Ashbringer

Fair, but he did use it as a method to try and get out of a lynch via vote shift. You used it to allow your powers to be seen as self-preservation instead of Elim manip. As such I also don’t trust Ventyl, or I un-trust him a lot more then I untrust you. My problem is that I make “impossible situations” that are, by my own admission, highly unlikely, but possible, and you equate them with complete Elim suspicion and react in a panicky way. I’m just going to stop talking about it. It’s getting out of hand, and unless Ventyl somehow explains all this I have another target to tinfoil on.

Okay, time to do some analysis. Ventyl and TJ: Outed Radiants, TJ as a likely Bondsmith, Ventyl as a likely Edgedancer, both pseudo-claimed to escape the lynch. Seem very badly to want to kill each other. Analysis: TJ is mild Village and Ventyl is very mild Elim, but I have no idea and I don’t want to wedge myself into this. Gears: Seem to be doing a lot of good analysis, but I’d prefer to have some more player reads. Analysis: Mild Village Striker: Striker “thought” the Elims would likely have Windrunner, Edgedancer, and/or Stoneward, and jokingly added Lightweaver. Well, we have Ventyl as a probable Edgedancer. Any thoughts on that? Semi-ninja’d edit: @Ventyl has essentially claimed Edgedancer, so he may have used Abrasion to protect himself and Progression to protect... TJ? But he can’t do that and Squire. Ventyl, at this point I want an explanation. @Straw, is it true that Squiring takes Stormlight charges (and, possibly, that you told Ventyl this)? Will be adding more analysis but I wanted to say that ^ first. And I was ninja’d too many times.

I can’t access each page of the threads easily. I’m more saying it’s a possibility. You panicking isn’t really helping convince me. That being said, I am NOT going to lynch TJ for information. That makes no sense whatsoever. We don’t need high-risk plays on D2. Edit: blegh.

I’ll see if I can build off my original read post.

Wait. I don’t want to kill TJ. I just still suspect him.

Explain how the bussing would go please. Refer to my defence in the previous post for why such a buss would be impossible as there was another non-elim(according to you), candidate (Ventyl). First, I was out golfing with my family for the hour before reset, so I missed a lot of the last-minute changes, and I didn’t have time to create a good read sense to place a vote, especially with Ventyl and your half-claims. Reset’s at 10AM for me, so I had to write that post fairly early and on mobile. Not really an excuse, but at least a reason. Secondly, I haven’t cleared Ventyl yet. I have no idea what he’s doing, but it appears to be very similar to what Elim!Ventyl did to me (and Matrim) in LG66. I think he’s being suspicious, it just seems like he’s too suspicious. I’d rather think that both Ventyl and TJ are Village, but I can’t just discount other possibilities. Here’s what I think the “bussing” would go. Village!Ventyl (likely a Radiant), Elim!Striker (roleless), Elim!TJ (Radiant). The Elims don’t want to lose anyone D1, but they really don’t want to lose a Radiant (TJ). That leaves them two choices from how the Village votes fell: vote and vote manip until Ventyl is lynched, or bus Striker. If Ventyl got lynched and flipped Village, the vote manip/trains would show the lynch moving away from both Striker AND TJ, especially if you both joined the lynch-Ventyl train. Meaning you would both be alive, but under suspicion, where the Elims risk losing a Radiant to the next lynch. But if Striker got lynched and flipped Elim, then the only vote manip present is you (apparently) saving yourself and getting an Elim lynched. Doing that partially clears you, and suspicion falls, as it did, on the most suspicious remaining person: Ventyl. Not to mention the possibility that Ventyl is also an Elim Radiant, in which case the Elims bussed Striker to save their Radiants. As I said, I don’t believe it and I don’t want to believe it. You as a Village Bondsmith makes the most sense. But I can’t discount the possibility you’re not.

The reason I would like to know your squire is because I was trying to think of a way to clear you. Squiring without telling gives the Village (probably) a boost, but won’t prove anything about you past your own word. Having a squire out as well ties you both together to help get a glimpse at both players’ alignments. But don’t out a squire without asking them first, and definitly don’t out a third Radiant. That being said, if you really are an Abrasion user = Edgedancer/Dustbringer (do NOT verify which), that might be enough for me to back off. I’m hoping you’re Edgedancer (which in that case I somehow got correctly from my role-analysis-being-role-indicative theory) and that we don’t have a Dustbringer suspect N1. That would ruin this good start real quick. Either way, having a squire out on someone you trust as Village is probably a good idea in this case. And like Truthwatcher said, please stop claiming things to the thread.

Uhh... no. We’re adamant about having you squire because you said you would squire tonight in order to prove yourself as a loyal Radiant. If you really are a Village Radiant, then we need you to Squire someone before the Elims kill you. If you’re not, and are either a Village Roleless or an Elim, then you’ve gotten yourself into this mess and I’m going to get to the bottom of it. Here’s what I propose. Squire tonight, but don’t tell anyone who you’re squiring. The next day, tell us whether the squiring went through, and have the squire (who you can PM with) agree that your squiring succeeded. I think this would work to help clear you, and/or pull a squiring away from the Elims. It would be acting in the Village’s interest. The only problem is that “my squiring failed because I hit a Radiant” is both a fairly likely event and an easy excuse... anyone else have any advice on this plan?

So, this man thinks he can hold a Dustbringer. Tyrian focused on what was around him. Silas’s voice, condecending, but also not very far away. Shadows trying to trap his legs. And the storm within him. “Perhaps I should reconsider. Perhaps you should. Defeat me and I will serve you.” Tyrian channeled his Stormlight into Division and Abrasion. He didn’t know if he could Divide the bonds holding him. Abrasion, however... Tyrian spun in his bonds, swinging his sickle toward Silas’s heart. “And if I defeat you?”

The door opened again. “I’m back,” Cassie said, looking around. It seemed Lord had a new customer.

Well. Elim!Striker’s down, TJ’s a Bondsmith and probably village and out of Stormlight. Based on this, I think Joe and TJ are soft-cleared. Sart... maybe? D1 distancing is a fairly common thing, although I can hardly condemn someone for voting on an Elim... Both votes that TJ claims to have used his abilities on were canceled, not moved, meaning either any two of Windrunner/Bondsmith/Stoneward did this (and likely coordinated), or TJ’s telling the truth with using both Bondsmith powers. Especially since Striker flipped Elim, I’m more inclined to believe the second, but I don’t think we should full clear TJ yet, as I could see the Elims bussing a roleless to save a Radiant. (And I kinda would love to see what an Evil!Bondsmith would be like in general...) Ventyl, you still need to squire tonight I think. Don’t say who you’re targeting, but don’t pick anyone you think is likely a Diagrammist, Radiant, or possible inactive. I’m a little worried by you pushing a majority of Radiants, as it sets up things that I don’t like the sound of. Especially with Squiring. Gears (et all) - just a question, but is there a significant difference in the vote analysis between a “poke vote” and a “vote with no reasoning”?

I don’t really want to vote on anybody. I suspect Ventyl and TJ’s half-claims and reactions, but I don’t want to tunnel-lynch Ventyl again and I don’t see why TJ’s suspicion is so bad. I also read Gears as village and have no idea where a Striker lynch came from. That being said, letting Ventyl live to squire tonight I think is a better plan. D2 we can ask to see who he squired. If no one pipes up in his defense, then we lynch him. It’s not perfect, but it helps. I’ll be inactive for the next hour, so I don’t have time to make a reasoned vote. So I’m not going to try to. Edit: oh, or he could hit a Radiant. That makes a wrench in my plan

Okay, here’s an attempt to do analysis on mobile. I’ve done TJ as events progressed, leaving me with a slight Elim read from reactions, but not really enough to commit to a vote. Gears: Started with a bunch of role analysis, acts very formal and bounces theories around with people. Has evidently scared Xino out of posting. I don’t really see anything that differs from the QF widely - and even there, our Elim team was scared enough to post a kill C3. Verdict: Slight Village lean. I think that’s just what Gears would do in any circumstance. Elbereth: The first to vote, on TJ. I was considering pointing this out as a possible distancing technique, but with Elbereth’s non-poke stance and TJ still being the main lynch candidate, I don’t think that’s terribly likely. Didn’t want to poke vote but changes votes wildly (my guess is just going off whatever gut read is stronger?). Doesn’t give much value to Village protector roles. Analysis: Null, meaning her playstyle irks me but I’m fairly certain that’s just her playstyle. It’s my first game with her. Ventyl: So, I don’t want to kill Ventyl on shoddy reasoning for a second (third?) time, whether justified or not. First post puts a poke vote on Joe, and advises caution to protecting roles and Abrasion users (possibly an Edgedancer?). Reacted quickly to votes on him, asking for reasons. Teased and confirmed his Radiance, said he’d squire Elbereth to confirm. Analysis: Slight Elim Lean, but I’d rather wait and see. Haven’t seen any other red flags, but I’ll try to flesh this out a bit tomorrow.

Elim team TJ/Striker/Ventyl/Gears confirmed. You heard it here first! ... On a more serious note, I’M trying to subtly defend you by saying that I don’t think a tinfoil suspicion is that suspicious. That being said, I agree with Mage that you do seem more panicked than before. I mean, last LG you were the Coinshot of all things and you didn’t panic like this. I think, for now, we shouldn’t lynch TJ for this. But I’m wary, and we only have so many scans we can use. As for roleclaiming, we can’t just back off every lynch because we’re scared of hitting a claimed Radiant. For one thing, it becomes an easy escape, and clues in Elims to who may actually be a Village Radiant. Edit: T-T-T-TRIPLE ninja’d

When suddenly cobalt, mercury, and nickel aren’t your favorite metals anymore. When you look up nicrosil and find it’s only available in industrial quantities...

Lord Faleast had a headache. Brightlord Faleast, he reminded himself. He still had some trouble with that adjustment, particularly the bright green eyes. Fortunately Roshar had few mirrors, especially for men. Faleast marched with the rest, toward their new campground. He’d heard a few whispers about how such an old man obviously past his fifties had kept up with all the new “recruits”. These whispers had made him smile, although his lips didn’t move. If they’d known how old he actually was, they would have a lot more to talk about. And if they’d known how old AraRaash was, they’d never dare talk about him again. The Diagram is acting up again. If they know we’re here, what we’re capable of... we may need to remove them. “I doubt Taravangain has anything to worry about with us,” Faleast whispered. “We’re not here to interfere with your abilities. So long as we keep them hidden, we’re just as safe as anyone here.” His voice took a harder tone. “And thanks to your new present, even a Shardblade won’t do much to us.” Bloodmaking is a useful skill. Better used in my... our hands, the voice in his head that was AraRaash said. It was a necessary loss. Besides, what we came to Roshar for is exactly what the Diagram doesn’t want anyone to find. I swear, Straw, if Faleast gets eaten by a Kandra one day and then turned into a Sleepless the next...

Village or Elim, the Elims won’t kill Ventyl if we agree to lynch him Cycle 3, as we’re either right and the Elims wouldn’t kill him for us, or we’re wrong and the Elims can count on a mislynch. Although a Division user might take it into their own hands. But I think the plan will work for now. It puts some pressure on Ventyl to prove himself, and possibly keeps the Elims off a village Radiant for a while.

If we’re going to debate about suprise game mechanics... Edit: ...

*Taravangain has entered the chat*

I like this plan, so long as it gives time to make a better judgement. I doubt that the Elims will kill Village!Ventyl if we promise to lynch him for them. Although I think Elims will have at least one Radiant... Hey! Transferable Honorblades were my game idea!

TJ thought me saying there were “24(ish)” players when there are, in fact, exactly 24 players was suspicious. Which I kinda understand. Everyone else... not so much.

Oh my, that’s a lot I missed. I am kinda busy today, but I used that as an Elim excuse far too much in the QF, so I’ll try to post an analysis post tonight. I don’t really see TJ’s suspicion of me AI. It’s a flimsy piece of reasoning, but at least there is reasoning, unlike most early votes I’ve seen. I kinda get what he meant, too, although I hope me being on mobile and bad at math doesn’t get me lynched... if anything, I’m weirded out by him taking his vote off, not doing it when I explained/gave a defense but removing it when people started getting suspicious. (I also get weirded out when people flock to my defense for little reason... ah well. I can live with that ) Also Matrim, tinfoiling means being very paranoid in your suspicions, and not letting up on suspicion because someone’s heavily read as Village. It’s not as outlandish as random suspicions, but it’s generally suspicions disprovable by Occam’s Razor (I think that’s the right razor...). I tend to tinfoil, as does TJ and a few others like Silber, and newer players who can’t gut read as easily.

Cassandra Adama stared at the building. It didn’t look like a secret organization’s headquarters, but she supposed that was the point. She pulled out her letter. She’d written it several times over, but she thought that she had found the form that fit the mood the best. So she slipped it under the door, and turned around, heading back to Lord’s shop. ... Ghostbloods, My name is Cassandra Adama, the new metalurgist in the city, and I have a business proposition you may find interesting. I’ve encountered the Ghostbloods on Roshar many times before, with different levels of... pleasantness... but you always had a reputation for power and for influence. My deal is fairly simple: have the Ghostbloods use my shop for some of your supplies, and spread the word of its quality. In return, I will give you the names, descriptions, and abilities of every Metalborn within this city who visits my store. As of now I don’t yet know whether I wish to take the oath and tattoo and join, but you may be able to convince me otherwise. I’ll be returning to my shop later today; you can find me there, or leave a note to set up a meeting to discuss details. By all means, come and see the store for yourself - then you won’t need to exaggerate how worthwhile buying metals at my store is. I Soulcast most of my wares myself. Your humble entrepreneur, Cassandra Adama