Quintessential

Fadran wasn't lying about turtle; she admitted to me in our PM that she was the one who convinced Fadran to go PM Gears about me. (and Gears can confirm, as he has before, that she did in fact send him a message as well.) I don't know what this means for any of the other players, unfortunately... elim!turtle would have given us a lot of information, but I guess we probably should have realized that village!turtle would not. It's just that she was acting so suspicious that we all assumed she must be an elim (well, all of us except the elims, who we assume were all too happy to bandwagon). The fact that turtle was village doesn't necessarily mean that Gears is, or that he isn't, unfortunately. We could lynch him next I suppose, since if he is elim we can be relatively sure that he was actually roleblocked and that Reading is just village. Lynching Reading is tricky because if Reading is TLR, I suspect he aligned with the village (for PM reasons), and lynching village-aligned TLR will get PMs closed permanently, which cuts off our source of info. Despite the logic that says we should vote out Gears, though, I don't really *want* to. I gut-read him at this point as village... I just can't think of anyone else who's suspicious and could give us as much information as he could. So with that in mind, I'm starting off the voting with Gears though that is in no way set in stone and I hate to do it. Meanwhile, if someone else *did* RB, *please* PM someone you trust or try to figure out how to make the information public without exposing yourself. I wouldn't suggest doing another PM chain, since that had enough problems and its critics were right, there are too many ways for the elims to manipulate it. I was under the impression that turtle made up that message? That was what she originally said when pressed. She said she hadn't trusted Gears (due to the PM chain) so she'd wanted to mislead him. Edit: Oh wait you mean the second time nvm ignore me

That's true... and I guess with this many people all voting for her it would be hard to use the list to narrow down who's an elim anyway.

No, probably not, though it does allow people to state their official stances. I mean, it would look a bit strange for someone to say they strongly suspected turtle but *not* vote for her. I do agree with you, though, that it's starting to look a little bandwagony. We'll obviously have to go over the voting history for this round quite thoroughly next cycle, regardless of whether turtle flips village or elim.

*grits teeth* Please. Don't. Do. That.

*sigh* well if it's a gut-read there's no argument I can make against it... And I guess I can't blame you since I'm now actively advocating for lynching you. Also yes, I agree with your theory about Gears.

I'm not sure. WGG seemed rather far-fetched to me even when I was the one who first suggested it, and I'm inclined to trust Reading. But if turtle turns up elim, then it would make sense to look a lot more closely at Reading (while still keeping in mind the possibility that Reading is village-aligned TLR, and that killing him in that case would be very bad for us).

TJ, the reason we aren't thinking that both turtle and Gears are elims is that if they were, turtle wouldn't have sent the decoy message to Gears at all--she would have spread it around to a bunch of confirmed villagers, maybe had one other elim (who was below suspicion, so not Gears) start it among other villagers or convinced a pocketed villager to start it. The fact that almost *no one* has seen the message indicates that it wasn't sent by an elim to protect another elim. Now, if turtle is village, then her story that she didn't trust Gears matches up whether Gears is actually village or not--I've read him both ways this game so far, so I can empathize. The other possibility is that turtle is an elim and wanted to pin Gears for spreading the rumors by passing them (from herself and from turtle) to village Gears in the hopes that *he* would pass them on. If we had tried to trace the second chain, all the messages would have gotten back to Gears and turtle and Fadran could have claimed to have nothing to do with it. We would have been more likely to believe them than Gears, since he would already have seemed suspicious. The plan *didn't* work because village!Gears didn't pass on the message. The third possibility is the one that seems most likely to me right now, given the facts we have. Which is why I'm voting turtle rather than Gears. Edit: And yes, for PM reasons I happen to know that the Gears chain was started by the genuine RBer, not an elim--I personally more or less ruled the possibility that that one was started by elims a long time ago. The idea that Gears is village makes sense with the fact that the Gears chain got spread so widely.

Well I'm glad this cleared up overnight... I saw Ghander post right before I went to bed and was ready to switch to voting Fadran because, like Danex, I've been PMing with the people involved and with Ghander posting there were three different people confirming that Fadran was lying. But Fadran confusing turtle and Ghander actually does clear that up lol. I would have hated to vote out a fellow new player on C2. Anyway, keeping my vote on turtle. Also, I won't be on for the last half-hour before rollover and the first half-hour after 'cause I have an online class oof.

You were *literally* the only two people I sent it to. Edit: and before you ask, the people who told me were Danex, turtle, and Ashbringer. I got PMs from all three of them.

Gears because there are PM-chains going around saying he was roleblocked (and thus might have tried to kill Reading), turtle because they did some weird sus stuff involving accusing me of being role-blocked, then saying it was a lie to confuse Gears, then finding out that two other people "independently" accused me of the same thing. Me because Jester thought my in-depth analysis of elim-strats was weird. Ghander because she was one of the two other people who accused me. Briefly Reading because he could be a spiked elim and part of a WGG. Danex for suggesting the anonymous PM chains.

We've considered this already; the problem is that it's possible Reading is TLR and village-aligned. In that case, and if he died, all PMs would be closed which would be a major disadvantage for villagers while basically not affecting elims at all. The idea is that we lynch someone else involved to see if we can get more information on what everyone is likely to be. Edit: and then, if WGG seems more likely once we know more, we lynch Reading (though I personally read him as village)

The *person* who was roleblocked. Turtle, Ghander, and Fadran all apparently made up their accusation that I was, and I can confirm that I was not and that the action that I submitted definitely took effect.

Unless?

No, I'm also suspicious of Ghander, mostly because of the seemingly coincidental claim that I was roleblocked by both Fadran/Ghander and turtle at the same time. Since Fadran said that it was Ghander's idea to pin me, I don't know about Fadran, but I think that Ghander and turtle had some level of coordination on that, which suggests to me that they're both elims since they didn't explain it away by saying they had a PM. However, I think it's more likely that we'll get a lynch on turtle at this point, and if they flip village it weakens my case against Ghander as well, so I'm keeping my vote on turtle. Also, if turtle flips village that suggests that Gears is in fact village; that's because turtle sent *Gears* the message about me, not other people. If Gears were an elim and turtle, another elim, was trying to help him, then turtle would send the message to a lot of people to try to cause confusion. As it is, I haven't heard anything about that (though we still don't know how the message got back around to turtle, unless Fadran and Ghander sent it to more people than just Gears, since Gears hasn't passed it on to anyone that we know of). @eltruT who sent you the message when it got back around to you? Edit: hold on I'm reading back through my reasoning for the second paragraph and something's off... Edit edit: right I mean to say if turtle flips elim that suggests that Gears is village. I don't know whether it actually says anything about Gears if turtle flips village, since if turtle was village they wouldn't actually know anything about Gears, so their actions towards Gears could be based off of nothing more than assumptions.

Oh, also @Matrim's Dice I voted for turtle in the same post that I removed my vote from Gears.

Yes

@Matrim's Dice Vote Count? Again? sry lol

*Except* we didn't find out that roleblocks are the same in writeups as anything else until this turn. So unless they asked in the elim doc or something? seems unlikely

Okay, look. I was really convinced for a while that it was Gears but I'm realizing that that's actually sort of unlikely. First of all: turtle, Mist/Fadran, and Ghander are super suss for their incorrect and weirdly coincidential claims that I was roleblocked, all specifically targeted at the person who was already being implicated. And second: When Gears got those messages, he didn't pass them on (which is what an elim would have done, to sow chaos) and he *told me about them immediately* which I also don't see an elim doing. So, I realize now that I am quite possibly wrong about Gears and if so I apologize. I'm voting turtle this round, because at this point they seem more suspicious and they will give us just as much information.

Matrim already confirmed that a roleblock would look the same as a spiked inquisitor or TLR

who the RBer was? or who was RBd?

What I mean is, why did you and Ghander message Gears saying that I was roleblocked? Edit: like why'd you choose me?

k so I'm gonna ask you the same question, then: why did you accuse me? Was that just random? What's the likelihood that both you and turtle chose to accuse the same person?

I mean I can't say for sure that Gears was, but I wasn't. Edit: and I'm inclined to believe Gears *was* for (again) PM reasons.