Araris Valerian
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Everything posted by Araris Valerian
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Okay, here’s my first player analysis: My conclusion is that Danex is village. The read is mostly from tone, but I feel fairly confident about it. Probably the most suspicious thing is hedging on Mage D2. But even that fits with unconfident villager.
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Yeah, I'm honestly just really confused about how quickly things switched over to me, and also I basically have no idea who is elim, hence my promised reread of the game. My gut is currently telling me that a strong shift off of you and onto me means that I should be really suspicious of you. But my gut has been telling me so many different things throughout this game that at this point I think I'm either sick or hungry, and it has nothing to do with anyone's alignment at all.
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Definitely a winning strat during Lylo when you were a pretty easy alternative until I started thinking out loud. But I guess if you're my teammate, then it makes sense.
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So 5 people are voting on me. That makes lots of sense. Uh huh. Y'know, I once gave Wilson a hard time for being so good at being elim that she would inevitably help them out when she ended up as village. Seems that I may have been being a bit hypocritical there...
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That I will what? Give you a hard time? I will definitely do that.
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Yeah (didn't realize that about Orlok), but only my soul is ancient. My body and mind are still young and chipper enough to give you a hard time.
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Every foyer is just a porch in disguise. And also, @Kasimir is retired. He just can't handle being around the vigor of youthful folks like yourself. Once you're as ancient as he is, you'll understand that the body and mind need frequent rest.
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Well, if I was taking this a whole lot more seriously than I ever would, I would be quite saddened that y’all think that I would play how the elims have this game (not trying to control the thread, not submitting a kill last night, no bussing). Edit: Also, no offense intended to the actual elims here. Just don’t see eye-to-eye with you guys on one or two things. And the torrent of votes falling on me makes me think now that Az is actually village. I dunno. I should really do a comprehensive reads list/ISO, because I think I now have multiple competing takes on just about everyone. Good thing there is plenty of time left in the turn for that. Expect something like that from me tomorrow. I’d appreciate if other people could do something like that as well, so we aren’t just all going off of gut reads of things in the last 48 hours.
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Can you summarize? I think I already went over your reasons for suspecting me and found them wanting, but why would Danex be my partner? I was pretty suspicious of Danex after D1, but our interaction afterwards gave me village vibes. Also, Danex and I both voted for Mage D1, I think. But it was in the elims' best interest to have no exe D1 (something I think Az would have caught onto), since that gives no info and still puts us closer to LyLo. I think TJ agreed with me on this that the elims probably split their votes D1. Also also, while tunnel!Mat is coming off village to me, it still doesn't help the village. Edit: Could I get an explanation for this suspicion? Are you just sheeping Mat's vote, or do you have your own reason to suspect me?
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I dunno, reverse psychology or something. And you haven’t really given me much else to work with where you are concerned.
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I heard a rumor that you can soulstamp your character to be an old grouch, and then stamp wherever you live to have a porch for quiet RP interrupted by occasional yelling at the incompetent youngsters.
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Wouldn't it make sense for me to kill you in this case (removing most of the force behind killing me off), and then go ahead and vote out Az? Killing you wouldn't be an expected move from elim!me, since I was gunning for you in the thread last cycle. And Az is quiet enough that I think it would be pretty easy to force a misexe on him.
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So Lahilt is the only person I was really confident about clearing. Mat is really only cleared if we assume that one of Az/Lahilt is elim, and that person was around at rollover. I am pretty confident now that Az is elim, based on the lack of a kill and Lahilt being rather cleared, but don't know if he was around. To clarify with Az, he is the person that was emphasizing why at a theoretical 5-3 the village shouldn't vote anyone out. That logic holds just as strong for the elim team last night, which makes me think Az was arguing for that. Also, while it's kinda suspicious that he pointed it out, I kinda reached the conclusion Mat is pushing us towards, in that he was in opposition to Az's argument despite the math. In combination with his D1 tunnel and Lahilt (the person Mat absolutely wouldn't vote for) likely being village, I would tend to have Mat as village now.
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Pretty sure Az dies to the filter if he doesn't post tonight.
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Hmm, based on Lahilt’s last posts, I’d guess that he’s not elim. Elim!Lahilt would have voted for Mat if Mat was village, and just abstained if he was teammates with Mat. Which means that maybe Mat is village as well. Gotta spend some time thinking and hope it doesn’t go to waste.
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Then elim!Archer is great at coming up with almost the exact same reads list as village!me, which is kind of worrying. That's kind of the only thing I have his as village for, but it's pretty significant and also this is a short game, so there's not much to go on.
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Not really. Elims just knock off Archer, who everyone has as village, and that leaves us back at square one with less people to bounce ideas off of. You really think if we can't get our act together in 48 hours that a couple more days will help at all?
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Well, it seems like half the players just want to not vote and let the elims kill us for free...
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Every situation is a bussing situation . Edit: Realistically, if the elims are pretty sure one of them is going to die today, then bussing is worthwhile. They can't pull off a hammer, so this is somewhat unique compared with other games.
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Well, at least I can lose somewhat happy then. I guess I'd like to hear from Lahilt then, because I think he's the only person you, me, and Archer could all get behind voting off.
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I'm pretty sure you're not representing me fairly here. While it is true that I've been following people's votes, I think it was clear in my posts that I reached my conclusions at least somewhat independently of them. The ruleset requires some level of bandwagoning. And besides, do you really think elim!me would play the way you are implying I have? I'd hope that after the times we've been evil together you'd have at least a little higher opinion of my play.
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@Matrim's Dice, I'm planning on doing a reread tomorrow, so my vote on you might not be final. What would your top 2 guesses of elim pairs be, and why? @Archer, at this point, who are you thinking is Mat's teammate? @Azmine_king, @Danex, @Lahilt, it would be nice to get some input from y'all as well.
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Sounds like a good idea to me. Mat.
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I will sign up as Araolis. Rather grouchy old man with a porch and a rocking chair.
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