Claincy

Well, dang. Not surprising that we didn't get a spiked I suppose, still I would guess that Vizzini rioted Dane to vote for Mac. With Joe soothing Mac that would explain all the vote differences. I DIDN'T GET SOOTHED Wooooo! : P ahem. It's a nice change, a pity that I was voting for the wrong person.

A noble effort on the horneater name!

Yeah that doesn't clear you Vizzini. Even if you don't have any strong ideas it really helps for you to post your suspicions and join in the vote. The simple truth is that if you don't help the discussion a good amount and join in the voting then you are doing very little to help us and we lose little if you die. I haven't quite decided if I'm going to vote for you or not just yet but if you do live through this you may want to consider if you want to be more active in the votes. I'll vote before sleeping, once I've thought a little more. I'm not going to have a go at Vizzini and then not vote myself, don't worry Edit: OK. The evidence against Vizzini isn't quite strong enough to get me to vote for him, quite. Sorry Mac, but you come in as being the most suspicious here. It would also help, now that we have got a good discussion value out of today, to move away from a multi-way tie.

Hope you feel better soon. Regarding the Mabi thing. Saying I "kept trying to force the vote towards Mabi" is overstating things somewhat. I suggested that Mabi was one of those who we had any reason to be suspicious of the first day and voted accordingly. The second day I voted Mabi, less out of a belief that she was spiked and more because, as I explained at the time, we wanted to be wary of bandwagoning and someone needed to set up another option and Mabi still seemed vaguely suspicious (thoroughly paraphrased). And...that's it. Mabi hasn't really acted any more suspiciously since that first day and other people have. Which is why I didn't vote for or cry against her yesterday or today. Regarding the statistics thing, well, if I was a spiked, both Asp and I using the stats as a barrier to hide behind would not be a great idea. As another note a good proportion of the stats I have figured I did because someone asked me for them. *shrug* @Dane. That does make sense. I'm not quite ready to vote yet though Wark does seem moderately suspicious I'm not convinced and we still have time. SO. Vizzini care to explain why you haven't voted till today? Yay, Meta is back!...Expresses suspicion of me in his first post....yay, meta is back : P

This game is crazy. 3 spiked dead already; 1 a mistborn, 1 a seeker, and all the villagers who are dead are powered; a mistborn, a seeker, a connector and a smoker. Fortunately we can withstand a war of attrition like this far better than the spiked can. The two lurched attacks are really helping us out here. Personally I think there is a good chance that at least one of the remaining spiked is one of the more active posters here. This isn't a vote, but Dane would you care to explain why the only time you have voted thus far was to jump on the Asp killing and that was after he revealed himself as spiked? Clan grumbled, "There was no need to make so much noise o'er a spiked gettin' killed, no need ta wake me up, I woulda been just as happy to find out in the mornin'. No consideration fer the elderly."

These are fun to listen to The new mic is nice. Of course I won't mention that, I will never mention that, oh, wait.

It would be of both yes. That it would grant feruchemy is the most common theory. There is some discussion of it in these threads. And probably many others. But I need sleep and those were the ones I could find quickly.

Ouch, Mistborn for a mistborn it seems. Nice to know there were 2 of those, would have been nicer to find out about Bartson a different way though :/ Clan slumped in a chair in the inn, wishing for a drink but lacking the energy to get himself one. Getting woken by screams and cries each night made it storming hard to get a proper rest. Just when things were going so well, Bartson had to go get himself killed. First Cyrus, then Asp, now Bartson. How many rusting mistborn are there in this village! And when will they learn that they aren't invincible. Who do these tineyes think they are, just cos Bartson's 'ead doesn't mean they ought ta be vandalizing 'is property. Murdered this very night, and they're already defacin' his inn.

Clan found himself under suspicion. He couldn't say he was surprised, despite his best efforts to help he had, thus far, failed to successfully identify the spiked. He doubted he would be around much longer, spiked or no, but he would spend the time he had left doing his best to ferret out the spiked. Well, things are going remarkably well. I am not the connector ferring, if I was I would be voting a lot differently to how I have been. Either a soother is targeting me or, far more likely, just defending Mabi. I kinda suspect Mabi is a soother. Spiked? Maybe not, but rather likely a soother. Regarding those suspicious of me, well fair enough to be honest. If you look back through my posts though, each of my votes and arguments have been logical and aimed at getting us the information we need despite at times knowingly putting myself in a suspicious situation by doing so. Given that, I think that seeking me is a slight waste of a round, however I can definitely understand the desire to do so, and given our early spike kills we do have a bit of leeway to play with now so long as the spiked don't find our seeker. Still reading words of radiance, still not posting much, you should be grateful I'm on at all ; )

I'll do 2 sets here, 1 with the assumption that there are 2 emotional allomancers in the game, 1 with the assumption that there are 3. Again I will also assume 5 spiked and for simplicity go by initial probability rather than deal with revealed roles altering the probabilities. So the probability of the spiked having at least 1 emotional allomancer would be 1-the probability of them having none. Which is: 1 - 17 choose 3 / 22 choose 3 17 choose 3: 17!/ 3!14! 17*16*15/3*2 17*8*5 = 680 22 choose 3: 22!/ 3!19! 22*21*20/3*2 22*7*10 = 1540 so 1 - 680/1540 860/1540 ~56% that the spiked have at least one emotional allomancer Assuming there are only 2 (which I think is less likely) 17 choose 2 17!/ 2!15! 17*16/2 17*8=136 22 choose 2 22! /2!20! 22*21/2 11*21 = 231 1 - 136/231 95/231 ~41% that the spiked have at least one emotional allomancer I voted for Mabi to set up the possibility of a voting war as such that we could gain highly valuable intel from. However it appears that either the spiked want us to kill Aspren or they have given up out of hopelessness. I will leave my vote as is for now in case people do decide to take that route while I am asleep which is highly doubtful, and also because at this point changing my vote would achieve nothing of consequence, we are marginally more likely to gain information if I leave my vote as is, than if I switch to Aspren. Enjoying Words of Radiance, wish I had time to just power through it, stupid life getting in the way : P Apologies for not posting any grumpy old man rp, I really need some sleep for tomorrow.

They couldn't find out for certain that way, Gamma being high-profile could have been lurched by someone else given his high profile. They could make a good guess however they wouldn't know for certain through that method. So you just confirmed what Gamma's role was for everyone However, it was a likely bet already and we know for certain that the spiked are already aware of it regardless of who is telling the truth here. Man this feels very familiar. As we don't know who this other "seeker" is we can't vote for them. So we don't have a specific person to vote for, but at the same time we really want to have the vote at least have at least some basic potential for a vote to go either way, avoiding the bandwagoning and giving us some information. Someone needs to start this for it to happen, so I will vote for Mabi again as still the most suspicious known player other than Asp and potentially Gamma. Honestly I'm not sure which way to go on this yet. Not knowing anything about the other "seeker" makes it very hard to judge. Oh, and words of radiance just arrived, so I now have that consuming my time too.

Welcome to the forum cybera! We shall take on the solemn duty of trying to entertain you Have you read all Brandon's other books? Somewhat jealous, my copy of words of radiance hasn't arrived yet : (

Welcome to the boards Dalinaut! The ultimate list of questions has a good number of unanswered questions. Otherwise browse the Events, Signings and Stalkings board. A number of people have asked for questions there. Also, I'm jealous. He doesn't really come to Australia much : (

Welcome to the site Vizier! Glad to have you join us Bunny! Pancake! Ahem.... So you haven't been able to read Mitosis Have you read the rest?

Welcome SuperSneaky, glad to have you join us! Yeah you've found the right place. So have you just read stormlight archive and warbreaker? I am being uncreative with questions again : (

Glad to have you with us TheAnimistSeer! Hoid-chasing is fun! Which totally has nothing to do with why we are called 17shard Personally I highly recommend mistborn the most, but all the others are awesome too. Someday we will catch him! But yeah, we will have no idea what to do when we find him.

Welcome to the forums both of you! So have you both read all his books? If not which ones? Which is your favourite? Yup, most standard intro thread question ever, oh well.

Glad to have you back They all died and it's all your fault!...Clearly : P

We've all been assuming that one of the tineyes is spiked and the other is a villager, but my curiosity got the better of me and I crunched a few numbers to work out just how unlikely it was that both would be spiked, or that both would be villagers. Most people didn't know, and Clan tried to forget, but he had some moderate skill with numbers. The question of the chances of the tineyes being spiked was niggling at him so he sat down, pulled out some paper, and got to work. There has to be a couple of assumptions here. First is that roles are all completely randomly assigned, no work can be done without this assumption. Secondly is the number of spiked, the common understanding is that there could be 4-6. As a quarter is about normal, dividing 22/4 gives 5.5 so I'll round it down and take 5 as it is the middle value anyway. (I'll be using nCr here.) The odds of both being spiked: 5 choose 2 divided by 22 choose 2: (the number of ways of selecting 2 spiked to be tineyes from 5 spiked/the number of ways of picking 2 tineyes from 22 players) 5!/(2!*(5-2)!) 5!/2!3! 5*4/2 = 10 22!/2!20! 22*21/2 11*21 = 231 so 10/231~4% So not very likely at all. Both tineyes being villagers: 17 choose 2 divided by 22 choose 2 17!/2!15! 17*16/2 17*8 = 136 so 136/231 ~59% One villager, one spiked: 100-59-4= 37% I have cut off decimal places as it isn't really worth it. So in summary: The chance that both are spiked: 4% The chance that both are villagers: 59% The chance of 1 spiked & 1 villager: 37% There's the odds, I am fairly certain my math is correct. Not quite what I was expecting *shrug*, figured I might as well share though. Clan nailed his findings to the inn then went to bed. "Tha's enough ruddy math for one day...or the week for tha matter."

Whispering is fun! No (but sort of, they will be involved.) yes, yes, yes, yes, no. Sorry that I'm being so secretive about it. I'll try to have a draft of the rules finished and post it here by the end of the week Actually sorry, partly because I really don't want to distract from the current game I'll hold off posting too much of it for now. I'll just post mechanics that I want to get some feedback on. Sorry.

Huh, well awesome! It seems I was wrong about who was more suspicious, I guess I am glad I was now. Though I expect I will be under some suspicion for voting as I did. Oh well, it was the logical choice at the time. Aside from that that went very well. A spiked dead, some information based on voting and a hint as to what must be a soother or connector or maybe a rioter. Peng, how long will the night last? Clan grunted with satisfaction as Erendi's shirt was removed, revealing his spike.

I think I will vote for Mabi. Here is my logic. We don't lose much if Erendi dies, certainly, but we don't stand to gain much either. The biggest reason for the lynching at this stage of the game is to gain information and frankly Erendi's guilt or innocence will give us very little information on anyone else being spiked or innocent precisely due to his inactivity. To get information we are actually better off lynching someone who has at least posted so we can look at what they said and how other people responded to them. Thus far Mabi seems slightly more suspicious than Erendi does. So we stand to lose only a little bit more, we get more information, and we are more likely to hit a spiked. That balances to a vote for Mabi in my opinion. Besides that, with Mabi and Erendi's votes close and further above everyone else any soothers or rioters amongst the spiked will only be able to modify the vote to hit one of those two, our two primary suspects. If they do effect the vote then we learn even more without really losing much and if they don't effect the vote we also get more information from this. So getting a few votes onto both can work in our favour. First day lynching always makes me sad, it is necessary, but it makes me sad : (

He answered an aluminium question?! Interesting, though not surprising. As in, the answer isn't surprising, that he answered it is more so Come on, if alu doesn't even give an atium shadow, inquisitors totally cannot see it.

Just a comment. Some people here are trying too hard to make the roles fit with the existing roles. I would suggest that you don't, having new and different roles can be far more interesting. Sure it can be nice to have some roles similar to what people already know, it makes things easier. But definitely don't feel the need to force powers to fit existing roles. Ignore existing roles, think about what that power does, then translate it into a new role altogether if at all possible (This is intended as a suggestion not a criticism, to be clear.) Yes I will be taking my own advice, things will be quite different in the Nalthis game. There will be a couple of roles that feel familiar though.The basic rules won't be too drastically changed, but the roles will be quite different.

Clan saw Alon sitting to the side. "Well e took is time but I spose e asn't run off then. Not enuff reason to kill im then." "E's still suspicious though. Up all nigh' readin at his age? 'taint natural." I have retracted my vote for Alon. I won't vote for anyone new for now, I should be awake again before the day finishes and I will vote then on who I think is the most suspicious. Personally I don't think Meta is spiked, there is potential reason to be suspicious of him sure, but what he has said so far makes him seem more likely to be a villager than a spiked to me. Regardless though we do need to avoid herd behaviour, it makes it too easy for a spiked to direct the vote. It doesn't have to be a spiked directing us either, we could simply be following a villager who made a mistake, the end result would be the same.