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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    I’ll vote Insanity if it gets to that, but I’d much rather exe Elkanah. Elk and Shining were at each other a lot before the Chantara exe, so I feel pretty strongly that one is elim. Since my e!Shining credence is down, it really makes the most sense from my perspective to vote there. It also means I don’t have to commit one way or another about Aman’s alignment, which I am still pretty iffy about.
  2. Araris Valerian
    Uh, JNV is slightly dead right now. Just saying.
  3. Araris Valerian
    This is honestly really concerning to me, since I've been staring at these lists for too long and have no idea what is going on right now.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, this works and makes lots of sense. Though I don’t think there’s anything super great to distinguish between Silho and Elk. They probably aren’t teamed, but either could be elim. At this point a second bladed elim is most likely you or Insanity. I also feel like teams where Silho is elim should be lower credence just because we know he didn’t NK. Also, so that nobody is planning around it (and since anyone paying attention already knows), I don’t have stormlight. I’ve got 4 actions logged (PMs with Kas, killing TUN, killing Szeth, and RBing Silho).
  5. Araris Valerian
    I do feel like a v!Insanity that is interested in winning would have used Tension on myself, Tani, or JNV. The claim of having done nothing rings similar to what Chantara was claiming.
  6. Araris Valerian
    Well, you can maybe remove Insanity and Tani. We honestly don’t have a lot to go on here so I’m not sure that’s unreasonable.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Nope, unused charges carry over and there is nothing in the rules about a cap of 2. Also I’m pretty sure e!Tani would have used Progression since I could have been using Chana to kill someone, and Paliah could have used Illumination on me to stop a roleblock from working. Of course in an e!Paliah world that doesn’t work.
  8. Araris Valerian
    I’m living in a world where either Aman or Elk sent in the NK. e!Insanity would have used Ishar’s blade. One of the things with Aman is that Xino never said anything about Alvron stealing his blade. I feel like a villager would be more likely to ask why the heck they got stolen from. Aman is active and followed me onto Chantara initially without reasoning, but I don’t really see e!Aman playing that differently. His only other option really would have been to push for a Turtle exe. Now, of course Stick went in on Xino early D3, but I’m not sure how much that’s worth. I guess I’d rather vote Elk. But I honestly have no idea because our D1 was such a disaster and apparently the elims didn’t care about us killing Stick D3.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, we know that neither Shining nor Turtle sent in the kill. My roleblock was successful.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Alright, here's the lists: 1. Original set of Blade holders: <Illwei, Xino, JNV, Araris, Stick, Cash, Tani, Insanity> 2. N4 set of Blade holders: <Chantara, JNV, Araris, Turtle, Cash, Tani, Insanity> Turtle picked up Stick's Blade, and Chantara picked up Illwei's. Kalak was with Xino/Aman, then with Alv, and now with the elims (or a random person if Chantara killed Alv). So currently: Turtle has Shalash, JNV has Jez, I have Chana, Tani has claimed Vedel, and that leaves Insanity with Ishar. I grabbed Battar from Cash's death, and decided to RB Shining instead of sending in a kill, since the elims likely have Kalak and are probably going to RB me anyways.
  11. Araris Valerian
    V: Archer N+: Turtle, JNV N: Amanuensis, Tani E: Infinite Insanity, Shining Silhouette, Elkanah Edit: I'd say Turtle is the person I'd be most willing to lower, and Aman the one I'm most willing to raise.
  12. Araris Valerian
    He basically claimed at some point, but I don't remember where. The only PMs I know of were Kas and myself, Kas and JNV, and Kas and Alvron. That is probably it since Tani apparently hasn't made any. I did, but there were a bunch of Secrets, Nightblood was involved, and it was a lot more crazy than this game. I'm not sure that it will help us too much.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, and part of the problem here is that the distribution changes with time, generally shifting more blades to the elims, especially once the Shaman dies. But in a world where the elims don’t find the Shaman, they are realistically stuck with their starting blades and maybe 1-2 more random ones. And that makes me think they need to start with Progression or Transformation (to find a Progression blade or Chana). Or both. And Stick did start with Shalash…
  14. Araris Valerian
    Now that is really not what I was hoping to hear... Maybe flip a coin between protecting yourself and me? Paliah could do the same, and that leaves the elims doing a lot of guesswork. They can't really afford a 50% chance of failing the NK at this point. Edit: I'm curious, and this is maybe asking for a lot of speculation, but given that we have confirmed the village started with Chana (well, this is pretty sure at least), Paliah, and Battar, which blades do y'all think Ash would have given to the elims? Or do folks think this is a fruitless line of thought and Ash is an unrepentant troll? I was sort of thinking they'd get Vedel to counter Chana, but Aman has v!Tani credences.
  15. Araris Valerian
    @Ookla the Implosion, would you mind claiming your blade? I'm planning to do an info dump the last second before the thread closes (so the elims can't factor it into their kill/actions), and knowing which blade you have will be helpful in determining the full distribution. Also, @JNV, if you scan whoever got Kalak then that's almost certainly the person that killed Alvron, since there's not a ton of reason for them to give up a roleblock blade. I suppose also if Chantara killed Alv then someone random would get Kalak, but I'd guess the elims would want someone not already holding a blade to be sending in the kills.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Probably both ways right now, but stronger in the JNV -> Turtle direction.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Mostly me deciding to do something with what Kas/Alv had given me. And connecting the dots with Paliah. JNV’s claim also caused me to start considering a world where he and Turtle are village.
  18. Araris Valerian
    Well, everyone has been harboring a suspicion of JNV, and Turtle was involved in a switch from JNV to Cash on D4. So those two could be elim together, but probably neither without the other.
  19. Araris Valerian
    Well we are in this really confusing world where the elims apparently had like no interactions with the one teammate that flipped. And they probably could have stopped that flip with some smart, minimal effort.
  20. Araris Valerian
    If we get today wrong then all our hopes are on the vig kill going through. This is effectively Exlo.
  21. Araris Valerian
    So they could have been using Illumination during the day (it lasts a full cycle) and sending in unblockable kills at night.
  22. Araris Valerian
    No, everyone starts with 2 charges of Stormlight, regardless of whether they are holding a Blade. Edit: Looks like the Shaman list updates at the end of each day. The only reason I can think of to use Paliah's other power from a village perspective is to stop vote manip when the game is about to end. Which is still less useful than trying to guess the NK.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I wasn't planning on doing any info reveal this turn, but it felt like a good way to get Aman into the discussion and I also am confused enough that I wanted a more mechanically based exe, which I could only convince anyone of by listing some things. I drafted like 3 different things before what I ended up doing, clearly I needed a few more drafts .
  24. Araris Valerian
    On D4 Turtle made a play to save JNV. So if one of them is elim, they probably both are.
  25. Araris Valerian
    I'm living in a world with 5 total elims. Which means that there will be minimum of 2 left after today. Also, I'm pretty sure they have a protect blade. So I think we don't want Chana to claim still, and I'm doing my best to avoid dumping so much info that it becomes obvious to the elims who they are. Edit: Not to mention that they get Kalak for the Night as well.
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