Karnatheon

I completely understand and agree that if he is village I am probably going to be lynched. I am feeling less confident about my theory now, but if I back down it will probably look even more suspicious. So I'm sticking to it even if it gets me killed. At least if you guys lynch me now, you'll probably be more inclined to suspect him next time? Who knows. Also, I just realized it might be against the rules for me to quote something from a pm. Sorry. I'm very frazzled right now.

Knowing he is Fal Dara still doesn't prove anything about his alignment. Rand, village, elim, or Forsaken could all be in there.

If Fain targets a Hardy player who has already lost one life, will that player die? Unless Fain is roleblocked, yes. See the bottom of page 4 of this

Fifth said that if Fain targeted someone that was Hardy that had already lost a life, the extra life would go away. In essence, you are currently living your extra life. So if you lose it, you have no lives.

Snipexe was Hardy, which means he has an extra life. If Fain targets him, he loses the extra life, and dies. It's the one way that Fain could kill someone, since he can't normally kill.

@Mr Doctor I believe that Rand!Snipexe would still die to Padan Fain. The order of operations listed in the rules doc has Fain going before Green man. And Fifth has stated that if someone is dead before protected, the protection fizzles. I think? Can I get some clarification on this @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue

I didn't see that before somehow. And after reading it, I wish I wouldn't have read it. If I had a headache earlier, I have a massive Rusting headache now. Storms! Who on earth would write that! I assume they all just decided to troll us and make a legal document and all just edit in whatever parts they want to? I need some aspirin...

I'm honestly so brain-fogged after writing that post, I don't even know if I can properly defend it anymore. Basically, I agree the elims would want a mis-lynch. I just don't think they could reasonably expect it to happen without someone pointing it out in a more ambiguous way. I also understand you being frustrated and understand the retaliation vote. At this point, just going to do a vote summary. Droughtbringer(1): Furaminoid. Rathmaskal(1): Randuir. Young Bard(1): Steeldancer. Xino(1): Ark BrightnessRadiant(1): Rath Snipexe(1): Karnatheon Karnatheon(1): Snipexe

Ark1002/Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical Now let me explain. I don't feel any less suspicious of Ark, I'm simply more suspicious of Snipexe. Padan Fain could have killed Snipexe last night. As Fifth said in his rulings/clarification compilation in the N1 thread, if Padan Fain uses his Shadow Within on a Hardy player who has already lost a life, that player dies. So if Padan Fain had done that, Snipexe would have died. Let me list the likely reasons that didn't happen. (Highest Probability)Snipexe is an elim. If Snipexe is an elim then Padan Fain would obviously not want them dead. I feel like this is the most likely reason, as the others I will list have a lot of variables. (Middle Probability)Snipexe is village, Padan Fain wants someone to come to the conclusion I did and get us to lynch them. Since no one has pointed out the Padan Fain kill possibility before now, I feel like this is unlikely. They would be hoping someone figured it out, and came to the conclusion that Snipexe was elim. The only other action Padan could have taken last night was to Sabotage, and I feel like a village kill is worth more to the elims than that, especially since it wouldn't use up their nightly kill action. (Middle Probability)Snipexe is village, Padan Fain didn't know they could do this. Fifth posted his compilation at about 9 am yesterday. That gave Padan 12 hours to see the post, and know they could kill Snipexe this way. I find it unlikely they didn't read it, but maybe the missed that specific part because it was a lot to take in. I feel like at least one elim would have pointed it out to them in the evil doc though, so I find this unlikely. (Second Lowest Probability)Snipexe is village, Moiraine Shielded Padan Fain at random. It is possible that Padan Fain did know they could do this, and tried to eliminate Snipexe using his ability, but Moiraine decided to randomly roleblock someone instead of defending, and the person they roleblocked was Padan Fain. The odds of Moiraine choosing to roleblock over defend are low, and even lower that they picked the 1 out of 18 other possible people.(Not counting Lan or herself, assuming Lan is an active role) (Lowest Probability)Padan Fain doesn't exist. Fifth has stated they will not confirm nor deny that any given role is active in this. The only roles we have confirmation of is that Rand and Perrin roles have been filled. If Furaminoid is telling the truth then that means Balthamel is also confirmed, but I think we can safely assume all evil roles are filled, and most light roles are filled as well. Just had to list it because it was a possibility. Those are the conclusions I drew upon rereading through N1. As people have expressed concern over me only doing rules analysis and not player analysis, I'll give it a shot. I realize a lot of this may be repetition of what others have said, but I feel like doing so helps keep us all in check so no one "misses" something they want people to pass over. Also of note, before I forget. The Emond's Fielder's didn't decide to write an anonymous message for the write up. Probably just means they aren't any more sure on things than we are. Also, clarification from the GMs here? Does the doc need to agree as a majority to submit a specific message they all work on writing together? Or how does that work functionally? @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue Droughtbringer: First post in the game. Says they are confused by rules, and will reread them before making any posts. Reasonable. ```The only post they have made all game. Extremely inactive. Hard to say how I feel about them except a desire for activity. Furaminoid: First one to note the Circle number. Commentary on elim quantity(5), incorrect assumption of Concealed. Quick noting of Rand, Matt, Lan. Math on minimum number of turns we have if no defend happen. 2nd Post: Corrects me on Forsaken group kill. Commentary on role distribution. 3rd Post: Pokes Amanuensis. 4th Post: Summarises/Analyses people. Votes Droughtbringer. 5th Post: Jokes about misunderstanding with BR. N1: 6th Post: Discussion about D1 lynch. Says to pay attention to what people say so they can be caught in lies. 7th Post: Talks about Rings, when we should hold, when we should let it die. Positive effects. 8th Post: Refutes Ark’s accusation of Xino. 9th Post: Clarifies Ring discussion. 10th Post: D2:. Comments on Perrin death. Retracts their progression table in light of how short the game will be. 11th Post: Does some analysis. Votes Droughtbringer again. Mentions they were redirected last night. 12th Post: Rules thing. 13th Post: Discussion/Analysis. Reiterates they are still suspicious of Drought. 14th Post: Math/Ring/Progression discussion. 15th Post: Complains about inactivity so close to turn end. Says they will change vote to Snipexe if needed. ```Overall have been very helpful, provided good discussion. Nothing stands out as suspicious really. Bard: RP post. 2nd Post: RP post, with discussion! Accuses BR. ```Very few posts here. Hard to come to a conclusion. Karnatheon(Me): Lan warning, ends up being irrelevant because of answer to rules question. 2nd Post: Confusion about Forsaken using kills. Commentary on elim quantity(6). 3rd Post: Follow up on confusion about Forsaken kill action. Comments on Randuir’s comments about me. Puts forward concern for Snipexe, and Ark. Also tags Rath. Mentions we should maintain high numbers of votes on players to avoid accidental vote negation/manipulation. 4th Post: RP. 5th Post: Commentary on people doing summaries and analysis. Accuses Ark, and explains reasoning. Votes for Ark. 6th Post: Switches vote from Ark to Snipexe to guarantee lynch. 7th Post: Mentions Rathmaskal and Amanuensis are lurking end of D1. N1: 8th and 9th Post: Clarifies if writeup is intended to show that Snipexe is Fal Dara Warrior, which it isn’t. 10th Post: Gives recommendations to people on what actions to take depending on roles they have. 11th Post: Answers a question about redirects. 12th Post: Response to Fal Dara discussion. 13th Post: Points out that I’m suspicious of Ark for the same reason he is suspicious of Xino. 14th Post: D2: Comments on how Perrin dying affects things. Claims it must mean Mat didn’t pm an elim, which people heavily disagree with. 15th Post: Defends against statements in regards to Mat. 16th Post: Responds to Mark about Mat. 17th Post: Responds to Randuir. 18th Post: Reiterates suspicions about Ark. Votes for Ark. ```Summary of my own posts. Not suspicious of myself but provided for context and to not leave anything out. Randuir: Commentary on Rings and their usefulness. 2nd Post: Commentary on elim quantity(4). 3rd Post: Poke vote on all inactive. Gives some advice to people to defend. Says they think I am village. Gives Furaminoid, Mr Doctor, Devotary a temp pass. Votes for Snipexe and explains why. N1: 4th Post: Brings up math. Discusses Snipexe being Hardy. Reminds people to defend. 5th Post: Says the forgot about Creeper kills when saying losing Rand would be ok, reiterates we shouldn’t depend on Rand for Forsaken kills in late game. 6th Post: Response to Ark. 7th Post: D2: Agrees my statements about Mat are suspicious, lets it slide for time being. 8th Post: Discusses my statements about Mat. Gives me advice. 9th Post: Responds to me. 10th Post: Analysis of players thus far. Seems accurate. 11th Post: Responds to Spinexe’s analysis. Votes for Rath. ```Been very helpful to me in particular. Been very understanding of some of my misunderstandings. Provided lots of good discussion overall. Mr Doctor: Discussion of roles, numbers, and elim quantity(5). 2nd Post: Analysis of people. Seems to accurately reflect what people have been posting, with some interpretation. Posts vote summary but doesn’t vote. 3rd Post: Responds to people. Vote validation. Vote summary. N1: 4th Post: Says they’ve been busy. Comments on Ring progression. Agrees with Devotary on Snipexe, doesn’t like Bard’s suspicions about BR. ```Provided some very helpful analysis on D1. Less active than other people but good content in their posts. Gancho Libre: Response to question on name. ```Only posted once on D1. May be replaced so not much to discuss. Snipexe: Says they won’t be back because of lack of internet, comment on Ring vote negation. N1: 2nd Post: Says they are a Hardy Warrior. Says they will be back for an actual response. 3rd Post: D2: Says they were busy. Votes for Ark. 4th Post: Analysis on why Devotary was killed. 5th Post: Rules thing in response to Furaminoid. ```As stated above I'm voting for Snipexe and am very suspicious of them, just not necessarily for anything they've done. More because of rules interactions and assumptions of elim goals. Cadmium Compounder: Reiterates their activity will be limited. 2nd Post: Says they are very busy irl. ```Very limited activity. BrightnessRadiant: Says they need to read the rules, and will be busy. 2nd Post: Rules confusion. Opinion on people being helpful. Not sure who to vote for. 3rd Post: Player analysis. Discusses elim quantity(5). Seems to accurately summarize what people have been posting. Doesn’t vote. 4th Post: Votes for Snipexe. N1:(I think, might have gotten lost somewhere) 5th Post: Responds to things others have said. 6th Post: Responds to Mr Doctor about choice of vote. 7th Post: RP and OORP response to Bard accusation. 8th Post: Comments on my summary of role actions available. ```Good analysis of people. Lots of confusion about rules, but the rules are very complex so it's understandable. Provided good input. Devotary: Commentary on Rings, turns, comments on profile pic. 2nd Post: Somewhat confusing commentary on role distribution in docs. Small RP. 3rd Post: Clarification on Concealed. Concern about a lack of votes. Doesn’t vote. 4th Post: Response to Mr Doctor about roles and roleless in docs. 5th Post: Response to BR about Ring and turns, how long we can last against the Blight. 6th Post: Discussion of Snipexe role. Cautions Rand claiming. 7th Post: Discusses vote Negation from Ring and Aginor. 8th Post: Corrects Mr Doctor’s Ring calculations. ```Not much to say here. They were Perrin, and are dead now. Ark: Says they are excited. 2nd Post: Says they haven’t paid attention and have no suspicions. 3rd Post: Says they are suspicious of Xino. 4th Post: Says they aren’t elim. 5th Post: Votes Xino. ```Still suspect he is an elim. But again I have very little proof, and it's all a gut read. So I'm keeping my eye on them but going with what I feel is a more secure read. Steeldancer: Says they need to read the rules, and to poke them if they go inactive because they are busy. 2nd Post: Says they don’t know who to vote for because no one seems suspicious. 3rd Post: D2: Says they’re tired and doesn’t remember who they were suspicious of before. 4th Post: Reiterates they’ve been busy. Votes on Bard. ```Have been pretty inactive. Didn't vote D1 so not a lot of information here. Rathmaskal: Small RP. Poke vote on Xino. 2nd Post: Retracts poke vote, says they will return. 3rd Post: Says they missed the deadline on D1 vote, even though they were lurking on thread when it happened. ```A little suspicious about them because they were reading the thread for at least the last 30 minutes or so of D1. They didn't vote, and didn't do anything during N1. Most recent post not factored into this because I've been working on this for too long already. Xinoehp: Responds to poke vote. ```Nothing to go off of really. Lots of inactivity from players this game. MetaTerminal: Comments on rules headache. Votes for Bard. N1?: 2nd Post: Defends random vote. Says they will stick to player analysis because they think rules analysis is covered. 3rd Post: D2: Says they’re busy. Voices concern that Furaminoid and Snipexe may be some combination of elim/village. ```Posted a little bit. At least made a vote D1, which is more than others have done. Stink: Says they won’t be active because of laptop. ```Nothing to say here. Hemalurgic Headshot: Checks in. ```Again, nothing. Mark: Checks in N1 due to Medical emergency on D1. 2nd Post: Asks BR about their activity, seems to suspect them? 3rd Post: D2: Says my post about Mat seems elimy. 4th Post: Discusses my statements about Mat. 5th Post: Tells me how to do colors on mobile. 6th Post: Small discussion/analysis of a couple people in response to Randuir. ```Seems suspicious of me, but their points are valid. Amanuensis: Checks in N1. Claims to be busy with life. ```Nothing. I've been working on thie for 2-3 hours now. So I'm going to submit it now. I was hoping to get it in before the 2 hour mark but oh well.

@Sorana

I could see this plan working sometimes, but also backfiring other times. Like, if I had a character that was head of a guild, and someone else had a character that was my second in command, what's to stop the other person from assassinating my character to gain power? I know some guilds probably wouldn't do that, but I also think there are other guilds that would be willing to do that. The fact that this is possible doesn't necessarily make it a bad idea, but just something to think about when making the decision. If Guild leadership gets changed on a regulars basis, it's going to make it really difficult for any stability in that Guild. It's new leader might have different objectives than the past one, and thus nothing might ever get done.

So I will be doing a more in depth analysis later, but just to get some discussion going, I'm going to be voting for Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn/Ark1002. Unfortunately I don't see the button to change text color on mobile, so it technically won't count as a vote right now but at least gets my thoughts out there. As I stated on D1, I know Ark to be a very active member on the Shard. He has been at least somewhat active on other parts of the forum since the game has started. He has posted only two or three times in thread, with almost no discussion or contribution in those posts. I suspect he is probably more active than we know of, but that he is an elim and is active in their doc specifically. He may also be active in other docs but that seems less relevant. This is more of a gut feeling, with little to no evidence, since he has posted almost nothing like I said. With 12 hours left this turn(I believe), people should have plenty of time to debate this and refute it. As opposed to D1 where I made these points in the last hour of the turn. So again, I will be making this an official vote once I get desktop access in like 7 hours and can change text to red.

Alright, well thanks for the tip. I guess I won't defend myself from now on then?

I agree that it should be pointed out. The only way we can figure out who the elims are is by catching mistakes like that. The question then has to be was it an honest mistake, manipulation/redirection, or an elim slipping up in their facade? Obviously I'm not going to argue to say that I'm an elim, because I'm not, and even if I was I would be trying to convince you I wasn't. I'm trying not to use it as a crutch, but figured I would point it out since others have mentioned it, yes this is my first game. Not trying to use that to influence you, just pointing it out since you brought it up.

I didn't realise me saying the elims would want to kill Mat would be so controversial. I guess I had been thinking about it more from a perspective of assuming the elims would want to kill people with special roles first. I know that if I was Mat and pm'd someone, and didn't die that night, I would be inclined to believe they were village. I realise this continues to strengthen the point against me of it sounding like I am elim and Mat pm'd me, but I wanted to explain my reasoning. Having read your guys' thoughts on the subject, I can see your point. I still think that Mat probably has more potential to cause the elims problems than to be able to be manipulated successfully, but it all depends on how skilled the elims are at manipulation. I will be rereading through everything again after work to pin down some suspicions, but currently still thinking in the same general direction as D1.

So, quick analysis. Ookla the Heretical. They die so young. It's unfortunate we lost Perrin so early. I wonder if they defended Snip and because of that couldn't defend themselves, or did something else, guess we have no way of knowing. If so, sorry on my part for recommending that course of action. Anyway, it seems unlikely the elims knew they were Perrin, unless they were somehow revealed in the Emonds Fielder doc. They did a lot of good math on Rings, defending, and such things D1, with some follow up N1. I guess that was enough for the elims to target them then. They didn't seem to be overly suspicious of anyone, though I only did a fast reread so I may have missed something. So most likely not a retaliatory kill to stop them from persecuting someone they were correct in thinking was an elim. Since their math was most likely why they died, tjat means the elims think it is important so we should remain vigilant on that front to ensure we don't get careless with defense. Also, since Perrin was taken out, that means that if Mat did PM someone N1 they probably didn't PM an elim. Because I imagine they would want to kill Mat as soon as possible because more safe conversation for the village is bad for them. There are probably more things I'm not thinking of at the moment but figured I would get this out there while it was fresh in my mind.

So I know we've discussed lots of possibilities, and I know most people dislike the pointbuy system, which I'm ok with not having. What do we want to actually do though? How are we going to weaken characters? There are lots of plausible solutions but which is right?

Laonin looked Aeodin. "So did that fix you? Are you alright? Should we maybe try to stick together to prevent something like this from happening again? You're more than welcome to accompany Ishek and myself. Unless you are needed elsewhere." @King Taravangian @Ookla the Ookspren

The same happened to you. I poke voted you and you never even posted a response. All you have said is you will enjoy this game and that you didn't read day 1.

How can they prove they are a Fal Dara warrior? No one can vouch for them because the docs are all anonymous. The Green Man can already protect Rand directly, he doesn't need to know who Rand is.

I know that you are informed if you are roleblocked, so I assume the same for redirection.

As people have said, the rules can be kind of confusing, so here is some recommendations. Village: If you have no other special action you want to take, make sure to defend. This current ring gives a chance at protecting you from the kill, so doing so benefits us as a whole and also nenefits everyone individually. Mat: if you haven't already, you should make sure to pm someone during this turn. The odds are highly in favor of that person being village, and you can glean some useful information from it. I believe you are restricted to making a single pm to only one person, and that the gms should be included in it? Maybe some clarification on that @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue Perrin: As Randuir said, Snipexe might become a target of the elims this turn, unless they are elim themselves. So choose for yourself here I guess. They may also choose to avoid Snipexe now because they will suspect that they will be protected. Moiraine: Again, this is mostly your call on who, or even if, you want to roleblock someone. The only one we know anything about is Snipexe, but even there we don't know much. Lolial: I could be wrong, but I feel thst unless you have been contacted by Mat via pm you probably don't have a lot to communicate at this point. You obviously could choose to document your suspicions, but as the Blight is attacking for 5 tonight, defending may be a wise choice. Green Man: It's probably always going to be worth it for you to protect Rand(the role jist to clarify, not Randuir). The single defend action you could give us probably isn't worth the chance of Rand dying so soon. Emond's Fielders: Quiet Murmers reads like a passive, more so than an action. So if you all feel like you have something worth saying, go for it. Clarification that it doesn't count as an action? @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue I don't think we have any specific worries from the Forsaken this turn. Balthamel can switch someone's action to a different target, but unless they know a lot more than we do they should also be just as clueless as we are about roles. Same with Agents. They obviously have the kill, and sabotage, but nothing else too devastating as far as special actions. I was about to say something about Padan Fain being really dangerous because he could cancel someone's passives, buffs, and protections, then the elims could kill them. But rereading it I believe that would also protect them from the kill because it negates all actions taken against them, so he again isn't too devestating without knowledge of roles. Just some thoughts and analysis on the roles in play, as we don't really have any more to go on from a player analysis perspective. To reiterate, if you aren't taking a different action, please be sure to defend this turn. We need as many defends as possible to make it through the night tonight, and the extra protection from the kill will be beneficial to everyone. Edit: In response to wounded Giselle, if Snipexe is protected and is Aginor, that will be bad yes, because they will no longer be targeted by us for a while I assume. However, losing Rand almost guarantees we lose the game. We no longer have a way to kill Creepers, and we no longer have a Forsaken kill once we reach the eye. Worst case, if Snipexe does get attacked/protected tonight, and turns out to be Aginor, they could just be the first person Rand targets once we get to the Eye. Don't undervalue Rand's importance here. We'll quickly lose to Creeper overrun without him.

Ok. I assumed that was the case I just wanted to double check. Thank you for the clarification. So we still don't know Snipexe's role, because he could be the main good guy, the main bad guy, or literally anyone.

So, SnipExe was Hardy. That really doesn't help give any information about them. Except their possible roles. They could be Rand, a Fal Dara warrior, or Aginor. @Ookla the White-Cloaked is the description intended to give the impression that Snipexe is a Fal Dara warrior? Because based off of how it was written that's how I feel. Or was it just a write up and should provide no idea as to what their role is? It says he isn't a warrior, because he's a scribe, but then the actual "fight" seems to imply otherwise, kind of. Could be reading too much into it. Edit: We also know that no vote manipulation happened, though with the 3 to 1 in favor of Snipexe it probably didn't make any sense to try manipulating anyway.

And the wait begins. Interested to see how things turn out come the write up.