Araris Valerian
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Okay, so Mist probably isn’t elim. Or at least, Mist almost certainly couldn’t have converted Archer with the Shadowblaze. For Archer to be an elim, someone needed to steal the Shadowblaze on N6 when Ash died and then pass it to Archer during D7 so that it wouldn’t mess with defense last night. We have Mist as using a Map during N6, so unless we can figure out how an elim would have gotten an extra map (possible, but I judge unlikely), this couldn’t have happened. It seems that Burnt could have done so, however. And the action economy works out if Burnt and Archer are elims. Burnt grabs Chalk, Archer sends in the kill and agrees with what Mist said. Independent of all that, Books can only be an elim if Lotus had Warding+. All D5 actions are accounted for, so to counteract a -1 defense instead of a +1, the elims would need 2 extra defense. Then during N5 Lotus could add 2 defense and Books could send in the kill. I guess another scenario here is that Gears is elim (we don’t have a N5 action claim from him to my knowledge), and they just did 2 LoW and the NK. But I don’t really see Gears as being an elim. It’s just technically possible. So, the possible teams seem to be: Mist/Archer Burnt/Archer Books Books/Gears Of these, I think solo Books and Burnt/Archer are the two most probable, since Mist requires an extra Map, and Gears’s actions don’t seem to fit too strongly with him being elim.
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The Shadowblaze effect stays regardless of if it were moved around. I think the only possible way for the Shadowblaze to have not died with Ash is for someone to have given it to Archer during D7. The only players that could have done that are Mist and Burnt.
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I’m proposing that Archer got it sometime between the death of Ash and last night. Edit: Except it seems like Mist used a Map on N6 when the Shadowblaze would have needed to have been stolen. Bother. Edit2: So Books could have sent in the kill, or Archer could have, or Mist could have with Archer covering. I think everything else checks out.
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We're all idiots. Kas died with 2 Chalk. If you count his actions, it adds to 1 remaining, but he drew 2 lines after only taking Chalk once. Thus Kas started with Chalk, and died with 2. This means that Burnt didn't send in the kill, and Devotary is being honest. I think the only possibility here is Mist and Archer are elims. One of them sent the kill, and the other grabbed acid (probably Mist, to be consistent with their story). This works because Mist had the action available to steal the Shadowblaze from Ash. Archer could sort of be an elim by himself, but there is no way that the elims started with just 3. This also explains why Archer is going after me. Easy double misgrinch.
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But when I said that, I had no idea of what Burnt was going to do. elim!me would have to hope that someone else was going to grab chalk (and regular chalk, rather than the rainbow stuff), in order to frame somebody.
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Yeah, Kas had a single Chalk at most. So for the amount of Chalk in the supply to remain constant, you must be lying, and hence responsible for the murder of Duncan.
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So, I took Chalk during the night, which means for the numbers to add up, Burnt can't have. I'm pretty sure that makes Burnt and Devotary our last two forgotten.
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I definitely went for the gun, and I guess nobody except myself and Lotus did.
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Oh yeah, I remember my original reason for voting Devotary. It was the vote tally when Connie flipped elim. I have a hard time believing that zero elims voted that day. Although it’s becoming a bit clear that the elim team is maintaining a pretty low profile in the thread, so it could be possible. Okay, based on the action claims, Lotus has contributed 1 defense and has a whole bunch of missing actions. Books has a lot of missing actions, but is soft village because of the Shadowblaze. Burnt has claimed to have failed several actions, and defended only once. Random Bystander had defended once, and has forgotten or not claimed many actions. Mist has yet to contribute to camp defense, but only has 1 unaccounted for action. Devotary has claimed 5 failed actions, didn’t claim for last night. Also has yet to defend. I guess I’d give a soft village pass to Mist from this, in combination with her frustrated reaction to my prodding last cycle. In regards to the elim team profile, I think that the two cycles where we grinched elims strongly suggest a very low thread (and possibly low action) presence for their team. More active elims could almost certainly have averted the Connie train. Also, the lack of a concerted push against me following Striker’s village flip reads the same to me. I think Lotus, Burnt, and Devotary all fit this profile pretty well, and am fine with a grinch on any of them. But probably prefer in the order I gave.
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@Mist @Random Bystander @Devotary of Spontaneity @Lotus @Flyingbooks @Burnt Spaghetti @Gears Y'all have anything to say? We are over halfway through the cycle, and things are pretty dead here. There are 7 of you, so more of you are village than elim, and right now it would be rather trivial for the elims to control the vote. I'm strongly of the opinion that with this few players left we need everyone to be voting every cycle, otherwise we can't get any information and the last few elims can hide until GriLo. In the interests of prompting some discussion, I'll move my vote from Devotary to Burnt, at least until I hear from more people.
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Mid-Range Game 48: The Southern Wind
Araris Valerian replied to Straw's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Yeah, this isn't really a new issue. And I think as a villager, this (in the bold) is something we should always keep in mind, from a strategic perspective. Just because a vocal player has said some suspicious things, it could just be an accumulation of clueless villager nonsense. I think it's fair to say that there are usually just as many lower activity elims as their are ones with higher activity levels, so by aggressively choosing to grinch players who are contributing less to them game, you don't hurt your team's odds of winning. You also leave the vocal elims for later when there is a higher chance to catch a slip-up, and the vocal villagers are still able to contribute their verbose thoughts. On a similar note, kind of related to something I said about playstyles, I think players should try to commit to a consistent level of activity during game signups. Something like: "I plan to make an analysis post each cycle covering every post in the game" or "I plan to list my top 2 suspicions once every second cycle and maybe vote once during the game but write 2 pages of RP every 6 hours" or thereabouts. This would primarily be a commitment to yourself, to not let things slip too far ahead of you, but it could also be a way for other players to bug you about doing what you agreed to for the game. And of course life happens, but I think we are generally pretty understanding about that. The above could be facilitated by GMs who are more concerned that their game will be subject to inactivity, and explicitly asked for in signups. I definitely enjoy more active players, and as an elim try to murder them with slightly lower priority. There's a tricky balance between keeping the game fun and playing optimally here, but it's something each elim team can talk out and find their own best way to go about doing. I also think that there is some room in game mechanics to keep players more engaged. Regular/cosmetic roles, RP, PMs, and group docs are all non-analysis/vote things that can help keep players invested in a game, but they generally need to be built into a game by the GM, and not all of them are a great fit for every game. Some games use an economy system that incentivizes certain types of activity, and perhaps we should look to have more systems (perhaps not directly impacting the game itself) built into our game. -
I guess I'll go for the gun. I think my death would clear some things up for a few people, and it would only happen if we grinched an elim, which puts the village in a pretty good spot anyways.
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I’m going to vote on Devotary for now. I’ll try and elaborate later, but she is my greatest suspect.
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I used my Map. I’d like to think I’m the one that found all those Crabs (which I propose we split among the survivors).
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That is a good point that I totally didn’t think of.
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The clock might be worth using, if only because the elims probably have a good idea of which villagers still have chalk, so they could make a more informed roleblock. With 4 maps, we should be able to grab enough chalk the next few cycles to keep up with the Horde and not be too obvious about who is doing a LoW.
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We currently have 6 votes out of 12, which I agree isn't great. @Gears, @Lotus, @Burnt Spaghetti, @Random Bystander, @Shard of Reading, @Devotary of Spontaneity, y'all want to vote?
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That's not exactly right, since I was unclear in our PM. LG57 had 13 players, and 3 elims, which is closer to 25% than 20%. And then when Sart told the elims about the Shadowblaze, he said it was probably broken. So my guess is he would have erred toward a smaller elim team this time around. But I could be wrong, and trying to guess what is going on in the mind of the almighty GM is always a dangerous game.
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I want to say more, but have been kinda busy. My vote is on Mist for 2-ish reasons: 1) She claimed to have tried to grab items every turn. No indication that she is trying to help defend the village, or just lying and doing elim things. 2) Last cycle, during what seemed that the time to be an important vote between myself and Striker, Mist claimed both to be suspicious of me and trusting of Striker, but didn't vote. That fits with an elim in a v/v vote between very active players. Edit: The other thing is that Mist has been active on the Shard. So she could have voted, but chose not to
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Camp defense was 5 during the night.
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I have to stop myself from saying that anytime I'm anonymous . I started saying it just for fun, but it became a habit. Elysian sat at the edge of the camp. Light from the fire played across his back, but its warmth did not reach him. Even if he’d been closer, the flames could not cure the chill his heart felt. Today he had been responsible for the death of an innocent man. Not only that, but he had turned brother against brother, friend against friend. Frederick and Duncan were close, that much was evident. The power of the Forgotten to shatter a bond like that was just as terrible as their command of the chalklings. As the camp settled into its nighttime routine, the fire burned lower, deepening the shadows around him. Longing the escape of sleep, yet dreading the nightmares it might bring, Elysian let the night overpower his mind. Elysian dreamed of fire. Not the warming fire of the camp, but of the raging fires of destruction and failure. He knelt in the center of a village, burning around him, ashamed of his failure. *Thwack* A pain exploded in the back of Elysian’s head as he toppled into the dust. When the stars faded from his vision, he could make out the transparent outline of an old man hefting a staff, standing over him. “Get up you fool. It’s not over yet. This,” he waved his stick at the carnage around them, “hasn’t happened. My story ends this way, but yours isn’t finished. It might turn out like this, but you still have work to do.” “Work. Just like the work I did today? Destroying families…” “Just like that. That’s what you signed up for when you came out here. When it’s all done, if you’re still alive, you can feel sorry for yourself then. Fredrick knew what he was getting himself into, and so did Duncan. Don’t let either of their losses be in vain.” The elder pointed the staff menacingly. “Get back out there and do your job until you drop.” The dream faded from Elysian’s mind, replaced with the darkness of the night. And slowly, he got on his feet and walked toward the fire. Toward friends and toward the light. His soul needed all the brightening it could get, for more dark work awaited the next day.
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Well, bother. My sincerest apologies to Striker, since I'm fairly sure I'm the primary reason he came into the spotlight to begin with. I used a Bucket of Acid during the day (the one Gears saw me grab). I'll throw myself out as a potential target for the Gun, since I'll likely be the focus of the grinch next turn, or at least hog a lot of the discussion. And shooting me down will prevent another increase in Chalking strength. My current suspicions all lie on the people that have been hanging back. Mist is probably the largest suspicion of these, since she posted suspicion of me, lack of suspicion on Striker, and didn't vote. I'll have more to say on this once I reread the thread.
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Yeah, if we were convinced that Striker was village, there would be no reason to grinch him. But I’m not, and I don’t think others are. If I thought Striker was village, it’s likely that neither of us would be up for grinching.
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Um, yeah. I don't see any of this as suspicious, except possibly my vote on you. But again, why would elim!me not have just bussed TUO and been done with it? That would have been the superior play by far (as evidenced by you and Kas's reactions), and would fit with my past record better (even though my being aware of this makes it something of an IKYK). I made this post (which quoted and was directed toward Striker): The bold is why I voted Striker. Kas found my change from a consistent suspicion of Gears to voting on Striker over him to be suspicious. I still feel like this post justifies the vote reasonably well, but others disagree.
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If I'm bussing, that means Striker's elim, so I'm happy with that. Although, if Striker is elim, I'm going to be somewhat suspicious of everyone who has accused me of bussing so far. Seems like an easy way to frame me given my reputation recently.
