James Brafin

Just now, Illwei said:

I mean,

I already

knew

that

but

yes

yes

I learned uh

something here

yes

...
 

I think 
I think I'm gonna go elsewhere for a bit

Just now, Illwei said:

I.

Did not see this.

I'm so sorry.

We learned something new though. Right? Right?

Just now, Illwei said:

If I start from the post after the opening it should be 42, 92...211?....and...610?... maybe? :).

I have no clue how you're counting post numbers :P.  I'm not enough of a simp to go back again

It doesn't matter, in the upper right-hand corner you can just jump to the post!

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

:|

.... gimme a sec. I'll update this one with the numbers

Thank you, I'm sorry I'm being picky. <3 Have a hug <3

OH WAIT FRICK YOU CAN JUMP TO THE QUOTE
I'M SO SORRY ILLWEI FORGIVE MEEE ;;;;;;;;;_;;;;;;;;;

Just now, Illwei said:

@James Brafin I went up to page 30 something in the thread. Might not have caught them all bc I only looked at posts where I mentioned Danex. I'm a Simp

These are the posts I found :/

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Extra bits at end- my early order + striker reads.

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Bonus item i found!: wierd Lotus read

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This is super helpful! Thank you! But I must ask again -- can you get post numbers?

5 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

I... jeez I'm discovering that I don't like QFs very much. This is actually exhausting. The exe was solidly for Dannex when I left to eat lunch five minutes before the end of the cycle and then when I got back suddenly it was for Ash. Or, rather, it was tied between Dannex and Ash. This is... disturbing to me, given this is the second time this has happened. Following along with this game is exhausting, both because of the large amount of posts (which are partly my fault, I know) but mainly, for me, apparently nothing happens during the first 23 hours and 55 minutes of the cycle actually matters. I just... y'know, I actually try with my posts analyzing votes and vote-manips and what people are saying but it's getting harder and harder to convince myself it's worth it when no matter how much evidence or how strong a case I can find against someone, in the last five minutes of the cycle the vote unexpectedly shifts to someone else on whom we have nothing. I mean, I know QFs are supposed to be more fun and chaotic but I'm finding this pattern really frustrating.

I'm... gonna put my thoughts on Dannex here, since I feel like if there isn't enough evidence to exe him now there never will be, and then I think I'm gonna go offline for a while.

- he is one of two confirmed Brown Ajahs in this game, and we assume the elims have at least one. 

- both cycles, whenever it's looked like he might end up exed, a countertrain on someone with virtually no evidence against them has miraculously sprung up in literally minutes, which is just... astonishing even on its own.

- after C1, two votes had been removed from Dannex, and after C2 one vote was.

- there are also all kinds of things in terms of reads that people have pointed out at various times: possible scumslips, risky plans, agressiveness... idk whether those are AI, and I thought they were vil-indicative for him if anything at the beginning of this game, but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that.

None of this in and of itself is enough to exe Dannex, but when you take it all together it shows a clear pattern. Just... please, think about it for a second instead of voting off of slight gut reads again. I'm... yeah, I'm gonna take a break from this for a little while. I'll probably be back before the end of the cycle, but...

This is the most blatant post, and I'll explain some of the (numerous) issues with it:

The countertrain that built up in the first round actually had some backing. Lotus's low posting and extremely suspicious behavior had some people concerned that they were low-activity Elim (like me). And the second wagon frames the whole affair in a particular way, when it's clear that it was Elim led by an Elim who was likely to die anyways. There's just as likely a chance that they are drawing these wagons to try and get us to Shrek Dannex, while they deal with bigger threats like Lil and Burnt.

It ignores the fact that Greys have little control over their votes, as has been discussed.

All of the things that we have pointed out we have all agreed are uncredible. They aren't good reasons to suspect him of anything, simply because they stem from meta behavior and confusion.

You talk about patterns here as well, which is a big red flag. Shrekking on a "pattern" rather than solid evidence is such a bad thing to do. It's framing all this stuff in such a way so that it looks bad, when it's actually not incriminating at all. It's super, super suspicious. I don't like it.

Village brown, and I'm pretty sure the Elim have 2 Wardens to compensate. In fact, I'd hedge my bets on Elims being White, Grey, Warder, Warder, Red/Yellow

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

I feel both of these reads.  

:0

*checks post count*

;-; can i help u find any things?

Oh please that would be great. Can you find where you've said similar things to what Dice just mentioned? These two:

• Has been very devoted to his reasonings instead of cooling it off slowly like an elim would
• Has been significantly more active than his elim game

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Seeeee I've been saying Quinn is sus :P.

I'm still on Lotus, but would switch to Quinn and have said that before.

• Has been very devoted to his reasonings instead of cooling it off slowly like an elim would
• Has been significantly more active than his elim game
• Has no teammatey-like connection with Striker, the opposite in fact (the thing about being fine with tying it with Striker)
• Something else

Also, what's wrong with me agreeing with Illwei's assessment of things? I'm not super great at coherently making analysis posts. I play by gut (and hopefully logic) and when I see reasoning I agree with, I agree with it.

Okay, we're here. I was checking for white-knighting. You've been giving me those vibes for a while, and I wanted to double-check that you weren't just piggybacking off of Illwei.

Problem is, these are all things I think Illwei said, but I don't remember. I need to go reread her posts I guess *cries*

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Yes, I'm a she. As for the rest, I've been "pushing a narrative", or rather a theory, that made sense to me. Given the voting patterns and the pattern of vote-manips around Dannex, I was pretty sure he was elim. But yeah, that theory just got "hammahed" as you so eloquently put it. What would you have me do, continue to maintain that Dannex is elim and must have been starting a train on Striker to clear up the suspicion on himself? I mean, if that's what it was then it worked, but I don't find that likely tbh. Especially since Dannex and I were elims last game, and he argued quite strongly against all of the busses that I suggested and carried out. It seems like a very unlikely strategy for him to spearhead.

I was getting ready to bring it up right as you changed that vote. The main problem I have is that you've been pushing a narrative that I don't think actually lines up with the game -- you're telling a story instead of providing evidence. I don't know about here, but on my home planet that's considered really suspicious.

(For clarification, that was a joke as mafiascum and this place are worlds apart. Ha ha me.)

2 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Aight but seriously, I forgot Archer was alive; I got them confused with Ashbringer. 

James, you can't swear to the cosmere; you haven't even started The Way of Kings.

Also, on a strictly interpersonal note, and I don't mean to be harshly critical, but that line feels a bit rude to Matrim, like they're doing something wrong and owe you recompense. 

still fwend doe

While I do think they are doing something wrong, they owe me nothing so I have changed my post to be less aggressive. Thank you for pointing it out.

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Explain

We've locked Dannex into Town now; Quinn can no longer push a narrative of Dannex being Elim.

Also, while I've got you, can you target her tonight if we don't kill her? Thanks.

Okay, so, I'm back after calling my parents to destress and just a few things:

Quinn, because I'm pretty sure she(?) has been pushing a narrative for a while now, and has now had to re-evaluate because it just got hammahed. There's other people, but we'll get there

I swear to all heck I know that interaction with the votes with Striker makes no sense; I promise it will soon. I also think Archer is more sus than you think, as he seems to be intentionally distancing himself from everyone, which is very Elim-motivated. I may need to just reevaluate them tho

Dannex I swear to the Cosmere I've thought you were Town for a while, that's not why I'm pushing this line of inquiry. This is something I've said multiple times. Chill, aight? Speaking of, @Matrim's Dice, I'd still like you to explain why you think/thought Dannex is town, ideally without using Illwei's arguments.

Imma gonna finish food and lurk, if I see anything I want to address I'll pipe up. Ping if you need something.

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Oh. Somehow I'd missed that. Yeahhhh I guess I don't really blame you. I managed to tunnel on Dannex... and then be convinced not to... and then tunnel on him again... (sorry Dannex!!!). 

Does this mean Burnt is an elim? I thought that was what that meant but then I also thought for sure Dannex was elim so idk how great my judgement on that is.

I'm pretty sure Town can have two brown. Again, I can't say more right this second, but it has to do with game mechanics and such. I'll get back to you.

IT LITERALLY SAYS DON'T @ ME IN THE POST YOU JUST QUOTED REEEEE
ahem

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

 - EoD2 he was A-Okay with being tied with striker. just read through that. that would have guaranteed at least one Elim death if they were both Elims.

This, here. striker+Dannex!elim makes no sense with this knowledge.
Also, this is a good reminder to me to deep-dive you tonight; My read on you has shifted pretty hard since I last talked to you.

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Warder be like "hit me baby one more time"

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Sorry, but your line is “not a chance, no!”

we’re currently singing a duet. 

The only duet you'll hear from me is to Elims: "Duet. Hit me. I don't fear death."

Just now, Illwei said:

I WAS WRITING A POST FOR THE PAST HOUR AND IT JUST DISAPPEARED WHO CAN I SHOOT

Oop, Illwei outs as the second green
(Also that sucks. Sorry that you lost your post.)

 I don't dance. I'm awkward and clumsy and never know what to do with my anything.

17 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

I think what was meant was actually "not having evidence for elim" is not the same thing as "having evidence for town", which was the state of affairs when that post was made iirc. I've been... kinda following along.

That's pretty much right on the money. It comes back to the bit about burden of proof I was at earlier -- you're starting at an assumption that Dannex is Town, which is something you shouldn't do in that situation. it's not enough to simply refute arguments -- you must then provide arguments of your own.

In essence, it's the burden of proof fallacy, reversed; Dice is making the claim that Dannex is town; Now prove it. And the answer can't be, "Well, there's no evidence that he's Elim, so he's town!" Because that doesn't offer any evidence to the fact he is Town -- the very thing that you require for your argument.
 

(To be clear, with Illwei's post, I'm now finally and thoroughly convinced he's town. I am not trying to prove he's Elim. That's not the point of this. Don't @ me.)

Judging by my parsing, I'm pretty sure Dice is about to be confirmed Warder, or there's a possibility of Red as well I think. That's moot.

p-edit: Well, there's no use hiding now. Hi, Order and I have a PM. We are bonded. How and why will come later.
Burnt, are you going to do Illwei as well? My latest guess for her is Grey or Blue, leaning Blue based on the Order of Actions bit.

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Due to the rules there likely will be, but my PM partner explained why my suspicion was unwarranted. 

I'm still not sure why you ever suspected me in the first place.
In fact, now I suspect you as I'm pretty sure I made it clear that I didn't want it outed that we were bonded.

26 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Can't keep up with my god-tier reads B).

Okaay. I am definitely not about to look back through all my posts for my reasoning. I have said it. I even said it in that post that you quoted when you said "there's nothing here" which makes me think you didn't read it.

 - He's pushing his opinions, even though they're controversial and what started all of this. something I don't see Elim!Danex doing, being self aware enough to know he has controversial opinions, and always gets attacked for them.

 - EoD2 he was A-Okay with being tied with striker. just read through that. that would have guaranteed at least one Elim death if they were both Elims.

Other things but they're all small. but what isn't? What do you want me to be able to say: I can see his Role PM?

But I have given reasons, and I've given them over and over again.

Since when did this become "ours", James? In last EoD you were against killing Danex too. you're making no sense here whatsoever.

I-

Well, okay.

Yes and no

In this case, you (in the general, but right now @james apparently), with the rest of 'em, are mistakenly attacking Danex. there's not much else we can do, except counter those points.

I countered your points. you can't turn around and then say "no u". You're making the argument and I showed you why I think you're wrong. come up with new points instead of throwing the same ones back at me.

Okay, I was responding to Dannex, but I'll get back to that thought. The first point you've made I assume is actually NAI. By being self-aware of it, it's not a tell, as he can do it as town or elim. So I don't think that argument holds much water.
The second point, however, is excellent, and not something I had considered. With what we know about alignments now, the chances of Dannex and Striker being buddies is very, very poor. That's great reasoning now for why Dannex should be considered town. It's not great reasoning for before D2, but it definitely is helpful for other reasons.

Edit: Oh, and in terms of ours: I mean ours, as in the players, as in "several of us, including myself, have brought forth points against Dannex." that group of people, specifically, not the people who think Dannex might be town or Elim.

Edit 2: To Dannex:

29 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Burden of proof logical fallacy. You’re making the claim that I’m Elim, burden of proof falls on you.

Also, Burnt. Because I doubt there’s another Brown, and I know I’m village, and I doubt both Browns are vil.

One: I made no such claim this day, if you'll notice. I have reasons other than suspecting you as being Elim for this line of reasoning.
Two: This is a bastardization of the Burden of Proof argument; I won't get deep into the debate here, but what it essentially boils down to is that we are starting at a preassumption of the null state here (i.e. Dannex is town) and that people who disagree need to provide evidence to the contrary. However. In debate, you shouldn't start with a preassumed null state. We should be starting with the null state that we don't know your alignment, and each side should be providing evidence to why we can successfully know your alignment. In other words, Dice is making the claim that you are Town; then he is under the burden of proof to provide evidence for this, just as I am to provide it for my views. That's what I'm looking for here.

Three.: After some setup parsing, I'm somewhat confident it's possible that the village has two brown. However, I can not share this with you at this time, but hope to share it later -- plus I need to do more parsing on the subject.

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But what is the difference there? If there are a bunch of reasons why someone isn't evil the only other option is that they're good.

Oh I'm aware

I think part of it is that we reach the same conclusions but you do it faster :P.

You haven't given us a bunch of reasons for why he's not Elim though, you've just discredited ours, which is fallacious. You're right in that Not elim = town, but evidence for not elim =/= evidence for town. You need to provide some sort of reason that Dannex might be town. You and Illwei keep telling us you read him as village -- but I don't think either of you have ever given us a single reason why.

Edit:
Another thought: If y'all are so sure he's town, you in particular are awfully ready and eager to just sheep town and shrek him. One minute the striker thing was "too much a red flag," the next it's "not overwhelming." So which is it? 

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What's the difference :P.

---

And am I the king of flopping votes? Listening to other people (perhaps to too great of lengths)? Sheeping Illwei this game?

All yeses. And honestly, I'm looking for any reason not to exe Dannex because I still read him as village. The Striker thing is weird... but not overpowering. Dannex, Lotus. 

Still willing to exe Quinn though.

It's subtle, I'll grant you that. But all Illwei has done so far, at least from what I can recall, is give us reason after reason that Dannex isn't elim; i.e. just discrediting any sort of evidence brought against Dannex.
They haven't, on the other hand, provided any reason to us to think that Dannex is town; Illwei hasn't provided any sort of reasoning that we should believe that Dannex should be town, rather than Elim.

Edit... To be fair, you haven't really, either, at least not in my memory. Would you like to share?

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Striker first pass through: just his posts.

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Post 1:

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- Guesses the Elim team numbers (rounds down? He's assuming 4, but we've already agreed on probably 5.)
 - Shades all the players with jumpy votes (I guess I could go back through and find them :P)

Post 2:

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Context: Burnt asks for a tldr, having just popped up.

The vote was on Connie/Danex I think at this point. Definitely Shades Danex more than connie, low low low key defense on connie? who knows.

Mentions James, doesn't give a read.

Post 4:

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 - Village on reading
 - Still incredibly Hedgy on Danex.
 - Makes a tie between Danex and Liranil. (NAI. If Danex was an Elim then Tie at least kills Liranil too. If Danex is Village then two village down.)

 

Post 5:

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 - Didn't realize that they voted on Ash last turn.
 - Village read on Danex

Post 7:

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 - Still village on Danex, Danex still in the lead

Post 9:

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Lotus gains traction, vote on Danex.

Post 10:

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More shade on Lotus voters

DAY 2:

Post 1:

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 - Backs up lotus living
 - Starts the concern on Connie's death.

Post 2:

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 - Still keeps a village read on Danex.
 - Suspicion on James based on Danex vote
 - Suspicion on Mat for CW
 - Suspicion on Illeri for CW
 - Doesn't want Burnt/Lotus to die

Post 3:

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Again, doesn't wanna kill Danex. this is getting boring :/

Post 4:

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wants to kill:
 - Illwei
 - James
 - Mat

Parrots my suspicion of ash but this sentence is irrelevant bc striker's ded ;-;

so...my...conclusion here disappeared. 

Uh..

Basically, I think lotus looks suspicious from this. I don't understand the end there. I'm trying to think.

In Day 1, Strike kept a wishy-washy village read on Danex all day. He tried to start up a CW multiple times, but once Lotus was the counterwagon, he suddenly was perfectly fine voting on Danex I...I really have no clue why this is.

Lotus is an Elim, Danex is Village
 - Striker Spent time trying to find a CW to avoid killing danex (pocketing danex)
 - They only have one/two warders, and want to keep them alive to protect their to have a second life in E/lo situations.
 - Striker then wanted to vote on someone else who wasn't lotus once something happened.

Lotus is village, Danex is an Elim
 - Striker didn't want to be on a village CW, for fear of suspicion
 - uh

I got a bit sidetracked sorry. Yeah. I had an original conclusion that made sense but I've been sitting here for an hour trying to remake this post :))))). so.

Overall he's been defensive of Lotus, Lotus/Burnt.

He was trying to start a CW on Danex both days, but...idk.

Coming out of this with sus on Lotus, but I think Danex/Lotus is V/E one way or another, and if Lotus flips E then I'm suspicious of Burnt.

Oh look Quinn posted. I had much better answers but they miraculously dissappeared so here you get this

If we assume the Elims have a brown Ajah, do we assume they value it? This point alone means nothing, and can also be applied to Burnt/Lotus.

Lotus? I started it. What was the D2 wagon? that's right. I tried to start a CW on Striker. Did no one feel the resistance on that one? it was Just me and Mat. Looking for people on danex who shaded the Striker vote even though I had given reasoning the previous day. Please don't ask me to find it ;-;. I don't know if I can ;-;.

So are you saying that the first day it was an Elim and a village? and then D2 it was just the Elim?

1: Scumslips - there has been a total of one (1) scumslip, which was a complete misunderstanding, and has since been cleared up.

2: Risky plans - I really am done saying this, but Villagers are more likely to take risks than Elims. this isn't just his meta. You're of course going to sometimes find the Elims that like being in the spotlight or whatnot, but in general, they're not going to want to put themselves in the spotlight, imo.

3: Aggressiveness - so I'd say that Aggressiveness in general isn't AI, but the Aggressiveness in Danex feels much more of a villager pushing their agenda, not worrying about it because they know that their agenda benefits village. The aggressiveness of an Elim I think would be more aggressive in general tone, to try and fake...whatever about a villager. feelings? not right. confusion? trying to fake hide the lack of confusion within aggression? I don't know what I'm talking about now I think I've gone a bit off on a tangent.

"but the more I've seen the less and less I've thought that."

confbias? maybe just a little?

---

"So you want to kill danex" should be the name of this show here.

You all assume that Danex is an Elim, and so won't talk about other options. It seems you've all locked on your votes. So I'm going to ask, in the interest of discussion: what are the next steps? How does Danex tie into the Elim team, and who are his teammates?

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C1:

Lotus (6) : Matrim's Dice, James Brafin, Illwei, Dannex, Flyingbooks42, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (4) : Ashbringer, Breaker, Lotus, Liranil, StrikerEZ, Condensation
Gears (1) : Quinn0928
StrikerEZ (1) : Archer

C2:

Ashbringer (6) : Matrim's Dice, Breaker, StrikerEZ, James Brafin, Illwei, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (5) : Gears, Ashbringer, Quinn0928, Lotus, Archer, Liranil
Quinn0928 (1) : Dannex

Elim team?
 - Striker: White Ajah
 - Danex: Brown Ajah
 - ???: Grey Ajah
 - ???: Warder?
 - ???: Warder?

If anyone has anything else they'd like to discuss, please. but let's please not throw all the votes on danex and then not talk about it after his flip. if you all are going to assume that he's Elim, then let's look at that for a bit or something. Or let's look at what happens if he flips vil. Or lets look at Lotus/Striker, Connie/Striker. or, me? look at me. idc. :P.

but please, don't just place votes and then go basically silent about actual discussion until 5 minutes before rollover. :P.

So, Illwei, these are all fine reasons why Dannex are not Elim.
What reasons do you have for Dannex being town?
(Also, if you'd answer my above post that would be great)

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

That's what I assumed, which is why I was fine with you running with that, in hopes that the Elims might think that too, and want to kill me. :P.

EDIT:

Has this turned into a guessing competition? While I do love being the center of attention, I think that that's not so useful rn :P.

EDIT EDIT:

Guys, I'm pretty sure that @TJ Shade is the Grey Ajah, and that he removed the vote on Danex just so that my action on Ash wouldn't go through >:(

Wait wait wait
Why would you vote on Ash, and then take an action on ash?

Everyone slow down, I'm trying to parse the setup! We 100% don't want to be hasty about this