James Brafin

Burnt I feel like this is convoluted, but If Burnt!Elim, this clears Dannex for certain, which then clears Greys, right?

Edit: I have to leave for a class right now, so I'm locking in. Okay? No more changing. This is my move. I feel like given what I know and believe this makes the most sense to me.

AHHHHH

Dannex

3 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

I don't like this

I'm feeling inclined to do a vote

But feel bad potentially screwing with the plans of those I read village because I mess up a lynch because I've not paid attention to things.

But I don't get this. If we think dannex is village why is it necessary to kill him? Can we not achieve the same but acting on assumption?

We're hoping to clear 2 with this, or ascertain that the last Elim is between Devo and me.

@Matrim's Dice, @Breaker, what would the two of you rather do?

Just now, Dannex said:

Well, can we at least tie myself with Burnt then?

Does anyone see harm in this? Because I don't

Yes, I thought we were doing a double to end things. I was getting ready to switch when I saw this post actually.

Devo Dannex (To be clear this is as I am agreeing with Gears that the single is better than the double)

4 minutes ago, Dannex said:

True, but if there are 2 Elims left, I’d probably have a pool of 3-4 suspects, I wouldn’t only have 2 Elim reads. 
 

Unrelated, but @James Brafin and @Illwei, why are you guys voting Devo? I was under the assumption that you both read me as village. So if I’m village, the conclusion was that both Greys must also be village, right? And Devo is Grey? 

I was hoping to double with Devo and I to clear you once and for all, but Gears makes a strong point -- if we all agree that Dannex+Devo or Burnt are mechanically the only two options, then this tells us pretty simply how we move forward while minimizing town kills

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You’re right, and I’m frustrated by that because I can’t think of what else it could be. Everyone has a billion reasons to be village-read and I don’t know what to do.

James Brafin

The Unknown Order

Their unreasoned jump on you doesn’t make sense to me. At least I had reasons.

Again, there is no situation where I’m evil. I was attacked. I pushed for both elim exes. I’m looking for reasons to shoot you because I don’t know where else to go. I can tinfoil whatever I want though, it’s not going to convince anyone.

Just to be clear: The Devo exe makes zero sense assuming James is good for what he did with his actions. Devo did the same, but more so. I repeat. Zero. Sense.

Hmmm.
I want to trust Order, but I don't know that I have a reason to now that you point it out. I really haven't seen anything quantitative from them all game.

I'd... I'd be more okay with this than a lot of the others actually. Only problem is that it takes two cycles, which means a free kill tonight, unless y'all hit me too. Still, I'm willing.

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Did everyone ignore me?

I feel like everyone simply ignored my post. Like I'm a 'lost cause' or something.

Please, I get you disagree, but at least consider what I said instead of pushing ahead with exeing Devo. That's what I don't understand.

You say James must be good because he didn't save Quinn.

Well, Devotary didn't save Quinn either. 

In fact, they actively manipped to get Quinn exed.

James did nothing.

You're just tunneling at this point for no good reason. You're looking for reasons for me to be Elim, when this is a situation where Occam's Razor applies. It's not even worth arguing at this point: If I tampered Quinn, it would have been clear that I was elim, but since I didn't tamper Quinn... it's also clear that I'm Elim? Come on. It's just confbias. It's not worth arguing with you at this point because you're exactly right; it's incredibly tinfoily, it assumes that the Elim team is playing three steps ahead of Town.

I repeat this here, should we see no change I'm 100% willing to switch here and get shrekked when Devo does. And I will also repeat, when we both drop as village, please please please start questioning Dice and their motivations. We've gone beyond town!tunneling at this point. You're looking for reasons to get me shot.

@Gears I am only marginally happier with Dannex than I am with Devo. If you can get others on board with the shot I'm down. Otherwise, I'm happier doing a double tonight.

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In hindsight, I'm actually really happy with that reads list  maybe that's why I was attacked. (I didn't think the reasoning on Quinn was NAI. And maybe I was right, cause she was evil!)

...We're bonded :P. Did everyone miss that part?

I'm writing a James post that should drop in about an hour and will more coherently say my thoughts. So, someone else post  

I hope you have one coming for Devotary too, considering that they are also a Grey and should be under just as much suspicion.

The very fact that you're tunneling me so hard and refusing to look at anyone else makes me more and more suspicious. The more I read it, the more it feels like you just want there to be an Elim in the Greys, rather than having any reason to believe that there is one.

While I'm here, Devotary to prevent a tie. I'll keep a close eye on things and tamper wherever I need to. I really really hate this, but we 100% don't need to lose four people and I'm willing to drop tonight as well if it gives the rest of town some peace of mind. When we both flip town, y'all should really be taking a long, hard look at Dice and Archer. (For those of you who are uncomfortable with a tie here, I'd like to remind you that even if we both are Village, as I am confident we are, that takes you from 10/2 to 7/2 to 5/2 to 3/2 if there's another misshrek cycle 5 and cycle 6; as opposed to going from 10/2 to 8/2 to 6/2 to 4/2. You're at exlo either way in the same number of turns, but you enter with a great deal more information in the former situation because the pool is smaller. That's part of makes me ok with dying here; I know that even when my suspicions are proven correct I'm shifting Town back to odds with my death which gives Town an edge going in.)

17 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Hey, James. Mind responding to me? Just the @ part.

Oh yes, yeah I guess that's fine. I prefer to keep these things strictly impersonal but do what you gotta.

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Devotary (2): Archer, Illwei
James (2): Matrim's Dice, Order
Matrim (1): Breaker
Dannex (1): Gears
Burnt (1): Dannex
Gears(1): Devotary

Any particular reason for thinking that Dannex is village while I'm evil?

I don't think the elims would be sacrificing a warder life right when they're going to be losing their third member, so not voting Matrim. James was around at rollover C1 to have purposefully removed a vote that would force the shrek to hit elim Lotus without hitting Dannex, who I still don't think is evil.

We know why Quinn didn't vote in self-preservation. She said so in blue text. There were three votes on Dannex, only two on her making her not in obviously fatal danger, and she couldn't be around for the remaining hour and forty minutes of the cycle.

I'll vote for Gears here, mostly for the vote patterns and continued push for Dannex to die.

Oh guys
On one hand, Devotary doesn't vote Matrim because he's an elim, doesn't vote me because he thinks I'm town, then shades me hard by saying "Here's why one of the Greys could be scum" and then voting a different warder to tie it at three votes again, which screams to me as being aggressive posturing; 
On the other, they have the wrong number on the Elims, which I'm pretty sure is a townslip, but could also be Schum trying to build cred?
I really don't know what to do. I really don't.  Someone help

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*Sigh* I don’t think I’m deluded for considering all possibilities. I’ve been kind of distracted today but not that much. Manip is weird.

Not Archer. He is my Aes Sedai and a Red and I doubt the elims have two.

And suddenly you’re fine with Connie??? What happened to doubting the WGG??? 

I'm not sure what I was at when I said that -- I've been kind of focused on a paper all night, and not really paying attention. Connie's not ideal, but after the whole Dannex and the WGG thing their posting has felt unhelpful and lackluster to me, which doesn't make me feel great. Also their posting is reminding me a lot of Lotus' posting, which really really bothers me. Still, that may just be an activity thing, and I'm reading into it too much

So I rescind my statement, I'd be happiest shreking in Burnt, Dice, Archer, and Connie, in that order. I'd do a Dannex lynch if you all absolutely made me. I really don't support a Devo-Only lynch, so if y'all take out Devo you'd better take me with you, so if my theory is correct and we are both Village you don't all waste another day jumping down my throat and just hand the game to the Elims.

4 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

It’s 5am, and I should be asleep, but on the early game “townslip”, which I agree is noteworthy @Illwei, I see two possibilities. The first, and likeliest I think is that it is genuine - certainly that was my initial read of it, from which I’ve village read James so far this game. That said, knowing him @Breaker, how likely do you think James is to make such a play given their off-site experience?

Gut tells me not so likely - if he was going for such a move, my feeling is that he would also try to underplay his experience.

Breaker doesn't know me from playing Mafia offsite, unfortunately, so it's not a very helpful question -- unless you just mean personality, but I don't know how that factors in? So maybe it's helpful, and I don't realize it? Heck if I know. And I'm not going to WIFOM ya, so :/

1 minute ago, Dannex said:

I do not like where the vote is going rn, it’s too spread out, and I read almost all of the candidates as Vil. Only exception is Devo, who I could see as being Elim, but as we said, if I’m Vil, we can’t really have an Elim Grey. And I obviously know I’m village, so I have to read Devo as Vil too. I guess I’ll vote Burnt, as I can’t really see a better candidate.
Maybe we should take a closer look at the less actives. I can see Connie as being Elim. Maybe. 

Making a note of this for later, since I'm explicitly not in this post. I'm confident you're town, Dannex, but I can't just not pretend that you could have nice, deep, warm pockets.

I don't have time to dive tonight but I can try tomorrow between bekfast and classes.

At this point, I've got the feeling it's best for me to not engage Dice; he's either really deluded town or a blatant Elim, and I feel like that will be obvious at some point.

@Illwei, @Dannex, what's our actual plan? I trust you two the most out of pretty much everyone here, and we need to have something set in stone here. Actions, directions, you name it. I haven't heard anything about sweeping Devo and I with one town kill, so I guess that's off the table (which is fair, it's a bold play. Still, if nothing else happens, I'd like to pursue that path.) I'm not a fan of Dannex being the lynch here (as I will say multiple times) but at this point their PR has pretty much outlived itself; We know all the roles at the table and who has them. I'd like to leave them alive though, since they are lock-town -- it forces the Elims to waste perfectly good kill, and may be more beneficial to us than they would like...

Barring taking out Devo and I today, I'd like to Shrek in Burnt, Conden, Archer; I don't feel we know enough about Orlock to justify hitting them, and despite Gears and Dice tinfoiling really hard, I don't think there's solid evidence against either of them to warrant one of them (especially since at least Dice, maybe Gears still have their defense last I checked). If y'all will really make me do Dannex, I will, but I really think that the longer we can keep Dannex alive the more useful he is to us, as even having one confirmed and alive Town is a great benefit.

I will point out that Burnt's choice in a search last eve is questionable. We already knew that Dannex had searched me, I don't know why she felt the need to do it again, but maybe that's just Burnt? I dunno.

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

^This is why I’m still voting for James. I don’t feel fine about clearing both Grey’s when the reasoning to do so came from a Grey.

Also, I find it interesting Orlok continually is reading me as evil  

To be fair, I’m starting to feel that way too. If I were Elim, and I saw the town!Brown get outed day 1, I’d do everything in my power to make sure they went down via the Shrek C1 and C2. Brown is one of the most powerful roles in the game; this is non-negotiable. If you really, truly believe that I am Elim, than you also have to believe the player you have been defending all game is also an Elim.

And if you really don’t trust the Grey, you should be hitting at them both and clearing them from the table.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I only skimmed all that, but why exactly are we assuming both Greys are vil? Why couldn’t one Grey (vil) removed from Dannex because they trusted them, and one Grey (elim) to sow chaos and confusion?

And leave a Brown PR alive? My friend, you're edging into very tinfoily territory. They've had multiple opportunities to tie a vote and take down a town powerhouse with minimal losses, they should be taking them if they're not I'm honestly appalled.

Just now, Illwei said:

So are you arguing for Danex to be an Elim?

The people I would be fine with killing are

Gears, Order, Burnt, and Orlok. (Vil!Danex),
or
Danex, James/Devo, (Order, Orlok, Gears), (Elim!Danex)

I'm just not sure what you're arguing for, and I'm still going to go back and try and look at quinn.

I know that Quinn, Striker, Lotus: they all argued against Danex dying at first, and then eventually (except striker) got on.
Danex has moved back to Null for me atm. pending....me being able to think.

 

 

No no, I still think that Dannex is almost 100% town here. There's nothing to suggest otherwise. I'm just trying to think why the Elims would just leave a PR like that alive.

I think Burnt is ok (sorry Burnt <3); it tells us at least something -- if we know where Burnt sits, we know where to go next.

P-Edit: Hold up, @Archer you might want to check the thread. Unless you're telling me you think Dannex is also an Elim, we've locked both the Greys as Town with voting and role mechainics.

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Because this makes sense to me. Yeah.

My problem is I don't know how Danex would feel about bussing right now.

I think it's possible that the village has two vote manips. maybe. what would the Elims be given to balance that out though? another Warder?

Yeah, I think so. Also there has to be a reason that Dannex isn't dead yet. You don't just let a power role sit around like that. It's not particularly great, but it's strong as far as this game goes.

Edit:
Speaking of, here's what we know (working on the assumption that Dannex is Town):

Dice: Warder, ???
Gears: Warder, ???
Breaker: Blue Town, W/Gears
Archer: Red W/Dice
Order: Warder, ???
James: Grey Town, W/Order
Burnt: Brown (Disabled) ???
Illwei: White Town (I think) W/Conden
Dannex: Brown Town
Devo: Grey Town
Conden: Warder Town
Orlock: Blue (I think) ???
---
Liranil: Green Town 
Shard: Yellow Town
Ashbringer: Blue Town
Striker: White Elim
Quinn: Red Elim
Lotus: Warder Elim
???: Warder Elim
???: ??? Elim
Books: Red Town
 

Edit Edit: it just occurred to me that I'm assuming Illwei is town. Either that's right, or you've got really deep pockets. I don't think it's too far to assume though that there was one White Elim and one White Town.

1 minute ago, Dannex said:

Unless she assumed the Greys would save me again, so she knew she would die either way. Not voting me would cause more chaos as it would make people more suspicious, as you are now.

But the only way Quinn would assume the Greys would save you again is if they knew that both Greys were village. That means, again, that there can be no Grey Elims if you are town.

29 minutes ago, James Brafin said:

This all, however, has brought up a great point that I didn't even realize, which is that in a world where Dannex is town, we can't have a Grey Elim. If Devo is really a grey, as I believe (and I will readily confirm that I did not act on the Quinn shrek) -- they would have tied it so that we at least lost Dannex alongside Quinn. Same for D1; with an outed Brown, if there really was a grey Elim, there was plenty of opportunity to tie up that vote and take Dannex down too. So if Dannex is really town like Dice and Illwei (and I) believe, there cannot be a Gray Elim, as they would have manipulated the votes to shoot him on a tie rather than letting their Elim buddy ddie without a fight.

tl;dr If we believe 1 brown is Town and 1 is Elim, then our options are either (Dannex and James/Devo) or (Burnt, ???). Based on voting mechanics, those are the only two possibilities here.

@Illwei Tell me what you think of this.

1 minute ago, Gears said:

If not you, then who? Our other options seem to be for no reason. You were simply removed as an option, which I did not understand. I want to X you because there are reasons to X you. What are the reasons on the others? They are Grey Ajah? They were bonded to an elim? These are not good reasons. These are not the sort of reasons I consider to be valid. You have reasons. They don't, so tell me what I'm missing. Tell me who to vote and why. Give me a target.

I was talking about Quinn not self-pres voting on Danex. They could have tied it with an important villager, and if there is an elim!Grey, maybe saved Quinn.

So you're arguing that if Quinn and Dannex were Elims together, then Quinn votes Dannex, then the elim!Grey saves Quinn (Black/Red) instead of Dannex (Black/Brown)? That doesn't make sense -- you're trading a weaker power role for a stronger one, with no benefit. In fact, it only makes sense in one situation: the situation you just described.

It only works if you (Gears) know for certain that Dannex is Town.

That's not super clear, so let me explain.

Situation 1(Gear's Hypothesized Universe): Quinn!Elim + Dannex!Elim
Quinn Votes Dannex
Grey Tampers Quinn's Wagon
Quinn lives, Dannex Dies, Quinn survives.

Situation 2 (Parallel universe): Quinn!Elim + Dannex!Town
Quinn Votes Dannex
Grey Tampers Quinn's Wagon
Dannex Dies, Quinn confirms as Elim. Quinn gets 1 day.

Situation 3(Our world): Quin!Elim + Dannex!???
Quinn does not vote Dannex
Grey Tampers Dannex's Wagon
Quinn Dies

Those are the three universes that we have to work with. In Universe 1, the weaker role lives. In universe 2, Quinn wastes a kill and gets Dannex gone. In universe 3, where we are, we have what happened -- Quinn doesn't try and vote Dannex, and dies to protect(?) Dannex Except if the Elims had a Grey, they would have used it at that point to tie up the running and bring down Dannex, despite losing Quinn. My point is, the angle you are arguing at, that Quinn votes Dannex to save herself, only works if you, Gears, are arguing with the knowledge that Dannex is Town and not an Elim.

20 minutes ago, Gears said:

Liranil vote, no Quinn self-pres/tie vote [and elims would want tie, especially on vil!Brown], assumption of 1 elim Grey by nearly everyone leading to scenario where Danex is being saved by both parties, some more things I can't remember. 

Being right makes you look better. Besides, that was the consensus, with or without you.

The Liranil vote I'm not going to try to disagree looks weird -- but no weirder than my whole deal with Striker without context

It's could be odd that Dannex didn't vote Quinn -- except if what you say is true about relying on Grey, he was probably relying on Devo or I to protect him, as we have been doing so he didn't need to self-pres. Also, Dannex missed rollover, just like I did. You're Elim-Reading for something that's completely NAI.

The assumption of 1 Grey elim by everyone is 1) setup-speculation and 2) consistent, even when unnecessary.

This all, however, has brought up a great point that I didn't even realize, which is that in a world where Dannex is town, we can't have a Grey Elim. If Devo is really a grey, as I believe (and I will readily confirm that I did not act on the Quinn shrek) -- they would have tied it so that we at least lost Dannex alongside Quinn. Same for D1; with an outed Brown, if there really was a grey Elim, there was plenty of opportunity to tie up that vote and take Dannex down too. So if Dannex is really town like Dice and Illwei (and I) believe, there cannot be a Gray Elim, as they would have manipulated the votes to shoot him on a tie rather than letting their Elim buddy ddie without a fight.

tl;dr If we believe 1 brown is Town and 1 is Elim, then our options are either (Dannex and James/Devo) or (Burnt, ???). Based on voting mechanics, those are the only two possibilities here.

1 minute ago, Gears said:

Tie could be orchestrated, especially with assumption of 1 elim Grey. I don't remember your village playstyle. Your role is more important, especially if Lotus is an outbounded Warder. I have refuted these points several times in the past, and I have been ignored. 

To elaborate on this point: Danex is a more important elim than Striker. Danex knows they have a village vote manip on their side because of C1. They have an elim!Grey (and if they don't, they have 2 village vote manips on their side). Easy enough to break the tie. Besides, lies are possible. 

You know, I'm going to spin an old argument around for this. If you're so sure that Dannex is an Elim what evidence can you provide? No tinfoiling, I'd like some real solid evidence about the possibility of Elim!Dannex to discuss.

37 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Next four pages (and a couple of lectures) done. 200 posts so far, 1200 to go...

Clearly a lot yet to get through. I got quite a lot of pushback on my views on Dannex from my last post. Does anyone want to be kind and summarise why we now think he is a villager? @James Brafin I'd be particularly interested in your views given your early C1 megapost on him (#180 in my table).

Basically it comes down to voting mechanics

Dannex was willing to tie with Striker during the D2 Shrek, who we know is Elim. If Dannex was really Elim, he would have done everything in his power to stop that from happening, since it would have put Elim down 2 going into Day 3

40 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I spent the first three cycles saying you weren't evil and backed it up with my role. I didn't claim because I didn't want to reveal my role before it was necessary.

Who did you target C1? 4-3-2 on C3 doesn't seem like a wide wagon, all it would have taken was one vote manip to make Dannex die alongside Quinn.

I'd forgotten about C3 -- my phone died and I was at church/lunch, so I didn't end up being around for turnover. I was planning to stop one of the Dannex votes again but :/
Why don't you tell me who you targeted first

Edit: I have a proposal and a thought: Y'all are pretty sure that there is a Grey Elim between Devo and I, and that Burnt is Elim as well. So the optimal play is to just Shrek both Devo and I today with a tied vote, and then shoot Burnt tomorrow. You literally can't miss like that. Since I know that Devo is the Elim in this case, they will probably try and stop their own vote, so I'll target someone on my own wagon to ensure it stays tied up and we both go down. Sure, I die, but we get a suspected Elim in the same shot, and then you don't have to worry about Devo and/or I shenaniganing with the vote tomorrow..

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I've never really been suspicious of Burnt herself. Really just that she was bonded to Lotus. But, I think this: (Thanks, Devo)

does not represent an elim!Grey's actions. I do want to look back at the other manip though.

Edit:

Why you? Maybe because not everyone thinks you're evil  

Edit2: Apparently the only thing James did was remove a vote off you C1. @James Brafin, is this accurate?

I actually also targeted Ash Cycle 2, but didn't see a need on cycles 3 and 4 because of how wide the wagon was. We target the same person, which is why it showed one stop that vote.

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I've actually been swearing by a five-man elim team with Brown and Grey

ie; You and Burnt. With an outside chance of Devo.

That's interesting, since in your very first post you assumed there were four elims, and then never brought it up again.