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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    I think this far Elandera seems to be making an effort this cycle, and I’ve explained my take on Wiz, but I agree that I’d like to hear them both elaborate on their current reads.
  2. Araris Valerian
    You appear to be missing JNV’s vote on TKN. And c’mon guys, this is embarrassing. It is possible to play and win as village without Kas to hold our hand along the way. Half the votes placed this cycle have no stated justification and nobody seems interested in discussing the outcome of the previous days. The game doesn’t solve itself. In response to TKN’s “defense” towards JNV, your point is essentially irrelevant. So far a couple of people have pointed out how you seem to be elim this game, and you’ve said they are wrong. Okay, sure, you can say that. But that doesn’t really help. You could be lying, you could be switching things up. What you aren’t doing is (visibly) looking for elims. At least the folks voting on me are doing that. I’m working on a more comprehensive analysis post that hopefully will go up before I go to bed.
  3. Araris Valerian
    What changed since last cycle, when you were happy to vote on him?
  4. Araris Valerian
    I'm not sure that is definitionally a poke vote. What are your thoughts on Ash and TJ? Do you think the elims would have either Lopen or Rushu on their team? What about Wizard? Do you agree with my analysis that it doesn't really fit for him to be elim with Ash? Edit: @TheAlpha929, I'd also like to hear your thoughts on the above, and whether or not your reads list has changed since the start of D2.
  5. Araris Valerian
    So my take on this though is that a bunch of non-Ash folks had 2 votes when Wizard switched. If e!Lopen (which I am considering regardless of Wiz's alignment), why leave his survival up to chance? Wiz could have switched to myself, or Sart, or TJ.
  6. Araris Valerian
    It's possible that Kas is a Cord kill and that Ash managed to block the elim kill. I don't think anyone was reading Kas as elim though. So it seems more likely that either Cord didn't kill or that Ash blocked Cord. Assuming Kas ate the NK, that means the elims are more concerned about thread control than they are about roles. I'm going to start out with a vote on TKN. Like I've said before, I'm not a fan of his response about his elim tells, and Kas mentioned in our PM that he'd expect v!TKN to have had more of an impact on the game by now. I'm still having a hard time seeing why e!Wiz switches his vote from Ash to Alpha on D1. It probably makes sense in a v/v/v/v/v world, where he boosted the tie up to 5 people in the hopes of distracting/excusing Cord for killing those folks and hoping that counterwagons would get exed. But I don't really believe that Ash, TJ, and Alpha are all village (though I still lean village on Alpha).
  7. Araris Valerian
    "I am sitting on my porch the deck out in the open!" Araris placed a hand lightly on the hilt at his side. "My intentions are true as my blade, which I suggest you give me no cause to turn against you." There are lots of folks that I'm fine exeing this cycle, and I've got a vote on one of them. Like I said earlier, I consider Kas, Alpha, and Wiz off limits for now, but don't have a strong village feel for anyone else. I might switch my vote to Ash because of a lack of solving + defensive attitude last cycle combined with it being useful to know his alignment for figuring out the D1 votes. It does seem like Ash/xino/TJ are all related in that flipping any one of them elim would be fairly useful in determining the alignments of the other two: e!TJ implies v!Ash and e!xino, e!Ash implies v!TJ, and e!xino would suggest that one of TJ or Ash is elim. I have preference toward exeing Ash or TJ to help resolve the tie from D1, but we could look elsewhere and hope that Cord is willing to help out in that department
  8. Araris Valerian
    You're right, I had it backwards. e!Ash doesn't imply e!Wiz, since it raises the question of why Wiz created a tie rather than putting someone else in the lead. Well, I would have shifted my vote sooner if I'd realized that Archer's vote wasn't going to stick to Telrao, and just wasn't online again until near EOC. Rollover is right in the middle of the school day for me, though the half-hour before cycle end is generally free. Honestly I didn't have a reason for voting you in particular. It was D1 and I was trying to feel out if anyone wanted to counter the Ash train that we'd been sitting on literally the entire day. At that point only Sart and myself also had 2 votes, neither of which I was super attracted to. I'm comfy on side trains, but that doesn't mean it's helpful for me to vote on them.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Doesn't it make more sense to exe Ash in this scenario (since e!Ash -> e!Wiz but not the other way around)? And why would e!Wiz not vote on TJ, Sart, or myself rather than Alpha, assuming Ash is elim?
  10. Araris Valerian
    Well, now we know that Sart and both of the folks that voted him were village. Ash, Alpha, TJ, (and myself) were the other D1 trains. Wiz created the tie by moving off of Ash and onto Alpha. Which suggests that if Wiz is elim, Ash is elim. Or maybe TJ if Wiz has a high risk tolerance. We can almost certainly rule out any team that has both Wiz and more than one out of {Ash, Alpha, TJ}, for whatever that's worth. In fact, I'd say regardless of Wiz's alignment, it is unlikely that more than one of {Ash, Alpha, TJ} is elim, or the elims wouldn't have let the tie go through. This feels pretty village to me, not going to lie. I appreciate someone that defaults to having a lot of evil reads as opposed to a lot of village reads (even if he's self-aware about it), and I think that's easier to do when you don't know exactly who all is evil already. So for now my DNE list is: Kas, Wiz, Alpha. Maybe leftover bits of xino And my Flip Please Flip list is: Ash, TJ So I'll start off the day with a vote on TJ. I'm honestly a bit surprised that Ash didn't get killed by either team based on his roleclaim (great NK target if v) and the fact that he survived the day after never having less votes than anyone (great Cord target).
  11. Araris Valerian
    My PM is going to a porch bro, in the interests of preventing redundancy.
  12. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, Ash has been either in the lead or tied the entire game. There doesn’t seem to be any appetite for Telrao, and I’m not too sure where else to vote. Any takers for TJ? I’m pretty okay with the Ash exe as well, I just find it curious that opposing trains haven’t really found much purchase.
  13. Araris Valerian
    In addition to what Kas said, I'm not a big fan of this. There was a previous game where someone said they were deliberately trying to be suspicious for similar reasons, and we exed them D1. If you have obvious elim tells, it's your elim play that needs work, not your village play. Also, the defense, "I'm incorporating my elim tells into my village play" can be used by literally any elim when expressing one of their tells. My current summary of the cycle's voting so far: Lots of early votes (including mine) on Ash in the midst of poke voting. Xino, who's activity currently suggests he is village, placed a 4th vote on Ash This prompts Wizard to switch onto Xino. Stick fishes for a train on Wizard, and Telrao on Kas Sart puts a second vote on Xino while being mistaken TJ adds another vote onto Ash Telrao switches to Xino, so does Alpha I'm currently leaning village on Xino. I don't really have more to my Ash vote than when I placed it, but would still prefer to exe him over Xino, based on the Xino read. I would like some more explanation from both Telrao and Alpha about why they prefer Xino over Ash. Their votes feel very "safe", while also adding to a train I'm not hugely a fan of.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Actually, nevermind. There have been a few times where e!me has placed a 3rd vote onto a teammate D1 in order to get a train on them to collapse. xino's vote was a 4th vote, but might have had similar motivations. I don't think Wiz and xino are e/e right now.
  15. Araris Valerian
    And it turned out I was secretly an elim the whole time anyway. Not sure what I think about Wiz backing off of Ash.
  16. Araris Valerian
    I'll join Wizard on Ash. I don't really lean either way on Alpha, but Kas feels like himself right out of the gate.
  17. Araris Valerian
    I mean, I wasn’t present in either the spec docs or the elim docs, to avoid getting suggestions from other people. Your suggestion is noted, since I was just copying for QF 33 and didn’t try and do any balancing this run. If you have any ideas for (preferably Cosmere themed) methods, let me know and I can add them to the sheet for a future run.
  18. Araris Valerian
    Prompted by the Aracle, the SPF eventually concluded that AraRaash was guilty of killing the Ja, with Attic heading up the accusation. When the time came for AraRash's trial, however, Attic, who was the only claimed witness to the murder, was nowhere to be found. In the absence of his testimony and lacking further aid from the Aracle, who had gone strangely silent, AraRaash was released and the investigation was deemed inconclusive. As he left the SPF headquarters for the day, Aurel Kourrakis continued to turn some thoughts in his head that refused to be ignored. Nobody had heard of this "Aracle" until around the time of the Ja's death. It was rather convenient that a being capable of replacing the Ja would appear in the exact moment when the Ja was killed, and that this position would grant it unquestioned authority in the forthcoming investigation. Had ArarRaash been convicted, chances were that nobody would have thought twice about whether their source was questionable. As it was, Aurel intended to pursue his doubts until they were laid to rest. I want to thank everyone for playing! I had a lot of fun this game, and hope you all did as well. Congrats to @Ashbringer, @The Known Novel, @Fifth Scholar, @Telrao, and @xinoehp512 for winning round 2! Also a big thanks to @Devotary of Spontaneity for IMing for us. And though he's not around, another big thanks to @Herowannabe for creating the rules and the spreadsheet for us to use . Player List: Doc Links:
  19. Araris Valerian
    Stick is the Witness, so the Assassin and the Co-conspirators win! I’ll get the aftermath up sometime tomorrow most likely.
  20. Araris Valerian
    ... Yes.
  21. Araris Valerian
    No.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Invalid. An accusation must include a Method of Murder and Key Evidence, both corresponding to the accused person.
  23. Araris Valerian
    I'm glad you joined us! This game is pretty non-standard, hopefully I'll murder play with you in a more normal game soon!
  24. Araris Valerian
    Cycle 2.5 will end at 11PM Eastern Time on Thursday (if a Witness guess isn't given before then).
  25. Araris Valerian
    Yes. I'm in the middle of something but the 24 hour countdown starts now.
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