Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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Since TJ isn't going through, I'll join on Striker.
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I guess I respect the two of you as players enough to be worried that you are pulling some kind of gambit. I think your interactions this cycle could easily have been a whole bunch of distancing (and I think Striker might have been ready to bus you). Striker certainly backed down easily enough when you challenged him. I certainly hope that's true, since I am greatly enjoying this game, and would like to survive long enough to figure out whether you have been duping me all this time, or if I really do just have the sort of face that only a mother could love.
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TJ is suspect for voting alongside Whysper last cycle and for voting on Elandera with Quinn and Striker this cycle. I honestly think he's elim. If he flipped village then I'd be a bit more confident in Striker/Quinn being e/e. But I'm also sort of procrastinating on actually pushing for a vote on one of Striker/Quinn, and I think TJ is a viable alternative. On a not entirely unrelated note, I'm a bit worried that I'll be the NK tonight, which sort of makes me want to push for one of Quinn/Striker before I die. But that likely won't get much momentum in the last 20 minutes.
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Quinn. I'm going to vote TJ Shade. I came into this cycle suspicious of a Striker/Quinn team, and I don't think I've really changed my mind, except to become more suspicious of TJ. I don't think an Elandera flip will be useful (because I think she's village, and village flips don't tell us a whole lot). I'm bothered that again Striker and Quinn are voting together, and I guess I'll appeal the other other folks to back me up here. @Ashbringer, @forget me not, @Gneorndin, @Condensation, @Elandera, any of y'all willing to join me on TJ? @Quintessential and @StrikerEZ, I don't know how you can both be so suspicious of each other and so comfortable voting for the same person. Would either of you be willing to defect to my cause? Edit: I forgot to ping @Flyingbooks, who I would also ask to consider voting this cycle (unless you said you wouldn't be around this cycle, in which case I sort of apologize for bothering you).
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So if Striker is one of your top suspicions, does that change your opinion about Elandera? You and Striker both seem to suspect both each other and Elandera. TJ, another of your suspicions, is also voting on Elandera. If we assume that the elims aren't trying to bus this cycle (somewhat reasonable, given that they just lost a member), and assume that at least one of you/Striker/TJ is elim, then that suggests to me that Elandera is likely village.
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So I'm pretty sure that one or both of Striker/Quinn is elim. But I'm also a little worried that I'm counter-tunneling or something. And killing both Striker and Quinn seems likely to kill off the thread as well. @Quintessential, if you assume that I'm village, and that I just goofed and/or played suboptimally earlier in this game, then who would your top 3 suspicions be? I guess since both Striker and Quinn see Elandera as elim then I probably don't want to vote for her. I think TJ and Connie are my two highest suspicions after Striker/Quinn. I'm not too sure that elim!TJ would have followed elim!Whysper onto Books. So that brings me back to Connie again, and whether to vote out an active player or a new pinch-hitter. Although, TJ has already voted Elandera and both Striker and Quinn seem headed in that direction as well. I guess I'm not going to change my vote, but I think I'd be happy voting off any of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie. I hope that at least 2 of those 4 players are elims.
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@Quintessential, I would like to say that regardless of your alignment, I do appreciate the effort you have put into this game, and can say at least for myself that the game is more fun (albeit a bit tense last cycle ) with your contributions.
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I did claim rather early. Before the game started, in fact .
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My elim read on you and Striker is because you both have pretty strongly pushed my death for most of the game, largely based on a vote I made D1, the least useful of the cycles. You in particular seem very eager to kill off the person that was responsible for the death of an eliminator. Like, I appreciate both you and Striker contributing to the discussion, which is why I initially didn't vote for either of you, but it's getting tiresome having to defend myself from really trivial stuff plus my reputation from past games. You and Striker also have agreed an uncomfortable amount with each other this game, at least prior to this cycle, which again makes me think that one or both of you are elims. I don't think it's useful to consider any information independent of the rest of what we've seen. We should be looking at everything right now in the light of Whysper's flip, since that is the primary concrete bit of evidence we have to go on. I don't think I have a gut read one way or the other on her. It's not really based on votes, although Whysper did vote Striker briefly during D2. It's more that Whysper mentioned Striker multiple times while progressing from an elim read to a village read. Whysper didn't really interact with many players, so Striker sticks out as a result.
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Valid points, which lessen my suspicion of Randby. For some reason I had though Elandera and Randby voted at similar times, but I guess that is just because people were grouping them together. I still think elim!Randby might have reacted to my vote on Whysper with a vote on me, but it's not worth killing a pinch-hitter yet, I suppose. I'm willing to vote Quinn. Although I think I'll still be pretty suspicious of you regardless of Quinn's flip, due to your strong connection to Whysper. I think we would have to assume that Elandera had an incorrect vote count for it to be likely that she's elim. Otherwise she could just vote one me and have a 50% chance to save Whysper.
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So the issue here is that Gears was inactive for explicitly stated IRL reasons. There's a difference between killing off players who are just choosing not to participate, and those who are too busy to do so. The first is sensible if you think the elims could be hiding in the quiet, while the second is rather rude. I also think you are ignoring that massive shift in perspective I had on the game following my reread of the previous cycles. I think you're ignoring some very important things that happened last cycle, and it's making me a lot more suspicious of you. Not only did I vote Whysper, I actively pursued getting other players to move their votes onto her as well. I'd bet a lot that nobody would have followed me onto Whypser if I hadn't made those further posts. Directed toward Books: Directed toward Ash: Forge also voted on Whysper in response to me asking Books to move there: I can vote on Whysper. You are also ignoring Randby's rather late vote on me last cycle. How is it not suspicious to vote late in a cycle when there has been a sudden swing onto another player that happens to flip elim? I agree with your initial POE, but after that you seem rather selective about events. At this point you are either an elim deliberately trying to discredit me, or a villager that has spent too much time digging with Striker. Honestly Whysper/Striker/Quinn/Connie-Randby wouldn't surprise me at this point for the elim team.
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Do you have any particular reason to think Tani is connected to Whysper, or is this unrelated?
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Um, okay. I was considering pushing for a vote on Gears today, so that's actually rather nice. Randby/Condensation and Striker are my two greatest suspicions at this point. I know pinch-hitters and so forth, but there is pretty convincing evidence in this case.
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I would like to say that this bus sort of happened by accident. Ventyl said something that village!elim!me didn’t like, so I threw some suspicion and a vote on him. I then pushed him again as a viable option the next cycle when he died, because at that point anything else would have made me look suspicious. The inactivity thing mostly contributed in that Ventyl’s role was never at the forefront of my mind until we killed him, essentially. The whole thing was sort of in bad form for me, since I didn’t consult with Ventyl beforehand. If I had to replay LG72 I would definitely not do things the same way with regards to Ventyl, for multiple reasons.
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I feel kinda like Batman right now. I can die and be a hero, or stay alive and have everyone hate me. Guess that makes me the grouchy old man that Dalinar needs, but not the one he deserves. Or something.
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Yeah, yeah, I have a reputation for bussing. But first of all, my team demonstrated last game that you can win quite handily by just driving the bus over all the villagers. It’s a bit faster that way as well. Secondly, and more relevant, how can I both be suspicious for bussing Whysper this cycle and for not voting her last cycle? In particular, why would elim!Araris have abstained (barring the vote on TJ) last cycle to begin with? What is this? I suppose people will never be able to trust me around here, which is a good thing. But perhaps you can give me some slack for a cycle or two until I find the rest of Sadeas’s minions.
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Well, I'm glad that worked out. I'm also sort of glad for the suspicion on me, since the elims probably aren't as likely to NK me at this point. I agree that Elandera and Randby both look worse after last turn, although I don't think it makes sense for them to both be elim. I still think Striker has a decent chance of being elim, and possibly Gears as well if there are 4 elims.
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I mean, a guy's got the right to try and save himself, doesn't he?
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I agree with this, although that's partly since it's on me .
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Yeah, that is a good point, I guess. @Ashbringer, would you consider voting for Whysper instead of Books? I gave a couple of minor reasons why I think Books is village, at least for now.
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If everyone seems likely to be an elim, would you be willing to vote on Whysper instead of me?
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Yeah, that isn’t really a big deal. It’s just something took note of, more so when I saw it as a trend. I said follow because I voted on Archer and your vote followed mine. Happy because of the confidence of your post I guess. Another thing about Books being likely village is asking whether my self-vote earlier was a confession of being elim. Forgot to mention that above, but I don’t think an elim would ask that, or at least I don’t think elim!Books would.
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Okay, I'm done with my tantrum, and will stop trying to suicide. Araris. Let's see if we can sort out this mess. Below is a rough sketch of my notes I just took in the last hour. I tried to cover every post that had a vote or a suspicion in it, although I may have missed something. The formatting didn't copy over super well from google docs, but whatever. Dashes and extra spaces separate cycles. The first comment by each name is my impression before doing the reread. I didn't really give my opinions on these things, they are just there for my own reference. Of note is that Striker has been following along with people a decent amount this game. My best guess, based on this reread, is that the elim team is Striker, Whysper, and Gears, in order of decreasing activity. I don't know about how many elims there are, but a fourth could be pretty much anyone. I've mentioned my suspicion of Striker already. The fact that he's been following other players rather than coming up with his own suspicions makes me more suspicious. Whysper has been playing very safe this game. If Striker actually is elim, then I think this fits, since Whysper started with some suspicions of Striker but shifted to hedging and then a village read. I have Gears as elim since he basically seems to be attacking people for their votes without really doing much to contribute to discussion in the moment. For now Whysper gets my vote, since Gears is inactive and Striker is willing to talk a lot. I've voted on Tani, Books, and TJ in the past, so I figure I should say why they aren't on the team. Tani and Books could be a fourth elim, but They both had minor things that make them lower priority. Books was the first player to share having started with spheres, and I don't know if an elim would want to do that. It would give them trust, but it could also let the village know how close they are to getting a Knife. Tani was opposed to the D1 vote, which historically has been a rather dangerous thing to do. And TJ has a legitimate reason for his lack of posts. I just forgot that he was GMing the MR. I've also mentioned Quinn earlier, but I think the fact that she has pre-empted Striker several times makes her the less suspicious of the pair. I doubt the two are e/e, although that would be an interesting gambit to pull off.
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Guess I'll test my hypothesis that the dead doc is more active than the thread. Books, Araris
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You've been fairly quiet and haven't voted this cycle. Too easy this game for the elims to hide in silence.
