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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    *Is actually just a Competent Tineye*
  2. Araris Valerian
    I'm trying to think of something clever to say in response to this and coming up pretty blank, which unfortunately seems to imply I was correct. But perhaps I should withhold judgement until my (un)timely death occurs.
  3. Araris Valerian
    This is half correct.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Operation NK and Conversion Immunity is currently very successful. Operation Survive Today has a forecasted success rate of 50%. I do stand by my statement and the further thought that discussion distinguishing between exeing the two hostile factions is a waste of time that elims of either flavor can hide behind. I'm thinking that Aman has been reluctant to kill me earlier than absolutely necessary in the recent games where he's been elim and I'm village, so I'm hesitantly reading him village for voting me. I give him enough credit to subvert that of course, but I'll be hopeful for now. Archer, in my memory, has no reluctance toward killing me regardless of his alignment. As for conversions, I'll note that historically I have a horrendous win rate in MRs, so nobody should want me on their team.
  5. Araris Valerian
    I'm mentally preparing myself to be traumatized when it turns out we aren't teamed again. What about me? I'm a better elim than Mat . In reality GMs have different approaches to building elim teams. If you get a bunch of newer players then you can boost them with roles or an extra teammate. If you have all veterans maybe they don't have quite as strong roles. The main thing to note is that most SE GMs are abject trolls and will do their best to punish you for distro-guessing, especially during the early part of a game. Well, sort of. Each PM by definition has 2 players, meaning the Tineye can't tell for certain who didn't make one, and the PM scan comes before creation, so it is useless C1. After that, with 2 players dead there is a lot of free space for people to claim why they don't have a PM. I don't like this. There's not really any practical way to distinguish between the two alignments, so this feels like the sort of theorycrafting an elim would do to look village, rather than an actual villager strategizing how to win the game. DeTess. Welcome back!
  6. Araris Valerian
    I’ll sign up as Read My Role, in the hopes that I actually do. A rather forgetful fellow that leaves notes on everything to help with his memory.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Well, if you've watched any of the previous games, you know that people on MU like to post a lot. But most of it is fluff, so don't get overwhelmed. Taking advantage of their ISO feature will help a lot in this regard. One nice thing about the high activity is that you can engage back and forth with other players regularly, which we don't tend to do much. You'll also may end up with some pretty aggressive/hyper-competitive players in your game, so be prepared for that and consider how you want to potentially engage with it. The early game voting will probably not look like it does around here, but that won't matter past D1. I bequeath to you the Porch of Chilling, for when things aren't going great and you just need to sit and break for a while. You can also borrow my stash of Honorblades if you need to do some stabbing .
  8. Araris Valerian
    Yup, that’s what I said in 2014 . I’ll sign up as Cloudy Copper.
  9. Araris Valerian
    @Telrao, I sincerely apologize for not killing you. That was rude and unforgivable as an introduction to a new SE player, and I promise to you the sweet release of death the next time I have the opportunity.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Well, it was going fine until Wiz did his last-minute vote move . Then I was mildly terrified during rollover. I do think that Rushu being alive was generally a village asset and that bussing TJ D1 was a valid play.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, this was a weird game of failed bussing which ended up working out. Good to know that I’m trustworthy even without that
  12. Araris Valerian
    Good game everyone! Thank you to @Matrim's Dice for boosting my elim percentages, and to @StrikerEZ for IMing. Also a special thanks to my teammates @The Wandering Wizard and @|TJ|, I had a lot of fun being elim with you guys this game.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Like I said before, he scanned me as regular N1, but I don't think there is any way for that to be verified.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Yes . I mean, at this point, unless you think the team is Wiz/Telrao/JNV then at least one of the elims had 2 votes in the D1 tie. Cord!JNV suggests that is highly improbable.
  15. Araris Valerian
    I'm not convinced that the elims were capable of doing more D1, in the sense that it is extremely likely that one of them was involved in the D1 tie, and it would have been pretty easy to break said tie, which didn't happen. So either by playstyle or activity, I think we are looking at an elim team that just isn't able to exert thread influence. And Wiz did make a move to save you at the end of D1, though it still bothers me that he didn't switch onto me, TJ, or Sart. It's possible that e!Wiz wasn't entirely aware of the VC at that point?
  16. Araris Valerian
    Okay. Hmm. I mean, I think JNV has to be village. It seems like this was a ploy on to stop you from sending in the NK? I’m confused how this makes sense from JNV’s perspective. But it doesn’t really seem to have anything AI in it since what JNV asked for was impossible anyways. My current take is that the elims could feel pretty comfortable with Cord not making a kill and potentially ending the game, so Ash or Huio’s action wouldn’t be too big of a deal in any case. I’m not sure why the elims would leave v!Lopen alive though, since that is a pretty significant threat to them; a roleblocked NK would give one of them away and push exlo back further. And it’s clear that if Ash is village that he didn’t block the NK because Elandera is village. I don’t think there’s a world where it makes sense that JNV and Ash are teamed and lying about JNV’s role? I feel like we would have gotten a counterclaim by now if that were the case.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I'd say that scheme makes me think Ash is more sketchy, not less, for going along with that.
  18. Araris Valerian
    Didn’t you get roleblocked already though, on N2? So you couldn’t have been blocked again last night. Also, how did you set up this scheme? Did you just happen to have a PM with Ash up? It is nice to know you are Cord though, that narrows things a little.
  19. Araris Valerian
    Speak for yourself . I’ve got two-thirds of an elim team guess, and I’ll probably be dead before I have to figure out the third one.
  20. Araris Valerian
    I do think if Ash is elim then Wiz is a likely teammate. I don’t have any particular reason to think he’s Huio over you/Telrao/JNV though.
  21. Araris Valerian
    I think 2 out of Lopen/Rushu/Huio are elim, and at least 1 of Lopen/Huio is elim. Kas scanned me as roleless, but I don’t think he claimed so that might not be worth anything. For now my vote is on Ash, but we need everyone to chime in (and vote!) today. I guess we don’t know if the kill was Cord or the elims. Cord couldn’t have been blocked by Ash, but I feel like Cord would have killed Ash if they sent in a kill. In either case, I think Cord should claim, since we are almost certainly at exlo, so a village NK won’t be of any value to us.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Oh yeah. For some reason I was thinking one of them needed to be village, but it's really that it just doesn't make sense if they both are. I will say that if Ash and TJ are both elim then Wiz likely isn't.
  23. Araris Valerian
    It's hard to say. Ash managed to survive D1 without ever being out of the lead in votes, and then we haven't successfully revisited him. He also hasn't really made a convincing attempt at solving the game. But you could say similar things about TJ. I'm still leaning village on you, which makes me not as happy about TJ's vote last cycle. But mechanically, I feel like Rushu is more of a village role and Lopen is more of an elim role. With this small of a game, the elims losing a player to the NK would be pretty devastating, and the roleblock is actually more useful to them than Huio would be, since I'm pretty sure most of us have been considering a v!Cord e!Huio world. So when a player survives a NK, it becomes pretty likely that they are elim (Just like in the AG ). But a roleblocked kill doesn't implicate anyone on their team. I do have a PM with TJ as of D3, so it's possible he'll say something in there that will convince me one way or the other.
  24. Araris Valerian
    I'm pretty sure either TJ or Ash is elim. If not, that would mean the village has all 3 of Rushu, Rsyn, and Lopen. I extremely doubt that the elims have both Cord and Huio (we almost certainly lose if this is the case), so your proposed elim team gives the village 4/5 roles in the game. The only possible way that is balanced is with e!Cord, who I'm fairly sure isn't in your list there. Could be wrong about that though. I'm thinking one of TJ/Ash is elim, either you or Telrao is elim, and then I'm honestly not sure who the last one could be. Elandera didn't really do a whole lot last cycle, despite giving me a good first impression. Wiz has kinda worn out the benefit I've given him from his D1 voting, and while I still think he doesn't pair well with TJ or Alpha, he could be on a Wiz/Telrao/Ash team. I've never been any good at reading JNV, he's just kinda sitting in a dead spot in my analysis. I think I'm inclined not to vote for him though.
  25. Araris Valerian
    Hmm, I disagree. I think elims tend to be more defensive and unwilling to accept that the village has actually found them, or say that whatever reason a villager is using is actually something that should be NAI. So it’s actually the nature of your response, rather than the tells themselves, that is pinging me wrong. In regards to you being LHF, sure, but how do we tell the difference between an elim jumping on something versus a villager actually detecting an elim? That’s what discussion and back-and-forth are for. Which is the whole thing I was trying to encourage with my previous post, as opposed to people just dropping a vote and leaving. My take on D1 is that Ash and Xino were the only players actually under pressure. Usually trains consolidate by the end of D1, with the exed player having around 4 votes, and anything less than that is pretty safe. This is something you (and everyone else) are free to disagree with, but it’s how I’m currently understanding the cycle, and why I disagree with your response to JNV. Lastly, on reread my previous post was worded more strongly than I intended, and I apologize. I’m not trying to attack your character, I just don’t find your play thus far to be convincingly village.
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