Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: I’ve actually read the posts on this page now, look at me :D. (Edit: smh of course this is on a new page.) I don’t like how fast the Iguana votes piled up. Hyena’s post looks to me like it has a slight case of confirmation bias; it’s well constructed but I think if they can write Gorilla off for playstyle they definitely could see Iguana’s behavior as playstyle as well- especially since Iguana has explained their playstyle and Gorilla hasn’t. @Charcoal Hyena, you responded to my Gorilla vote last cycle, what do you think of my reasoning for my Gorilla vote this cycle? I'm actually glad you just pinged me because it made me realize how late it is. I don't think I'm going to be able to finish the reads list I've been working on, but I'll post what I've done so far and try to answer your query. Unfinished D2 Reads: Spoiler Firm Village Reads Salmon Meerkat: Insane amount of effort, lots of content consistency + mindmelds, amicable PMs. My player ID of them is probably a large factor in how I feel, since if I'm right, being village would explain how much passion they are putting into solving this particular puzzle. I don't foresee myself doubting this slot's intentions unless a bunch of green flips force me to reevaluate them. Mild Village Reads Chartreuse Penguin: Mint Heron: Neutral+ Reads Coral Swan: Has made 16 posts this turn (yay activity). Of them, I found their reaction to the Opal's death pretty standard (Though I'm never happy about a villager death, I understand feeling relieved that a slot no longer needs to be analyzed). They are a strong advocate of Village!Albatross and Elim!Gorilla, which tbh, fair. I feel similarly about Albatross and I understand why Gorilla's vote today would push Village!Coral back on that wagon considering prior suspicion. Our conversation regarding an E!Coinshot felt reasonable enough, even if I disagree with their "full stop no" mindset. I have no problems with their reads list like some others, and find their stated conclusions mostly sound / aligned with my own, except for a handful of "Do Not Kill" reads (Beagle, Scorpion, Axlotl, Elephant). I'm curious if @Coral Swan's opinion of Mint Heron has changed after Mint's most recent post, since it moved them up in my estimation and they had Mint as "will help kill" at the start of the day. Also, for the four people I named in the parenthesis above, can you explain their placements? Sorry if I missed your thoughts on them, but they're in my neutral zone and would like your insight, which in turn could help me figure you out better. Emerald Falcon: I don't really get their vote against Coral earlier this day (w/ tunneling comment) and quick retraction, in which they call Coral one of their top village reads before switching to Iguana. I like their reasoning for reading Chartreuse as Village (which I'm leaning towards as well), which is quickly followed up by another rebound on Coral (wants to suspect them), acknowledging that it could be paranoia-based. The bit about the Coinshot claiming to them and reading the Coinshot village is... interesting. I really don't know how I feel about that yet, so will mull over it for now. I also agree with their response to Mint Heron's post, which is again followed by thinking Coral is village again. Looking at the constant flip-flopping now, it feels pretty genuine that they're having trouble figuring Coral out and actively trying to fix that. Amber Vulture: Closer to true neutral than neutral+, though willing to put them here for now due to amicable PMs. They're clearly putting a lot of work into this game (NAI) which means I want to see where that work leads before I can figure out this slot better. Neutral- Reads Azure Mouse: As Salmon has pointed out, Azure's been caught lurking several times and not participated much (only posted once and it was NAI). @Azure Mouse, you're not sleeping with your phone browser open, are you? We'd love to hear your thoughts, since it appears that you're around. Turquoise Gorilla: I've said a lot about Turquoise already, but my general consensus is they're not an analysis-heavy player. I don't love any of the D1 votes levied against them, although today's seemingly forced vote on Albatross is a new factor. Their logic behind the vote is definitely faulty, and I do agree with Coral that not stating their apparent-prior suspicion of Albatross until then is a potential excuse for an opportunistic vote. At this point, I'd really love to see a reads list from Turquoise even if it's not incredibly detailed, because I don't know where they stand for most people and thus am having a difficult time seeing the game through their eyes. @Turquoise Gorilla, I don't want to pressure or rush you, but I will say that if you value your life, this could go a long way in helping us figure you out better. Mild Eliminator Reads Saffron Iguana: While I liked their light-hearted tone early D1 and believed their initial 'hecklings' to be a sign of effort to solve the game, their later posts + prolonging of their vote left something to be desired. I've said enough about them already, so peep my last post if you missed it for more thoughts. Firm Eliminator Reads Too early in the game and not enough info to say. Bonus: WHOmegalul Reads @Plum Rhinoceros @Sunburst Toucan @Quartz Zebra: Unlike the previous slots in this section, has actually posted (4 times). All NAI RP though. Any thoughts, Zebra? @Ivory Dragonfly: Has only posted once to say they're busy. I hope to hear from you soon! @Melon Dingo: Hasn't posted today, and it's nearly 1am so I realllllllly need to sleep. Putting their old posts on the backburner for now. Amethyst Scorpion Fuchsia Ostrich Magenta Albatross Melon Dingo Onyx Flamingo Oxblood Beagle Pearl Chameleon Sapphire Elephant Scarlet Octopus Violet Axolotl Both your section and Turquoise's section might be enough to satisfy. WRT Saffron, I absolutely can see Iguana's play style reasoning being an explanation for their behavior, but unlike Turquoise, I'm being told that's what it is rather than what my gut is saying + where the D1 Wagonomics is pointing. My vote against them now was to add pressure and see how they respond, since it only seems like they vote when their life is at risk, although it also comes from a place of maximizing information. Many people have commented on Saffron one way or another, and after spending so much of my time mentally spiraling around D1's EoD and their role in it, there's definitely a degree of me just wanting to clear the slot for my own sanity's sake. That said, I haven't gotten to their most recent post (or the last 10 for that matter, since I've been focusing on my reads list). Skimming it quickly now, I'm glad to see them consolidating their reads, even if I don't like their uncharitable take of my case against them, but I'll need to read into it deeper before I see if it impacts my feelings. Edited January 9, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 I am a little conflicted. I know I distrust Iguana. I have started to distrust Albatross, just from talking myself into not liking their public reaction to their survival. And I am tempted to create a three way tie with three hours left to see what happens. At the same time, that would put Flamingo, a player I have very few opinions on, in danger. I do not understand the opinion that they have been suspicious, even after reading the explanations multiple times. Plus their latest post reads as genuine to me. I am not going to create the tie, as tempting as it may be. Here is the current vote count: Saffron Iguana (4): Emerald Falcon, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle Onyx Flamingo (3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan Magenta Albatross (2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla Pearl Chameleon (2): Saffron Iguana, Violent Axolotl Emerald Falcon (1): Magenta Albatross Scarlet Octopus (1): Coral Swan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turquoise Gorilla Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Charcoal Hyena said: @Turquoise Gorilla, I don't want to pressure or rush you, but I will say that if you value your life, this could go a long way in helping us figure you out better. *sigh* Ok. But… not right now. Sometime today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Saffron Iguana (4): Emerald Falcon, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle Onyx Flamingo (3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan Magenta Albatross (2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla Pearl Chameleon (2): Saffron Iguana, Violent Axolotl Emerald Falcon (1): Magenta Albatross Scarlet Octopus (1): Chartreuse Penguin Fixed it. (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 I don't like waiting until the last minute to vote, so I'm going to go ahead and place one on Saffron Iguana, since they're my top sus. I would love to hear more reasoning behind the Gorilla suspicion, though. @Coral Swan -- Edeis woke to the sound of her own name, followed by some angry grumbling. Had she been dozing? A glance out the window showed yes, she had been out for a bit. Perhaps she had angered someone with her gossip. That happened sometimes. She put her ear to the door to get a better listen of those talking outside. What were they saying about her? Oh. Oh dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 Emerald Falcon as well as updated vote count Saffron Iguana(5): Emerald Falcon, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo Onyx Flamingo(3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan Magenta Albatross(2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla Pearl Chameleon(2): Violet Axolotl, Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus(1): Chartreuse Penguin Votes on a lot of people vanished again and seem to be going on Iguana and Flamingo. They both voted on Crocodile last round as well as Falcon and Ostrich, though Iguana's was self preservation, so don't really see that as too incriminating. So many people posted VC's while I was typing this up, oh well. Here's another I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said: *sigh* Ok. But… not right now. Sometime today though. Again, I don't want to pressure you! I ascribe to the belief that the most important thing in these games is that we all have fun, and that often means different things for each person. Alas, we still have to collectively solve the game, and since D1 you've undoubtedly become entangled in it besides, a good game show host should be ecstatic! Not dejected! edit: On that note, I'm dead tired. I'll try to set an alarm for 1-2 hours before rollover to see if anything new shakes out + if there's good reason for me to change my vote, but overall I'm currently comfortable with my vote and may just keep sleeping. Though I've felt less sick today (especially compared to a horrible yesterday), my schedule has been severely out of whack. Edited January 9, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 gaiz- Quote Saffron Iguana(5): Emerald Falcon, Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo Onyx Flamingo(3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan Magenta Albatross(2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla Pearl Chameleon(1): Violet Axolotl Scarlet Octopus(1): Chartreuse Penguin ig hasn't voted think its parasitic on my count & i registered saff on pearl when shld be other way round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Salmon Meerkat said: gaiz- ig hasn't voted think its parasitic on my count & i registered saff on pearl when shld be other way round. When I posted mine I was going to say something but then two other people posted VCs with that in there so I assumed I just missed it and included it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 I’m prefacing this post with the acknowledgement this serves as a break in my usual playstyle. Previous breaks have been isolated to sickness or distraction – it turns out that being in class doesn’t really facilitate awareness of keeping my typing style the way it was and I was too tired to bother going back to fix it to be consistent. I don’t think it’s worth tanking the drop in clarity to do this in my usual playstyle so I will put in the effort of cleaning up the post. Any resemblances to the distinctive posting style of a particular SE player are purely intentional I assure you. I. D1: The Original Trilogy Spoiler We ended the cycle with the expected vote count of: Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> Absent: Quartz Zebra, Azure Mouse, Amber Vulture, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, Opal Lion, Plum Rhinoceros, Sunburst Toucan And we get the actual vote count of: Quote Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle Violet Axolotl (1): Mint Heron Discrepancies being the missing vote on Iguana and the missing vote on Gorilla, net result Mauve Crocodile is lynched. To pathwalk: we have three possibilities. We know they can't be E/E/E due to Mauve's Village flip. So the results have to be V/V/V, V/V/E, or V/E/E. A. V/V/V Spoiler I want to handle this first because it's logically possible, but it doesn't really feel right to me. I don't disagree that there's a lot of self-pres right before rollover, and so to some extent, that's NAI, but the vote manip and the pre-rollover chaos just makes me feel there's more than just Villager scrambling. On this view, where would our Elims be? Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axolotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> I don't expect them to be late movers on the main trains. As a late voter in a three-way the Elims have no reason to care about, Amethyst Scorp comes out looking good on this picture, and ex hypothesi, we have stipulated that Gorilla and Iguana must be Village. The vote manip is either Village-directed, or meant to sow chaos from the Elims. If we speculate that at least one of the vote manips was a Riot, then we can anticipate at least one Elim on the Croc-Gorilla-Iguana trains. I think up to three is a reasonable number. Clearly, they wouldn't want to be all-in, so we should look at side-trains as well. Here's one reasonable rule of thumb. Our lead trains were Cham, Iguana, Gorilla, and Croc, at various points through the cycle. In particular, if we think it is V/V/V, then the very late voters have to more or less be by and large Village - Elims have little reason to get invested in which of the trains dominate. Melon Dingo's apathy doesn't look too good either, being around at the end of the cycle but declining to get involved. This could be explained by knowledge this was a V/V/V train, with Flamingo swapping from Axl to Mauve actually looks good in this scenario - if only because Flamingo could likely have stayed safely parked on Axl: Quote Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axolotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2> Flamingo swaps off Axl to Mauve, tying the Crocodile train with the Gorilla train. This comes off as saving Gorilla - but in this scenario, Gorilla is Village. There's no reason for an Elim to get involved in progressing these trains as rollover nears. Another possible place for Elims to be is in the non-voter pool: <Quartz Zebra, Azure Mouse, Amber Vulture, Ivory Dragonfly, Melon Dingo, Opal Lion, Plum Rhinoceros, Sunburst Toucan>. Of these, Ivory mentioned RL, Plum Rhino and Sunburst are inactive, and Opal flipped Village. But I don't want to dwell overly on this as I don't think this is a likely possibility at this juncture. If someone takes it more seriously, then I guess this is a starting point. B. V/E/E Spoiler This in my view is also an outside possibility, though I would judge it as the most unlikely due to the potential for something to go wrong. This requires that the Elim team have at least one vote manip (likely a Rioter or a Mistborn who drew Zinc) though two Soothers is a possibility (remember, we had a three Soother set-up before.) It's not impossible, but it requires an Elim team with strong risk tolerance, an appetite for extreme distancing (the wheels on the bus go round and round...) and nerves of steel, and - as mentioned - vote manipulation, and potentially some luck. Lion, Are You Tripping? Spoiler Let's see. Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> MAIN SUPPOSITION: Gorilla-Iguana E/E What would it take for this to be true? We know the final result was Croc 4 : Gorilla 3 : Iguana 3. For the sake of simplicity, we're not going to postulate inert vote manipulation reactions as though they're quasiparticles. Option A: They had two Soothers. The Soother was able to react at the last minute and Soothe the vote on Gorilla, or they simply expected to do so anyway just in case. Option B: They had one Rioter. The Rioter would've had to target Iguana, shifting a vote from Iguana to Crocodile. But that seems a bit kayana because surely people would go for Iguana next for being saved by a Rioter? We have no other disappearing votes, so if we claim that there is a Rioter, then the Rioter must be on the Croc or Gorilla trains. If we exclude Scorp, this is the score they are looking at prior to vote manip: Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> B1: Rioter on Gorilla train I think it's reasonable for the Evil Rioter to move the vote from the other train, because if two votes disappear from the same train, that's more sus and also might too obvious which train the Rioter is on. We are assuming only one E!Rioter so they would have expected a final result of: Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) = 5 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 3 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 2 If they move from Gorilla as well: Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) = 5 : Ig 4 : Gorilla 3 - 2 (Rioter, vote moved) = 1 Too obvious, and Ig could be endangered if there's vote manip. So this is not viable. After Scorp shifted, they were probably fine with it - still expected 5:3:3. B1-Alpha: For this to work, we'd need something like a Soother acting on the Croc train. This Soother would've been Village and probably wanted to save Croc and was okay with Ig or Gorilla dying. Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) -1 (from Soother) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3: Gorilla 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3 B1-Beta: Other option is a Rioter on the Croc train I think. The moment it's Croc train, the only way I can see to account for the 4 : 3 : 3 is that Croc Rioter cancels out the +1 from the Elim Rioter, and the Elim Riot is successful. So they must have targeted the Elim Rioter's vote, which should have been nullified. So: Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3 I don't think any other option works because we have additional floating votes that require more Soother/vote manip to solve which we are disqualifying. B1-Gamma: Other Rioter on Gorilla train. If so: Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) - 1 (vote moved) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 4 - 2 (Rioter's vote nullified) + 1 (vote moved) = 3 For this to work, I think the only way is to postulate net zero shift on Croc. So the Rioter has to have moved a vote from Croc. B1-Delta: Other Rioter on Ig train Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) - 1 (vote moved) = 4 : Ig 4 - 1 (vote nullified) -1 (vote moved) +1 (vote moved) = 3 : Gorilla 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3 We need net zero on Croc, meaning a vote must be moved off Croc. If Rioter is on the Ig train and we're supposing the Elim must Riot off Ig, then we always have a default -2 on Ig. So the V!Rioter must have moved a vote off Croc to Ig. From their perspective, they must've thought themselves clever - it'd look like a Soothed vote on Croc. B2: Rioter on Iguana train From their perspective: Croc 4 + 1 (from Elim Riot) = 5 : Ig 4 - 1 (Rioter's vote nullified) = 3 : Gorilla 3 - 1 (vote moved) = 2 Same deal as the Iguana train. I don't think the analysis changes significantly in this scenario - you reverse the trains speculated. So I'm not going to fully walk this branch. Let's look briefly at the options to see if they make sense. Alpha - V!Soother acts on Croc train. That's logical: maybe you want to save Croc, and you're okay with the Iguana-Gorilla tie. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 3 : 4 : 3, killing Iguana. Beta - V!Rioter on Croc train. You must target someone on the Gorilla train (who happens to be the Rioter.) That could be moderately logical - you might think Gorilla is V, and so perform a net Soothe - you intend to pull their vote to Croc, which also disguises the fact you Rioted. You just targeted the wrong person. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 4 : 4 : 2 - Ig/Croc tie. Not very logical I think. Less likely. But maybe you want to save Gorilla more. Because it's still a 4 : 4 lead tie so you should be indifferent otherwise. Gamma - V!Rioter on same Gorilla train. This reads the same as the Croc train case. You nullify your vote but you pull a vote off Croc and onto Gorilla. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 3 : 4 : 4 - Ig/Gorilla tie. Seems consistent. Delta - V!Rioter on Iguana train. This also reads the same - net Soothe on Croc. You nullify your vote but you pull a vote off Croc and onto Iguana. If order came in before Scorp, then you're looking at 4 : 4 : 3, and you expect your action to turn it into 3 : 4 : 3 - Ig dies. Seems consistent. The only logical option for a Village vote manip is essentially you Soothe a vote off someone to try to narrow the tie or remove that player from the tie. There's no real contradiction but it's so fiddly. Being fiddly doesn't make a scenario wrong or impossible - in a game with multiple vote manip roles, shenanigans can happen. But that's a lot of moving parts for Elims to rely on for the sake of distancing, so I don't know. It doesn't feel quite right to me at this juncture. Implications: Minimally, potential Elim Rioter or Mistborn on the Iguana and Gorilla trains (more Rioter possibilities than two Soother possibilities and I judge that Soothing doesn't offer sufficient vote control for an Elim team to be so comfortable with extreme distancing.) If Iguana and Gorilla are - ex hypothesi - Evil, then let's look at the trains again: Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> Scorp still comes off looking Village here - agree with Vulture's assessment that Scorp's post doesn't really feel coordinated with probably the ten minutes pre-rollover flurry of switches. (I guess you could push it into extreme distancing with Scorp creating an opportunistic tie, but eh...) I think the correct read is it's probably opportunistic distancing, rather than a deliberate plan to tie Gorilla and Iguana - with Scorp just happening to turn things into a tie. At 4:4:3, Gorilla voting on Iguana would be distancing enough anyway. Ocho looks a bit better in this scenario, having turned the Gorilla train viable. Flamingo looks worse - having pushed the Crocodile train and taken pressure off Gorilla. I have no idea what to think about Falcon's Mauve vote - Ostrich's has been set early in the cycle, but the situation when the Mauve train comes online looks like this: Quote Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon I guess you could argue that the Elims weren't too worried, so I could see Falcon's vote going either way. Certainly, for two Elims to stack on the Crocodile train is aI do think they'd prefer not to whip out vote manip willy-nilly, but an Evil Mistborn wouldn't care. And I think the idea that the extreme distancing was opportunistic makes the most sense. I could see Evil Falcon pressing Mauve, but then Flamingo going onto Mauve as well just seems weird because where's the incentive to bunch up? Mint Heron will later turn the Axl train into a 2 vote train as well, and there's Hyena, so with the number of two-vote trains, where's the pressure to bunch? I feel as though this doesn't make sense. We could say Iguana was forced onto Crocodile but three Elims on a train when they had their choice of CWs doesn't feel right to me. And between Falcon and Flamingo, I think Flamingo looks worse in this scenario for the tie. Anyway, again - logically possible, but I assess it to be an outside possibility. C. V/E/V Spoiler This in my view is the most likely scenario and judging from the discussion thus far, this view is shared by most of the existing players. This leaves us with two sub-options: either Gorilla is Evil, or Iguana is Evil. Alpha: Gorilla is Evil Spoiler Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> Ex hypothesi, Iguana is Village. Last minute vote from Scorp comes off very Village, simpliciter, because it turned a two-way Village tie (on the face of it) to a three-way tie with an Elim finally being endangered. Before that, the count is 4:4:3. It's possible the Elims tried to vote manip to make Gorilla a bit more secure - it's possible that one of the Gorilla voters, for instance, is a Rioter. Rioting a vote from Iguana to Crocodile would - without more vote manip - leave this 5:3:2, making it look potentially like someone was trying to save Iguana and setting Iguana up to take the fall. Flamingo's vote stands out immediately - moving from Axl to Croc ties Croc (Villager) with Gorilla, diluting the pressure. Feel like Vulture and Dingo look a bit better here too because Vulture retracted from Octopus, and Dingo did not intervene when they could have tried to splinter votes off from Gorilla. Scorp looks extremely Village - Scorp brings an Elim into danger when the lynch was otherwise a V/V affair. Alb on the other hand, looks worse because Alb is diluting the vote by creating a V/E/V tie instead of V/E, increasing the odds a Villager dies. Just as Mint Heron looks good here - stacking onto Axl and staying there even as Flamingo evacuates seems a bit disconnected. There's no need for an Elim to occupy that train and if there was, no reason for Flamingo to leave. This is conditional on Flamingo being Evil/looking bad. Ocho, I think, looks better. There's no call to turn the Gorilla train into a three vote train when this endangers Gorilla unnecessarily and Ocho's vote was chilling fine on Cham. Beta: Iguana is Evil Spoiler Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> Ex hypothesi, Iguana is Evil, and Gorilla Village. If Iguana is Evil, then Magenta Albatross starts to look very Village, because at around twenty minutes to rollover, Albatross ties Iguana with Gorilla and Crocodile, effectively introducing an Elim into an otherwise pure Village tie. I feel like Evil Flamingo is possible, but doesn't fully make sense in this picture, because Flamingo gets involved late at one and a half hours to rollover by tying Gorilla with Crocodile, and there's just no reason to do so - Gorilla is Village so Flamingo just exposes themselves to criticism for no particular reason, and their vote was chilling just fine on Axl. Flamingo looks sort of Village on this one in fact. (And Flamingo just posted about suspecting Iguana and now my paranoia that there's bussing going on just kicked into overdrive...) Quote Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axolotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2> I think we could still explain an Evil Flamingo by arguing that Flamingo pushed the Mauve train as a means of trying to get a second primary train that wasn't Coral Swan. I need to go back and look more at Swan-Flamingo interactions if I have the time. Beagle looks a bit more Village if we are assuming Flamingo-Swan are Evil together, because if Beagle were Evil, then Swan would not have been in real danger. I should think this through more but I'm dead tired and it's 7AM and there goes my weekend. II. State of Lion's Reads Spoiler Tired Lion means dead Lion. Still have not slept at all, (blah blah blah player I'm impersonating has a policy on blue font but whatever, tired, done) and of all arguments, Axl brought up the one thing that would have gotten the player I'm impersonating to back off and rethink on Cham, and given my Swan reads et al tend to be dependent on Cham, yeah I'm not confident doing a readslist until later, and that's going to be after rollover. Unfortunate, but true. Am aware that Kas played his worst game in months in LG82 and I am not confident of any read tainted with the same mistakes and I need to relook this with a fresh mind. Village Lite: Penguin, Scorp These are the only reads I feel moderately confident of at the moment. Everything else is going to have to wait. III. Lurkers and Inactives Spoiler As I mentioned, I think there's some incentive for Elims to inhabit certain activity profiles. I don't expect to profile especially active players in this section - I think voting and post analysis should be able to find us those Elims. I want to look here at players who seem to be: a) trying to blend in with the crowd, saying things, contributing, but not necessarily sticking out in discussion, b ) doing the bare minimum (filter-dodging), and c) the inactives. If we do have inactive Elims, they're not our problem. They're the Elim team's problem. There's a filter in this game that runs on the criteria of at least one post every two cycles. So I don't feel there is a point in pursuing inactives. If they don't show up, they either get filter-killed or get replaced by a pinch-hitter. To be clear, I'm not saying any player in these categories must be Elim. I'm creating a player pool within each activity profile. I do think it's worth drawing them into discussion, since without info, it's hard to ID our Elims. And maybe it helps to just be aware of whether we have blind spots about players given the size of this game. C. Inactives: Cold Bodies We only have two true inactives in this game - Sunburst Toucan and Plum Rhinoceros. Both of them have last login time as being one minute before the profile picture changed. This is likely when the GMs were preparing the account. Since they are inactive, there is nothing we can do about them, and so they are irrelevant. B. Filter-Dodgers In my view, these are players who show up and say just enough to dodge the filter. In LG7, Meta had his teammate LeftInch do just that (though granted, they were a minor House faction and therefore not Evil.) I don't want to discount that there are players who see some incentive in filter-dodging, since that helps you avoid scrutiny, and potential Seeker scans. Azure Mouse - One RP post, disengaged. Sapphire Elephant - Talk about catching up seems genuine but then promptly disappears. Ivory Dragonfly* - Passive; one post asking for questions and then ran off (understandable; RL but.) Quartz Zebra* - Disengaged All of these except Quartz Zebra have one post each: Azure Mouse showed up and posted some RP but has been watching the thread but refusing to engage, and I've seen Sapphire Elephant on the thread sometimes. Since anon accounts can't interact with the rest of the forum, IMO last login time is a good proxy for some subforum activity. I think some of the accounts do border inactivity (cf. Ivory DF) - if so, then they cross the border into "Not Our Problem" country. I note Ivory DF seems to have RL stuff, but Ivory DF's post was also very passive - ask me any questions, and Ivory DF has been on since with little follow-up. For that reason, they're in this category. A. Blending In I accept that my elocution "blending in" is a little vague: to populate this category, I looked for players who don't seem very interested in engaging with the thread (seem isolated in their own bubble.) These players may say very little, or avoid anything particularly controversial. They may decline to go near any of the hot trains or debates. They're basically trying to stay under the radar. Melon Dingo - Offers a few thoughts and interacts with some players but doesn't commit and doesn't vote or weigh in on the biggest preoccupations of C1. Onyx Flamingo - Third voter on Crocodile train but otherwise little engagement/interaction with thread. IRL reasons perhaps, but nonetheless. Violet Axolotl - I like his style actually, though our playstyle philosophy diverges. Tried to solicit Coral to join a vote on Gorilla. Technically, Axl was involved in the main train, but beyond that solicitation, Axl hasn't featured too significantly in it. Amethyst Scorpion* - Very borderline case due to involvement in last minute tie and comments with low but consistent frequency on cycle claims but easy to lose track of them. Oxblood Beagle* - Same deal as Scorpion, more or less. Has one engaged and extensive post N1 (thank you! =) ) but has otherwise generally been low frequency but consistent. Ocho - Another borderline case. Engaged with N1 discussion, showed up in pockets D1 and D2. IRL reasons as mentioned. In my view, Mint Heron and Fuchsia Ostrich have spoken up more in D2 (even if a single post) and don't merit inclusion here considering thread interaction, but can be safely included if one so wishes. Amber Vulture is borderline on D1, but not so in D2. Given the amount of heat on Magenta Albatross, I think it's safe to say he isn't blending in very well right now. IV. Do Not Read This Spoiler I mean it. Please do not read this. I just added this here for my own personal reference because I'm tired and I want an easy place to find what I think when I'm not tired. This is raw working and a lot of me thinking aloud so it's not reliable and it's very long. I use the thread as my own personal storage area, yes. Deal with it. Spoiler Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus Cham opens up the voting on Iguana for overreliance on distro. I feel there’s no need to telegraph a vote if you are seeking to open discussion, but Cham does Cham. This soon inaugurates the most popular* train of the first half of D1 as Scarlet Octopus votes Cham for distro reasons and trying to shut down discussion. Because I am a hipster, I think both Ocho and Cham are being overly-optimistic here and this is a pointless brawl. In retrospect, - place to stash vote? Salmon Meerkat fancies himself the Tyrian Falls watchman and asks to see Sunburst Toucan’s ID, presumably because he imagines Sunburst Toucan to potentially be on some sort of criminal watchlist. Spoiler alert: Toucan but Mirkan’t wait for him because he never shows. Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> As always, Meerkat’s vote barely had time to cool down before it subsequently shifts to Cham after catching up on the thread because he feels Cham’s vote is performative. How do you say potato again? One minute apart, Mauve Crocodile decides to add pressure to Cham as well, giving us the lead train for the first half of D1. Penguin is the next voter, going on Axl. Probably a poke vote, as I don’t recall seeing Axl at this point in the timeline, while Charcoal Hyena votes Amethyst Scorpion for definitive language on the Elim team composition. [@ Hyena – interested in this one here as a number of players were making definitive statements on distro early on. What’s up? Later: Ah okay, looks like a callout to read reactions. Still flagging this because of the targeting but it may be nothing.] Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (0): Chartreuse Penguin<1> Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Hyena’s post is soon rewarded as Penguin goes onto Hyena for bad gut and the sense that Hyena is being too wishywashy in reads list. The state of the votes also further alters as Meerkat begins to feel unease about the lack of response to the Cham train and doesn’t like Vulture lurking silently in the thread because vultures swoop and swooping is bad. Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (0): Chartreuse Penguin<1> Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Amber Vulture (2): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan Coral Swan soon backs Meerkat up on Vulture. This is an interesting development because this is the first time a tie is generated between our lead Cham train and a second train. Ostensibly a poke vote, but serves to take a bit of the pressure off Cham. Need to relook later on due to the prominent D1 clash between Swan and Cham that occupied part of the cycle. In terms of timing, this is rather early in the cycle (pre-halfway mark), so while I make a note of it, I don’t think it is screamingly significant. Axl does show up and votes Turquoise Gorilla for trying to slip under the radar. Worth keeping an eye on this because Axl will prove to be a Gorilla end-voter despite being active through the end of the cycle. Amber Vulture swoops in to vote on Scarlet Octopus for being alarmist on mentioning lylo early. Yes and no – I have a credence of 0.95 in Vulture’s identity so he might not be aware that Village has been taken unawares by lylo in the last couple games, but also Vulture is correct that every cycle should ideally be played as though it were lylo anyway (though this often does not come to pass and I could probably say something profound about expectations versus reality and how we try to reach the ideal but fail but I shall refrain.) Vulture is not wrong it could be performative, but eh. No strong feelings. Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (0): Chartreuse Penguin<1> Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Amber Vulture (1): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Meerkat also moves from Vulture back to Cham – largely because Meerkat apparently has developed sentimentality after all these years and hesitates to heartlessly murder Vulture with a shrekking and partly because Meerkat wanted to see if anything would change by making Cham the lead train, given how Cham has been stable in the lead/lead-tie so far. Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (0): Chartreuse Penguin<1> Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2> Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Swan goes from Vulture onto Dingo for slipping under the radar: posting and not saying particularly much. As far as I can tell, Dingo’s sole post was two lines on distro thoughts agreeing that LG74 was not going to be a good predictor of this game’s distro and that something unexpected would not be strange, so I can see why Swan might go onto Dingo. Bracketing the issue with Swan and Hyena for now because it comes up later anyway. If you think Cham is Evil though, this might be a point of note. On the one hand, Swan going onto Dingo looks like splinter train tactics: create a side train and try to funnel villagers there to split the vote and take heat off Cham or potentially save Cham. But I don’t actually think Cham is Evil (more on this later) – but supposing Cham is Evil and Swan is Evil (since we are speculating this is splinter train), the better response is to go onto Hyena. It’s less suspicious (but I’ve said as much) since Swan already said they were suspicious of Hyena. So if we suppose it’s splinter train tactics, we’re more or less committed to a C-S-H team. But C-S clash enough later I don’t think that’s the correct read of the situation, though extreme bussing has happened before. Beagle doesn’t like that Swan isn’t going for their top suspicion, which, fair enough. Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Onyx Flamingo goes onto Axl for being too bloodthirsty because cosmic irony is alive and well. I don’t really know how I feel about that but I got player id vibes off that interaction on Axl’s end but that’s neither here nor there. Flagging Hyena’s note that Ocho has queried Cham extensively. This interaction should be re-read along with Ocho’s original post because we know Mauve’s flip now, and Ocho was first voter on Cham and I can’t remember where Ocho subsequently ended up but undoubtedly soon will. Fuchsia Ostrich votes for Mauve because Ostrich has a negative gut read on Mauve which is fair, but I’m wary of players who aren’t interested in trying to explicate why their gut is triggering. Disliking the vote on Chameleon is…interesting. What about the vote isn’t great? And if you dislike the vote on Chameleon, it seems to imply you have a more positive view of Cham, but Ostrich is non-committal. If someone you think is Elim is voting for a player, and you don’t think it’s a distancing vote, creating yet another train seems a bit chill when you think the existing lead train is a mislynch. I don’t recall Ostrich’s vote moving either – disengagement + vote stability + Villager target means I’m flagging this one as well. RP scan indicates Ostrich might’ve intended it as a poke vote – “we aren’t sure if he’s a bad guy yet”, but Ostrich left the vote there, so presumably Ostrich became more sure later on. Ostrich also claims to think Ocho is good which is interesting to me because of the earlier Ocho flag. Saffron Iguana (1): Pearl Chameleon Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich Meerkat comes back in and goes off Cham—still not much movement around a Cham train. I stand by this read when I look at the cycle again. From the point I go onto Cham to put Cham solidly in the lead: Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich I agree with Scorp that the Elims could be employing splinter train tactics. Vote manipulation still requires votes, therefore Elims reluctant to act overtly on the assumption they have vote manipulation must still look for or create a friendly voting landscape. While Soothers are less at the mercy of needing votes, I think an Elim team would still need to blend in even if they intended to use Soothing – from our perspective, this would look remarkably like splinter train tactics. From the point I got onto the Cham train to try to take the temperature of the train to the time I left it, there have been four votes, all on separate trains. The cycle still feels low-temperature at this point. Axl, Beagle, and Ostrich have been very ‘park and go’ on their trains at this point and there’s no real active attempt to solicit votes or buy-in. It feels more participatory than anything. My gut is that it’s more likely there’s no interest in the Cham train and the Elims are parking elsewhere safely but if you think Cham is Evil, then it might be worth looking among <Violet Axlotl, Coral Swan, Oxblood Beagle, Amber Vulture and Fuchsia Ostrich> for potential splinter trains at this juncture. Meerkat votes for Gorilla, joining Axl, because I prefer to foster ties early in cycles to see where players will go when given options. Are they interested in breaking a tie? Swinging it? Are they indifferent to it? Gorilla fits in my profile of perfunctory participation and I’m not at this point interested in most of the other extant tie options so Gorilla it is. Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1> Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5> Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2> Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich Never let it be said Meerkat doesn’t like to keep his voting options open. Interesting move at this point: Cham goes from Iguana onto Coral Swan. This puts Cham-Gorilla-Swan into a three way tie and is a very counterintuitive with slightly under nine hours to go to rollover. It’s not irredeemably late but it seems to endanger two Elims. Trains sometimes have a bad habit of taking off, especially when you might not have enough time to discourage Villagers. Postulating that the Elims had vote manipulation and figured someone would break the tie is still strange because vote manipulation is risky and also it’s better not to tip their hand if they don’t have to. Cham going on Swan could be distancing but I feel I have moderate credence that Cham/Swan not E/E. Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1> Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (0): Chartreuse Penguin<2> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5> Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2> Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich Penguin goes onto Cham at this point. Penguin will pull the vote off eventually so in my view, Penguin/Cham not E/E is not a warranted conclusion to draw from this. But it’s possible that Penguin and Swan could be E/E, or Penguin/Swan/Gorilla or some permutation thereof (just from the raw votes – I’m not sure how I feel about this possibility. Later: yeah, no.) Penguin’s vote breaks the Cham-Gorilla-Swan tie. There’s no real statement of intent—Penguin does say in a PM she wanted a three way, and Cham challenges this vote, and Penguin says it was to test Cham’s reaction. I’m a bit /shrug about this because Cham has been the leading vote train for what, up to this point? Almost since the get-go. If there was a reaction, there should have been one forever ago. Maybe the rationale is that closer to rollover, this is more likely to elicit a reaction, which is not wrong, but it feels a bit noncommittal, especially since Penguin pulls off and will later return to Hyena when there is appetite for Hyena. Question at that point for Penguin: how did you find Cham’s reaction? Was it satisfactory? What did you expect to get from it? Penguin just seems nonchalant despite having gotten an immediate reaction from Cham. While I’m all for confounding the expectation that a poke vote should immediately be removed on response, I feel like there’s a decent amount of non-investment in Cham’s response here. If Cham’s response wasn’t satisfactory, why not push harder or try to elicit what you are looking for? After a PM conversation with Penguin, Meerkat agrees with Penguin that Hyena’s list is a bit performative, and wants to see if it’s possible to poke more out of Hyena (admittedly optimistic that Hyena might see this in time) and goes onto Hyena. Swan votes for Cham again, saying they suspected Cham after Cham’s recent posts. Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1> Pearl Chameleon (4): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2> Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich I think this is an interesting moment because it puts the Cham train four votes in the lead. Suddenly the Cham train is picking up speed again! There are two key moves to keep in mind: Meerkat moves onto Hyena, breaking the secondary tie between Gorilla and Swan. And Swan goes onto Cham, which might have an element of self-pres besides Swan’s stated motivations – a two vote margin keeps Swan a bit safer from if vote manipulation happens on Cham. Swan does have a bit of a defensive posture though, “Let's be clear, this has nothing to do with the discussion I had with Chameleon about me holding my ground. I was happy to hold my ground in the safety of Dingo, but I'm happier on a suspect I have clearer reasoning for.” I’m not going to read into this because I feel Meerkat’s motives were pure ( ) – but Swan seems to think that they find Cham to be reaching. Unclear whether this is a genuine difference of opinion between Villagers or motivated reasoning. Shortly after, Penguin evacuates back to Charcoal Hyena. Swan/Penguin unlikely E/E – their vote movements are opposite of each other with a net zero change. I’m not sure how much I like the elastic band nature of Penguin’s vote, and the fact that there’s net zero change makes me wonder if it’s E Penguin fleeing to a safe side-train in anticipation of V Chameleon’s flip. But suppose Swan/Penguin are unlikely E/E. If so, I seem moderately committed to thinking Swan is V Swan because it’s just downright odd that Elim Swan would go onto Cham like that, knowing it’s a bad train, and with nine hours to go, especially when Swan wasn’t endangered. Swan had no way of knowing Penguin would back off, and self-pres votes usually tend to be accepted more easily so it feels like an excessive move from E!Swan. But I don’t know if V!Swan feels right to me either. Conditional V, maybe. Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1> Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2> Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich Axl continues to give me some light…player id vibes. I think it’s the stab-happiness. Probably the stab-happiness. Unfortunately, Mauve adds a bit of confusion here because he accidentally ascribes a vote from Falcon to him and it looks to me as though Falcon was just colour-coding reads. I don’t think it significantly changes things as Gorilla elects to vote on Swan to tie the Cham train off. This is the first (in my view) point at which someone seems to act to save Cham. While I’m more convinced by V Cham, note that if we think Cham is Evil, Gorilla’s move should be really alarming here! Because since we have some reason to think Cham/Swan not E/E, if we think Cham is Evil, Gorilla is tying an Elim’s train with a Villager’s train. That’s always noteworthy. Notice that Gorilla seems committed to securing a lynch – Gorilla cites only Crocodile, Cham, Hyena, and Swan as options and ultimately goes for Swan. Gorilla/Swan not E/E I guess. On the assumption I’m now lightly committed to Conditional V Swan (see above) – players who create ties usually are invested in one outcome or another, and often receive side-eyes based on the outcome of the lynch. E!Gorilla on this assumption would know that both Swan and Cham are V so it’s a bit odd as E!Gorilla should by right be indifferent to this lynch. Perhaps E!Gorilla was counting on vote manip or trying to tie Swan to himself, but I don’t know if I feel that’s quite right. I think this does make apparent to me that it might be better to mark Gorilla as the lynchpin and then seek to generate E/V relations from there instead of starting from Cham. I also don’t like doing too long a chain of inferences as there’s a chance something has gone wrong the further you try to project. But I don’t want to introduce doubt as this point in time and I do feel some pressure to at least get a first pass analysis done, so I’m going to bracket this for now and move on. Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1> Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich h/t to Heron for catching this for me – Coral pulls off Cham, and goes onto Gorilla, breaking the tie and endangering themselves. Tempted to do a light Village read for this, and Swan definitely swims a bit better in my estimation, but not significantly so as Swan still retains time to do a self-pres option and self-pres votes are not usually looked askance at. So I think on balance it could go either way. Then, Ocho shows up and swims off Cham. Still says will go back to Cham if there are Cham voters and if Ocho can make it back for rollover. I’m flagging this in light of Ocho’s persistence on Cham and that it’s worth soliciting Ocho’s current Cham views now but with apologies to Ocho, this has become more comprehensible – Ocho sees a 2 vote train and bails. Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich Possible Swan-Ocho connection I suppose. Ocho tying the vote takes some of the pressure off Swan by diluting it and going for Gorilla. And it certainly fits with Ocho’s motivations – null- on Swan and presumable suspicion (what though?) on Gorilla. That being said, Swan’s move was self-inflicted so Ocho taking the pressure off Swan is odd – another net-zero move. But perhaps Ocho was compelled because Swan was trying to get Village cred so an E/E read still feels possible but in my current estimation, that’s a paranoia spiral too far. I agree at this point with Mauve’s assessment – that it feels like an organic move off Cham for the most part, rather than a concerted defence of Cham. Falcon comes in with a Mauve vote. Flag this moment as the point the Mauve train becomes a live option – there’s a bit of oddity with Falcon claiming a PM that doesn’t exist but I have a 0.9 confidence read in Falcon’s player ID and that’s—I wish I wouldn’t sound so blasé when saying this but that’s normal and so not something I’d consider AI for Falcon. Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon Scorp has an interesting point about making yourself more high profile in a game with a Tyrian Seeker being more village. Yes, sort of – Claincy Smokers exist for a reason, of course that’s a risk, but Tyrian games are just as prone to high profile players being Evil, I think, so if Scorp is Elim, I do wonder if this is an attempt to keep people on lurkers or CC. The last paragraph on Scorp’s post when voting for Cham confuses me - @ Scorp, what were you trying to say/think when you voted for Cham? I see a lot of ‘could be E/E’ but I’m not clear on your thoughts on Cham or the leading train at that time. If Scorp is E, possible preparatory train for vote manipulation (this possibility entails either E Gorilla or E Swan.) Cham switches from Swan to Iguana, citing a better read on Swan. Cham-Gorilla probably not E/E, I think. Slightly over four hours to rollover, and this move endangers Gorilla. It does save Swan so I suppose if you have a scenario in which Cham/Swan are E/E, Cham likely planned to come back on later on and swap votes. I feel as though this is an extreme distancing/extreme bussing kind of scenario and I don’t rate it very highly in my estimations right now, but as we know from LG74, the Wheels on the Bus Go Round and Round, and sometimes that’s just how players roll. Crocodile – we now know flipped Village – likes the Iguana train better than Gorilla or Swan, and goes for Iguana. Note Zebra has been mooted as a target, and Falcon asks about Zebra deserving to die. @Falcon – what’s in your mind at this point in time? Vulture pulls off Ocho, so: Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (2): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (2): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon If Gorilla is E, slightly better read of Vulture – not difficult for him to try to splinter votes; should be moderately possible to open up/join other trains to carry off votes or facilitate vote manip. If Gorilla is V—eh. More on this in a bit when I comment on Dingo. New side-train from Heron, with slightly under three hours to rollover – joins Flamingo on Axl. If Gorilla is E, this is another potential splinter train, with potential E!Heron. Heron takes issue with Axl’s attitude citing randomness of D1 lynch—yes and no. In retrospect, when I look at this interaction, I dislike Axl’s attitude, and realise it is pointing in a slightly different direction than I had first read it as. I read Axl as saying that we proceed from default guilt, which is a position I generally agree with. If a player doesn’t give you reason to think they’re village, then you shouldn’t be invested in keeping them alive. Which – yes and no. Obviously you’d prefer a suspect to be lynched, where possible. At the same time, knowing that the result may often be no better than random doesn’t mean that the Village shouldn’t try, and while the results may be no better than random, the votes are reason/motivation guided, so we want that info out there. I do think it means we can be a bit more pragmatic about D1 voting but the attitude there just seems off. At the same time, I wonder if it’s so dgaf that an Elim is not likely to espouse that in thread. Lean negative but not strongly so. …Looking at the original interaction in context again, I feel that it’s more of a player attitude difference—Cham seems to distinguish between reasons for suspicion and distrust, and I’m not interested in doing a full exegesis of Cham’s and Axl’s position, just that on the whole, it reminds me of the clash between Joe and someone…was it me? About whether you start by finding innocent players or start by finding guilty players. I don’t think there’s much to say here, but I can see why Heron also didn’t like Axl’s attitude, so I’m just going to move on. Noting that Dingo shows up to comment but declines to vote. Bad trains? Feels like easier for Elim to find a safe sidetrain at this juncture, and I recall Dingo gets called out by Scorp N1 for being there around rollover but not voting, to which Dingo says he hadn’t been looking at the candidates, was indifferent, and wanted to see vote manip. Ok, but then I have no reason to shift my Dingo read either, and I’m not sure I like the refusal to commit. I feel like my reads of Vulture and Dingo have to be consistent, or moderately so. If refusal to commit doesn’t allow me to give Dingo a good read, then Vulture shouldn’t get one either. If Gorilla is E, refusal to commit looks good for both Vulture and Dingo. If V!Gorilla, refusal to commit looks bad for both Vulture and Dingo. I’m hesitant on that line of reasoning because I feel it would be easy for Vulture to just vote and blend in, and same for Dingo, so I suppose if Gorilla is V, this should make me feel a bit better about Vulture and Dingo. In theory I should probably feel a bit better anyway because they dgaf. Part of me is wondering if my high player ID credence on Vulture here is the problem—I haven’t the faintest idea who Dingo is and I’m fairly certain I know who Vulture is, and this is making me more reluctant to credit Vulture than I am Dingo. Perhaps recklessly but in the spirit of Anon Games, I’m going to let this go and apply the same reasoning to Vulture’s behaviour as Dingo’s since I don’t see a relevant contextual difference here. I’m reluctant to apathy-clear so this should induce null+ perhaps. Another key juncture here: Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2> Flamingo swaps from Axl to Mauve, citing the earlier vote as a poke vote, and that she dislikes Mauve calling for a Zebra train. Which…yes and no. I definitely didn’t like the solicitation and it spiked my Mauve paranoia spiral into overdrive because it felt a lot like Mauve was shopping for a train that would take rather than something he really felt. It’s odd for me to be suspicious of Flamingo for a move that is, ultimately, more or less along the same thoughts I’d had, but I guess I am because this is a really key juncture where Flamingo causes a tie between Gorilla and Crocodile with around an hour and a half to go to rollover, and this turns Flamingo’s vote into a lethal vote on a Villager after vote manip. There’s immediate train dilution suspicions: was Flamingo trying to dilute the Gorilla train? And if so, who was Flamingo trying to save? If Gorilla is E, this should be a point of concern, suggestive of E Flamingo. (Note that I am not thinking about vote manipulation possibilities in earnest just yet.) Possible as well that if E Flamingo’s original vote on Axl was distancing, Flamingo didn’t want Axl train to potentially take off, and moved onto Crocodile instead. …And I realise that my post there was an awful mess and it pains me to read it now so I probably should have made an effort to drop my usual playstyle to be more comprehensible kudos to Vulture for trying to go through it anyway. Albatross swoops in late on Iguana, and seems to mention informational voting. Which is interesting in light of Albatross’s claim to be a returning player – informational voting used to be a player paradigm that isn’t so popular now. @ Albatross, who were your suspicions and who would you have voted on if not Iguana? Albatross makes it a three-way, which looks even more like vote dilution to me, and makes Penguin’s comments about Albatross being widely-read village even more dubious. Saffron Iguana (3): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2> I think it’s clear that Albatross coming in like this without much signalling on Iguana looks potentially opportunistic, especially with the Iguana train taking off late. If you think Iguana is Evil, then Albatross looks pretty Evil too for swooping in to save Iguana. This is giving me slightly higher credence in a Village Coinshot as well—it looks to me as though the Coinshot might have suspected Albatross of being an Evil Rioter, or just really disliked the move onto Iguana. If we expect the later vote manip to be Rioting rather than Soothing, then poorly-explained votes that track main trains could be Riots. (There are some outside possibilities but I think they are paranoia and I’m not going to indulge the whyspers of Wyrm.) I know I’ve flagged it before and Falcon has replied before but – pushback. I didn’t feel pushback either, which to me implies two possibilities: splinter train or no Elim was under threat. Iguana votes on Albatross, presumably for the swoop. Saffron Iguana (3): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2> Magenta Albatross (1): Saffron Iguana Odd choice, but Iguana retains the option to self-pres before the close. Three minutes later, because we’re getting down to the wire here, Gorilla votes for Iguana, to self-pres and because Gorilla doesn’t want their top village read lynched. Iguana asking Gorilla for a compromise and voting for Crocodile is weird because Gorilla just stated that they don’t want their top village read lynched either. Guess Iguana likes to push his luck. But here comes the self-pres. I assume the compromise is Iguana asking for Gorilla to retract from Iguana because Iguana has just pulled off a self-pres tie. Because it’s a self-pres tie, it’s a bit difficult to read—Iguana would be motivated to do that whether Villager or Elim. Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> Exactly at the same time, Scorpion posts and says they dislike the last minute Iguana push and goes for Gorilla instead. Agree with Vulture - doesn't seem very connected to most of the shenanigans or vote manip. Light V? That's it from me, I think. Not going to be around for rollover, so best effort basis. I need to and would like to vote but my brain is shutting down and I feel like I'm not in the best position to handle this rollover now because my head is murdering me and it's hard to think in this state. Everyone has a limit, I've hit mine. Sorry guys :/ I'm just going to crash. Tired Lion is tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said: gaiz- ig hasn't voted think its parasitic on my count & i registered saff on pearl when shld be other way round. I was just putting one together because of the mishaps in the others and started to question my counting... Swan (0) - Falcon Iguana (5) - Falcon, Chameleon, Hyena, Beagle, Iguana Mouse (0) - Meerkat Ostrich (0) - Beagle Albatross (2) - Penguin, Vulture, Gorilla Gorilla (0) - Swan Chameleon (1) - Axolotl Octopus (1) - Meerkat, Beagle, Penguin Flamingo (3) - Heron, Ostrich, Swan Falcon (0) - Albatross EDIT: The bold is just to be clear who has more than 1 vote at this point. Edited January 9, 2022 by Oxblood Beagle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turquoise Gorilla Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said: Beta: Iguana is Evil Reveal hidden contents Quote Saffron Iguana (4): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2>, Magenta Albatross, Turquoise Gorilla<2> Pearl Chameleon (0): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion<1> Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (4): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>, Amethyst Scorpion<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla<1> Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (4): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2>, Saffron Iguana<2> Magenta Albatross (0): Saffron Iguana<1> Ex hypothesi, Iguana is Evil, and Gorilla Village. If Iguana is Evil, then Magenta Albatross starts to look very Village, because at around twenty minutes to rollover, Albatross ties Iguana with Gorilla and Crocodile, effectively introducing an Elim into an otherwise pure Village tie. I feel like Evil Flamingo is possible, but doesn't fully make sense in this picture, because Flamingo gets involved late at one and a half hours to rollover by tying Gorilla with Crocodile, and there's just no reason to do so - Gorilla is Village so Flamingo just exposes themselves to criticism for no particular reason, and their vote was chilling just fine on Axl. Flamingo looks sort of Village on this one in fact. (And Flamingo just posted about suspecting Iguana and now my paranoia that there's bussing going on just kicked into overdrive...) Quote Saffron Iguana (2): Pearl Chameleon<1>, Pearl Chameleon<3>, Mauve Crocodile<2> Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile<1>, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>, Amethyst Scorpion Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1> Violet Axolotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo<1>, Mint Heron Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4> Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1> Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2> Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2> Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon<2>, Turquoise Gorilla Scarlet Octopus (0): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo<2> I think we could still explain an Evil Flamingo by arguing that Flamingo pushed the Mauve train as a means of trying to get a second primary train that wasn't Coral Swan. I need to go back and look more at Swan-Flamingo interactions if I have the time. Beagle looks a bit more Village if we are assuming Flamingo-Swan are Evil together, because if Beagle were Evil, then Swan would not have been in real danger. I should think this through more but I'm dead tired and it's 7AM and there goes my weekend. ^should be in C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emerald Falcon Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Saffron Iguana said: Falcon probably isn’t Swan’s teammate, but they voted off Mauve, made an odd declaration about the coinshot, and somebody talkative has to be evil, right I suppose we'll start here- First of all, I was a pretty prominent vote on Mauve, if I do say so myself. Not only that but the second person I have been pushing for the majority of Day 1 and today has been you. I'd think you'd have more to say on my other than "coinshot coinshot talkative" regardless of any backreading. Magenta, what was the goal of voting on me? >> Saffron Iguana(4): Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo > Onyx Flamingo(3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan > Magenta Albatross(3): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, Emerald Falcon Pearl Chameleon(1): Violet Axolotl Scarlet Octopus(1): Chartreuse Penguin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chartreuse Penguin said: I wanna talk about Octopus Penguin, you belong in the miner leagues, because you're great at speculation. To clarify, I have not yet voted, especially not for myself as Beagle mistakenly noted. I don't feel comfortable killing Albatross today because it feels like that wagon is tainted by what might be an overreaction/mis-read to the faking newness thing, and I feel bad about that regardless of my suspicions. I'd prefer to self-pres onto Octopus, but I'll do Flamingo if it comes to it. Edited January 9, 2022 by Saffron Iguana Said alb not Beagle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: Magenta, what was the goal of voting on me? >> Saffron Iguana(4): Pearl Chameleon, Charcoal Hyena, Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo > Onyx Flamingo(3): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich, Coral Swan > Magenta Albatross(3): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, Emerald Falcon Pearl Chameleon(1): Violet Axolotl Scarlet Octopus(1): Chartreuse Penguin I just really disliked the claim you made about the coinshot. I couldn't think of a good reason for someone to post that, because if it's true and you're village it kind of puts a target on your back for the elims, so it doesn't make sense to me for that to be the case. If it's false and you're village it still puts a target on your back, and I'm not sure what you gain from it because unless someone was 100% certain about your alignment I don't see them PMing you and saying "Hey I'm the coinshot the other person lied". And if you're elim I don't think it matters if it's true or not because then whatever motive you have is obviously evil. So basically the only way I could see someone posting that is because they knew they were safe from the elims because they were an elim. And an elim saying that has the obvious defense of saying "If I was an elim why would I say such a thing as to draw attention to myself". Those are the things that I have a problem with. I voted for you because it felt really fishy(as in wrong and weird, not that you were phishing) but no one else really seemed to care so I just took my vote off in preparation for putting it onto a more realistic shot at exe-ing an elim. Edit: Meerkat and I had some PM discussion where they claimed they are pretty sure they have ID'd you and that claim fits your apparent playstyle so they felt it was NAI and I have felt them to be pretty Village so far like a lot of the other players so I accepted it. Edited January 9, 2022 by Magenta Albatross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said: especially not for myself as Beagle mistakenly noted. Aww. That would certainly spice things up, though. EDIT: Hit send too early. I'm down to switch back to Octo (or Swan), as they're definitely higher on my suspicion list than you Edited January 9, 2022 by Oxblood Beagle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Charcoal Hyena said: Azure Mouse: As Salmon has pointed out, Azure's been caught lurking several times and not participated much (only posted once and it was NAI). @Azure Mouse, you're not sleeping with your phone browser open, are you? We'd love to hear your thoughts, since it appears that you're around. So..... Kind of. I literally slept the whole day IRL. (Kinda ironic with my first post) I’m a bit overwhelmed with everything going on. Ummmm.... I’ve gone through and read everything at least twice. Am I processing it? Not really. I honestly don’t have any convincing opinions on anyone. I feel like people are over-reading the whole thing with albatross. As for iguana, I’m confused why people are voting for them. I just read through and couldn’t pinpoint anything specific. Anyone care to make a short summary of why they are voting for iguana? I feel bad about not voting, but I also would feel bad about voting for anyone without a semi-decent reason. Anyone have any fairy wings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Charcoal Hyena said: I'm curious if @Coral Swan's opinion of Mint Heron has changed after Mint's most recent post, since it moved them up in my estimation and they had Mint as "will help kill" at the start of the day. Also, for the four people I named in the parenthesis above, can you explain their placements? Sorry if I missed your thoughts on them, but they're in my neutral zone and would like your insight, which in turn could help me figure you out better. Do you mean this one? With that post in mind I comfortably read Heron as Null+. (I don't know if 'moved up' for you means more village or more elim, lol). Beagle is a Do Not Kill for two reasons; first, I give them a point for being the first to call me out for voting a Null D1, as opposed to all the people who just followed that. I also liked their long post from the start of the cycle. I haven't figured out what I feel about their latest vote, and that's fine since the Do Not Kill was just for today. Scorpion's placement there is mainly that I don't see what we'd get out of their flip at the moment, and that I gut read them as village. Axl I also pretty strongly read as village (I could find a post or two of theirs of why but don't really have that kind of time.) Elephant's single post felt villagery to me and there obviously isn't anything we could go off of after their flip. Again, that tier list wasn't a reads list though reads did (obviously) impact it. The paragraph under the spoiler box of you explaining my question makes sense, thanks. Don't agree, but thanks anyway 1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I don't like waiting until the last minute to vote, so I'm going to go ahead and place one on Saffron Iguana, since they're my top sus. I would love to hear more reasoning behind the Gorilla suspicion, though. @Coral Swan I definitely have explained it and I don't particularly want to find and link the posts where I did. They're the posts I voted Gorilla both cycles and the ones surrounding those, pages 2-3 this turn and idk D1, I'm sure you can find it. They're there. Have you said why exactly you suspect Iguana? 27 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: Edit: Meerkat and I had some PM discussion where they claimed they are pretty sure they have ID'd you and that claim fits your apparent playstyle so they felt it was NAI and I have felt them to be pretty Village so far like a lot of the other players so I accepted it. ^I can second this lol 3 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: I'm down to switch back to Octo (or Swan), as they're definitely higher on my suspicion list than you How do you feel about the Flamingo/Alb trains? Praise the Ja! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, Coral Swan said: How do you feel about the Flamingo/Alb trains? Not great about either of them. I'd like to give Flamingo a little more time to actually interact, and I'm not seeing the same suspicions. And for Albatross, I strongly disagree with that particular train. It seems to stem from them being a thug, which I have lengthy feelings about exing someone just because they have a survival role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 i shouldn't be here but Iguana 57 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said: ^should be in C ty Gorilla doesn't seem to be in Elim meta. & I am not committed to D1 V/V/V. This is the best I can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: I definitely have explained it and I don't particularly want to find and link the posts where I did. They're the posts I voted Gorilla both cycles and the ones surrounding those, pages 2-3 this turn and idk D1, I'm sure you can find it. They're there. Have you said why exactly you suspect Iguana? I suspect Iguana based on their tone D1 and the vote manip on them, mainly. I echo a lot of what Hyena said earlier! And sorry, I'll go back and find those! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I suspect Iguana based on their tone D1 and the vote manip on them, mainly. I echo a lot of what Hyena said earlier! And sorry, I'll go back and find those! Alright. Any particular distinction for you of the manip between Gorilla and Iguana? No worries. Praise the Ja! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said: I’m currently happy with how the votes are playing out, given my suspicion of Iguana. However, I’d also like to reiterate my dislike of the votes around Pearl last cycle. In the last LG, in addition to other times in the past, elims have ignored large numbers of votes early in D1 on one of their teammates (or even added to them) because such trains tend to die following a response like Meerkat’s (and generally a villager is the one bringing the objection if the target is elim). I’m short on time, but I did look at Pearl’s posts and nothing stuck out to me as particularly villagery. So I’ll request that anyone feeling like their vote is currently being wasted consider switching onto Pearl. Where did your suspicion of Iguana come from? I've heard from other people why, but you voted for Gorilla D1 and don't sound confident about one of Gorilla and Iguana having to be evil. When there's a tie between two people one day and then the next day one of those people gets five votes and the other has none, the elims are more likely on the former. If Turquoise Gorilla was village the elims could have tried to get them exed again, but the main trains today have been Iguana, Flamingo, and Albatross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turquoise Gorilla Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: When there's a tie between two people one day and then the next day one of those people gets five votes and the other has none, the elims are more likely on the former. If Turquoise Gorilla was village the elims could have tried to get them exed again, but the main trains today have been Iguana, Flamingo, and Albatross. This reasoning has... serious problems. Amethyst Scorpion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 9, 2022 Report Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said: This reasoning has... serious problems. Amethyst Scorpion Huh. So that's what that looks like. Is that vote a makeup desk, because it looks like a vanity. For the record, I kinda like Scorp's logic. Anyway, I was hoping to keep this secret, but y'all seem really hung up on the vote manipulation D1. I am a Soother and I removed Chameleon's vote on me yesterday. I think Gorilla might be one too, since they reacted to the vote manipulation on them the same way I did (ignore it) then how I considered doing it (general paranoid speculation). But that'd be a weird coincidence if so. Also, thanks for the PM apology when you thought I was the Coinshot, Albatross, but I'm really not. I'd have hidden my suspicions about you better last Night if I was. Octopus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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