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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    I guess we have to balance the risk of InquisiBip with Pewter today against the risk of InquisiBip tomorrow with vote manip. I'd really rather just have her out of the way.
  2. Araris Valerian
    I mean, didn't you try and make the same point last cycle when we were voting Wiz and it was obvious he was elim?
  3. Araris Valerian
    Not really, since there are better ways to get deliberately exed. See C4 of this game .
  4. Araris Valerian
    I would criticize you for being all over the place if I hadn’t changed my own vote so many times already.
  5. Araris Valerian
    I mean, it's obvious that someone has Tin, and that they could be elim, so Bip's claim isn't really worth anything.
  6. Araris Valerian
    Can someone link me to where Wiz claimed the scan on Biplet? It should be in C3, right? But all I see is TJ’s list with Bip as non-Inquisitor if v!Seeker. TJ Biplet There’s actually something that makes Inquisitor!Biplet a lot more likely. Just assume that Kas/Wiz would claim Bip to have whatever spike they had. Then the elim team can always account for that action, and Bip gets out of being suspected as Inquisitor. It’s just coincidence that there is an external verification of at least one Tineye being alive, which sorta forced them to be honest about which spike they had. That claim is safe because they are converting C3 and there was a known living Tineye then, with PMs still up. I’ll also say that 3 village Tineyes might be a bit unbalanced in this game, since the elim action economy makes the action scan pretty close to an alignment scan.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Uh. Fifth maybe? In a Wiz+Bip world, converting the village Mistborn seems like the play to make. TJ works too, because of all his distancing with Kas. Anyone known not to be the Inquisitor would make a good convert. You could be the convert with your Thug claim. Both Fifth and I are risky because we can potentially block the conversion. There might not even be a convert, if it bounced off of Electrum C3 and then something else C4 (no comment about whether I’ve used Atium yet). I find that unlikely though, since Wiz’s claim C4 seemed like an attempt to end the game.
  8. Araris Valerian
    And I still think Wiz didn’t have scan results on C3 because he used the conversion then.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Yeah. That’s a risk if PMs go down before Bip dies.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Which requires believing that Kas would wager on that happening during C3.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Well, that don’t require a specific spike or implicate someone that has villagery interactions with Kas and the thread in general.
  12. Araris Valerian
    Maybe Inquisitor!Bip is the best explanation. I don’t like that there don’t seem to be any good ones though.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Any reason why you chose Fifth over an Inquisitor candidate?
  14. Araris Valerian
    I have read them. I already stated my unwillingness to vote you at the start of the cycle. But, I’m also the legendary bus master, so I have to give some credence to the idea that you are just competent at distancing. And Inquisitor!you makes more sense to me than Inquisitor!Bip, in that it doesn’t require the elims to start with a specific spike that is rather useless for them.
  15. Araris Valerian
    That’s the world I’m in. C3 is when I suspect the first conversion (attempt) was made. It couldn’t have happened C1 because Kas scanned me accurately, and a NK went through. It could only have happened C2 if Bip is the Inquisitor or there is a Tin spike, but if Bip is the Inquisitor then we don’t know why PMs were up last cycle and they still are. We certainly know the elims burned 2 actions C2, so Aman can’t be a starting elim. In this world TJ is the only legit Inquisitor candidate. Edit: @Amanuensis, what is your explanation for PMs being up after 2 dead Tineyes? Especially since there is no way to no what Inquisitor+Mistborn would roll 2/3 cycles ahead.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Oh yeah. That is very relevant, given that we are worried about action economy. The elims definitely killed C2 and either scanned or converted, so Aman can’t be the Inquisitor. Aman Uh. I think that means it’s TJ, unless we are really convinced that the elims had a Tin spike.
  17. Araris Valerian
    @Biplet, do you have juicy scan results for us? Was someone sneaking around at night when they should have been sleeping?
  18. Araris Valerian
    My bad, I was misremembering. The point was made about Fifth voting with Kas/Wiz on you. Aman The fact we haven’t lost and that there is no openwolfing does suggest v!Ffith. The problem with Inquisitor Bip is that it requires a very specific spike. I kinda think the conversion happened C3, and that Bip is an original Tineye. That explains why Wiz didn’t know what an Unsnapped/Smoked scan would look like, since he needed his action for the NK instead. Now, the funny thing is Fifth claimed electrum C3, which, if true, means the elims just now made their conversion. (Or failed again, though that’s a bit unlikely) It also suggests that we have Inquisitor Aman or TJ (or me, if you entertain that world). *sigh* Aman
  19. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I just feel a little weird that we didn't lose last cycle given that Inquisitor+Mistborn has a decent chance of pulling vote manip. But apparently the convert can't be lost, so Fifth is probably evil. I do think your play both last cycle and this one fit way more with you being a villager. An e!Inquisitor could win without putting in a lot of effort by pulling the right metals, same with e!Fifth. But a villager can only win at this point by solving, and your solving has a sort of "desperation" to it that feels legit. Just needed to float the possibility so I don't get locked in too hard. Edit: Oh. Bip can be Inquisitor. The elim spike just needs to be Tin Edit 2: We know the elims didn't convert C1, since Kas accurately scanned me, and the NK happened. A NK happened on C2, so for Kas to have actually scanned Bip would mean that the conversion wouldn't have happened until C3. Not sure how likely that is. And then scan on Bip took her out of our Inquisitor POE.
  20. Araris Valerian
    Hmm. We don’t actually know that Bip is a Tineye, just that one probably exists. It could be Inquisitor!Bip and Tineye!Aman. That seems unlikely though, given Aman’s roleclaims. There’s some other weird things that could work if Fifth+Inquisitor have rolled Tin every cycle since C1, but they aren’t worth considering IMO. So suppose we have e!Aman and e!Kas as the starting elim team. I’m honestly surprised that I’m not converted in this world, especially since I specifically asked Kas to. One possibility is the elims tried to convert Fifth but got blocked by Electrum or Atium. @StrikerEZ, if the Spike gets blocked, can it be attempted again? The only problem I currently see is that there isn’t really a reason that TJ can’t be the Inquisitor. But I’ll join on Aman for now, I like the argument that was made end of last cycle about his voting, though this is subject to change on reread.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Well, there’s always Atium/Electrum/Copper. I wouldn’t be surprised if Aman is right, so hopefully we can dodge the kill somehow.
  22. Araris Valerian
    I was more referring to my village games. In the last couple years I've only had 4 elim kills take me out.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Nope, I’m a Seer. And the fact that I never got attacked adds some extra credence to e!Wiz. I’m not sure what the deal is with GMs giving me NK protection roles. I almost never get targeted with kills.
  24. Araris Valerian
    I mean, I had a village read on him, but apparently a bunch of other folks found him off. So it could go either way. We might lose regardless, due to vote manip.
  25. Araris Valerian
    That is very interesting. Because the rules specifically say, “Seekers receive a ‘Roleless’ result when scanning a Smoked player.” TJ Wizard
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