James Brafin
-
Posts
246 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Posts posted by James Brafin
-
-
2 minutes ago, Breaker said:
Because I’m not an eliminator, and I’m suspecting the eliminators aren’t bonded to eliminators. I think we’re just misunderstanding each other.
I agree. I said that I think the most likely team is Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder, based on what we know about the setup. You made the (not unreasonable, but I think/thought is not accurate) assumption that I meant that the last two, Warder and Red, were bound together. So you responded (italics/bold for extending the line of reasoning) "But that incriminates Matrim or Gears, since they are the ones bonded to Red Ajah."
Except, only Matrim is bound to a Red. Gears is not, he is bound to a blue -- you, as far as you claimed. So that logic doesn't parse, why would assuming that the Red and Warder were bonded incriminate Gears?
There's a few options here:
You think that (I meant)/(it could be) red/blue. Okay, great, except that makes no sense. You're the only blue, and we've all town-read you for a while; why would you, or anyone else, suddenly think that it's blue?
You think Gears could Elim with Archer, as they are a Warder. That's -- marginally better, but why would you suddenly flip on your Warder like that, when there are literally four Warders living? That, again makes no sense, especially since you've been town-reading them all game.
Or, three (and what I think is most likely): You slipped. You momentarily forgot that you had claimed blue previously, and made an error just now in softing/outing Red, prolly from game exhaustion.
0 -
1 minute ago, Breaker said:
I was arguing that we might have an elim Warder who isn’t bonded to an elim aes sedai.
Yea, that's reasonable. But why does the assumption that Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder and that they are bonded make Gears a suspect if you're blue then?
0 -
13 minutes ago, Breaker said:
It’s possible. But that incriminates either Matrim or Gears. In fairness, I’d like to re-investigate the notion of an internally paired Warder/Aes Sedai. It’s a little weaker and a little stronger than the alternative. You get a more solid control of protects for the aes sedai, but, on the other hand, you can use that to your advantage to get aes sedai killed if the aes sedai is vil. It’s often a hard crime to track, since no aes sedai is public about their protection nights. On the other hand, the internal pm’s are useless, since you have the elim doc. Therefore, the control, information, and outreach of an external bond makes it the more valuable commodity. If there are four eliminators, or five, with the roles remaining, then the elim team was fairly weak to start. Perhaps they had an external bond. Do we have anyone alive who was bonded to a now-dead Aes Sedai? I suppose this also only further opens possibilities on gears and Matrim, but I have a very very solid village read on gears, and Matrim strikes me as village, despite a few past mishaps. Notably, he seemed concerned about Orlok reading him as elim. Given that Orlok only really read day 1, however, I don’t know what to make of that.
I find myself once again talking in circles about how everybody has a good alibi.
Oh, also,You’re not gonna like it, but my first inclination is to respond that the three Ajahs most likely to be Black Ajah, canonically, were, in order, Red, Grey, White. You are not going to stop me from geeking out about wheel of time, ok? The fifteen year-old that lost himself in that world is screaming at me to ramble about Tower politics.
None of this is unfair I don't think. But two warders also means it could be one of Order/Connie
Why does it incriminate Gears? I thought you were blue.
Edit: Oh, Breaker
You wouldn't do this to me, would you, Breaker?
0 -
32 minutes ago, Archer said:
The way Devotary protected Dannex throughout this game was suspicious. It threw Gears and I off for several days. However, given that Dannex has now flipped Village, it would have made more sense for elim!Devotary to protect Elims up for exe, including Quinn (who they voted for C3). I believe the elims have a vote manipulator, so that leaves James. I’ll justify my decision using the end of C3 vote results. Elim!James joined the CW on me when Quinn was up for exe. They could have forced a tie with Dannex-Quinn by adding a Grey vote onto Dannex, but they were smart enough not to, knowing that the other Grey had consistently protected them. Matrim never switched off, which makes them seem villagey to me, because the other three votes on Quinn seem to have been villagers. (Future me here: rereading this, you could also conclude that this is proof both Greys are innocent, but if you think that, make me a balanced elim team without using the Greys. And if James really thought I was an elim, why not add a vote to me to put his money where his mouth is?).
Quinn0928 (4) : Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary of Spontaneity
Dannex (2) : Gears, Breaker, Archer
Archer (2): Lotus, James BrafinI expect Devotary to be night killed soon (being the most powerful person left besides Breaker, who can spot night kills), so let’s get all the vote manipulation off the table by hitting James.
Since Orlok was not an elim!yellow, I struggle to balance things without an elim!Grey. We know that we have: Red (Quinn)+Lotus (Warder)+Striker (White) VS Blue (Ashbringer)+Green (Liranil)+Yellow (Shard)+Brown (Burnt)+Brown (Dannex)+White (Illwei)+Red (Flying)+White (Orlok)+Red (Archer)
AKA
Red+Outbonded Warder+White+XXX+XXX? VS Green+Yellow+Blue+Brown+Brown+White+White+Red+Red+5
Grey (Devotary)
Grey (James)
Blue (Breaker)
Blue’s Warder (Gears)
Red’s Warder (Matrim)
Grey’s Warder (Order)
(White’s?) Warder (Connie)
Looks to me like the two village reds and whites were to conceal the elim reds and whites, by the way. So I'm clearing myself because two reds on the elim team makes little sense.
Elim!Grey warder on village!Grey doesn’t make sense because they’d be quickly killed. So I’m mentally clearing Order for now. The reverse is however possible. I could apply the same logic to the Blue, but the village did have two of them, so maybe one was expendable. The village needed at least one Blue, but we didn’t need two. So Breaker is my backup choice, but I’d prefer to keep them alive for now because the value of maybe picking up a night kill is higher than maybe hitting an elim.
I don’t like the look of a Red+White+Warder+Warder+Warder team. Sure, they have extra lives, but they are weak on offensive ability. And then what good is having a Red? You’d know three of the five warders already. For that reason alone, I think there’s a maximum of one living Warder on the elim team. If it's not Matrim or Order, it's Connie or Gears. My money's on Connie, and I'd join a wagon on them if the opportunity arose.
I absolutely understand Gears’ crusade against Dannex. I was thinking along similar lines. Dannex, you were right about the lack of vanillas and you were playing honest the whole game through, I apologize for not believing you.
For future reference, my scans are useless with all the roles known, so now I’m just double-checking people’s claims. If I find anything damming, I’ll let the group know.
This is dumb, since with Dannex's flip we Devo and I are confirmed town. My guess here is that Archer is pushing to shrek me, then turn on devo when I flip Vil. I'm not going to argue semantics about this; I was offline when the flip happened and couldn't get back in time, otherwise I would have done more. Again, you're using something completely NAI as a reason to justify me being Elim.
Archer
I realize that you don't think he's an Elim, Dice, but Archer has been weaving a fake narrative since day one, and not really contributing anything to the conversation. It screams bad play.
Also, 1) Archer has been consistently wrong about setup speculation. There was only one yellow, both browns were Elim, ect. The fact that they are still basing all of their reasoning on setup speculation after it has been revealed to them that their assumptions about the game's setup are completely wrong is absurd. That's willfully ignoring what has been going on in the game. And 2) This is a complete 180 from the last cycle; nowhere at all was I on Archer's read list, and they were confident to an extreme that Devo was likely Elim, citing several examples on how it could be Dice/Devo or Orlock/Devo. It's a complete and total shift in reasoning that Archer has no grounds for whatsoever.
A third and final note: At this point, knowing that both Grey are town, why didn't the Elims take one out last night? With us alive it becomes much, much harder to push lynches and extends exlo for at least a cycle. A town player shouldn't be advocating for the removal of both Greys in a single swoop. However, if they're hoping to push for a misshrek based on bad setup spec, that makes a ton of sense. It's pretty much exactly what Archer did with Burnt and Dannex too, and I can see trying it again as being a really smart move. But I'm not going to fall for that twice, no sir, and I won't let anyone else either.
Edit:
22 minutes ago, Breaker said:Red/Warder/Warder/Warder/Warder is a pretty ridiculous concept, but I struggle to find a world where James' endless waffling on Dannex was productive as an eliminator. Perhaps they never kept suspicion up overnight during a time when Dannex was likely to die, but that will require examination, and would only remove some of their alibi. I consider James MORE exonerated by this than Devotary.
I'm frustrated you would go for me, but I'm struggling to ID their teamcomp myself. I think it's probably time to simulate endgame positions. I hate endgame.
edit: after consideration, I’m recommending that everyone halt their scans. We know everything; all you can do is get caught in my scan instead of the eliminator. In turn, if you wish to target me, please do so. It only makes sense, since I’ve never been confirmed, and since I’m the one making the request.
What about Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder? That makes sense to me, some weaker but valuable PRs for Elims, while also giving them some extra lives and off-switches for town PRs. I'd say Red/Grey/White/Warder/Warder, but we've mechanically cleared both the Greys, which Archer is conveniently forgetting, so...
0 -
REEEE
I agree we are better off doing a tie here. I’m a little shocked I’m not dead tbh. This does clear both Devo and me though, but beyond that...
I need to go think. I don’t know what to do. Be back after class.
0 -
Don't do anything. Just sit tight.
Also: Striker, Lotus, and Quinn have all been heading those wagons as well. It wasn't just Matrim and I. I don't know it means anything at all, but it is super super weird.
0 -
Just now, Condensation said:
If you really think she will, my vote is still unsworn. I was going to make it a tie, but then Breaker did... so I'm just over here doing nothing.
I wouldn't put it past her. Thank you for standing by and letting us double. Hopefully it saves us a great deal in the future.
0 -
I swear to all frick, if Devo comes and screws this up I'm going to scream.
It has occurred to me that the Elim have led every counterwagon to protect Dannex so far. I really don't know what to make of that. Not that it matters, but it is a thought.
0 -
How long until rollover?
A half hour? An hour and a half?
0 -
On a wholy unrelated note, I was up until 2 last night waiting for Burnt to come online and banter with me for a while.
Then I remembered I helped shrek her. ;o;
0 -
I don't buy a WGG, honestly, which is why I've finally settled on Connie being town. I debated it for a while, bit it seems like a pretty big stretch. I'd be happier with an Order/Dannex hit today. Also, if Devo does anything other than tamper Order, it's pretty much confirmed that they are the Elim. Doing it doesn't clear them, of course, but saving Dannex again would all but condemn them.
0 -
Order
Devotary, I'm going to need your cooperation here. We need these two tied. I agree that Dannex seems most reasonable, but in the off chance my Warder is Elim, we need them in a place where we can shrek them net cycle. Let the two of them tie; in fact, if you can move a vote to Order if we don't get another by rollover that would be great. But they must tie, no questions.
0 -
@TJ Shade, can I get a VC?
0 -
So here's what I propose then:
We're at 8/2, worst case scenario; more likely, I think we're at 9/1. That's not terrible. Let's choose two people to remove tonight; one of them can be Order, the other should be someone we can hit tonight for sure, to confirm someone else
Breaker watches a target, someone we think might be the next Elim. Elim can't just not kill tonight, especially assuming 9/1, and will likely go after talky PRs again; that would be me, Dice, and Gears at this point. We'll leave a little WIFOM in the mix to keep the Elim guessing, which should make our job a bit easier. Worst case scenario, we go into 6/2, which is a pretty decent place to be in I think; at this point we have four town that is all but confirmed, which is going to make it nearly impossible for Elim to hide.
The problem is sighs Dannex and Devo. To be clear, when I say "four town" above, I think Gears and Breaker are pretty much confirmed at this point; their behavior screams town, and Gears is tunneling far too hard for me to believe that he's Elim. But Dannex and Devo are the wildcards here, and could swing either way; sure they could be town, but they could also be the Elimteam, and that stresses me out. I'm pretty sure Orlock is Blue rather than White or Yellow, so Orlock may be able to observe another person -- again, that's not confirmed though.
It's not a great plan, but it's not leaving us in the dark. Any suggestions on who the other shot might be?
0 -
6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:
Remember. Based on the roles of the elims already dead, the only distribution of remaining ones that makes any sense are either two Aes Sedai or a single Warder. I don't feel comfortable exeing any of the Aes Sedai we have as it stands.
Oh, so you think it could be four-person then. Interesting. The problem is if we are wrong here, we don't have time to fix it. We need confirmation on who the Elim is. Gears, you got a protect left?
0 -
44 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:
...What do you mean? I thought it was clear.
Look, everyone is so obviously village to me in so many ways that I don't know who to vote. I can clear everyone who is remotely active in ways that make sense, ways that you and a bunch of others have mentioned, logically and mechanically. What I'm doing is the only viable option my brain can logically process right now. You all can exe Dannex or Devotary solely for info- but they all have enough reasons they're village that I don't really want to. The same with Gears, Breaker, Archer, and you.
But that asks me to believe that the elims are almost certainly all warders at this point, and I just don't buy it. It just doesn't make any sense!
@Orlok Tsubodai, buddy, please tell me you've got some analysis done. I can't do this.
0 -
22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:
The Unknown Order
WHAT ARE YOU DOING
0 -
29 minutes ago, Breaker said:
Consider me tired.
This just in: Breaker is some kind of land vehicle. More at 11.
2 -
33 minutes ago, Gears said:
I answered in the part you quoted. No one wants to vote you, so I can't get a majority on you. Breaker and I are a unit, but the Greys are opposed, Jam suspects Devo over you, Archer thinks the Danex X is nonviable because the Greys are opposed, and Matrim thinks you're village for some reason. However, the opposed are willing to vote Devotary [excluding Devotary themself, of course].
Also, completely unrelated tangent: I feel somewhat miffed that despite the evidence I've outlined in previous cycles, no one actually seems to be paying Danex any mind. Was my logic unsound? Did I make a flawed argument? No one even engaged my arguments, merely brushed them aside. I feel somewhat ignored. This may be unfounded and I'm just blatantly misremembering the facts, but these are my emotions as they stand. My apologies if I have pushed aside reality in favour of stewing in angst and a woe is me mentality. After a break, my emotions are less prevalent, so I think it is safe to engage in discourse now.
I think Dannex just has had a lot of us really pocketed this game. Between Illwei hardtowning them and Dice town tunneling, there hasn't been a lot of reason to suspect Dannex of anything. I guess that should have been our biggest warning bell, is that I don't think Dannex has had to defend or justify themselves much this game mostly because the rest of Town has been doing it for him. Your criticisms of Dannex are valid, and I think if we could get a whole wagon on him I'd be more interested in that shrek than Devo. I just don't think that's going to happen.
0 -
1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:
What would that make the team, though?
1 lone Aes Sedai - Quinn or Striker.
1 externally bonded Warder - Lotus
1 internal Aes Sedai/Warder bond - Quinn or Striker, and who? Someone we haven't even thought of? There legitimately are not enough Warders to make this possible. We've had enough role reveals that we know who all the Warders are. The only ones still alive are me, Connie, Order, and Gears. Me and Archer are both village, pretty darn provably. Connie is not an e/e pair, Illwei flipped village. Order and James' relationship is strange, and then you and Gears.
So if there is an e/e Aes Sedai/Warder, it has to be either you and Gears or Order and James. And James has defended enough that I read him as tentative vil.
We cool
I hope no tensions are raised. But I still am gonna try to solve this.
Aight, I'm gonna try to work through this.
The way I see it, the remaining elims are one of two possibilities.
- Just One Warder. This is because, with two Warders on the team, it effectively creates extra lives. I don't see a five person, two warder team happening, but a four person, two warder seems more reasonable.
- Just Two Aes Sedai. This is because if there are two elims alive, the previous reasoning doesn't allow for a Warder. Five person, one warder is a team I find possible.
Let's work through the options.
Just one Warder:
If the remaining elim is a Warder, it has to be one of Me, Connie, Gears, or Order.
- Me: I am not evil. Reasoning in a previous post, if it isn't clear already
- Connie: I realize that a WGG is unlikely. Exe if it's down to the wire, and not before that.
- Gears: Out of everyone here, I find Gears the most likely lone elim Warder remaining. That's because of
- Order: because of Order. I don't see elim!Order voting James without a prod from a teammate, and as such, Order is less likely.
Just two Aes Sedai:
If there are two Aes Sedai remaining, it has to be two of Archer, Devotary, James, Breaker, Orlok, or Dannex.
- Archer: My Aes Sedai, a Red, of such I doubt the elims would have two of. Very unlikely.
- Devotary: A complicated one. I have a gut reaction evil to their vote which is really confusing because I voted alongside them. Would be evil with... James? Dannex?
- James: I'm still uber-paranoid, but Ockham's Razor. Confused at who they're pushing though, so I'd kill James before Dannex, Archer, and maybe Orlok. If evil, would be on a team with... Breaker? And an outside chance of Devotary
- Breaker: I don't see it, to be honest. I don't know why I was voting them. Breaker. If evil though, probably with Dannex.
- Orlok: Hard to say since they haven't caught up yet, but based on the distribution predictions they're either Yellow or White, both roles I would put in a villager's hands. Unlikely.
- Dannex: *Sigh* here's the hard one. I really want to reread their posts and relook at all the connections, but I wearily stand by my village read of them. If they are evil, it's probably with Devotary or Breaker.
I'd like to hear thoughts on this, as I'm pretty confident after another look at the distribution that the elims don't have an e/e bond pair still alive. As I'm unsure which of the comps is left, as it stands now I'd like to tie it between Devotary and Gears. Though maybe not a tie, because Devo can manip away :/
I gtg now. Sorry if there are typos, I won't be correcting them :P.
This was...
Surprisingly well-thought out, tbh. I don't think this comes from Elims, tbh. I'll agree to an uneasy truce for now.
Devo seems fine to me, though Gears is going to be hard to hit with two lives. If Devo flips Elim though, I'm going to go after Dannex so hard. Not even joking. Like a truck.
0 -
On 1/18/2021 at 1:14 PM, Matrim's Dice said:
I can and will kill suspects!
To arms!
Breaker!
Wait, no. Breaker, James Brafin
I... did? I'm pretty darn sure I've mentioned agreeing with 5 elims and one elim Grey, but if not, that's on me. And now you know.
To whom it may concern: I think there are five elims, with one grey and one brown remaining!
1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:It’s not, it was a theory. One up until now I stood by, but I still see no way Dannex is evil.
Dead doc has to be laughing their heads off at this :P.
Gears, I’ll reply more properly in an hour or so. I need to finish up homework and reconvene my notes and thoughts. And get off mobile.
Ah yes. Very convincing. A theory you've been pushing all game, based on setup spec, is now invalid.
I had a hunch this might happen, but I figured I'd wait until I saw it for myself; Dice is deflecting, just like Devo is. Team is Dice and Devo, pretty sure.
For those who have been wondering, elim!brown is an idea that's been pushed by Dice, Dannex, and Illwei since the start of this. My guess is here that Dice shoots Illwei to get control of town, then pushes a lynch on Gears that goes against everything he's been saying all game, to pull off the win.
0 -
2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:
Well, that. That’s a great reason to hit Devo, since we’ve all but mechanically confirmed that it’s Dannex and a Grey, and now they’re trying to blame shift.
Edit: yes, what Gears said.
0 -
SHOOT RATS FRICK
Okay, that sucks. I guess Dannex and Devo and I are on the chopping block. I will lay down my argument for why you should shrek Devo and not me in three hours time, after work.
0 -
1 minute ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:
Ah okay.
Hrm
I mean. Is shreking a warder really that bad. If they're evil we have to do it eventually anyways
order
Making note of this. This feels like a bad attempt at a bus/save my own rear.
0
Quick Fix 50: Return to Tar Valon
in Sanderson Elimination
Posted
Okay, so riddle me this: Why didn't they hit Devo last night, then try and get me shrekked?