Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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Well, at least Tani (speaking of whom, it's bad form to change your username mid-game) has posted some. I think Ash and maybe Gears said they have IRL stuff going on, so I'll vote on Books, mostly because I don't want the thread to get any more dead than it is. At this point, I think we should just go full-blown Contribution Crusade until either all the quiet people are dead, or they've started speaking up/voting. Honestly, the dead doc is probably significantly more active than this place. Maybe if things don't pick up I'll join Striker and Quinn, in the hopes of getting a bit more discussion.
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Maybe the issue is with how confident you sound. But I got the impression last cycle that you wanted to grinch me today regardless of how Dannex flipped. Similar thing from Quinn. I'm not sure that makes sense given that my understanding of your suspicion of me is that it's related to the manner I voted on the counter-Dannex wagon D1. Also, like I said above, I think you're tunneling, both in the sense that you are focusing on me, and that you don't really have any other suspicions (at least not that you've mentioned this cycle). Last, as sort of a general comment directed at everyone, we need to get some more votes out in the first 24 hours than we currently have. Like, does anyone have an opinion different from mine about people voting on Whysper being suspicious? Does anyone think Whysper is elim (which is, as Quinn mentioned, a distinct possibility)? Anyone just have a random bad gut feeling about someone (that hopefully isn't me)?
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My top suspicions are currently Tani and one of Striker/Quinn, but Striker a decent bit more than Quinn. I'm pretty sure Archer wouldn't have voted for me this cycle, so killing him makes me easier to get rid of, but since he wasn't actively defending me, I think elims would have be comfortable with the kill. So it makes sense for an elim to lead the votes on me this cycle. Quinn is on my radar for the cheerfulness thing, whereas I've gotten the impression that Striker is just trying to guide the village into a whole bunch of misgrinches (if you're village, then I sort of apologize, but not really). So my lack of a vote the first 100 minutes of the cycle is suspicious? I'll assume, like Quinn before you, that you mean something else. I'm pretty sure you've dug from one tunnel into another if you're somehow village. Assuming the Dannex/Whysper was v/v (since I don't have much of a read on Whysper), it seems likely that an elim would have voted on Whysper at least at some point, and I find Tani's vote the most suspicious of the all, followed by Quinn's. The vote on Tani is also so I can feel a little less bad about contradicting myself about voting out active players early (although with this size of game, C3 isn't really early, per se).
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I was sort of worried we would end up in a situation like we did with Mailliw like last game, where a bunch of people were fixated on him but never were able to actually pull off a grinch. I think last cycle was basically a disaster, but come the end, killing Dannex was at least a good way to reset everything.
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Ummm, yeah, you got me. I think the largest difference between this game and LG74 is how much time I spent/am spending behind the scenes. I definitely agree with everything I said in LG74 about this tpoic, although I would also say that I overstated my opinions because a teammate was on the line, and maybe because it gave me a chance to throw shade on you, a potentially major village threat. I've been a bit more reactive this game, which has made it easier to lose sight of playing strategically past the first cycle. But I guess I owe Illwei an apology, not for killing her, but for being a hypocrite as I did it . I think Tani might be my greatest suspect at this point. I'm not sure I like the vote on Whysper or the timing of the switch to Dannex. I also feel like Quinn has been too... happy? Not sure what I've been getting there, or if it is AI at all, but it's something I've noticed. Well, I actually have a quadruple A in my full username. Maybe I'm actually the only elim in the game since I have all the A-power .
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Because my vote didn't matter by that point. People were super fixated on Dannex and there was nothing I could do about it. Grinching Whysper instead wouldn't help, since everyone would still want to grinch Dannex regardless.
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I sort of feel like I can't say anything at this point that will change what happens, but since I don't have any particular reason to think Dannex is village, the only reason to do that would be to promote discussion. But with 35 minutes left, that seems pointless.
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That probably wasn't helpful to include in the post. I was trying to get across the idea that Dannex isn't really a village read, just not a priority target for me. While I acknowledge that my reasoning for voting on Illwei was weak, you are misinterpreting me here. I was looking at how Illwei interacted with certain villagers in LG74 and thought I could see a parallel to her interaction with me. Obviously I was wrong (or at least the connection I saw was not AI), but that's what I had D1 and I don't really regret it. Yeah, the kill profile here pretty much fits me like a glove. But maybe I just play SE in the most perfectly optimal way and someone else has caught onto my strategy?
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It was really just the village read on me, I think. The behavior I'm thinking of is Illwei sort of bludgeoning people with her playstyle D1 to deflect suspicion off herself. I saw the village read on me as somewhat similar; a way to try and pocket me with no justification other than being kinda chaotic. I think I'm decently against a Dannex grinch this cycle. I'd vote on Dannex over Archer for sure, but probably not most other options. The point being that I think the kill last night suggests we need to broaden our scope, and focusing Dannex doesn't help with that.
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Pretty solid village right now. I think it's an unnecessary risk for an elim to oppose a D1 grinch. I could be wrong here, but Tani is not a priority target for sure. I'd also like to say that I've done a complete about face and think Archer is most definitely village as well. I can't for the life of me find what he said that changed my mind, but it made Night!Me think that he isn't elim (found it. the question about money). The question thing this cycle seems a little contrived, but it is a good way to spark discussion, which is ultimately helpful to us. This bring to mind a certain LG where a certain foolish person wrote a post about TUO and then voted on you . But I was village that game, so maybe village!Striker thinks like village!Araris. I stand by my vote on Illwei last cycle, which while apparently misguided, was still a D1 vote, and as it turns out I'm glad I didn't stay on Archer. It was also part of the Plan(TM), and thus was determined prior to the start of the game, so it follows that the vote cannot be AI to begin with. Respond to comments in thread. Check. Proceed to next step of plan. The elim kill does seems to show that elims are happy with the thread's status. That suggests to me that we should broaden the POE, and I'm thinking of Gears, Ash, and TJ right now. TJ gave elim reads on Dannex and Books (while voting for Randby). Gears casually defended me. Nothing much from Ash at all (for ILR reasons, it seems). These players all seem to fit with the kill profile while also lying a bit lower than they otherwise might. My vote is on TJ for now, but I'd like to hear from all of the above three players. I got ninja'd by Gears while writing this, but that doesn't change much. Nothing in his post that changes my mind, the whole thing is rather non-commmital (congrats on the math contest though! IRL me approves ). Next step, wait.
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I would strongly disagree. Not wanting to kill person A necessarily means that you want to kill person B, if either Person A or Person B must die. I think the issue here is that you think D1 votes would normally have "actual reasoning" attached, when in fact they are almost entirely random . If they aren't random, then the elims were participating (since villagers can't really do much better than random), so the village wins out eventually in that case.
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Gotcha. You're generally pretty sensible, so I figured there was a good explanation.
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This was not a poke vote. I explicitly stated it was a Stab Vote, and gave reasoning for it a bit later. Also, unless I'm misunderstanding you, there are a lot more than 4 votes that have been paced this cycle. Did you only list the ones that gave reasons?
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I think I agree with Quinn about moving from Archer to Illwei. I'm getting LG74 vibes from her.
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Is this still the case when the game rules ensure that someone is guaranteed to be grinched? I think if the rules permit, a case can be made for doing normal D1 voting and then everyone cancelling at the last second so nobody actually dies. The village could still learn something from that. But surely the voting process itself forces the elims to engage with the game when they could otherwise hide. I don’t think you’re elim for having this opinion, but then how, if we somehow don’t grinch anyone D1, is the D2 vote any different? We certainly can’t solve this game mechanically, and elim kills don’t give much info. My personal opinion is that if someone must die anyways, it’s almost a bit cowardly to be unwilling to get your hands dirty. We’re playing a game about murder here. Might as well get involved from the get go. And folks ‘round here are guilty until proven innocent.
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Since D1 voting is basically random, our best bet is to apply pressure on multiple people to force the elims to do things that are AI (at least in retrospect after we've killed them). It could be the case that a couple of the players currently being voted on are elims, which is making their team less willing to get involved with things right now. I certainly wouldn't mind if we got more votes on Illwei, TUO, and Randby (I actually am a bit concerned about Illwei right now, might switch my vote to her).
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This wasn't a claim, it was a reminder. I signed up as Ruthar, figuring that the name might actually match in-game identity.
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I'm Ruthar (who apparently is a Diagramist in this alternate universe). My plan does not allow for my vote to be moved onto Ashbringer at this moment, nor does it permit an explanation at this point in time. However, it does indicate that I should give some justification for my vote on you. Essentially, your vote seemed very safe. However, you are targeting a demographic that could very easily not contain any elims.
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Step 1 of my plan that I wrote before we started the game: Stab(TM) Vote Archer.
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Long Game 74: You Want It Darker
Araris Valerian replied to Kasimir's topic in Sanderson Elimination
@Kasimir, gonna miss my fellow member of the PM Safety Old Grouch Club. I'll make sure to do double the grouching in your absence. In all seriousness, I greatly appreciate your contributions to our community and wish you the best of luck in getting on top of the other stuff in your life. -
I never said I was immune to scrutiny. Just everything I do. Welcome! Looking forward to murdering playing with you!
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Long Game 74: You Want It Darker
Araris Valerian replied to Kasimir's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Or perhaps the number of nested spoiler boxes . -
Hmm. I guess I'll sign up as Ruthar. Probably going to make things confusing, but at least I'll have a chance of having the same name as... myself. I've also formulated a plan for this game that I will follow regardless of alignment. Since I did it all before the start of the game, it must be NAI, and therefore all of my actions this game are entirely immune to scrutiny. Some or all of this comment may have been made in jest, I take no responsibility for it being taken the wrong way.
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Long Game 74: You Want It Darker
Araris Valerian replied to Kasimir's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I can definitely say that going through all the posts in the thread for analysis was pretty rough. I didn't actually need to, since I was elim, but village!me might have gone to the bother. But I don't think you are the one at fault here, and I'm happy to have someone posting as much as you are. There's no rule that says villagers have to read the backlog before placing a vote. I would even say that part of the strategy of the game is finding an analysis method that fits your available time commitment. If the thread is long or you are busy, maybe it's time to try something new. Perhaps there's a danger in scaring off newer players from participating when the threads get so long, but I think in general there is a rather large learning curve for SE. The people who stick around for the long run figure things out, eventually. Perhaps part of the rules committee's job could be to assign a "complexity rating" to games. We'd have to talk out what all that should include/mean, but it could definitely help. I also wouldn't say that LG/MR/QF are bad descriptors. Just translate them as Likely/Maybe/ Almost Never play, and they work great! (this is actually my heuristic). Really the 3 factors that determine whether I play a game are the format, the complexity, and my personal busyness. The format being in the list suggests that it's still a valuable label, at least to me. -
Long Game 74: You Want It Darker
Araris Valerian replied to Kasimir's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I assume this is what you were referring to?
