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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    The turn should have ended by now, so I'm locking the thread.
  2. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, village!me would have taken the Mark and then murdered the elim that gave it to me . So I was definitely leaning against that option, but figured it deserved at least to be mentioned. Gotta do what you can to stay alive, you know? (from this you can clearly see that elim!Araris is not a Windrunner, if that wasn't already patently obvious ).
  3. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, and I think you must be the most village. Which is good, because I still haven't gotten over my strange reluctance to try and vote you out. I tried pushing back against it this game, but no luck .
  4. Araris Valerian
    Oh yeah, this game caused me to exceed Alvron in the number of elim games I've played, it prevented me from having a 6-game loss streak, and it put me back at a 50% overall win rate!
  5. Araris Valerian
    Thanks . Although I didn’t really consider any of the things I was doing risky at the time. I would say the thing about inactives whenever (although I didn’t suspect every villager to have a NK). And C2 was just poorly played by our team in general, I think. I left myself without an easy out from voting on Sart, and Mage was leading the other train. Sart was probably right that we should have gone for a more direct win by controlling the thread (except maybe for village NKs ). @Ookla the Pianist, thanks for running the game! And @Elandera, thanks for IMing. I said in the elim doc, this is one of the best SE games I played recently, and I’d love to play a similar rule set sometime! @ookla the lowercase, @Mage, thanks for playing with me and in Sart’s case, putting up with my occasional tendency for a good old bus .
  6. Araris Valerian
    Yeah. Can’t have people trusting me now, can we? I was trying to direct you onto Mage (after the initial play to go after Szeth), because there was no way Szeth would vote for anyone but me. So your instincts were right, but the Gods of Luck and Chance were with me .
  7. Araris Valerian
    @Kasimir, we don’t have extra lives. We instead have a 20% chance to survive any given kill/vote. Said item increases the odds of survival to 30%. And somewhat ironically, my survival means you get to win. Consider it a gesture of respect for your significant efforts to solve the game.
  8. Araris Valerian
    I’d say go ahead.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Well, bother. I thought we could win this one without resorting to ties. Great analysis Kas, you’re only wrong in a couple of places that are to be expected from the blackout nature of the game. Mage Szeth.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Okay, well, I can't survive this cycle voting alone, and I'm pretty sure Kas is my village buddy, so I'll switch from Szeth to Mage. Pretty sure that's the elim team regardless.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Because I 100% know that Szeth is lying. I think the only scenario that makes sense is Mage being his partner, but I could be wrong about that. Why would elim!Szeth claim to be sending on a kill on Mage, if Mage isn't his teammate? If you were his teammate, he would have claimed to be attacking you.
  12. Araris Valerian
    I'd argue that it's the best reason, and something that you haven't been trying to do. You spent C1 and part of C2 tunneling, your vote on C2 was on neither Sart nor Mage, and then last cycle you made the unwarranted assumption that all the villagers have 2 lives while the elims have 1.
  13. Araris Valerian
    The best reason I have is that I've been doing my honest best to figure out this game.
  14. Araris Valerian
    So Tani attacked Szeth, I attacked Mage, and that means the elims killed Tani. So Szeth is definitely elim. But if there are 2 elims left, it doesn't really matter, since the vote today will come down to a 50-50.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Okay, so I'm attacking Mage, since I'm pretty sure he and Szeth are elims together, and Szeth claimed to be attacking Mage so that Tani wouldn't. Figured I'd say this now in case the elims have a double-kill that they use on me.
  16. Araris Valerian
    My current thought of the team is Sart, Mage, Szeth. Not sure anything else makes sense at this point. Unless there are actually just 2 elims.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Kas is likely the only person that can’t kill you .
  18. Araris Valerian
    I'm not going to say. I think the elims have some form of protection, and it may not be passive (i.e., they might only be able to protect a single teammate at a time), so there's no point in saying who I'm going to attack. Unless Tani and the elims double-tap me or something (which assumes Tani isn't elim in the first place), I'll still be around during the day to claim who I hit.
  19. Araris Valerian
    I'm going to be sending in a kill tonight.
  20. Araris Valerian
    So if Danex is elim, and Mage is elim, then this works out well, we just shift over to Mage, and we should be able to determine that the only elim kill was the faction kill, which will lead us to vote out Danex. Village win. If Danex is elim, and Mage is village, and we vote off Mage, then there are a lot of ifs. We don't know whether Tani and Danex are telling the truth about having an extra kill, or if Szeth is being honest about not having one. During the night we'd be 3-2, and could lose if the elims have double-kill potential. If Danex is village, and Mage is elim, then this works out well, since we vote out Mage, and then Danex can either kill Tani or knock an extra life off of our next suspect. If both Danex and Mage are village, and we vote off Mage, then we still get to have the Danex kill, but will probably go into the next day at 2-2. So the outcomes here are actually less dependent on Danex's alignment then they are on Mage's (and only because I put Mage as the default other option). We could replace Mage with Tani, and that would make option 2 a bit less risky I think, but things would overall look the same. If we voted for Szeth or Kas, and that person has an extra life, then we'd still be up 4-2 during the night, but our odds of winning would also still depend on whether the elims have double-kill potential. So, basically it's risky. And because I'm more suspicious of Danex than I am of Mage (and I don't think they are e/e), I'm opposed to taking up the offer. Maybe someone can work though all the possible truth claims and convince me otherwise. But I doubt it.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Why so? Said player could easily have either voted for a side train or on Sart/Mage for better odds or to get village credit respectively. And now I've realized that this contradicts what I just posted, kind of. Anyway, it's bedtime, I'll sort it out tomorrow.
  22. Araris Valerian
    I guess the issue stems from my general reluctance to vote out active players when there are inactive ones that are in the same level of suspicion. This is a good point, and something I've given some thought. But I think the only way this happens is if the 3rd player is also quiet. So I'm elim either way? What has you convinced of my alignment? I presume where I've bolded that you mean to say village. And it seems like you think Danex is elim no matter what. So Szeth thinks the elims are Mage+me, Tani thinks they are Danex+Mage/Kas, Mage thinks they are Danex+Kas, and Kas thinks they are in Danex/Tani/Mage. And I think it's reasonable to assume that one of Kas's suspicions is correct. Kas is really the only person in this list I'd suspect of distancing at this point, so that (and the current votes) suggest that Mage+Danex is not the elim team. Mage could be trying to distance if he sees his death as inevitable, but that doesn't really fit the tone of his posts. That leaves us with elim!Mage being distanced by a teammate, which I doubt Tani would do. Regardless, I think this leads to one of Kas/Szeth being elim. And they've both put out enough content that I should be able to pin down which one of them makes more sense. But it's late, so I'll finish this up tomorrow
  23. Araris Valerian
    Could you elaborate? Like, who do you think would be teammates with Danex, and who would you be suspicious of if Danex turns out to be village?
  24. Araris Valerian
    Okay, so we have confirmed that Tani and Danex have extra lives. But I disagree with Szeth's assessment; with all the village kills running around this game, the elims must have some way to not get NKed. Or there were 4 to start, I suppose, but I don't find that very likely. Who does it make sense to have been elims with Sart? We have Szeth, Kas, Mage, Danex, and Tani. The voting last cycle with Mage is confusing, because I don't understand how neither Sart nor Mage voting in self-preservation makes sense. If Mage is elim, then that pretty much clears Kas (unless Mage has an extra life, which we don't know about). I'd probably put Danex as the third elim, based on Tani's quick jump to vote on Mage this cycle. If Mage is village, then Kas is my best guess for first elim. And Tani/Danex would probably be the other, both of whom only have one life, so they shouldn't be too hard to kill off. However, that doesn't account for the possibility of Szeth being elim. I'm not sure if it makes sense for Szeth to be an elim, but I'm hesitant to make any conclusions based on Sart's vote last cycle, since he didn't vote in self-preservation in the first place. And the rest of Szeth's contributions are tunnels, which at this point are worth less and less. @Ookla the Confused, can you elaborate on who you think Mage's teammate might be and why, and who you think the elims would be if Mage flips village? @Ookla of Anarchy and Chaos and @ookla the quantificational, can you do something similar? I know I didn't reach much of a conclusion in this post, but I'm got some other gaming to do tonight and this is going to require a bit of a reread. I'm going to vote on Danex for now, for the reasoning above about being a teammate with Mage or Kas, combined with having definitely lost an extra life (and thus being practically certain to give us a flip this cycle) and his D1 vote on the non-Sart train.
  25. Araris Valerian
    They both had an extra life. Feruchemists are all eliminators.
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