Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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There is a difference between an item being given to a thief (i.e., stolen), and given to The Thief (taken by STINK). So I by no means think Sart is fallible .
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The confusion here might be that some of what Sart puts in our PMs is a bit tongue-in-cheek.
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I think you’ve held back from being very involved. Playing too safe is suspicious in and of itself, since villagers that are doing their best to find the elims tend to make mistakes and do things that draw suspicion.
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Some people are suspicious of Striker, and have given reasons why. Striker has given his refutation of those reasons. And Kas wants the thread to be more than 3 people tunneling on each other.
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Oh, yeah. I’ve been taking TJ for granted. We had 1 defense last night.
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What do you mean by this? I'm pretty sure Kas and I, and maybe Gears, are the only players that have mentioned any suspicion of you. And I'm pretty sure the only way elim!me would have voted for you early last cycle over TUO is if you were also elim. The TUO bus would have been way too easy to pass up. Kas has seemed quite village to me, especially with the vote on Connie, and I'm leaning village on Gears, despite my earlier concerns, since I doubt TUO would have gone for a bus like that. So I actually think no elims are voting for you, which makes me a bit more comfortable with where things stand.
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I'm pretty sure Ventyl is village. Every game I pay with him he sets off all my elim radar things, and then he's village. I also get the impression he's not paying tons of attention this game. I can't think of another explanation for trying to throw shade on the only confirmed villager during the Night. And my vote is going on Striker. My gut reaction to his post against Gears last cycle was that he was elim. His reads list made me back off, but I think since Gears is much more likely to be village at this point, I'm more comfortable with sticking to my gut. I also agree with Kas that TUO would have been more likely to make that vote following a teammate (and if I'm wrong, supsicious!Kas will be after me).
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You realize Archer is the non-Rithmatist, right? Since there has been no Shadowblaze yet, he's village.
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They said that when I bussed Szeth in my last elim game . I'd guess that Gears is actually village at this point, and I'm hoping my initial read on Striker last turn was actually correct.
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Could you explain why Striker/Gears being v/v necessitates TUO being elim? And why does TUO being village require one of Gears/Striker to be elim?
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Okay, I agree with basically all of Striker’s reads (barring Ash and maybe Ventyl), which is enough for me to retract my vote for now. I’d rather vote out TUO as things stand. But honestly, I’m sort of comfortable with any of TUO, Striker, or Gears this cycle.
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My vote on Striker over Gears comes from my strong opinion that elims often prioritize hiding over voting out key villagers. Gears's move doesn't help him hide, and stinks of overeager villager. Striker and TUO made "safer" votes that feel like predatory elims. On a related note, votes and suspicions in the early game tend to be ill-informed. In particular, my D1 vote on Gears had no justification at all, and we talked about my current mindset, which I think you can agree was somewhat wishy-washy prior to the events of today, which I think carry more weight than the N1 kill profile thing.
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I'll claim, so go ahead and send me a list of all the players that aren't elims.
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I sort of agree with Kas here. Gears is suspicious for the reasons you gave, but TUO jumping on Gears feels very opportunistic. While I agree that Gears probably could have reacted better, I also think there is some justification for a strong reaction to your dishonesty (which is noticeable, if not obvious, in retrospect). In fact, I think your reaction to Gears is also a bit opportunistic. I think elim!Gears would have thought out things more. I’ll stick my vote on Striker for now, and think Striker/TUO could be e/e.
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I can vouch for the 2 defense.
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Hmm, you’re right. I guess I typed up the post, but never actually sent it. I have a bad habit of doing that. I can confirm the camp defense was 6 last night.
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I claimed during the day (or at least I confirmed the defense of 6), but nobody seemed to notice.
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Yeah, that's where I stand right now.
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The lack of a N1 kill is a possibility, one that has strategic viability with this set of rules. So I think it is worth considering when making reads.
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I guess part of what I'm saying is that Gears hasn't done much of anything (suspicious or not). I find that suspicious in itself. What about Gears fitting the profile of no N1 kill?
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I do not have the Warding specialization.
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Lotus voted on Archer, a confirmed villager. Basically, I don't think she was paying attention, which I generally read as village.
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I'm trying to make sense of the votes we've had so far. People that stand out are: @Lotus, who voted on Archer post-claim @Shard of Reading, who has only voted once on Lotus, and didn't mention the above (which I would think deserves a mention) @StrikerEZ, who voted Matrim D1, but then on Illwei D2 @Gears and @The Unknown Order, who haven't yet voted. Gears in particular stands out, since he isn't new @Burnt Spaghetti, who voted to save Matrim D1 but not D2 I'd be curious to hear people's thoughts on and explanations of these things. My initial impression is that Lotus is probably village, since that would be a major slip for an elim. Similar with Reading, I would think an elim would mention the thing about Lotus. I'm not sure about Striker. He is on my village reads list, and I trusted him with my LoW last night, but that doesn't mean a whole lot. I'm actually pretty suspicious of Gears at this point. I'm pretty sure the lack of a N1 kill fits his profile, and the lack of votes isn't helping the village. Burnt is also sort of suspicious, for similar reasons to Matrim, but she isn't on my village list. I'm not sure she fits the no N1 kill profile (I'm assuming this was intentional), but the inconsistent stance toward Matrim is weird. New player ordering:
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Not really. We have a couple claimed already. I would say the only less important thing in the supply right now is the Bribe.
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This seems like a good idea. I think I killed Striker in the last iteration of this game to hide my own lack of a Line of Warding, and this plan removes that option from the elims.
