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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    But the only reason you think there is an elim between myself and Mat is because of a claim that I made without prompting. Why does e!me claim Silver Bones to Kas in our PM? (The context of the claim was explaining my D2 vote on Mat, but again, e!me doesn’t want to mess with that POE because it just gets me killed after Mat flips v)
  2. Araris Valerian
    My point is that it makes sense in both worlds. Mechanically e!you seems likely, and I’m just demonstrating (partly to myself) that it’s compatible with what went down in the thread D1 Or Steel is lying, right? Unless I’m forgetting some reason Steel is cleared. And like Devo pointed out, JNV could have sent in the kill as well, so we probably don’t want to use the assumption that he didn’t for mech analysis. Too easy to get burned.
  3. Araris Valerian
    The interactions with Archer aren’t e/e at face value, but Archer’s push for you kinda looks like it was designed to fall apart. He pointed at you being annoyed when it’s clear you weren’t, and then uses that as an excuse to unvote you later. Pointing out your own internal tunnel seems like a ploy for e!you to go for village credit. On reread, maybe I was conflating Aman and Kas? Not sure. Aman did have semi-consistent suspicion of Archer and ended with Archer near the bottom of his reads list.
  4. Araris Valerian
    That’s a dishonest representation of my post. Mech is strongly influencing my vote, but your interactions with Archer are kinda weird. Both his tunnel on you, and your claimed tunnel on him seem fabricated. It’s clear from Aman’s play that the elim team had strong distancing on their mind. I also feel like v!you should want to resolve me as soon as possible, since from your perspective it doesn’t make sense for me to be village, and as long as I’m alive people would doubt you for mech reasons.
  5. Araris Valerian
    This is assuming that Mat and I aren’t both evil, I presume? Because technically Mat could be the elim from the N3 POE, and then the elims could just have 2 pairs of SB. I guess I should mention that the only reason anyone knows I have SB is that I claimed to Kas without being prompted. The problem with e!Mat is that his D1 is weird. Archer was tunneling on Mat the entire day for a really bad reason (“annoyance” that was not at all evident in Mat’s posts). And then Mat placed the third vote on Archer. He did leave open the option of switching onto DeTess or Ash, both of whom seem pretty clear right now. But then he doesn’t switch to DeTess when given the opportunity. However, he wouldn’t need to since the public VC had DeTess at 4 and why would a villager use Voice? Another point against Mat is that he tried to claim being in a tunnel, which, as I stated earlier, isn’t really a valid statement so early in the game. I am very aware of Mat’s tunnels and doing a D1 reread didn’t give me any impression that was what was going on. So I guess what I’m saying is I see a world where Mat is elim and his D1 works in that context, but it doesn’t seem like e!Mat is the best explanation for all that. However, the SB thing seems fairly condemning from my perspective, so I’m voting Mat.
  6. Araris Valerian
    Sorry for my absence during the day, I’m at a conference right now and am pretty busy. I won’t really be more available for a while but I’ll try at least to vote tomorrow. And yeah, I claimed Bones to Kas after he got cleared. Didn’t want to mention it but that was part of my motivation for going after Mat D2.
  7. Araris Valerian
    I was roleblocked, so I couldn’t have used Voice. Not sure what happened to my vote.
  8. Araris Valerian
    Devotary blocked me during the night.
  9. Araris Valerian
    I think I'm looking at a POE of Illwei, Ash, Fae, and JNV, at least for the elim that sent in the kill last night. Mat and DeTess would be the next two to add in. Kas and Devo are reasonably clear from mech Alv (and I) couldn't have killed last night TJ voted Archer relatively early on both D1 and D3 TKN helped to condemn Archer (although notably, if the elims had given up on Archer this would be an excellent bus opportunity) Steel was inactive Alpha passed a mask to Devo I'm not sure about DeTess, on D3 she specifically voted Alv over Archer but made the case that one was almost certainly elim. Also Alvron wasn't a bad vote by any stretch. And like Kas points out, she's the person Archer went for D1. Altogether leaning village but reluctantly. Mat similarly looks good from the D1 voting, but his Silver Bones mean that he could be the e!SE. And I'm not sure how much this counts for, but he voted for both Archer and Aman, which elims would probably want to do for better odds of reclaiming items. So less village than DeTess, but don't really want to vote him today. My gut is telling me to vote Illwei right now but I'm fine with any of the 4 above. I think Ash and Illwei have enough content to get a better read on them so I'll work on that.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Who is this person named Kas that you think would want to deepwolf? I'm not sure I've ever met that player before.
  11. Araris Valerian
    That’s kinda what I’m thinking. The only person that would hit Archer last night is a villager with a crossbow, and I’d argue that v!Archer should be fine taking a kill to clear his slot. Not to mention the distro concerns, I have a hard time seeing all this protection with a 4-elim team. Might explain why Archer proposed a 5-man team during C1.
  12. Araris Valerian
    For Alvron, “new player” probably means anyone that’s joined in the last couple of years .
  13. Araris Valerian
    Seems to me that one of {Alvron, Archer} is likely to be an elim based on the writeup, and I find Archer to be the more suspicious of the two.
  14. Araris Valerian
    I don’t know. It’s useless to me unless someone passes me a crossbow from what I can tell.
  15. Araris Valerian
    I got the Silver Dust by the way, so Aman did have it.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Well, in this game the player submitting the kill would be down a bit more to how roles got distributed, such as Silver Bones or Silver Dust. I'll also note that I am very aware of how players perceive me liking to send in the kill, especially in games with roleblocks. Another thing to note is that the White Fox isn't confirmed good this game. But I'm not sure that e!Devo would pick v!Aman to pull something like this on, given that he would definitely put up more resistance than some alternatives. Aman confirming that he was roleblocked is nice at least. Hmm. I'm trying to think through why e!roleblocked!Aman wouldn't try some claim shenanigans, but I don't actually think there's a good option there. Mat Aman
  17. Araris Valerian
    It’s more that I don’t think I have convincing reasons to get anyone else to vote for you. But you are definitely in the pool of ~10 players that I have no qualms about exeing. My wording was just in contrast to my earlier post. It’s true that a lack of e!Voice users could just be caused by inactivity, which would point to those folks. And that opens another can of worms in that the elims might have just failed to send in a kill on accident. I don’t think that’s as likely as a RB though.
  18. Araris Valerian
    You're right, that was Ash and Archer. Still going to stick with the vote for now. Just that there is a group of low-active/non-voters that I'm not interested in exeing today.
  19. Araris Valerian
    Sorry guys, I've just been feeling kinda crummy the last few days. Should still be able to participate/vote, but probably won't be super interactive in the thread. I'm village reading Alpha. His last post from N1 has only 1 village read but several suspicions, and that aligns more with a village mindset IMO than the reverse. Don't think anything has changed about Archer; I'd exe him again today (except for the next line). It's worth noting that (probably) everyone who used Voice claimed in thread. I feel like non-voting elims have a decent incentive to use Voice during a close vote just to throw in some chaos. So, contrary to my prior post, I'm actually in favor of an anti-CC, in regards to JNV, TKN, and Steel. Alv as well, since his vote definitely failed to create chaos. I guess I'm voting Mat. Given the number of players this game, I think it makes sense for the elims to have a set of Silver Bones. Elims wouldn't need to Voice to save him, given the EOD votes. And Illwei thinks he could be teamed with Archer. There was also something about Mat tunneling, but I never really got that feel for him. Especially on D1, usually a tunnel becomes clear over more than just one cycle.
  20. Araris Valerian
    I think Kas’s analysis is sound; either the elims deliberately didn’t send a kill, or they got roleblocked. The other options require too many things to line up nicely. Did we determine all the voting shenanigans last cycle? Because if not, I’d propose going after the non-voting D1 players as a combined CC and legitimate POE for who used Voice.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Yeah. Archer. This is mostly me agreeing with TJ's early vote on you; discussion of elim numbers isn't really substantive, and I didn't see anything else to sway me back. As for the Voice discussion, I think the ability is mostly useful for elims, but has a limited use case even for them. Consequently, I think that everyone should publicly vote, because secret votes are definitely more of a factor than the fact that voting is useful for solving the game.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Apologies for my lack of contribution thus far, I'll vote on somebody before I go to bed tonight.
  23. Araris Valerian
    I have maybe 1/2 of a village read. On Aman for voting me.
  24. Araris Valerian
    I would say the connection is quite a bit more distant than that. My vote on you was prompted by your discussion with Stick, but not your vote. I don't have a real reason to read Stick village and it won't be the end of the world if she gets exed today. Honestly I was mostly concerned about your thoughts on Alpha.
  25. Araris Valerian
    I’ll swap from DeTess to Archer. I’m not a fan of the “returning player” thing in a 9-player game, since we don’t really have the leeway to not follow our suspicions. I don’t feel comfortable flagging that as AI, and IDK whether that’s a tactic e!Stick would use anyways. Anyways, Archer feels like he’s being too defensive of other players for C1. His exchange with Stick rubbed me wrong mostly for this reason I think.
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