Elandera
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Hmm... That is very curious. @Rathmaskal, I'd like to hear your reasoning for that vote.
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I'd argue that much of the evidence against Rath is somewhat circumstantial and could easily be attributed to a villager trusting the wrong people. While I was intitially suspicious because of some of those interactions, I find Rath's vote to break a tie in favor of Straw unusual for an elim. Rath hadn't been under much scrutiny yet, so bussing Rand to gain trust would have been unnecessary. However, I do see much of what I have against Jon is circumstantial as well, but I still believe it's the better option as of right now. I may agree with Rath though in starting to look at the less active voters.
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Part of my reasoning was that Randuir also stated suspicions of Elenion for most of the early cycles (I think 1 and 2), yet he never voted on him. So ruling out people based simply on who Rand found suspicious is faulty. I started looking for other similar trends to see who he vaguely stated was suspicious, but who he never took action against. That included Doc12 and Jondesu. The only time Rand voted on Jon was D3 when he voted late then switched it at the last minute to Devotary. I found that could easily have been a no-risk distancing vote. I combined that with a look at voting patterns. I do still feel comfortable voting on Jon unless someone can come up with a better option. I don't like lynching anyone who isn't elim. As for my vote on Walin, I was by no means attempting to save Rand. I had been away from the game for a few days and was called in as a pinch-hitter during that time away. I had only a few hours to read through pages of posts on mobile before taking action. At that time, my vote was largely based on Drake's reasoning for voting on Walin. I didn't feel comfortable voting on Rand or Straw because I hadn't had sufficient time to get any reads on them. I had no intention of starting a bandwagon on Doc, I wanted to start discussion. I provided a reason for my vote, and was very surprised to see people accept it without providing additional reasoning. I kept my vote there 1. because a better counterlynch never picked up and 2. although I started to doubt myself near the end, I still felt Doc was a better option. Clearly I was wrong. EDIT: Also, why would elim!me try to save Randuir by voting on Walin who had only one vote before mine? If I wanted to save Rand, I would have voted on Straw.
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Val claimed Man in Black several cycles back and was never counter-claimed. While I'm not fully willing to trust that, I'm also unwilling to lynch her because of the high probability of a mislynch. Fifth, I'm not set on a Jondesu lynch, but it's the best working theory I have so far. But as I said after analysing the D2 votes, I'll look into Sart a bit more. How I feel looking into the elim!Sart theory:
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Lily stood, staring at her own hands in horror. What had she done? She had arrived back from the fire swamp and been appalled that things had turned into such a bloodbath, with her fellow pirate killing each other. Now she had joined them. But what was done was done. Besides, the ones really to blame were the Prince and Count. They and their guards had hidden among the pirates like cowards. They are the ones who have killed from the shadows, unwilling to face their enemies like real men. When she found them, she would kill them. No, a simple death was too good for such foul men. She would make them suffer for the death of each of her friends. She had heard rumors of a pit they used to test the limits of a human body, the limits of how much pain one could stand before giving up. Lily's plan for them was much, much worse. Oh, she would use the pit if she could find it, but she was also skilled with fire. Kay Oss may be a personality of the past, but Lily remembered what it was like to be a pyromaniac. She would use knives bathed in fire to sear skin without letting them bleed out. She would use the flames to scar and maim so that even if she decided to let them live, they would not be recognized as nobility but shunned and feared as creatures. She may even decide to free the six-fingered Count from his unnatural burden, leaving him without even hands. Lily would make them pay for their cowardice . ---------------------------- Well, that took a turn for the dark. Anyways, on to voting. I'm going to go with Jondesu for now, until I have a chance to go back through and more thoroughly review Sart. Snipexe is also among my top suspicions at the moment.
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Why is that?
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An understandable move. I didn't particularly care who used it, other than the probability it clears them. My point was before the use of rum, the vote was tied between who we now know is an eliminator and someone likely cleared (to nearly everyone but Fifth, apparently). One of those three votes would probably have been an eliminator trying to save Elenion. EDIT: I thought of something else that might actually support Fifth. D2 was between Elenion and Sart, but Elenion didn't vote to save himself. I find that very odd, because he stayed fairly active. I need to go back and review a bit more, but it could be a sign that Sart is the Prince. At that time we still had the Spaniard, so having a tracker would actually have been useful. Randuir voted on Devotary and Bort on Doc12. Why did neither of them step in to try to save Elenion? It would have been easy for just one of them to place a vote on Sart. Unless they had an agreement when it started to go to Sart vs Elenion to let Elenion die. I need to look at Sart's specific voting patterns to be sure. (I kind of feel like I'm going a bit tin-foil-hat-conspiracy-theorist with this one.)
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I'm really hoping Doc flips elim, if nothing else but to justify that bandwagon. Either way, there are still more elims out there. From what I'm reading of other's posts Jondesu is next on many people's lists. I also think we should look at the voting on D2, when Elenion was killed. The vote should have been tied between Elenion and Sart, but someone used a rum on Snipexe. It's possible there was at least one elim vote on Sart during that cycle as it had the most likelyhood of saving Elenion. Those votes included Devotary, Snipexe and Straw. Between Snipexe and Straw, I'd probably say Snipexe was more likely to be elim. The other probability is that an elim was among those who didn't vote. There were at least five active eliminators that turn, so it shouldn't have been quite so easy to kill Elenion had all of them been active. It's why I have been suspicious of Doc12 and Jondesu. The others that didn't vote that cycle include Walin, Manukos/ElephantEarwax, HH, Dalinar Kholin, Mr. Doctor, Elandera/Coop, and Burnt Spaghetti/MarkIV. Of that group, I'd like to hear more from Burnt Spaghetti and Manukos. Everyone else I consider at least slight village at this time.
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I've been able to review posts from Doc12, Jondesu, and Rathmaskal to dig deeper into my gut reads. (Sorry for the double post. It's been a few hours and I've been trying to see if someone else would respond, but I'm running out of time.) Rath, I officially remove you from my suspicion list. Your interactions with Rand seemed genuine villager. As for the other two, I'm leaning towards them both being elim. Jondesu - I'm most suspicious because of the interaction with Randuir at the end of D2. He placed a vote on Doc12 that seems to me like a distancing tactic (saying Rand and Devotary we're both village and jokingly that the vote was a scheme by Doc12). Randuir followed it with short-lived vote on Jondesu for too much pre-knowledge. Both of those posts feel like distancing to me. If you want to read them, they're on pages 17 and 18 of the other thread. Later interactions between the two included Rand casting the same kind of suspicion onto Jon as he did on to Elenion. Slight reads based on small things, almost mentioned in passing. It wasn't enough to draw attention, but would be enough to distance themselves should one of them flip elim. Doc12 - Reading through his posts didn't make me feel any better. His interactions with Rand and Elenion feel very much like those between Rand and Elenion themselves. In each case, they mentioned keeping an eye on the other, but they never acted in it. Neither Jon nor Doc voted on D2 or D4, when Elenion and Bort were lynched. Doc didn't post at all D2. Jon made a few posts, but nothing really substantial and all when Elenion wasn't in much danger of lynch. I will say, however, there were a lot of people who didn't vote that cycle (Elenion included), which is why we ended up getting our first elim with only three votes. Of the people still alive, Walin and Manukos(ElephantEarwax) have placed no votes at all. Snipexe, Jondesu, Doc12, Val, Elandera(Coop772), Burnt Spaghetti (MarkIV), and Elbereth have not placed a vote on a confirmed elim. HH, Straw, Mr. Doctor, and Rathmaskal have all placed only one vote on a confirmed elim. Fifth Scholar, Dalinar, and Sart have placed 2 or more votes on confirmed elims. Only Sart has a perfect record of having voted on all three confirmed elims. (Drake would be on that list if he weren't mostly dead.) I know that doesn't necessarily mean anything because of bussing, but I'm not really sure there's been any of that so far.
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That's honestly all it was, a vague suspicion based on something I read a few cycles back (which I doubt I could find again at this point). I wrote it more as a reminder to myself to go back and review your posts a little bit more, and your placement of votes. Now after looking a bit closer, I'm sliding you back to slight to mostly village on my read-scale. I apologise for the bad read. It's what happens when I review things on too-little sleep. 1. I got the impression the tunnel on Sart was mostly innocent. From what I could tell of Snipexe, his activity was low at the beginning and I can understand not fully reading everything. If in his skimming, he caught something suspicious in Sart's words, I could understand a tunnel. It would be unusual elim behavior to be that focused. However, I'm not ruling him out just yet because I'm suspicious of everything and everyone. 2. And that's what I get for not knowing what elim roles can do. I assumed either the Count or Prince had some useful ability, but you're right. At this point, they're just as useful as the guards. Either way, I still consider Straw mostly cleared. 3. I appreciate this. It was somewhere in between a poke vote and a lynch vote. I still do consider Doc12 to be among likely elims, but I didn't necessarily want to start a bandwagon so quickly. I invite others as well to share their own reasonings. EDIT: I forgot to respond to Doc! @Doc12, that sounds like solid reasoning for why you voted on Straw. How do you feel about his alignment now? I am going to leave my vote on you, but that might change once I review your posts a bit more.
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I'd have to go back and review his posts specifically, but from what I remember in my review last night I didn't get much of a read at all. It's enough for me to be suspicious, especially at this point in the game. I'd probably put him third on my list of elim suspects, with Doc 12 and Rathmaskal in the lead.
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Alright, I've spent several hours reading through all of the cycles so far (admittedly skimming through RP and some of the longer analysis posts that weren't from confirmed elim). I had a strong focus on Randuir's interactions, and here's what I came up with. Randuir's reads (on still living players) summarized: Elenion's reads (on still living players) summarized: At the moment, I'm somewhat suspicious of Doc12. Both elims who offered analysis on him put him at neutral to village. I know that doesn't say much, considering lots of people fall into that category, but I also consider Doc's vote during the last cycle. Towards the end, he voted on Straw as Randuir was in a solid lynch lead and asked Drake and others to consider making the vote closer. This could have been an effort by an elim team member to help save Rand and create a mislynch on Straw. @Doc12, I'd like to hear your response, because despite my vote, I would still place you at neutral to only slight elim. Here are my reads so far on everyone else still alive: Most village: Sart - His voting history suggests a strong likelihood he's village. I find it unlikely that an elim!Sart would have bussed every one of his teammates when there were other options at the time. Mr. Doctor - He seems to be a genuine new village player who wants to offer help. Fifth Scholar - He was one of the major players in pushing for a Randuir lynch the last few cycles. Unlikely elim behavior. Probably village: Hemalurgic - He's been probably village for a lot of people since knowing that Roadwalker falsely claimed Miracle Max. Since then, nothing has really stood out about his posts to change that view. Straw - It is likely that he is village with Randuir flipping elim and having pushed for a Straw lynch. If Straw had been either the Prince or Count, I would assume Randuir would sacrifice himself (being a guard only) to save one of the more important roles. Val - Placed here for the Man in Black claim that has yet to be refuted. However, they've contributed very little since then. Slightly Village: Dalinar Kholin - He also pushed for a Randuir lynch two cycles before it actually happened. This, however, could have been a distancing tactic. Some of the other interactions he had with confirmed elims seemed a bit odd. That's why it's only slightly village at this time. Walin - See my night post for an explanation why I now put him at slight village. Neutral: Elbereth - Pretty obvious why I'd place them as Neutral, seeing as they claimed the neutral role. Slight village: Doc12 - See above explanation. Rathmaskal - This was another one where I feel some of the interactions may have been a bit odd, combined with only voting on Randuir after several votes had already been placed. On the other hand, he was offered a chance to move it onto Straw as a possible last-minute swing, but he chose to keep it. Only a very slight elim read at this time. No read: Manukos (ElephantEarwax) - Too few posts from both. Snipexe - Though there have been a decent number of posts from Snipexe, there have been few actual interactions that might give alignment indication. Jondesu - Same as Snipexe BurntSpaghetti (MarkIV) - Same as Manukos @manukos, when someone is killed (lynched or elim-killed) they will only be mostly dead. Miracle Max (or someone to whom Max as given a pill) can use a miracle pill to revive the player within a turn, bringing them back to life. For example, if Mr. Doctor were to be lynched this day turn, Max or one of the pill-holders could use an action to give Mr. Doctor a pill during the night turn. Mr. Doctor would then return to activity the next day turn. So far, this has only happened once - to revive Elbereth who has claimed Max.
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Why do you say Drake was confirmed village? It may have been something I missed, but I had a fairly neutral-to-slight village read on him thus far. I'd now venture to say he's pretty solidly village, but only after he was attacked. Regarding Walin, I'd have to agree with Dalinar on this. Bort's vote D1 was placed on Walin when he could have still been a viable lynch target. It wasn't something I noticed when I voted on him during the last day cycle (I was on mobile and still driving home from camping for a few days. I had a lot to catch up on and not a lot of ability to read through all of the previous cycles). It's possible Drake was chosen as a lynch target because he said something that hit a little too close to home for the elim team, or to cast suspicion on Walin because Drake had targeted him. The latter, however, is getting me stuck into an WIFOM loop. I still need to go through all of the cycles I missed, so I'll abstain from voting for now. Instead, enjoy some RP! It's actually fairly easy to pick up after someone who had multiple personalities. ------------ Kay Oss, Amy Skate... those were names of ancient history. She was Lily now. Kay Oss, the reformed pyromaniac, had led her into the Fire Swamp seeking the legendary flame spurt. Instead she had come face to face with death, rearing its mighty head in the form of ROUSs. Rodents. They're awful they are in their normal size, let alone an unusual size. If nothing else had come out of her near-death experience, at least it had chased away the other personalities. For now. But she left death's doorstep just to arrive at a death-themed party. She had returned to the castle knowing she had a job to do, and found her companions dying around her-- some even at the hands of their allies. Even more appalling was the thought that some among them were not allies at all, but treacherous thieves and murderers: a "Prince" whose crown might be more fitting if made out of the matter extruded from the wrong end of a cow, and a six-fingered Count who Lily guessed couldn't count to ten even with the extra help. It was time for a mighty return for Lily, formerly known as Kay Oss and Amy Skate. It was time to ignite a revolution, overthrow a corrupt government ruled by fools. It was time for... a nap.
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Alright, I'm going through the cycles to see what I can glean from the posts and votes. Here's what I've gotten so far: 1. Though I'm not a fan of Walin's choice to abstain from voting, I'm inclined to shift my read on him back to neutral. Bort (now a confirmed elim) voted on Walin during D1 at a time that easily could have placed Walin up for lynch. It was before the Bugsy-Araris-Elenion battle began and was the second vote on Walin, so I doubt it would have been a bussing or distancing vote. Though Bort did say he was tired and hadn't had the chance to read, I find it unlikely he hadn't checked to see who was on his team. 2. Have we ever confirmed how many members were in the elim team? Looking back at their win-con, they don't have to kill all of village, just outnumber village. If there were five (which I'm thinking is probable considering the original game post stated people were sent out in groups of five), three are left. There are 17 living or mostly-dead players, minus at least three elim and one neutral (Max), leaves us with 13 village with only the Giant remaining as an active Village role. If Randuir is village, that leaves the count 12-3. I'm not great with LyLo math (or, you know, math in general), so I'll leave it there. 3. On the subject of the Giant, @Steeldancer, they won't even go mostly dead during a lynch, correct? If that's the case, I hope we don't end up accidentally lynching the Giant. It would immediately give away their role and make them a big target for elim kill. Since it would take two pills to revive him, it would need to be a coordinated effort from Max and those he's sent pills to in order to save him. That's going to have to be it for now. There are a lot of posts to go through for me to fully catch up, but I'll try to get there before the end of the next day cycle.
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Alright, I've had a bit of time to review some posts. It's not enough to do a full analysis, but I can offer up some gut reads. Early on (while still just a spectator) I had a bad gut read on Fifth. That has lessened some, but my suspicions aren't enough for me to lynch him. I'm uncertain about Rand. From what I've seen, it's relatively neutral. At this point, being that neutral is rather suspect. However, I'm unsure I'm willing lynch a fairly active player without a solid elim read. I have no read to offer on Straw, so I will decline putting my hat in that ring. I find myself agreeing most with Drake's read on Walin. Some of his interactions with confirmed eliminators have been... odd. So, I find myself pointing the finger of suspicion at Walin.
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Hello, I'm here now! I've been camping out of cell service range and am now driving home. I don't have a whole lot of ability to weigh in just yet, but I will try to vote before the end of the cycle.
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I'm currently making my way through the Arc of a Scythe series by Neal Shusterman. It's not a fantasy, but set in a "perfect" future, where the world no longer experiences natural death and it's run by a benevolent AI. There's one group outside its control: the Scythes. It was created by the AI to "glean", or kill, people to curb an unsustainable population growth. It's a fascinating series, though only two books are out currently. -
Guess That Cosmere Character! Forum Edition!
Elandera replied to Kidpen's topic in Forum Games & Random Stuff
You are correct! -
Guess That Cosmere Character! Forum Edition!
Elandera replied to Kidpen's topic in Forum Games & Random Stuff
Sorry, I should rephrase. They live on Sel. -
Guess That Cosmere Character! Forum Edition!
Elandera replied to Kidpen's topic in Forum Games & Random Stuff
New round! This character appears on Sel. -
Perfect timing for me. I'll sign up as Ela, a Skaa thief that wants to one day scam each of the different Ministries in Luthadel.
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Guess That Cosmere Character! Forum Edition!
Elandera replied to Kidpen's topic in Forum Games & Random Stuff
Dockson? -
Both of those would be amazing! There are so many good moments in Oathbringer I wish I could draw out. That is pretty amazing artwork, but the scene I described in the spoiler tag had caught my attention while listening to the book. I had a pretty cool mental image of it and was wondering if anyone had decided to draw it out. I would, if I had any skill for art beyond basic Photoshop and stick figures.
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Elandera replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
13 hours? I was wondering when that order was placed. And it was a perfect storm against me, with a roleblock, vote manipulation, and your Ciridae choice. @xinoehp512, why was it you chose to put Drought's vote on me? (And CadCom, I'm female . Don't worry about it, I've made that mistake plenty of times and you're not the first to have made it with me.) -
Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Elandera replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Congratulations to the Edema Rue and the Sithe! You had some helpful skill and a whole lot of luck on your side. It was fun for me while it lasted. I learned I am a terrible Elim , though it was only my first time and I was only given one cycle to test my abilities (thanks Orlok, I partially blame you). That answer will probably be in the Secret Rules doc (I haven't read it yet myself), but it was one of Encanis' secret abilities. They had an unblockable "kill" that banished someone from existence. Essentially, they became a spectator (even got sent to the spec doc instead of the dead doc). I want to congratulate @Devotary of Spontaneity for her excellent playing despite losing teammates so quickly. The odds really were stacked against you. It was fun reading your monologue in the elim doc. Sorry for creeping so much!
