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Elbereth

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Everything posted by Elbereth

  1. Elbereth
    (I retracted from Bard.)
  2. Elbereth
    Bah. I suppose that's true. But now that you've mentioned it, we'll be looking for it. At least one person will know that they had a knife and were passing it to whoever they kill. It won't result in immediate lynching, perhaps, but that's certainly reason enough for high suspicion (and potentially shade inspection, at least). That's true. But if we don't have the same people without items, then whoever on the eliminator team is currently without an item would just be the one to do the kill. Which is completely useless. Thing is, we can't count on the eliminators not passing items. Of course they will! The first priority for them is to appear to be villagers. Silver dust and knives are really useful, yes. But not as useful as appearing cleared. The point of this plan isn't to make eliminators reveal by not passing items - there aren't enough items that we know of to have any chance of success in forcing them to not pass in order to kill, and in that scenario they probably wouldn't kill. It's to make sure a set amount of people (same number as there are items) are not using the kill. Which we can't do if someone different is passing every night. I'm... really not sure why you claimed the knife. I mean, it is useful information, I suppose. But I highly recommend that no one else reveal what specific items they're passing. What the item is doesn't matter for the purposes of the plan. And in all probability a villager will know what that item is within a couple of cycles as it passes hands, anyway. Right. It's entirely possible that I won't be on again until after turnover except a very brief period of time seven hours from now or so. Sorry I can't help coordinate more. I have no items, so I won't be passing, obviously. I still strongly advise that players with items pass them to the next player on the list with an item. Not just whoever the next person is. Ripple, you never answered that I'm aware - where does passing items fall in the order of actions?
  3. Elbereth
    Oh, yes. He made it for QF15, I think? That's where it is in my notes, anyway. I just kept it. (It's also in his sig, but I can't figure out how to access the code for that, annoyingly.)I should've said "soft-cleared", probably... but still. I think they're more trustworthy than anyone else in this game right now. Ooh. Now that is an excellent question. Why Phatt, indeed... Well, one reason would be first-day team chaos. That's always an option. It's decided at random, at the last minute, etc etc. If it's not that? My only thought would be that one of the eliminators is particularly interested in going after inactives. Which is very possible, although unfortunately it doesn't throw much light on who the team could be - because Aman has a history of that. And he's dead. We don't know that he was around in the doc, although it's a bit unlikely, but if anyone were going to pick Phatt for death it'd be him, I think. Which isn't very helpful. EDIT: Oh, about Knives. In my opinion, the advantage to having more items is worth the risk of them falling into the hands of the eliminators. They can maybe get a knife if they're lucky, but they still can't use it if they're also passing items.
  4. Elbereth
    >> I never read edits... Downside to being on as soon as I see that someone's posted is that I never see the edits. Bard, although that vote will go back on if I don't find anything else more suspicious, because while that was a nice explanation the fact remains that you're voting on someone I consider at least soft-cleared. I'm still watching you. Who are you passing your item to, by the way? That's kind of an important part of announcing that you're passing one. Speaking of which, I gave my item to Lopen and received no items. The problem with doing things this way is that the people who don't have items are always going to be shifting, and it's very easy for the eliminators to slip through the cracks. We need a circle of passing items, not a line. Right now, five people claim to have items. I propose that those five people pass their items to the next person in the list who has an item. (Joe to Winter, Winter to Lopen, etc., then DC to Joe.) Hopefully we can add a few more people with items, so that we have a fairly solid group of people who can't have made the kill. Five is a bit small for my liking.
  5. Elbereth
    Conq voted after Zas? Might want to go read the thread again...
  6. Elbereth
    Okay, I'm here. And finally taking the time away from my book to post. Good thing this is the last of the series. Reading these has not been good for my activity levels... Looking at last cycle: Four people voted on Aman - Joe, Sart, Zas, Con. I do not consider Joe cleared of being an eliminator. Poking an inactive teammate is a perfectly valid tactic, and he couldn't very well retract after people started piling on without looking very suspicious when Aman died (since by the time he posted again there'd already been two more votes on Aman). I do consider Sart and Zas fairly cleared. The votes were within three minutes of each other, so Zas would have had to be very gutsy indeed to bus a teammate so immediately. Particularly when putting another vote on someone else could have tied it or gotten Aman completely out of the lynch, potentially. Conq is interesting. I also consider him soft cleared, but there is the possibility that he is also an eliminator. I doubt it, but if so, that would provide a reason for the eliminators to bus Aman - better an active eliminator than an inactive. That's the only way Sart/Zas could be eliminators. I will also note that there are no protection roles in this game. That means we know with some certainty where the next kills will go. Unfortunately. Seriously? You suspect Zas for lynching an eliminator. He didn't just hop onto a lynch that was already set in stone: he broke the tie. Bard. Zas and Sart are currently the most cleared players in the game, in my opinion. Trying to make us distrust them is the first thing an eliminator would do. Well... you could just go back and read it yourself, you know...
  7. Elbereth
    o.O Um... Well, I was just about to come in here and be irritated at a last minute bandwagon on someone who hasn't even logged on in a couple of days, but... I guess not. Excellent! Family are just leaving now, so I'll be able to get some actual thoughts down in a few minutes.
  8. Elbereth
    I have an item and am passing it to Lopen.
  9. Elbereth
    Very quickly, since I have to go momentarily and might not be on for the rest of the cycle - I think the plan is still viable. If the plan goes off without a hitch, we know that one of the people who claimed not to have an item made the kill. Which still reduces the pool. And yes, I'm talking about every item. In my opinion, the benefits of having a rather reduced pool of suspects outweighs the benefit of the eliminators getting a kill or silver dust. Particularly when at least one person will know that that person has that item. So I still think we should do it, but it's up to the thread. I have family coming today, so I might be on for tiny moments, but I also have to divide those snatches of time with LG22 as well, so... don't expect to see much from me for the rest of the cycle.
  10. Elbereth
    How does that prove anything about you being a Darkfriend? It proves that you're not Fain, yes, because someone was corrupted that night. It says nothing about you being a Darkfriend, that I can think of. Maybe I'm missing something? It would've shown the same result had you been Detained or a Dreamwalker or taken no action or a self-targeting action. So you didn't successfully make the eliminator kill. But then, no one did, since there wasn't a successful eliminator kill. (Although, even if you are an eliminator, picking you of all people to make the eliminator kill N1? Fairly sure that wouldn't happen anyway.) Um... I was sure of your innocence in MR12. That's a bit different than having few suspicions. Which I did, in that game. In fact, I just went through the thread, and unless I was suspicious of anyone before page ten (which I seriously doubt), I voiced exactly zero suspicions in thread. (I did voice two slight suspicions in our PM together. Both based on you being innocent... >.<) You detained Elodin. Well. There goes that. And since I've been told that Lopen was detained by the other village Whitecloak (whoever detained Jaime last night), that means we have no idea who Gunshy detained N1. That's not very helpful. It's possible he didn't detain anyone because of his computer problems. No way of knowing that, though. Also, I would recommend that you keep detaining, Sheep. Detaining people nets us a fair amount of information (as you can see from the amount of discussion we've had centered around it), and there's no use in not using your power.
  11. Elbereth
    Right, have some thoughts. Some from before turnover that I never got around to responding to (because they're mostly irrelevant), some from afterward. If we mourned her every time she died, we'd never stop. Bard, regarding your point about the LG21 doc being spoiled - remember that was a combined spec/dead doc. It's a lot easier to keep spoilers out of pure spectator docs when no one has information from when they were alive. Truth. My suspicion wasn't really because of the end of that post. It was being paranoid of me, but more than that... Like I said before. That post (and your next few posts on the page after that one, too) doesn't strike me as evil, precisely. But it's something I see evil potential in, just as I did with Elodin. Some people I trust because I can't think of a reason for them to say something as an eliminator. These posts, I can conceive either quite easily, and that makes me suspicious. Sorry if that's a bit vague. If you want more detail, ask, and I'll try to provide it in the morning, when I'm not tired since I've been up since 6:45 a.m. and it's after midnight now. Seriously? Why would you say such a thing? You realize you just made yourself the #1 target for conversion tonight, don't you? Maybe not now that I've pointed it out, but even then, that's a maybe. Enough info might actually be useful enough to Fain that he'd take that risk even if you were under high suspicion of corruption. Don't say things like that. You're just doing Fain's work for him. I agree here. It's definitely wrong to just assume that one of the remaining Dreamwalkers is evil, just because of balance reasons, because that's not always right. However. It's not wrong, in my opinion, that there's a higher probability of one of you being evil, because three Dreamwalkers is a tad unlikely for the village to have. It's not impossible - but that's an assumption too, in the opposite direction. And the thing is, Bard isn't proposing we lynch one of you just to make sure. That'd be dumb. He's proposing we try to figure out which of you are innocent (or if both of you are), without killing either of you. Which makes perfect sense to me, at least. In my view, the only reason Elodin would be detained (as a Darkfriend) would be that 1) he's not a Dreamwalker, and 2) the Darkfriends don't have a Channeler. If they did, they'd almost certainly just protect him instead of detaining him. As for the reasoning, he was a strongly suggested Wolfbrother kill that night and under a fair amount of suspicion in the day as well. While being detained would mean he couldn't make an action, it would also mean he wouldn't be killed. And in most cases, if there were a Darkfriend kill, this would make him more trusted, not less. It's just that the Darkfriends got unlucky for some reason. That's the theory, anyway. Is it particularly likely? Not really. Actually, wait. The only way for it to work would be the Darkfriends not having a Channeler to protect him. And if they don't have a Channeler, they can't have used Mask of Mirrors on him to fake his Dreamwalkerness. So... correct me if I'm wrong, but I no longer see a way for him to be a Darkfriend. I agree on the first point. I disagree that you would have had to pull a WGG. There are multiple other reasons the kill could have failed, and you being targeted is definitely not the only one nor particularly more likely than others (in my opinion). Forgoing the trust is a bigger point, but I'm still not completely convinced. Look where it got you, after all - mostly trusted, out of a lynch at the critical moment, and not having to interact with people for a while and potentially get even more suspicion, given that you'd been picking up heat. That said. I'm not reading you as any worse than neutral at this point. So I'm fully prepared to accept that all three Dreamwalkers are village, unlikely as that seems. But I'm nowhere near certain about that, and will in all probability remain uncertain. I won't be claiming to you, at least. And I do still think Bard is village because of that defense. I haven't really read anything (that I remember at the moment, anyway) which made me suspect him at all (until his latest post, which felt a little aggressive to me, but that's very slight), and that post read as very genuine to me. So I stand by that. I don't think Bard's an eliminator. Bard - Dreamwalkers are not impossible to verify, unless they're actually Dreamwalkers. So I'm not sure why claiming one without being one would be that great of an idea. It worked for Meta, obviously, but he'll probably just get caught tonight if he isn't a Dreamwalker, so that's not buying much time. And we know he's not Fain, so if he were evil I'd say it'd be better for his teammates to bus him and be cleared rather than buying him an extra 24 hours to live. ('Course, they could do the same thing I thought of about Elodin and target him with Mask of Mirrors. If they have a Channeler. And that Channeler hasn't already used that weave. And even then it wouldn't be very secure because we can target him tomorrow night too if necessary.) I think there was something else I wanted to say, but I'm not sure what... Anyway. I'll be on in the morning tomorrow, but after about five hours before turnover I shouldn't be available at all. So if you have anything you want me to respond to, say it before then. EDIT: I remembered! Aman, you never answered my question about what you meant when you said I was the "most connected" of the players you'd yet to eliminate from being Fain. I can think of a couple of different meanings you could have intended there, and I'm curious which one you meant.
  12. Elbereth
    I am here, and ready to play! So. Let's see. I've thought of at least one way to clear people. If you know who passes you an item, and you can't pass an item and kill in the same turn, then anyone who passes an item is automatically cleared. So... it'd take a lot of coordination, but I definitely think it'd be worth it. Everyone pass their item to the next person down the player list, or something along those lines. Then everyone who passed an item is basically cleared of being the killer (unless there were two eliminators next to each other, which is possible, so we'd have to do it multiple times in different orders to be sure), giving us a much narrower search pool. Anyone see any obvious flaws? (Also, Ripple may want to nix this. Not sure how game-breaking it is, since it depends on the number of items in play, but it does seem a bit strong.) Hey, this isn't so bad. Imagine what it was like for Wilson and Seonid seeing every single PM in LG21. Including Shard Zero. And don't worry. It gets worse. I had 80 PMs for MR13. And I can't imagine how many Wilson had for LG18, given that PMs were free but recreated every turn. Lopen created, what, fifty by himself? (Could have been more... I can't figure out in which PM you told me that.)
  13. Elbereth
    Did you expect anything else? Update on activity: People I did not know were coming over tonight came. I won't be able to post again for several hours in all likelihood. Sorry.
  14. Elbereth
    And that's not even counting seventeen GM PMs. I know the feeling. It's a mess for a while.
  15. Elbereth
  16. Elbereth
    PM question has already been clarified - yes, PMs are open. I'm assuming Traitors have a doc, but I'm not sure.
  17. Elbereth
    Well. This is going to be an interesting game. I can tell already. May not be around for the first 24 hours or so of this game as much, since I want to focus on LG22 while I have PMs, plus I have family coming tomorrow. So we'll see how that goes. If I don't do RP by the third cycle or so, someone yell at me in a PM to RP, please? I need the extra little push to RP, but I do want to this game. (Even though I picked such an awkward name as Crepuscula, for goodness' sake.) I'll have actual thoughts on the game once I finish my book in a couple of hours. Don't expect anything until then. It's a good book. Maill can vouch for that.
  18. Elbereth
    Although I doubt that actually exists, I can see your point there. Regarding your second point... Hmm. I think it really depends on the individual player here. In most cases, it's going to be truthful. 90% of the time, at least. The other 10% is a really desperate eliminator (although with the meta as it is right now, most eliminators would have given up long since) and trolling villagers. Phatt's actually one of the more likely ones to do such a thing, of the few who would. He claimed a nonexistent secret role last game and very nearly got some eliminators neatly tricked into claiming because of it. And he's a troll. In general, though, people wouldn't lie in this kind of situation.
  19. Elbereth
    Your motivations for what? Not claiming? That's the only game-relevant thing you've said this game. Which is why I wanted to leave you for the Wolfbrother so we didn't have to waste a lynch on you. Too late now, I guess.
  20. Elbereth
    What? I mean, if he's lying and not an eliminator (possible although I think it's improbable), what does that tell us? And if he is an eliminator, why does his lying tell us more than his eliminator-ness does?
  21. Elbereth
    The unfortunate thing about last-minute bandwagons is that they tell us nothing about the people who can't be on during them. They're really nice for looking at the alignment of everyone who is on, though. Note - I'll be active in PMs tonight, but probably not tomorrow, unfortunately. I have family coming. These Night cycles are really falling at terrible times for me... It's too late, anyway. Four minutes after turnover. No retractions now. Yup, what Lopen said.
  22. Elbereth
    You know what would have been a better way to not die? Actually talking about the game. Sorry.
  23. Elbereth
    At least my ninja'ing of others is still going strong, I see.
  24. Elbereth
    Seonid - some circumstantial reasons (retracted from Sart here and gently defended Gunsy here). Also hasn't brought up suspicions any more than I have, and yet he hasn't caught any flak for it. Phatt - as already stated, hasn't said anything that's not meta-discussion. I'm not precisely suspicious of him, but I'm also very happy to lynch him, and if no one else is willing to go along with these other candidates, that's where my vote's going. In fact, Phatt. Lomion. Sorry, Aman, but I'm really not interested in dying just because I was the person with the most votes left after everyone took theirs off of Meta. That'd be a stupid reason to die. Rubiks - Feels wishy-washy. But then, voted on Gunshy. So... this is my weakest evil read of the four. Hael - as mentioned, that post strikes me as off. And it's not so much that I think he's evil but that I think the potential is there. I can equally easily interpret his posts from a village or eliminator perspective. And posting, because eight minutes left in the cycle is a bit tight. EDIT: This cycle is pressuring me. I even forgot to refresh to check for new posts... And as a result got ninja'd. Twice. >>
  25. Elbereth
    Okay. Just looking at the 20 players alive who aren't me, who do I trust? In order from most to least trusted: Straw, Meta, Joe/Nyali, Aman, Araris, Stink, HS, Lopen, Elodin, Jaime. I'm probably wrong about at least one of those people, but to a greater or lesser extent I do trust all of them, and my reasoning for each is relatively solid. So that's ten people I won't be voting for. Those are my initial reads. Looking at everyone else's posts... I trust Winter, very slightly. (By the way, ask me for my reasoning on any of these people later and I'd be happy to explain. I just want to get this out as fast as I can at the moment.) And Bard and Bugsy. Maill I'm getting neutral on, and same with Sheep. Con... I've no idea. Hmm. I could see Hael as evil. (This post strikes me as off.) Same with Seonid and Rubiks. Phatt I'd certainly be willing to lynch. Yup, that's everyone. More thoughts on the four players at the bottom to come momentarily. Bard - Two dreamwalkers is reasonable, in my opinion. One Dreamwalker, particularly someone as high profile as Meta, is going to get knocked out fast a lot of the time. But even without that, I regard two Dreamwalkers as a perfectly reasonable distribution. We had two good ones, even, in AG2. And in... LG3? Definitely LG2, but one of those was Unsnapped for a while... anyway. Posting- Storms. Lopen has a good point. Three is a lot. I don't know what to think now.
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