Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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Not a chance. I'll catch you on the other side of things.
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Oh, whoops. I thought you said Connie, not Books. Carry on.
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Am I counting wrong? There are 4 votes for Striker, and 3 for Connie. If Ash or Forge switch, the we most certainly don’t have a tie, unless you are making background assumptions about how certain roles will be used. And I think only an elim would be doing that right now.
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I did notice this, and it makes me more comfortable with how things are going, if anything. I’m also happy with that team, although I think an argument could still be made for TJ. Maybe we can’t afford to take things at face value. But sometimes the most likely explanation is the right one, and I don’t think we have enough evidence to the contrary to make the opposite determination (I think the other evidence supports Books, in fact).
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I guess I would ask anyone considering voting on Books to also consider that, taken at face value, his interactions with Whysper were very negative, and that in addition, he made several comments that I believe would be contrary to the goal of an elim to stay hidden. Furthermore, I’ve been basically the only player defending Books this cycle. So if you actually think Books is elim, you probably think I am too. That means that the elim team deliberately put two of its own members in danger C3 just so they could bus a third elim for village credit. And this theoretical ploy has failed rather spectacularly, given that the suspicions of some of the most vocal players have been on Books/myself recently.
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Yeah, that’s a good point. I guess I’m just activityist. The point still holds that I’m really not a fan of the Elandera grinch, which you supported.
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Connie's lack of participation recently, even though it's due to RL stuff, makes me think that she's less likely to be elim. She totally could be, but she just hasn't been engaging in events the same way that TJ has, and I personally find it a bit easier to let things slide when I'm elim. Also, I think that the elims would want to take an active role in the thread immediately after losing a teammate, rather than to sit back and watch things play out. This fails if the elims are something like Connie/Ash/Forge or thereabouts, but I'm having a hard time convincing myself of anything like that. Such a team requires 2 elims to have voted Whysper C3, and I don't consider that very plausible. I think the only reason those two get grouped together to begin with is that they are the non-Quinn/Striker folks that didn't vote Whysper C3. That's the only link between them, really. I guess I'll ping @Condensation again as a reminder for when she gets back. Also, Happy Birthday! You're now one year closer to becoming a grouchy old SE veteran like me! Edit: I agree, in part because of the vote on Elandera last cycle.
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I think the only elim team I would buy in this case is TJ/Connie/Ash, since I stand by everything I've said in defense of Books this turn. And I guess I'd be willing to vote TJ as a very last resort, where there aren't 4 votes on you. Maybe we're all crazy, and don't know what we're doing. But I'm going to have a little faith in myself. Something that hasn't really come up much, is how do people feel about the Elandera grinch last cycle? I took it as evidence of a Striker/TJ elim team, mostly since I was staunchly opposed to it all cycle, but I don't think other people have really said much on the topic.
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I think I can see you being village as a possibility. Last cycle you felt a lot more village than Striker later on. I've found some things this cycle that have made me more suspicious, and if Striker flips elim this cycle I'll definitely consider you as an option next turn. Hopefully (if we find an elim this cycle) the elim kill will shed some light on things.
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I think the Striker/Whysper interactions were contrived, especially since neither of them really put serious pressure on the other, and they didn't attempt to bring other players into the argument. They wouldn't even need to be entirely contrived, but the progression of suspicions to village read happens rather quickly and doesn't really allow for a train to catch on other of them. This is something I brought up in C3, and is somewhere in my mess of a google doc. But during C2 and C3 Striker and Quinn voted together, and they are voting together again this cycle. During C4 they both were suspicious of Elandera as well. A major point I have here is that it doesn't make sense for Striker and Quinn to be happy voting together if they actually are as suspicious of each other as they say they are. Striker and Quinn both made brief pushes towards each other last cycle, but neither of them was particularly likely to actually die at any point. When Striker was pushing for Quinn to get grinched, it was really just him, me, and Quinn talking, and we all saw how far that discussion went. Then Quinn did the last-minute change, but even with both myself and Elandera that had no chance to get Striker killed. So basically I take last cycle as distancing, since it was kind of obvious that I would be strongly pushing to kill one/both of them then and now. And yeah there is definitely some confirmation bias here. But I think it's very reasonable for me to start with the assumption that one of Striker/Quinn is elim. From there, their interactions C2/C3 lead me to put them on the same team. And there is a very reasonable explanation of C4 that fits with that interpretation of events. Edit: Apparently I've written over 2500 words in the last 24 hours
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Yeah, I agree it's not quite the same, since I'm sort of defending myself at a distance by defending Books. But there is definitely a thunderdome happening right now, with rather little input from the non-Striker/Quinn folks. I consider a Books grinch to be essentially game-over for myself, so I have the same incentive to argue to the fullest. But I have the benefit of not having to deal directly with attacks against myself. I'm feeling like you're not going to retract from Books today. Not really any reason for you to. But, for the sake of discussion, how would you rank the elim teams I proposed in order of likelihood? (I won't take it personally if you disregard the option with both you and Striker as elims ) @StrikerEZ, @TJ Shade, I'd be interested in the same from the two of you.
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Whoops, my bad. And I get that there could be totally legitimate reasoning for what you did. That's why I did it in LG72; I could pass it off as something village!me would do. You did include Randby in your PoE, but then dismissed them for interactions with Whysper. Which, come to think of it, doesn't really line up with your current train of thought on Books. On the topic of the NK: I think people are giving this too much weight. Grant me that at least one of myself/Quinn/Striker is elim. I think most people would accept this to be true, and it's important because we've been largely responsible for the direction the votes have been going. If that is the case, that elim could easily choose their NK such that it cast suspicion on some villager that wasn't killed. Getting a free misgrinch seems a bit more valuable to me than removing a semi-confirmed villager, given how close we are to parity at this stage of things. I don't want to bother finding the exact post Books made about Anarchy, but elims are very much disincentivized to suggest weird and/or risky plans to the thread. Attention is a real killer, especially in the early cycles. The thing with me claiming Ruthar is very easily answered by anyone who has been paying attention in the elim doc (although maybe not, since you didn't pick up on it ). Hence elim!Books would likely not ask that question. I also think that Books's comment about my self-vote being an elim claim is in a similar category to the above things. I'm pretty sure that comes out of a villager mindset, and my apologies to Books if I'm wrong, but I wouldn't expect elim!Books to say something like that as a ploy. As sort of a general comment, I think I sort of understand how Quinn felt C4, although personally I'm rather enjoying myself right now. Just hope that I've managed to convince some of the villagers out there. I would like to hear from @Flyingbooks, @Ashbringer, and @Condensation with regards to where you are likely to vote this cycle. I made a post earlier where I listed potential elim teams, which is probably the easiest place to start if you don't want to read through all the walls of text this cycle.
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Assuming that an elim voted for Whysper C2 is the exact same as assuming that Books is elim. So any argument I’ve made for Books being village also applies to this assumption as well. I also think you’re making the common mistake, whether intentionally or not, or looking at a group of players and saying that since all but one are confirmed village, the last must be elim. I’m willing to grant your assumption for C3 for the sake of argument, which I have mentioned multiple times already. Um. You conclude said post with a village read on Books. You also only list 2 things that I saw, and neither of them make any more sense for elim!Books than village!Books. Isn't the IKYK factor reason enough to not kill Books? I mean, you and Quinn jumped on him pretty fast for it, which means that the elim team clearly would have legitimate reason to not kill village!Books. Not killing anyone who voted Whysper C3 leads nicely into the “Why didn’t the elims kill anyone who voted on Whysper C3?” argument for killing off a player that helped vote off an elim. If we are arguing that the elims are taking the time to think out their kills carefully, then I think we need to give weight to the above two possibilities. Also, @Quintessential, what happened to your reads from last cycle? You’ve done a total about-face from suspecting Striker and maybe one of TJ/Connie, with a solid village read on, guess who, all the non-me players that voted Whysper C3, to an extreme push for the death of Books. This is giving me really bad vibes. Brings to mind LG72 (that super bus game), where I put my entire team in an elim reads list, voted for the one villager in the list, and then trivialized said list for the rest of the game. Not quite the same here, since I (a second villager) was in your list, but it stinks to me all the same.
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I don’t follow you. I think it is clear that C3 should bear far more weight than C2 with regards to who voted where. And I by no means think “voted on Whysper” has any positive correlation to being elim. Why would being the only player to vote on an elim twice make Books elim? I was allowing that if, for some reason, an elim did vote on Whysper on C3, then we still are less likely to find that elim than we are to find an elim among the players who voted for myself and Books. And that argument doesn’t take into account any of the other points I’ve brought up in favor of Books being village, like the fact that he was in danger C2 because of Whysper in the first place. Or the comment about my self vote being an elim claim. Or that there isn’t a reasonable elim team of 3 remaining players that includes Books on it and fits with C3.
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Why not just have everyone buy Armor?
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The main things that come to mind are last cycle, in which TJ voted and Connie didn't (and this is suspicious because I think we had good reason to not kill Elandera), and the C3 vote, in which TJ wanted me dead and Randby mostly seemed unsure of what was going on (you can see I'm a little biased here). My response to your question was sort of long (link), but the conclusion was: Although at that point I was waffling a bit on both Striker and Quinn being elims, but felt fairly sure about TJ and Connie. Pretty sure elim!Connie would have voted last cycle though, so that's caused me to change. Edit: Looks like I made the same mistake as Quinn
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I guess I'm arguing for something weaker than you seem to think. If we assume at most one elim voted on Whysper C3, and if we also assume that you are village (I'm giving up a lot here ), then we have that at least 2 out of Striker, Connie, and TJ are elim. Those odds seem much better than the 1/4 out of the players that voted Whysper. The same argument should apply with Striker as well, although I'm definitely not willing to assume you both are village. So it seems like the three of us should be able to agree to vote on TJ or Connie. But neither of you really gave any serious thought to either of those possibilities, hence my increasing suspicion on you both. For everyone who doesn't want to read multiple walls of text, I'll see if I can list out what I consider reasonable elim teams at this point: Myself, Books, and either TJ/Connie. This is for the SE player that is really paranoid about bussing. Quinn, Striker, and either TJ/Connie. My personal view, based on extensive agreement between Quinn and Striker. TJ is elim over Connie at this point. One of Striker/Quinn, and both TJ and Connie. This one is for Striker and Quinn if they decide they don't like the first option. 2 out of Striker/Quinn/TJ/Connie, plus either Forge or Ash. I haven't really put a lot of thought into this one, but it's possible.
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@StrikerEZ, I'm not asking you to assume that everyone who voted Whysper C3 was village (although I currently think that). I was pointing out that if we assume an elim voted on Whysper, we still have much better odds of finding an elim that voted on myself or Books. @Quintessential, I appreciate that you brought up the possibility of Books and myself being e/e, because I think that is pretty much the only legitimate line of thinking for someone to vote Books right now. And given how things played out C3, it sort of makes sense. If two elims are up to die, then you bus a third to gain a double trust. But Whysper and I were the ones putting pressure on Books in the first place, and Books only voted on me in self-preservation. So basically we would have been bussing Whysper to get ourselves out of a mess that we created on our own. I would hope that you'd give me a little more credit as a player than that. I'd also like to mention in general point of fact that I'm well aware of my current reputation with regards to bussing players. Anyone who read the LG74 elim doc knows that I played that game with the specific intent of subverting people's expectations of my playstyle. I never voted for another elim player, or even said that I was suspicious of a teammate through the entire game. So I think you have to assume that elim!me would be aware of the limited amount of trust that a bus would actually get me. So, first of all, Striker hasn't actually come anywhere close to getting TJ killed. I mean, look at how easily he backed off this cycle. I took that interaction as even more evidence for a Striker/TJ team. Also, a similar argument holds for C3. Bussing a player pushes GriLo further back. Game could have essentially ended last cycle if I'd just written my analysis differently during C3. Why bus when victory is only a couple cycles away? It's not a luxury to assume that elims prefer to not kill their teammates. It's not much of a leap from that to say that we should focus on the group of players that wasn't directly responsible for the death of an elim. I would also point out the distinct possibility that the elims might not have had the time to come up with a coherent response to the events at the end of C3, or even not all have been around for rollover. So not only do I have reasons to think Books is village independent of C3, I think based on the odds alone, we have a much better chance of finding an elim elsewhere that people that voted Whysper. Besides, you and Striker seem to be ignoring all the players that voted on myself and Books (you have one minor comment about how Striker/TJ isn't e/e which does nothing to the possibility of 2 out of those 3 being elim). That seems far more egregious than ignoring the players that voted on Whysper, and makes me far more convinced that Striker/Quinn is e/e.
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You are confusing C3 and C2 (or at least which one I'm referring to). There was nothing at stake for the elims C2, so we're basically just guessing at what they did. No reason to think Books is elim or village from that vote. I'm talking about the C3 vote, when we actually killed an elim.
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I think Books is pretty solidly village at this point, and certainly not the player we should be voting out this cycle. I had a village read on Books before C3 and the Whysper kill, but I think the events of C3 should solidify that a bit more. During C3 Books had a very real chance of dying, and likely would have if it weren't for my shenanigans, given the vote removal that happened. Combined with Books's willingness to join me on Whysper, I'm definitely not voting for him this cycle. The point about the NK is your best one in my opinion, but if you believe that the elims are putting a lot of thought into their NKs, then they could just as easily have chosen the kill to get this sort of reaction. I also feel like we should just vote off someone that voted on either Books or myself C3. The elims had the obvious incentive to be on one of those two trains, so it seems certain that there are elims to be found there. I'd rather go for the (relatively) low-hanging fruit before we get into IKYK territory. I also think we should try to consider who would possibly be elims with the player we are currently voting for. I'm currently leaning toward a Striker/Connie/TJ team, but there's some room for flexibility in there. Especially since Striker and Quinn are voting together yet again. Maybe Striker/Quinn/TJ. @StrikerEZ @Quintessential, assuming that 1 elim did vote on Whysper C3, why do you think it makes more sense to try and figure out that elim then to look for the almost guaranteed 2/4 that voted for myself and Books? I feel like you two should at least want to go after TJ or Connie instead.
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I didn't submit an action, so there is no way for me to know if I was actually roleblocked.
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I didn’t get a message saying I was roleblocked.
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My vote is going on Striker for now (and probably for the whole cycle). Probably should have pushed harder to grinch him last cycle, but whatever. I guess I'd be okay killing TJ as well today, but I'd far prefer Striker, just because he's been exerting a lot more influence on the thread, and I think last cycle demonstrated why that was bad.
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I get that a lot. I think that prior to Illwei this game it's been some time since someone had a gut village read on me.
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Have you given an explanation for why you don’t trust me after I got Whysper killed? I don’t recall. Also, any particular reason for trusting Quinn? She went after Elandera about as much as Striker did, and has been in agreement with Striker for much of them game.
