Karnatheon

I agree it is likely elim!Rath is trying to protect elim!BR by throwing doubt on village!Randuir and potentially village!Fura with that. Seeing BRs alignment could also be indicotative of Rath's.

Alright, this is all assumptions, conjecture, and chances, there are no guarantees to any of this, so take it with a grain of salt I guess? On N2 the Blight attacked for 11 damage. 2 of that damage got through. That means there were 9 defense actions that weren't sabotaged. 15 people posted in thread that cycle, the 3 who didn't were STINK, Mr Doctor, and Meta. STINK has been pretty much inactive all game. Mr Doctor stated he was busy that cycle during the next cycle, and Meta didn't really give a reason. Assuming those 3 didn't submit actions, that leaves us with a potential 15 actions to make use of. Given that it was a night turn, Rand had no special action, Mat has no special action, Perrin was dead, Lan would count for 2 defense, The Green Man is the only other role we know is in play and he would use his Rand protect, the 3 anonymous docs carry no special night action, Balthamel can redirect, Fain can't sabotage, and the elims only had access to the kill action and roleblock at that time. I checked back through the D3 posts to see if anyone mentioned being redirected or rolelocked, because I remember reading that at some point, but couldn't remember which day. I didn't see it in there though. Going to fill out some general assumptions here. Rand: Defend. Mat: Defend. Lan: Defend. Moiraine: Unless they got lucky and hit an elim with a redirect who thus didn't mention it, defend? Loial: I don't know if it's worth it for Loial to record, unless they have very strong suspicions. I also feel this is the least likely role to be in play personally. Defend? Green Man: Protect. Balthamel: Sabotage. Aginor: Sabotage. Village: Defend. Elims: Kill, sabotage. If those assumptions are correct, out of the 15 'active' people that turn, only 3 used a special action. The elims killed Xino, the Green Man protected Rand, and Fain did whatever. That gives us 12 actions to dedicate toward the Blight. If Lan isn't in play, at most 10 village could have defended, and 1 elim could have sabotaged. If Lan is in play, 10 village could have defended for 11, and 2 elim could have sabotaged. That would give us either 3 or 4 elims posting in that turn. If Moiraine did roleblock, I think she must have hit Fain, since we know she didn't hit the person who submitted a kill, and she couldn't have hit an elim who was Sabotaging unless not all the village defended. On D3 5 votes were negated. Up to one of those could have been negated by Aginor if he had targeted someone who didn't defend that turn. If that is the case then 4 votes were possibly negated by defend/sabotage actions. The 5 votes negated that turn were myself, Randuir, Aman. 1 of CadCom, Drought, Ark, and Mr Doctor. And 1 of Meta, and HH. There were again 15 people active that turn. The inactives were Sart and STINK. Rand: SAtS. Mat: Defend. Lan: Defend. Moiraine: Could have defended or Persuaded to detect alignment. Loial: Same reasoning as above. Green Man: Defend. Aginor: As stated, could have attempted a negate to fish for action info. Balthamel: Sabotage. Elims: Sabotage. So, as stated if the elims are smart and using Aginor's negate to fish for action info, he used a special action. Rand used a special action. Moiraine could have also fished for action info. The Blight was only attacking for 6 that turn, and none of it went through, so there were a minimum of 6 defends. Assuming that Aginor and Moiraine specialed, that gives us 7 actions left. up to 3 elims could have sabotaged, and up to 4 village could have defended along with that. That means at least one of the negated votes is a guaranteed defend. Obviously, that isn't saying much, as there are so many people to split it up amongst. Also, assuming the maximum number of potential villagers defended, it is highly likely Aginor targeted someone who was defending. That brings us up to almost guaranteed that 2(minimum) of those people are village. If the maximum of 3 elims sabotaged, the odds of them all having their vote negated are ridiculously low. There is a 0.8% chance of all of them being negated, and a 4% chance of 2 out of 3 being negated. I'm not confident enough in my Probability calculation to determine the odds of the village. Given this, I feel like we can bring it up to 3, meaning that most likely 3 out of the 5 negated votes belonged to villagers, with there still being a good chance 4 of them were villagers. I could be completely messing this math up honestly, because I came to these conclusions using equations I found online after looking for just a little bit. I still think the results are sound though. Guaranteed: 1 out of myself, Randuir, Aman, (CadCom, Drought, Ark, and Mr Doctor), and (Hemalurgic Headshot, Meta) are village and negated that turn. Highly probable: 2 of the above listed. Probable: 3 of the above. Less Probable: 4 of the above. Unlikely: 5 of the above. So I'm not sure what to make of all this, it seemed a lot more important when I was thinking it all out ahead of time, and as I figured things out it seemed like less of a confirmation of anything. Keep in mind that even though we know Ark and Meta were village, it doesn't guarantee they defended, or were negated that turn. Also, this doesn't mean that any of the people that were negated are elim, it just is very likely several of them are village. I don't even know if any of this makes sense, given that halfway through writing it I got confirmation from the GMs that Fain couldn't Sabotage, and that changed some of the math. So I may have missed a couple places that I needed to change numbers. Onto what's actually been discussed, I had already decided Randuir was village previously, and this new information all but guarantees it. Given their statements about the elim in the Warrior doc, I'll be voting for one of them as well. Might as well attempt to guarantee the BrightnessRadiant lynch.

So if I'm understanding correctly, each great guilds will have a rep, each regular guilds will have a rep, and the chancellor is voted on by the great guilds reps? Or the chancellor is a great guilds rep that the normal reps "promote" to chancellor?

So I'll try to make a bigger post tonight. Am I allowed to link to the Google doc I've been compiling everything in? Or is that against the rules/frowned upon? To clarify, not a game doc, a personal Google doc.

"Carpentry could be useful. We do need to furnish the homes that are repaired. As for the kidnapping, there is an old abondoned building that we were going to repair, and there were several families living in it. When we went there a while ago it turns out that they were all gone, with the exception of a little girl who said that some men came and took her mother and everyone else as well. One of them resisted and the men knocked him out and carried him. The little girl didn't get taken because she hid and they didn't know about her. I'm working on a plan right now to hopefully draw them back, so we can find out what happened. We don't really have any other way of tracking them down. Your expertise could be really helpful in that area." Laonin said this while idly carving a soulstone.

Being a long time MTG player, and knowing a decent amount of Lore, I can say for a fact that there are no limits set into place. Sanderson said that multiple times in interviews as well, that he wanted to try to figure out how the magic works, and having not read Children of the Nameless quite yet, I don't know if he succeeded or not. If he did however, it would be the only time their limits have been stated, with the exception that Planeswalkers now are weaker than the OG Planeswalkers, due to The Mending. They just haven't said how weak. Or how strong.

Laonin took the notes from Ishek. "You do a good job as well Ishek. I apologize for wasting your talents with this. The corrections you made here should help significantly. Perhaps the two of us would be better suited to tag team projects? You could survey a second building while I work on the stamps for the first one, and once I'm done with the first, I could begin work on stamps for the second while you begin surveying a third, and so on. That would maximize the work we could accomplish I think. I want to make sure you're able to apply yourself here." Laonin then turned to the newcomer. The man had a black void where one of his eyes should be. Laonin couldn't help but stare for a moment, but having seen worse he shortly decided to ignore it. "My purpose? Well, my reason for being here is to help people. I feel that for too long the people of the Alleycity have been trod upon by those with power. Anyone without the power to defend themselves gets pushed to the wayside. People with power are left unchecked and allowed to do whatever they want. The last time any number of people got together and tried to do something they started the 7 Day War, and the city still hasn't fully recovered from that. I'm trying to fix that, by trying to fix the problems those responsible have left behind. And I'm doing so in the way I know how, using my skills to reforge the buildings that were destroyed in war, and hopefully by doing so eventually reforge the hearts of the people who were destroyed in it." Realizing he always went on for far too long when he got onto this subject, Laonin stopped himself there. "As for how you can help, that depends. We've been working to reconstruct buildings. We have a couple other people going to obtain resources to help in our endeavor. There was kidnapping recently that I'm currently trying to take care of. And the building next door needs to be renovated as well, to make space for everyone who wants to help out here. What kind of skill set do you have? Knowing that would help me know how you can help." Laonin said this thoughtfully, then turned to Aeodin. "What do you mean, that something is coming? Do you mean that in the literal sense, or the metaphorical sense? Like, an army? Or 'danger'?" @Ookla the Ookspren @ShardBreaker @King Taravangian

Alright, well I'm glad we were able to come to a consensus. Assuming the rest of the DA doesn't have a huge issue with this, which I'm not sure why they would since they are already part of the most powerful guild, and it would only be affecting them if they committed crimes out of DA territory. I really hope that Republic ends up winning in the other thread because it genuinely sounds like a ton of fun and I would love to participate. We'll have to see how it ends up going though I suppose.

Is Mraizearchy was intended as a joke, shouldn't it be discounted as an option? I feel like most people won't want it to be in place, even though a surprising number voted for it, and it's just taking votes away from the places people would really vote for if it hadn't been included. I don't think one person being explicitly in control of everything would work out well, especially given that person is a RPer not a character.

So, we again have a case where the elims took out a relative inactive with no posted suspicions. We also have our first case of a double doc.

The Beavor Abort VHE/VEH/HEV/HVE/EVH/EHV Avert hob The Bo Rave Abhor Vet Lots of others are possible. Those are just the noteworthy(IMO) inclusions.

So the DA wouldn't just immediately wipe out anyone that attempted to enforce the rules on individual members of the DA? I think that could be enough, though if the DA as a guild won't abide by their decisions, then maybe the DA shouldn't be allowed to have a voice in the government. Along the lines of your proposal Voidus. Edit: As long as your territory wasn't threatened.

I think the relevant point is here. The Seer can use their Action during the Night to gift a bead of Atium to another player and bribe them onto the Traitor faction. This takes place at the end of the Night and will fail if the target dies, not costing the Seer any Atium. Coinshots will automatically cost 2 Atium. The Seer does not have to be aware that someone is a Coinshot to bribe them. If they don’t have enough Atium, the Action fails. So Conversion happens in the night, but it would be the last action. And if they tried to convert someone who died it would fail.

Laonin listened to the responses of his companions, but upon hearing nothing more definitive than he had already deduced, decided they probably wouldn't be able to figure it out here. He watched as Aoedin teleported away, to who knows where. The man had many motives and seemed to travel a lot. Given that finding this girl's family was probably more immediately important than fixing the building in question, he made a decision. "Since none of us know who might have taken them, I am going to attempt something a little unorthodox to get the attention of the people who captured her. I will likely need to stay up the remainder of the night working on it, and then in the morning I should be able to implement it. Let's head back to the Forge." Saying this Laonin looked inside once more at the little girl, and then headed back home. Rushing in order to make it back in record time, Laonin say the shipment of materials on his doorstep, and checking the note attached to the delivery, shoved it in his pocket and began transporting it inside the forge. He grabbed out all of his tools, and prepped his work station, readying the forge to be ignited. It was at this point he noticed the stranger there. "Hello there. Are you an associate of Aeodin's? If you need me, I'll be working, just let me know." Laonin took out the beginnings of the soulstamps he had readied for the building, as well as all of the notes me had made. "Ishek, would you mind going over the notes I took on the structural integrity of the building? I believe I addressed all the issues in place, but given your large knowledge banks you could probably catch something I missed, or improve upon a design flaw. I need to begin working on these, so any changes you make just let me know. Assuming you're willing at least." He began writing carving some of the more basic soulstones that would be the building blocks for the others. He described the structure, the changes in it's history that would prevent it from being destroyed in the first place, and the process by which the modifications he had in mind would have happened. He carved, and referenced, and made notes all the while, hurriedly completing his work while also making sure he didn't miss anything. Realizing it was going to be a late night, he began brewing a pot of coffee, to help keep himself awake. Reaching the point where he needed to wait on Ishek's confirmation of his notes, he decided to begin working on another of the projects he needed to complete in order for this to work, Laonin changed his outfit, and was now wearing old, sturdy clothing, and a thick leather apron. Walking over to the forge, he ignited it, piling in coal to begin the process. He then gathered the materials he would need for this to work. He had been theorizing about this particular project for some time, but hadn't taken the time to attempt it. It would indeed be a challenge. Laonin took some steel he had already removed the impurities from, and stuck it in the forge to heat up. In order for this to work well, he needed to maintain a mindset of, change, and indecisiveness, while also being firm in his actions. Pulling the metal out, he began hammering it into submission, changing it's shape to suit his needs, and reheating it whenever needed to maintain it's pliability. Slowly the shape of a sword began to take form, and finishing it with one final strike, Laonin set it down, and grabbed a drink and a small snack for a break. He then went back over to the sword, and shoved it into the forge, reheating it, and hammered it back into shapeless steel. He then proceeded to repeat this process, making the steel into an item, then reverting it back into metal. He made it into a hammer, a pick, a shield, a short-sword, and any number of other things, taking a break between each iteration. After finally running out of things to turn it into, he reverted it back to steel one last time, and finally made it into a rod, about 4 feet in length, something the size of a walking stick. He finally finished that one, and set it down. Having finished that, he then took gold, and began forming it into countless balls the size of gumdrops. These he made quite a lot of, and set the finished products in a crate. Having finished all of that, he checked the time and realized he had already spent over half the night working, but he still had a lot of work to complete in order to finish the tasks he had decided upon. Walking back to the table he had been working on the soulstamps, he looked at Ishek. "So, what were you able to figure out?" @Ookla the Ookspren @King Taravangian @ShardBreaker

Well, regardless of what government type is decided upon, if the DA isn't going to hold themselves accountable to follow any decisions they don't like, regardless of what it is, then no inter-guild government is feasible. As many people have said, the DA, or at least the higher ups, can pretty much do whatever they want and no one will have the power to stop them, so even if the rest of the Alleyverse tried to force them into something they wouldn't budge. (This isn't something I know from personal experience, but based off Ark's comment about the 7 Day War and other things in other places, this is the conclusion I've come to.) I think the only way this would work is if, for whatever reason, the DA agreed to abide by decisions made by the government. Whether that be the higher ups, like Voidus, forcing the rest of them in line or something else. I guess I don't really see this happening, based off what other people have said. If that's the case, and the DA won't willingly go along with things they don't like here, then honestly the whole idea of a government is useless because you can't create a system like this where the most powerful people it would potentially affect aren't going to go along with it, because they could just wipe out or resist any enforcement that anyone tries to place on them. Basically, if not all parties are willing to go along with the groups consensus, regardless of who it benefits, then no one can be expected to go along with it because there is only downside to it. So, if the DA isn't willing to participate and follow whatever happens, then discussion about this should just end here because there's no point in continuing.

But in a Republic even if you aren't the representative you still have power by voting to determine who the representative is. Probably more power because your one vote out of every character is probably less influential than the vote you have in determining rep. Also the rep would still be working for the benefit of TUBA, which benefits you.

I agree that another good reason for us to work together is taking care of the city itself. Also, I believe the point of the government we would be establishing is to create laws, and keep the peace. So yes the laws should be something that are created and judged in RP. Whatever government we end up with shouldn't just take an existing thing and put it in place. Everyone is going to have their own input, and how much that input affects things is going to be dependant upon how the power shifts based off voters. I think this is all going to be amazingly fun to work with. I can't wait.

I think before we can agree on what these restrictions should be, we need to agree on what a reasonable character looks like. I think that most people would agree the three individual investitures with the most power are a Mistborn, a full born feruchemist, and a knight radiant. I could be wrong about that though. Obviously a mistborn can be weakened by restricting to Mistings, and a Feruchemist can be weakened by making Ferrings. The weakest a Knight Radiant can get is 1st ideal. Does a 1st Ideal Radiant sound like a good power level to cap creation at? Or do people think the cap should be higher than that?

I do not, in fact, remember the 7 day war. Due to the fact that I didn't join the Alleyverse until several months after it was over. however I'm not suggesting that we all join up to try to take out the DA. I'm merely saying that if we're looking for an in the universe reason for guilds to work together to create a government, that could be a reason that some of the guilds are willing to try it. And then hopefully, after working together for a while, people would realize the benefits of having a central government and be willing to continue it. Even if an anti-DA coalition never gets off the ground. Also, I've had several end goals in mind for The Forge. In light of the recent attempt for public planning, I'lll state a few of them here. One of my goals for Laonin, is for him to make a lasting impact on the Alleyverse.he doesn't want to simply fix the problems here, he wants to try to prevent them from happening again in the future. One of the ways I saw that maybe being able to happen, is that once he has made an impact and potentially gathered a small following of people, he would stand up to the guilds. Obviously there are many powerful people who wouldn't like that. Considering that Ark has already expressed a desire to kill him, I don't think there would be a shortage of people willing to take him out. I was then hoping that in a sort of act of martyrdom, him sacrificing himself for his goal would inspire the NPC population of the Alleycity to try to hold the guilds accountable for their actions. I don't know if the people living in the city would do that or not, as I'm not sure what their general temperament toward the guilds is, but it's and idea. I don't know if that sounds reasonable to anyone at all, but if that sounds like something that would work that could also be a reason for this to happen. I guess the question is, would the people crying out be enough to sway the guilds into working together? This idea could also be absolutely terrible for all I know. Just s thought.

I really love this idea. For one, if we implemented something like this it would give us a big source of conflict that doesn't involve combat, which I believe is something many people have expressed an interest in. As far as the DA and TUBA not being willing to work together at all, I agree that could be an issue. However, given how things stand currently I honestly don't believe TUBA has much of a chance to take out the DA in a direct conflict, considering that the DA is willing to literally sell their souls in order to gain unlimited power. if TUBA has any hope of ever being able to outmatch the DA, they might likely need the force of the entire Alleyverse alongside them. In order to gain that, they would need to be willing to work with all of the guilds including the DA, to set up a government and then hopefully over the course of time everyone would see the problem that the DA poses. Then potentially if everyone agreed on that, everyone would be able to unite against the DA. It is of course a long shot for TUBA to hope that, but it is a possibility that requires very little effort or risk on their part. I'm also not saying I think the Alleyverse should unite against the DA, as that would be unfair for it's members, but it's something that could get TUBA willing to try. Also, everyone to an extent cares about the Alleyverse, so if you can at least try to make it a better place for everyone, wouldn't it be worth working alongside your enemies to do so? Just my take on it. Obviously representatives of TUBA would need to agree to it but that's my opinion.

I think that if a government exists that voting takes place in, votes should be limited to one per Sharder. Otherwise one person with a dozen characters would have the same voting power as a dozen people with one character. That seems unbalanced to me.

I'm tempted to vote on myself, but taking the risk that through everyone's manipulation I somehow end up being the lynch is stopping me. Therefore I guess I'll go with Furamirionind Edit: Somehow it posted this many responses. I don't see a way to delete any of them? Sorry.

Are you saying that Mat has reached out to you? If so, it would be nice to know for a fact that role is in play. Or are you just shouting out to the aether hoping someone hears you? I can kind of see where you're coming from now, but at the same time I think the more information the village has the more well informed decisions they can make. Why do you think the elims have a reason to target Meta and HH? Also, HH saying his vote was removed or wasn't removed doesn't make him any more or less village/elim. If it wasn't negated, he could have defended, not defended, or sabotaged. If it was negated it means he defended, or sabotaged. or didn't do either and got targeted by Aginor. I think there's a big leap in assumption saying just because someone wasn't negated means they were doing something other than defending.

Would it be more viable for each person who received a pm about it to pm two other people? And to just say something to the effect of them passing it along. That way, it minimizes the amount of PM's needing to be sent and thus minimizes the potential for fraud. And since each person would pass it along no one would know who Seer was. The difficulty would be determining who would post. It could go, 4th person in chain should post. That way the Seeker could just pick a number from 1 to 4 when sending initial message, and everyone just ticks it up when they send. It guarantees the Seeker or anyone else can post it without revealing, and they can also claim someone is lying if something else gets posted in thread.