Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[Kipper]

@Hael

There is certainly a small possibility that Meta and Kas are evil. Since Kas is one of the ones that you possibly suspect, I'll defend him instead of him defending himself. Sorry if I overlap, Kas.

1. Meta and Kas are too valuable to lose to the Eliminator team. Seriously, if this deception was uncovered, that's THREE Cultists right off the bat.

2. If this plot had really been a plot, Winter, I think, would have fought more in the thread. Maybe not that much harder, but she wouldn't have just keeled over. When Eliminators have a plot, they have a basic desire to see it implemented correctly. In my opinion, what Winter was doing after Meta outed her was trolling.

Of course, if just Meta was an Eliminator, that would mean the Eliminator team would lose one and not two, if the plot was uncovered. I don't know, does Meta have a better reputation as a manipulator or a strategist?

Hael, I can't take my vote off you right now. You seem to be making strategies that are implausible from the get-go, just to get us to talk about them.

[Haelbarde]

@Hael

There is certainly a small possibility that Meta and Kas are evil. Since Kas is one of the ones that you possibly suspect, I'll defend him instead of him defending himself. Sorry if I overlap, Kas.

1. Meta and Kas are too valuable to lose to the Eliminator team. Seriously, if this deception was uncovered, that's THREE Cultists right off the bat.

2. If this plot had really been a plot, Winter, I think, would have fought more in the thread. Maybe not that much harder, but she wouldn't have just keeled over. When Eliminators have a plot, they have a basic desire to see it implemented correctly. In my opinion, what Winter was doing after Meta outed her was trolling.

Of course, if just Meta was an Eliminator, that would mean the Eliminator team would lose one and not two, if the plot was uncovered. I don't know, does Meta have a better reputation as a manipulator or a strategist?

Hael, I can't take my vote off you right now. You seem to be making strategies that are implausible from the get-go, just to get us to talk about them.

That's entirely fair enough. I disagree that it's implausible (well, focused on Meta), but I'd agree that it's improbable. And I'm sorry that it's distracted discussion off of peoples personal suspicions.

 

---

 

My views on peoples at the moment:

 

People I Trust

Cleared

• Meta - Willing to trust him for the time being (obviously not entirely, but I do believe the chances of him being evil are quite low. Will reevaluate a few cycles later)
• Renegade,  Neo, Twei, Wilson, Kas - confirmed by phattemer/meta. Yes I'm aware people can become Odiv but for the moment, Cultists are the bigger concern. Also, Gyorn/Odiv can't kill us, and don't necessarily need us dead. 

Other

• Wonko/Sart - Trusted Wonko,  don't have a read on Sart, being his first day
• Dowanx - First part of the game, had some strategy discussion, but was then sick from the 28th, but has started posting again - I think I'd agree with what he had to say in analysis. I would want a bit more time to consolidate my opinion though.
• Seonid - Has had an extended dialogue with Meta. I'm presuming that Meta doesn't outright distrust them. Going to operate under the assumption that they're probably fairly trustworthy until Meta (or anyone else - don't think people have complaints with Seonid?)

 

People I Don't Trust

• Bort - I would agree with what Dowanx had to say in his analysis post. I'd be equally happy to lynch as to let Meta do his thing. 
• Zas - I think people feel he's probably a Cultist? But can't do all that much necessarily sitting as Hoed. We should take him out eventually though.
• Alvron - Has been moderately active, but hasn't had much to say beyond Gyorn/Pirate considerations.
• Ostrich - inactive, though I suspect he should now be about to be replaced - 17th shard says he hasn't been online in over 2 days, and he hasn't posted full stop for two and a half weeks.

People I'm Not Sure About

• Mckeedee - While hasn't been super active, when he's posted he's usually contributed something useful. I would put him borderline trustworthy - don't have enough on him to say, I think.
• Kipper - Suspects me, but that's okay. I would suspect me too. Has been quite active and tried to be useful, having had some useful things to say. Don't necessarily trust him though.
• Wyrm - Just replace Aonar. Aonar didn't do much, so it'd hard to say. Wyrm so far has been useful enough, but I think we need more time to tell.
• Honey Badger - Just as new as me. Hasn't said much, but seems to be another one of the people that's had school to worry about for the present. Gut feeling says he's citizen (roleless/pirate). 
• Clanky - Fairly quiet. Will reserve judgement for a bit longer. Would tend towards not trusting him. He also (I don't think), ever gave me a future reading :/
• Lightsworn Panda - Hasn't done a lot since the start - most of his posts have been spent defending himself after voting for Wonko once.
• Emerald - Problem is that Piff didn't do anything, and Emerald has only really posted once. He did call out a few people when he did though - Bort, Alvron, Clanky, and Surgebound
• Surgebound - has had school stuff. Or had an animation project on the 1 June. He did then pop back in on the 4th. Has been online today, but we've not heard anything. 
• Luckat - Posts once every 2-3 days. Hasn't contributed very much, other than notifying us about the activities of the Gyorn.

Inactive List:

(By which I mean people who've are barely (or not even) posting, as I see it, anyway)

• Luckat
• Surgebound
• Emerald
• Ostrich

[The Honey Badger]

Hey guys, I have been a little busy but i now have some time because I am done with school. 

 

I thought from the discussion the last day cycle that Zas was the next obvious choice. We know (I need clarification on that), that there is a cultist in Elantris. Zas seemed like the cultist to the discussion yesterday, so I thought he was the vote. 

 

Out of Hael and Luckat, I think Luckat is the one I will vote for. She was an extremely involved player in LG11, Meta can very well attest of that. She seemed to play the game smart, and was very vocal. Part of that was that she couldn't die to the spiked (lurcher savant), but still she would still contribute more to this game. But now she has gone silent, just enough to make her not seem inactive, but still she is very quiet. I think the difference in play styles from one game to the other is my biggest case against her. 

[luckat]

I will now turn my sights to Luckat. You've got no problem jumping on to talk about who's been converted and to offer up some very minor points of analysis that I'm not even sure could be called analysis, since Meta doesn't really have a reason to lie about the pendant, so it's obvious that he was poisoned. I know you're smart and very analytically-minded. How about you speak up a little more? My vote will not move until you start participating, and I don't just mean a minor little post. I mean genuine participation.

 

I said who had been converted because I figured I might as well get that out before too much time passed. I knew I wasn’t up for any actual analysis, but I didn’t want info about the converts to be kept from the thread until I had time to organize my thoughts about other things. I added the bit about Meta being poisoned because it was on my mind at the time. That wasn’t analysis. It was a quick sentence showing how unlikely it was that Meta had not been poisoned. I wasn’t trying to imply I thought Meta had lied.

 

Out of Hael and Luckat, I think Luckat is the one I will vote for. She was an extremely involved player in LG11, Meta can very well attest of that. She seemed to play the game smart, and was very vocal. Part of that was that she couldn't die to the spiked (lurcher savant), but still she would still contribute more to this game. But now she has gone silent, just enough to make her not seem inactive, but still she is very quiet. I think the difference in play styles from one game to the other is my biggest case against her.

And that wore me out. I changed my play style a lot for LG11 (and MR5 and QF6 to an extent). I was a lot more active in PMs than I have ever been, although I still didn’t post a lot. I was trying something new, and it worked during those games, but now I’m still trying to recover from all those conversations. I thought I might be able to be more active in this game after a cycle or two despite how I felt at the end of LG11, but I’m still not in a good mindset to contribute and post.

I’m sorry I haven’t been contributing. I’ve been trying to, but I just haven’t had many thoughts this game, and the ones I have had I’ve been having trouble putting into words.

One thing that I was thinking about was how much we could trust Meta. I thought how quickly Winter gave up when Meta came forward was a bit odd. Not only did she not even attempt to fight back, she gave up within ten minutes, which isn’t really much time to discuss with her teammates. But any plan I thought of that involved Meta being a Cultist sacrificing one of their own sounded contrived and unnecessary, and I didn't want to bring it up when it would distract from other players. After reading through the thread, however, I found that Araris’s explanation makes the most sense.

 

I think Winter was fairly clever by giving up after the reveal of her identity, because it meant there was no point in any eliminators trying to get involved in discussion, and it was a decent attempt to stop any more discussion from happening that day. It also seems like Winter suspected something like that reveal would happen, and cautioned her team to not jump on the lynch for Meta.

In fact, it explains it so well that I almost find myself wondering about his alignment and whether he saw Winter’s thoughts. However, I don’t think that’s really enough to accuse him, and I know he’s clever enough on his own that seeing it isn’t the only way he could come up with that idea.

I think it wouldn't hurt for the people Meta scans to get in touch with him so they can vouch that he knows their roles (other than Kas since he already shared his role), but other than that I think we can trust Meta for now.

Player analysis isn’t my strength. I’m better at analyzing game mechanics and strategies. Right now I think the thing I could most effectively analyze is possible Gyorn strategies, but I don’t want to give them any ideas and I don’t think we really need to focus on them for at least a few more cycles other than to share converts and keep in mind that anyone other than a Priest could become the Odiv eventually. The Cultists are a bigger threat right now. I can try to analyze all the players, but I’m not sure how well I can even do. It would take a while, and I don't have much time today.

[Kipper]

Haelbarde. You've convinced me enough that you're innocent.

Clanky, what's happening?

[Wyrmhero]

Whoops, it appears I never actually voted for Alvron.

[Emerald101]

 

Inactive List:

(By which I mean people who've are barely (or not even) posting, as I see it, anyway)

• Luckat
• Surgebound
• Emerald
• Ostrich

 

to be clear: I was out camping the past two days, and just finished reading up on the thread, thoughts forthcoming in a little while.

[Haelbarde]

to be clear: I was out camping the past two days, and just finished reading up on the thread, thoughts forthcoming in a little while.

I possibly should have noted that.

[ hr]

Vote Tally

Luckat{3}: Wilson*, Honey Badger

Kasimir{1}: Kasimir

Ostrich{1}: a smart guy

Clanky{1}: Araris

Alvron{1}: Wyrm

If I vote I'm going to have to do it within the next hour, as I'll be out till about 9:30 MDT.

[Lightsworn Panda]

Firstly, sorry for not being particularly active. I've been a bit busy, and a lot of my posts had to be made on my phone. I also had to go on an all-day trip yesterday (I am never getting on a horse again. Pandas were never made to ride).

 

Kas, I find it a bit hard to contribute to the discussion when you and a couple of other experienced players have covered nearly everything the sun could shine on. Analysis and discussion was never my forte. There's a reason why my official Title in the Inquisition is The Hand, which is just another way of saying Cannon Fodder. I also have terrible self-initiative, too. 

 

Meta, how does me being defensive make me not a Gyorn? I'm interested.

 

Is it just me, or does it seem like people are trying to take advantage of Luckat's silence to lynch her? She's been very quiet in previous games (i.e. LG10. Still sore from that), and she's generally a late-game player.

[Emerald101]

I'm gonna have to vote for clanky.

 

you've been entirely inactive (in-thread, anyway) for the last little while, only coming out of your shell when mentioned or accused by somebody else. Earlier, when you were posting more often, the majority of your posts were either vague suspicions with little reasoning, or RP. That smells to me of somebody spending enough time in the thread to try to stay off the radar, but not enough to actually say anything. (Kinda like what I did in MR6)

[Clanky]

Haelbarde. You've convinced me enough that you're innocent.

Clanky, what's happening?

 

I haven't been able to spend as much time as I wanted on this game but I have a little time now so I will share my thoughts. As for the people who calling out on my vote on maill as suspicious I can understand that. I voted for maill after reading Wilsons analysis which is what convinced me. I suppose I could have added a few sentences of analysis but it mostly would have been repeats of what others said. 

 

In almost every post that luckat has written there is something about being busy or not having enough time. It seems genuine and I believe that is a fair reason for her lack of analysis.

 

I am going to put my vote on Honey Badger for now. Before Winter was revealed by Meta he was defensive of her saying that she was acting differently then she did last time as an eliminator. Then after being revealed by meta he posted a "darn tricked by an eliminator again" posts that I find suspicious. He also said that he thought the Zas vote was just meant to prevent maills lynch, which he seemed fairy certain about. Also most of his analysis has been to do with Converts and Elantrians, sort of avoiding the Cultists. 

 

Hael, sorry for not giving you a reading yet I will try and do it soon. 

 

 

I possibly should have noted that.

[ hr]

Vote Tally 

Luckat{3}: Wilson*, Honey Badger

Kasimir{1}: Kasimir

Ostrich{1}: a smart guy

Clanky{1}: Araris

Alvron{1}: Wyrm

If I vote I'm going to have to do it within the next hour, as I'll be out till about 9:30 MDT.

 

Is this right with Kas voting on himself?

 

EDIT: I didn't see Emeralds post till after I posted mine. This was posted at a terrible time for me since I was just voted on for only coming on to defend myself just in time for me to come on and defend myself. Yes I posted more early because I was doing my RP at the beginning of the game and have stopped since I thought people had stopped asking for readings(I missed Hael asking). I don't really have any defence against what you said since yes my votes were mostly based on vague suspicions since I didn't have much to go on. 

Edited June 6, 2015 by Clanky

[little wilson]

I'm no longer quite as suspicious about Luckat, but I'm not entirely sure who to vote for, since my two biggest suspicions (Luckat and Mek) appear to be incorrect. For now.

I'm going to wait for a bit, but my vote could well end up in Araris. Multiple people have commented about his behavior in PMs and in the thread. I haven't been losing him much attention since I've been focused on others, but the comments made about him make sense with what I've seen, so my vote will likely go there unless a better target comes up. This vote is still far too close for it being a little over 3 hours to the rollover.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Just dropping in to say I'm out of town at the moment, and the internet is much dodgier than I was expecting. Hopefully will be able to catch up before the next day cycle.

[Haelbarde]

 

Is this right with Kas voting on himself?

 

...(I missed Hael asking). ...

He seems to be (stemmed from me putting a vote on him at one point). And I'm not too worried about a future reading, but if you have the time...

 

I'm no longer quite as suspicious about Luckat, but I'm not entirely sure who to vote for, since my two biggest suspicions (Luckat and Mek) appear to be incorrect. For now.

I'm going to wait for a bit, but my vote could well end up in Araris. Multiple people have commented about his behavior in PMs and in the thread. I haven't been losing him much attention since I've been focused on others, but the comments made about him make sense with what I've seen, so my vote will likely go there unless a better target comes up. This vote is still far too close for it being a little over 3 hours to the rollover.

This is my problem. The person I'd be most willing to vote for is Bort, but also might as well let Meta do his thing. I'll put a vote on Araris to help out if you decide to go with that (and hopes this doesn't come back to bite me).

 

---

Vote Tally 
Luckat{1}: Honey Badger
Kasimir{1}: Kasimir
Ostrich{1}: a smart guy
Clanky{2}: Araris, Emerald
Alvron{1}: Wyrm

Honey Badger{1}: Clanky

Araris{1}: Haelbarde

[Seonid]

You know, I'm just going to vote for Bort. That vote on phatt was suspicious enough to lynch for, in my opinion. I know Meta's going to scan him tonight, but if we lynch now, Meta can scan zas instead, saving us a cycle.

 

Also, there are no really good suspicions at present. No reasons given by anyone are really sufficient for a lynch when there is such an obvious target as Bort. I look at it this way. When Meta scans him and finds that he's evil, we'll have to lynch him anyways. If we do it now, we have another cycle to discuss and come up with better suspicions than the ones we've got.

[Kipper]

I'm going to put a vote on The Honey Badger.

I forgot about that, Clanky. Thanks.

[Kasimir]

Gah, overslept, thanks to work. Will go through the rest of the thread in a bit, but first, I have the morning report to do...
 
This is the morning report from Elantris:
 
1. Bort has finally broken the Silence. Meta continues to scan him tonight.
 
2. Meta has scanned and cleared Mek. We've been sitting on the results for pretty much the same reason Ren and I sat on the results of the Neo scan.
 
3. Neo's thoughts are that the people who aren't saying much are just basically providing great places for Cultists to conceal themselves.
 
4. Ren would like people to stop obsessing about past playstyle. According to him, playstyle will differ from game to game based in the strategic needs of each game and RL. It's not really all that good at picking out genuinely suspicious people.
 
This is Kas, reporting delayed from Elantris, may the Maker help him because he needs sleep...

 

-

 

Edit: Sart, Meta would like to check in if you still plan to follow through.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Kasimir

[dowanx]

I am going to vote for Alvron this round although that might change based on how people vote over the next 50 minutes.  

[Alvron]

So that's two votes on me and two on Badger.  Although I would love to keep it tied to test my theory of a Cultist Debtor, I am not however willing to be one of the test subjects.

 

Sorry Badger.

[Emerald101]

^^with that rep the shaod might take you any second

[Alvron]

Believe it or not I would love to end up in Elantris.  The secrets hidden there intrigue me.  I am looking forward to the end game just so I can see what Hero/Tulir came up with.

[Herowannabe]

Day 5 is now over. Writeup coming as soon as I'm able. Probably will be a little while because I got home late and just barely sat down to my computer.

 

EDIT: And to top things off we're in the middle of a big thunderstorm here and my internet is being super flakey. Wish me luck.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Herowannabe]

 

GM Question: When do scans happen in relation to poison - would a scan fail if they were poisoned the same cycle, or would it go through before getting sent to Elantris?

 

I just saw this as I was tallying up votes. Scans happen before the poison (or the real shaod, for that matter) kicks in.

[little wilson]

EDIT: And to top things off we're in the middle of a big thunderstorm here and my internet is being super flakey. Wish me luck.

And that storm is the exact reason why I couldn't vote. My drive up to Salt Lake took far longer than it should've....

[Haelbarde]

Believe it or not I would love to end up in Elantris.  The secrets hidden there intrigue me.  I am looking forward to the end game just so I can see what Hero/Tulir came up with.

Would agree with you here. 

 

---

And while we wait in eager anticipation, a final vote count as far as I can see:

 

Vote Tally 

Luckat{1}: Honey Badger

Kasimir{?}: Kasimir

Ostrich{1}: a smart guy

Clanky{2}: Araris, Emerald

Alvron{2}: Wyrm, dowanx

Honey Badger{3}: Clanky, Kipper, Alvron

Araris{1}: Haelbarde

Bort{1}: Seonid