutes ago, randuir said:

 

Aman: His 'short' posts are about as short as the Way of Kings  . He brings up good pieces of information, and I'm pretty sure whatever scheme he uses to make and organize notes puts the little excel sheet I built to shame. The one thing of note is his comment regarding Joe. He should be familiar enough with Narrative devices to know that stating that you have an informed opinion about something, but not sharing it will immediately result in people assuming the worst. Couple that with him later saying that if he wanted to cast suspicion on Joe, he would share what he has, and it really seems like he's trying to get us all focused on Joe without actually saying anything substantial about him. This, I think, is slightly suspicious, though he has since opened up a bit more about his opinions on Joe. 

Overall, I think Aman is village.

I think I explained my perspective on Joe thoroughly enough in my megapost this turn. It wasn't something I could really bring up until I knew Phatt's alignment, so I left it unsaid during the day, which is what Orlok was poking at me to explain. The only reason I mentioned Joe at all in that original post was because I had just gone on writing my thoughts on what Jon's stance on Phatt meant, and it would have been odd if I didn't say something.

That being said, you're right. Which subsequently increases my odds of death tonight, regardless of your alignment

[Elenion he/him]

@Amanuensis That information I'd prefer to keep with me, because that increases the chance that they'll slip.  The more attention they get, the more they'll focus on their posts and the less likely they'll slip if they're an elim. However, to ensure my primary suspect's identity isn't lost if I'm killed, I have told it to a Kandra who PM-ed me and whom I have a good gut read on.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Elenion said:

 

@Amanuensis That information I'd prefer to keep with me, because that increases the chance that they'll slip.  The more attention they get, the more they'll focus on their posts and the less likely they'll slip if they're an elim. However, to ensure my primary suspect's identity isn't lost if I'm killed, I have told it to a Kandra who PM-ed me and whom I have a good gut read on.

Man. All these "kandra PMs" and I don't have one. Guess no one wants to plot with little ole Amanuensis  but fair enough. Not having the information myself makes it harder for me to get a read on you, but I'll leave it at that, so long as you give the village something to work with next turn. Nesting on suspicions might seem like a great idea when things kick off, but it's a delicate situation to manage. Don't wait long enough and you risk the egg never hatching. Wait too long and you end up suffocating the critter. Was that a perfect analogy? No. But I think it got my point across.

[Jondesu he/him]

@randuir, I just wanted to note that the reason I was talking about Ruin is because in another game I read through, Ruin was being viewed as the enemy even though several people noted he could actually be on the village side for that game (the one with Hoid and the Shards I think, whichever it was, where I died really early). I just didn't want us falling into that trap of thinking again.

[DeTess she/her]

26 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

@randuir, I just wanted to note that the reason I was talking about Ruin is because in another game I read through, Ruin was being viewed as the enemy even though several people noted he could actually be on the village side for that game (the one with Hoid and the Shards I think, whichever it was, where I died really early). I just didn't want us falling into that trap of thinking again.

No worries. If I had a good reason to believe you held Ruin, I would have asked Joe to contact you, rather than throwing it into the thread like that. You are right about Ruin being a friendly entity, of course.

 

[Elenion he/him]

Guess that's the one benefit of being openly suspected by multiple people C1: suddenly people start knocking at your door asking your opinion on such-and-such player.

I plan on letting the chick hatch tomorrow, since as of right now it's looking less and less like a cowbird egg by the post. (A cowbird lays its eggs in nests of other species, where it hatches early and eats the other eggs.)

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

Guess that's the one benefit of being openly suspected by multiple people C1: suddenly people start knocking at your door asking your opinion on such-and-such player.

I plan on letting the chick hatch tomorrow, since as of right now it's looking less and less like a cowbird egg by the post. (A cowbird lays its eggs in nests of other species, where it hatches early and eats the other eggs.)

Fair. I'd rather kandra make PMs with other players anyway, as I have nothing worthwhile to say to them that I wouldn't just put in the thread. I would love a PM with Ruin, though... proceeds to tap spike impatiently.

Good to hear. I look forward to welcoming the baby bird into this brave, new world. That, or watching you feed it my entrails from the Cognitive Realm. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Amanuensis, I don't have any PMs either - you're not the only one people don't want to talk to...

Thank you for your explanation. I've been sick this evening, so won't be able to post. >>.

I want to apologise to everyone for this - I've been promising thoughts for a while, but have cleared my schedule for tomorrow evening, so will post then, if I'm alive. If I'm not well enough to post tomorrow evening, I won't be at work, so should have plenty of time to struggle through with with a post.

[Elbereth she/her]

Cycle is closed! New cycle will be up as soon as the forum lets me post again.  

[Elbereth she/her]

LG31: Day Two - Much Comical Death

---

Magestar was killed (twice)! He was a Noble Iron Ferring and Metallurgist!
Ecthelion was killed! He was a Skaa Gold Ferring!
Randuir was killed! He was a Noble Copper Misting and Kandra! 

All credit and upvotes go to DA for the writeup. 

Day 2 has begun. You have 48 hours to decide who to lynch. 

Player List

Spoiler

1. Phattemer - ExisaZinc Ferring, Metallurgist
2. Jondesu - Remart
3. Elenion - Boris
4. Silverblade - Ryth
5. Arinian - Alrin
6. Straw - Tua Mater
7. Hemalurgic Headshot - Marachi Band
8. Bartimaeus - Kelsier
9. Amanuensis - Neer
10. Ecthelion IIIGold Ferring
11. Magestar - Magister AgemtsarIron Ferring, Metallurgist
12. Droughtbringer - The Great Lord Mister King Count General Doctor President Sir William VII
13. Randuir - DougalCopper Misting, Kandra
14. Stick
15. Szeth Son-Son Mallano - Osuer
16. Joe - Jack Tormander

 

Edited March 16, 2017 by Alvron

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

LG31: Day Two - Much Comical Death

[Insert Awesome Comic]

Magestar was killed (twice)! He was a Noble Iron Ferring and Metallurgist!
Ecthelion was killed! He was a Skaa Gold Ferring!
Randuir was killed! He was a Noble Copper Misting and Kandra! 

Leave it to El and DA to get creative with these last two write ups. I know this isn't the first comic that's been made for one of these games, but nonetheless, great job DA! I didn't see it coming, so I'm sure you can imagine the grin on my face when I logged in and saw it. Next post you make, consider it upvoted already.

For a second cycle, this is exceptionally informative. Four kills simultaneously occurring means four different attackers. Looking at them, I believe that Mage and Rand were attacked by the Skaa and Kelsier, while Mage was simultaneously attacked by a Coinshot, and Ecth was attacked by Ruin. I am very happy that Ecth was killed, because as I stated the previous turn, he was the player I was most suspicious of. If I had to guess, his accusation of me being Preservation caught Ruin's attention, maybe because he thought that Ecth was the real Preservation trying to push his attention elsewhere, or because he was convinced by my deduction that Ecth made that comment as a way to remove a Noble!Aman from the game. An alternative explanation is that the Coinshot and Ruin attacked Ecth and Rand while the Skaa/Kelsier doubletapped Mage, but I doubt that's the case unless Mage received a PM from a Skaa and claimed self-protection, which is very unlikely. Also, as a player who has been on an eliminator team where we had a one-time extra kill (LG17), I vividly recall the mindset we had at the time, which was to use the power immediately to get rid of an extra player, just in case the player with the ability was killed sooner rather than later.

Considering Ecth had the power to store extra-lives, that also corroborates my theory that one of the kills was a village Coinshot. Granted that with Ruin in play, some way for one of the Skaa to defend themselves would certainly be helpful, but something as versatile as a Gold Ferring suggests that there might be more opportunities for him to die than what's normally expected.

As for the villagers, we've so far had a Zinc Ferring (a lookout, which honestly I think is too weak on it's own, and also might be why Phatt was trying to arrange contact with a kandra), an Iron Ferring (a player with a one-in-two-cycle night kill immunity, which like the Gold Ferring, suggests the presence of a higher-number-than-average kills) and a Copper Misting (a smoker, to protect himself and one other player from being scanned or their votes being manipulated). If I had to guess, Rand's role makes me think that in addition to Kelsier, the Skaa might have a Zinc, Brass, or Bronze Misting. If I had to guess, it would be a Brass, but it depends a bit on this question I'm about to ask. @Elbereth / @Darkness Ascendant / @Conquestor, does a Brass Misting choose any vote to double, or can they only double their own? I'm pretty sure it's the former, but I just want to make sure before I make a wrong assumption.

We're not off to a bad start so far. We have 13 players left, of which I would guess there's Kelsier and a Skaa Brass Misting, with a potential for one more. Working with my assumption that one of the kills was Kelsier using Steel, we can narrow down Kelsier to one of the more active players. There's a chance they were just being precautionary, but also a chance that they were facing some form of scrutiny already, and would prefer to get the one-time kill out of the way. With that in mind, I would reason that either Joe or Elenion is Kelsier. Disregarding that last consideration, Jondesu is also a possibility, as well as Arinian and Orlok. I have a tentative innocent gut read on Arinian, though, and I still believe that Orlok is a Noble as well, although I still exercise a small amount of paranoia.

I personally consider Ruin confirmed, which means Preservation is in the game as well. In retrospect, with both of those powerful, Noble aligned roles, I'm thinking that there's a better chance that the Skaa have a fourth player, to begin with, which may also explain why Kelsier went with burning steel first, rather than spend one of his less useful abilities in an attempt to convert a player. With Ecth's loss, I expect that Kelsier will start doing just that, probably starting with Copper, Bronze or Tin.

@Hemalurgic_Headshot, I think we have enough information to work with that we don't need to resort to your vote-for-an-inactive plan just yet, but I'd like to hear your opinion on the matter. Anything stand out to you, knowing what you do, now? @Bartimaeus, I tagged you last turn saying that I would suggest voting for you, since you're the least active of all the players, discounting @Szeth Son-Son Mallano, who hasn't logged into the website in almost a week. Please tell me what I can do to help get you active in this game. Likewise, @Straw and @Silverblade5. A lot has happened. Do you have more to say?

I'd tag the rest of the players, but I trust that they'll chime in on their own without me prodding them.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Silverblade5 he/him]

@Amanuensis I just got back from a busy day of school and track practice session. I'm still reading night 1.

[Elbereth she/her]

A brass misting may choose any vote to double. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Silverblade5 said:

@Amanuensis I just got back from a busy day of school and track practice session. I'm still reading night 1.

No worries. There's still over 46 hours left in the turn, so no rush. Just want to see you participate a little bit more than yesterday.

3 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

A brass misting may choose any vote to double. 

Thought so. Thank you very much, El.

So yeah, I would guess the Skaa to have Kelsier, a Brass Misting, and maybe a Steel or Tin Ferring left, if they began with four players.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Droughtbringer]

Well I am going to begin the plan I suggested last turn, and place my vote on Szeth @Szeth Son-Son Mallano as to try and lynch an innactive this cycle, mainly because I want to just get my plan going. Also we seem to have lost Randuir and Magestar who were both really active throughout the last cycle, and contributed a lot. It seems like it's going to be a game where those are fill the forums with posts die first. 

My big problem is this: @Amanuensis You are not dead. You have not said that you were attacked or any other reason as to why you are still alive. Reasons:

1. You are an Elim and thusly wouldn't kill yourself.

2. You are not an Elim and they are keeping you alive as to make us think you are an Elim.

3. You are not an Elim and you are just have some really bad guesses towards who is an Elim and thusly they want to keep you alive as to distract the village.

4. You are not an Elim but the Elims want to try and convert you because you are an amazing player at SE.

Gah I hate these...but there is not enough evidence either way as to check weather or not you are an Elim so...my gut read is that I should trust you right now Aman. So welcome to my trust circle? (of one person)

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 hours ago, DroughtBringer said:

Well I am going to begin the plan I suggested last turn, and place my vote on Szeth @Szeth Son-Son Mallano as to try and lynch an inactive this cycle, mainly because I want to just get my plan going. Also we seem to have lost Randuir and Magestar who were both really active throughout the last cycle, and contributed a lot. It seems like it's going to be a game where those are fill the forums with posts die first. 

My big problem is this: @Amanuensis You are not dead. You have not said that you were attacked or any other reason as to why you are still alive. Reasons:

1. You are an Elim and thusly wouldn't kill yourself.

2. You are not an Elim and they are keeping you alive as to make us think you are an Elim.

3. You are not an Elim and you are just have some really bad guesses towards who is an Elim and thusly they want to keep you alive as to distract the village.

4. You are not an Elim but the Elims want to try and convert you because you are an amazing player at SE.

Gah I hate these...but there is not enough evidence either way as to check weather or not you are an Elim so...my gut read is that I should trust you right now Aman. So welcome to my trust circle? (of one person)

Fair enough. I might join you, but I'll hold off for now. I want to see who other players want to lynch first, since I don't want to affect how other players think too much, like I did with the previous lynch. And yeah. Sadly, that's how these games tend to work. Not a lot of elim teams are willing to let the big talkers survive for long, in the interest of victory, which is why it's important that everyone maintains a decent level of activity and independence.

Ah, yes. I figured someone would bring it up. Just didn't expect it to be you.

1. A distinct possibility. I wish I could cite me explaining last turn why Ecth was the player I was most suspicious of being a Skaa, but it's not like I haven't cast suspicion on teammates in past games, or even bused them entirely. I would argue that the last time I did that, I did it to STINK, who was genuinely upset by it, and since then I have made a self-vow to only resort to those sort of tactics in an emergency / or if an ally explicitly states they're okay with me going against them, publicly. But I don't expect that argument to hold much weight, as it's really just hearsay.
2. A potential explanation, but not really mutually exclusive to the following two. In fact, it kind of goes hand in hand with point three, which I'll address in a second.
3. If my guesses were really bad, it makes sense a kind of sense to leave me alive, as I'll be able to lead the village astray. This is dangerous, however, because I have been known to revisit my opinions of players after new evidence is presented, which can affect my trust or suspicion of them significantly, and I also thing long term rather than short, so I don't always let the eliminators know if I'm onto them until I'm sure. Plus, there's the fact that I was right on the money about Ecth being Skaa. I'm actually surprised they didn't attack me for that reason, as if he was still alive, he'd be the first player I vote for, next to Joe.
4. This is probably the answer you're looking for. Now that I believe Kelsier has burned his Steel, I would be willing to bet he intends to use one of his less important metals to convert me tonight. If it works, great. If it doesn't, the Skaa can just use their group kill on me the next turn. This is something that even Joe himself said he would do, if he were one of them.

I find it interesting that you didn't bring up the 5th possibility: that they suspected I had protection. Thing is, the only type of protection I could have from the Skaa kill last night was if I was Preservation or a Thug. Lurchers only protect from Coinshots (which is something I only just now realized, when looking over the rules. This means there's a chance the Skaa have an Iron Misting, rather than one of the potential roles I listed before) and if I was an Iron Ferring, I would have been vulnerable last night, due to me needing to store a charge. Considering neither Rand or myself caught that earlier (he was the one who initially suggested that protection roles watch over me, towards the end of the previous turn), I can't help but find it interesting that you didn't mention it. If Alvron was in this game, I'd almost think you two were Skaa buddies

Edited March 14, 2017 by Amanuensis