Salmon Meerkat

what in the name of athena did i just read edited to add: you think beagle is more suspicious and have devoted energy to getting her lynched but suddenly swing onto rhino? sorry friend reads evil to me

I'm just going to have to argue I think your pool is mistaken, frankly I'm aware of the factors surrounding your later suspicions/votes, just considering whether it's really worth brawling about that in thread. I mean. I'm kel, but I'm aware that the player I'm impersonating may or may not have certain opinions on that >> I do want to talk about this though, because it dovetails with my Mouse and Dragonfly worries. I'm glad Dragonfly is speaking more because before that, I was worried they were in their lurker Elim meta (which I have maaaaybe seen once or twice forever ago but Dragonfly doesn't do inactive play, thank goodness.) I agree with Dragonfly's assessment of D5 Mouse but I still think D2 Mouse feels like a newer player following more experienced teammates onto a train. Edited to add: Again, it's not as though there's no response for this - it's that the thread is not a suitable place for this at the moment After all, she was in my lowest suspicion tier as well last Night. I basically just think that Beagle is Falcon #2 here, and that Cham and Hyena were tipping her for a secondary exe. Her response D3 to my scan was on balance a bit too blatant in slow-walking and obstruction to be Elim - Hyena just bit without blinking but that's to be expected from Hyena, she didn't engage with me in PMs on it, which I think doesn't fit with how Hyena's entire team seems to have been instructed to talk to me about it, and her responses just read like genuine confusion rather than Cham's MO of being an Elim trying to sow doubt about the poisoned train but not stick out from the crowd.

I'm not against infolynches in a suspect pool. But you don't just up and infolynch someone who wasn't in your pool in the first place. I'm the Last Son of House Urbain. I get paranoia. I am very paranoid, as Falcon and Hyena discovered. But we have people lower in the pool who need to be pressed. This is not the time to go back to the higher tiers to infolynch. Clear the lower, then go higher.

I'll be honest I don't agree with you on Beagle and I think you're tunnelling a bit :/ I'd...I hesitate to say more strongly because you read very V to me, and of course, since I should officially confirm this now beyond a shred of doubt for everyone, Swan scanned you Village Thug N3 so I know, logically, you have to be Village, but this feels like a paranoia spiral too far and a distraction from when we should be applying pressure to Mint Heron and the semi-actives. I think Beagle's D3 response read to me more V than E, and I feel like I'm currently more inclined to read Hyena's and Cham's defense of Beagle as precisely what you claim they should have done - setting up a convenient fall Villager for when/if they did flip. Falcon was the explicit target whom Hyena tied himself to, and Beagle the secondary. I'm glad we both agree though on Flamingo. Still leaning Village for her, especially for D4 and the attempted D3 CW.

I think the other issue for me with this is the more I think about it, the more I'm not really sold immortal Lurchers are the biggest threat here: AG Tyrian Lurchers have always been immortal, with no targeting restrictions. This feature carried over into LG74 as well. This is the first game which prevents them from Lurching consecutively. So I'm not sure about the extent to which immortality is a major deterrent in this ruleset. Elims' wincon isn't to kill everyone. It's to outnumber. There are a number of ways to handle immortal Lurchers, including lynching them, or misleading/pocketing them, or simply killing everyone around them. I would agree this could be a problem if certain specific players are immortal but as a GM, I'd be happy to nuke any distro which, for instance, featured immortal Lurchers Vulture and Hyena. Just no >> I feel like you could have a potentially mechanically unwinnable game scenario but that requires edge cases where the Lurchers and few Elims are left at lylo and I feel those are edge enough that they may not weigh unduly on the distro process. At least, my process has always been to rule out edge cases I deem extremely unlikely to happen. As you pointed out, distrust issues. No knowing if a claimed Seeker is Village. And we still have no sight of who sent the Tineye message D1, and if Hyena did or did not rand Pewter N3. I agree with you we don't have full sight of the distro now - I just think that I am okay with - for the moment - softclearing the player who Lurched me, though maybe I'm biased since this lets me break my longest survival record in a Tyrian AG by two (2) whole cycles Agreed about Elim risk tolerance being a question, certainly. For me, I'm happy to bracket it currently while poking around to try to get more out of our lurkers and semi-actives. Noting that Rhino's last log-in time was on Monday at 0807hrs, GMT+8, which means that Rhino last logged in an hour before D5 rollover and then absconded and never showed up again for the entire Night. As Fifth and El have stated in a clarification that they do not accept doc orders, the only way Rhino could have survived is if they were a Thug or they were Lurched. Both raise ever more questions.

Okay, but if I got Lurched by an Elim Lurcher, you're saying that a team who has lost three members was willing to forgo the kill to do a WGG variant on me to softclear the Lurcher? I feel like if you believe that the lack of resistance to Cham's lynch was due to lack of resources on the Spiked team's part rather than lack of willingness, you should also be lightly committed to the notion that willingly giving up a kill this cycle is hard for them. Because I'm the Tineye who's been sending beautiful art each Turn The only way I could plausibly survive is if I got Lurched. And what if the Elim team had, for instance, two or three Mistborn as well? Would that change your calculus? N5 actually. D5 I was hoping someone would bite on your CW so I could get more info But in short, there's a certain amount of vote count disorganisation that reads V/E to me at the end of D2. Could you guys have been putting on that show? I suppose; it's not implausible. But I lean V/E for the moment which means a light commitment to V!Alb rather than E!Alb for now. Mint Heron - I lean V on Heron in reads but I feel like the cycle is young and Heron can take some pressure because I'm less fond of Heron's side-train dominance and voting patterns. If we think there was some form of Elim action D5, then the question is whether Heron was indulging in splinter train tactics or not to take the pressure off Cham. I also dislike Azure Mouse's votes: D5 is okay, nothing extraordinary, but it comes in a cycle where I feel we are mildly committed to the notion Cham was bussed. This requires me to believe at least one of <Zebra, Mouse, Albatross> is Evil, due to my current credences, though we can throw Flamingo inside as an outsider possibility if we want to, I guess. Of the three of them, @Azure Mouse is the one I have most ??? about. D2, Azure Mouse shows up for no reason to vote Iguana and follows Hyena and Cham. From my read of how Azure Mouse was engaging with the game, this looks like a more inexperienced Elim following teammates onto a train, and would be happy to pursue that line of questioning further. I recognise it's unfair to Mouse 2.0 to expect them to be able to account for the actions of their predecessor, but I have to say that's my current view of that vote. @Ivory Dragonfly oh hello there

Edited to add: Will dedicate this one to Burnt, if ye be playin.

You are almost correct there When I said they were on death row, I did not mean it as a threat (since the Coinshot does their own thing) but as a statement of fact. Dragonfly and Elephant have not posted in 3 turns, or 1.5 cycles. Failure to post by the end of D6 will likely result in their death (by the inactivity filter) as I understand the GMs have run short of foolhardy volunteers willing to throw themselves into the meatgrinder to save Tyrian Fal- ah, apologies, I meant pinch-hitters. They're short of pinch-hitters now. We've been too profligate I strongly suspect they are filter-dodging as they have fairly decent login times, but there's only so much the Village can do to beg them to help us read them. And @Melon Dingo has cleverly added some thoughts via RP, which is a playstyle I approve of, though I've been too bogged down by guilt these days to stick to it. I feel like I'm channelling my inner Falcon when I say this: it's this easy to upgrade your read, people Just post!

@Ivory Dragonfly @Sapphire Elephant @Plum Rhinoceros @Melon Dingo @Azure Mouse Two of you are on death row, and probably blatantly filter-dodging. At this point, I'm not terribly invested in keeping you alive. Who do you think should be Coinshot tonight, and why?

reads like cham was trying to pm spider which i suppose is on me for not realising since he'd said he'd sent a pm to each player in the game probably their network then

Hesitate to say this but feel that Cham's defense of Flamingo would be NAI. All my information has been passed to the Village Thug scan. § things fall apart the centre cannot hold and he sits on Dyring’s porch and rests his head against his knees and tries to sleep tries to close his eyes against the dusk that is like the drawing down of the funeral pall if only they had not taken so long, if only someone had stopped his father, if only someone had stopped Var and in that moment, Kellehrt grieves intensely with every part of his being, because it was not enough, because it had been too late, because they had found Var and two of his brethren but more lurked out there among them in Tyrian Falls, and it was strange to think of the cobbled streets and worn pavingstones and neighbours who he’d skipped stones with as a boy and the baker and the blacksmith and the carpenter and to imagine the foul taint of evil slicking those smiles if only his father’s evil, his father’s corruption had been so easy to find and Kellehrt finds himself studying every feature of his father’s face in his dreams, wondering, when did you turn, when did you fall, as though there’s an answer to be found the way the answer pops out when you reckon numbers on the account books, he’d kept a ledger back in the shop in Luthadel, back when he still ran his own forge now the ledger is different; he measures the rich gold of ripening grain in the bloody light of the morning sun and tallies numbers so he can set them against the dead, so he can say we found three of them, we lost eight of ours as though this perverse mathematics is somehow justified, proof that God still continues to will that they be stopped, continues to work through him you did something, Warmmha tells him, but Warmmha doesn’t tell him it’s not his fault, because it is, because it took a whole village to damn Tyrian Falls and the wounds his father carved that day with the blade of his axe clove through the bodies of villagers and through the beating heart of Tyrian Falls itself now riven through with doubt and suspicion and even then he rests his weary head at the inn because Dyring suggested he get some rest, because Dyring put a hand on his shoulder and stopped him when Kellehrt was about to leave it’s getting dark, Dyring says, as though it isn’t getting dark all the time, as though each body they find with a spike driven through it isn’t a blot against the light, the weight of two boxings against their eyelids, you better be careful, things happen out there in the dark, maybe you should rest a while maybe he will the instinct is to crave the light, the instinct is to preserve but Kellehrt looks out into the dark or maybe the dark reaches into him with the intimation of spikes driven into its eyes and it sees him and it knows him no, says Warmmha, firmly you are mine always he grinds the heels of his hands against his eyes, feels the weariness and the strain on his shoulders, more weight than a mere farmer from Tyrian Falls should ever expect to feel thrust upon him, the dead laid against his soul like Wark’s neat charcoaled marks on the ledger, each mark indicating what was owed, what still remains to be paid iron prices blood prices guilt and shame and inheritance father, why did you (the father is merciful) Kellehrt looks out into the dark and the dark looks back into him and he breathes in the pain and the guilt and the shame and the strain and he bows his head and slips out to meet the end of his road in the dusk if this be Your will

Current State of Lion's Reads: I'm tired and am just going to throw this out here as I may not be able to do further analysis at this point. It's a busy week for me though I try to carve time out to uphold my responsibilities to Tyrian Falls. Three down, likely three to four more to go but we can't get complacent. Losing another regular might be starting to hurt them in terms of night actions economy, which is a good thing. First, for your regular anonymised action claims: no one was Lurched last Night. RADIANT [=STRONG VILLAGE] SQUIRE [=MODERATE VILLAGE] SHARDBEARER [=LIGHT VILLAGE] BRIDGEMAN [=NULL+] CHULL [=NULL] CHOUTA [=NULL-] Interested in everyone's thoughts of where we might look for the remaining three to four Elims, team composition, and so on. Edited to add: Forgot about Zebra, Zebra remains at Null+ for aforementioned reasons.

I'm slightly disappointed no one bit on the nice, sweet, tempting CW I'd parked for them, I have to say. But I'm glad we got another one Requiescat in pace, Falcon. Your sacrifice will not be in vain. It's interesting there was little defense and it makes me think that their team us running out of active thread control players. I don't quite know if this entails looking at the lurkers — I think semi actives are a good take too. Apart from Cham's late post, I was the closest person he had to a defender and even I wanted him dead >>

Real question is if I should make it 9-1 before going to sleep but it feels like it's a landslide either way and I'm satisfied with the candidates. I also am starting to believe that there is: A. very low vote manip, and B. most vote manip is Village. Latter is a hunch, the former is evidenced in the voting and what we know of distro, with the 25% unseen caveat. Edited to add: To be clear, it feels like if Smoked Rioter worries were true, a 4 vote voteswing might've been enough on D3 since prior to the Rioting madness, we had I think an 8-4 wagon gap at one point.

I would agree that's really my D1 problem in a nutshell. I'm committed to at least one of Flamingo/Ostrich being Evil, or at least one of Albatross/Cham based off D1. I suppose if pressured, I would lynch Flamingo before Ostrich, since my Ostrich credences are robust, but I really require an <Albatross/Cham> pool lynch because if not, I just can't make sense of the Elim activity. If not Flamingo or Ostrich, then I'm sort of stuck with Albatross as the only guy in the position to have 'saved' Gorilla D1, if only by bringing a third train into the bargain. I suppose I would be willing to lynch Flamingo (but I'm allergic to last minute switches, FYI) so my end result is <Flamingo, Albatross, Cham> for people who might be involved in our Croc-Iguana-Gorilla three-way end D1. Otherwise, the Elims seem unacceptably nonchalant about having a member caught up in a lynch, though I take your point about the Elim team's risk appetite being a function of its constituents - and likely Scorp's Gorilla vote was not anticipated at all, barring more complex paranoid scenarios which I'm not so gung-ho on - too close to the wire.

You think Gorilla wasn't distancing?

How so? Hyena setting up a fall guy?

Oh, huh. His count actually misses my Gorilla vote earlier, meaning it was a real CW. Hadn't even been voting for Falcon before since I self-voted as that's the only correct response if there really was a 'Seeker scan' since I fabricated the whole thing. Interesting he chooses to slot onto the Falcon CW instead of the Beagle CW. Well, then. Y'all are killing him fine without me, so carry on what did i say about rolelynching >:( what what

Gonna highlight that this in my view is untrue and is partly why I said I don't really care as long as one of <Alb, Cham> is lynched. Cham had one of the odder responses to my gambit - I'm just going to link the summary thread here for reference: Cham's response IMO maps partly onto Gorilla's because Gorilla asked me about my opinion of the Tineye message, whereas Cham asked me if I had really managed to end up Evil after all this time. I think the phrasing stood out to me at that time and I've flagged it in the analysis because it felt as though it was coming from someone who had prima facie reason to think I was not actually Evil! When the whole thread was more or less on the 'ok, kel is Evil, lynch him and let's ISO to figure out his connections' mode. In contrast, incredulous reactions I find more plausible were like Ostrich's, who kept on insisting I had a gambit in mind - and that was to smuggle Swan into the Village's good books. It's a very Village puzzle-solving mindset, in my view. Instead of doubting that I'm actually Evil, he's doubting the scenario, yes, but extrapolating it to make Swan Evil as well! I noted that I found Cham's reactions: And during D3 itself, Cham (alongside Beagle, whom I'm re-evaluating at this juncture) was one of the players to slow-walk the incident: Also want to flag that D3, he was an early mover onto the Falcon train and defended Gorilla lightly - this matters because we know Gorilla later flipped E, and Falcon V: Falcon likely a prospective CW. Here's the votecount: Gorilla and Beagle are under threat, I can promise you the Spiked dgaf about me apart from the knowledge it was a poisoned train - so Falcon looks like the designated CW since Penguin and Falcon are both in my eyes very much Village (GM confirmed, in Falcon's case.) The lukewarm Gorilla defense and noncommitalness reads like distancing even as his actions essentially protect Gorilla by voting for Falcon. Continues to slow-walk Gorilla as train gains momentum: - Notable as I'd entered full Gorilla Delenda Est mode a couple of posts ago: I'm still staying on Alb because idgaf as long as one of these two candidates are lynched (having highlighted my issues with Alb earlier), but in general, I would argue it's not quite true to say Cham has been on the sidelines for D3. D4, yeah, but D4 was the Great Hyena Pile which we don't talk about >>

Heads-up I will likely be gone until half an hour before rollover. I'm okay with either Alb or Cham, mild Alb preference but as long as either of my trains are in the lead, don't especially care. I have homework to clear and OT databases to do so just @ me if I'm needed to secure either of my candidates against manip and so on. Goodnight to you all, reachable as always in PMs.

there's a reason my vote isn't on u anymore =p multiple reasons i suppose i approve of that attitude, fwiw. family first. fair enough i think some players do push the envelope on this, e.g. 'would player X bus the strongest power role on their team?' is usually a default no, but then stuff happens and all that. but i think we can safely table that as academic for now since im not exactly voting 4 u & it looks like an alb-cham thunderdome rn

Apologies for the double-post but i want something more concrete for when the americans wake up and join us. I'm not thrilled with the level of discussion at the moment but I also get it's a weekend for them (still)? so. - And ninjaed by El, but whatever Essentially my take today is i'm more or less down for a few options: Albatross My issue with Albatross is the vote dilution D1 - I'm sold enough on Flamingo and Ostrich being Village (more Ostrich, if I'm to be honest) that in terms of vote movements that save Elims, I'm compelled to look then at Albatross drawing the Iguana train into contention, turning a V/E lynch into V/V/E. The tie turns it from 50-50 odds of killing an Elim to 1/3 odds, which shouldn't be underestimated. Train dilution tactics are popular these days. I feel that Albatross's D3 Gorilla vote sort of appears around the point it was clearly a bus, so I'm not sure I'd take it to be exculpatory either. D2 is interesting because: Note that my count missed a Penguin vote, which I've added here. It also added a Cham vote which didn't exist. Which means this is the juncture Albatross is the lead train, and we have a bunch of subtrains coming up. What interests me is Gorilla tipping the Albatross train. Meant to protect Flamingo? I don't know. Seems odd for Gorilla to go onto Albatross slightly six hours to rollover, but maybe Elim team risk tolerance is a thing. It's especially notable to me because Gorilla's votes have been historically sticky with regard to Albatross - Gorilla goes onto Albatross...for voting me as Evil...on D3, which is a bit of a hot take since I'd claimed Evil at that point. Some time after, Charcoal Hyena makes an Iguana push, which could be being protective of Gorilla (though now I'm starting to wonder if this is to ease the threat that Gorilla created on Albatross.) Flamingo is very close in the running, though, so it could just be punting those trains away too. That gives us: Since Hyena flipped E and Iguana V, that's an interesting move. Is Hyena trying to resolve a self-caused (teammate-caused) problem? Or is Hyena trying to kick the trains further away from Cham? And then as of Beagle's post: [slightly under 3 hours to rollover] Granted, Penguin withdrew, so pressure on Albatross decreased. But it feels to me like the Iguana push was meant to detract from the Albatross/Flamingo train, to be honest. But that's a partly self-caused issue because of Gorilla. Flamingo comes onto Iguana after that. Could have a self-pres element, but I think it could also have an Albatross dimension. Not sure. Flamingo push originated from Heron but was supported by Ostrich, who I read V and who made a good point, and then Swan. From Falcon at slightly under 2.5 hours to rollover: I feel like either interpretation is fine. I don't like that Cham clumps onto Iguana, but Flamingo's voting patterns don't look good to me either - I'm really going V!Flamingo on the basis of her D3 here. The Iguana train (first going live from Hyena's post) reads to me as an attempt to take pressure off either of them, but at that point, it's really Albatross under threat, even if it's self-caused. FWIW, Gorilla later goes off onto Scorp, which might be retaliatory, or to further ease pressure off Alb. At twenty three minutes to rollover, this is the vote-count: Cham misses that Gorilla has withdrawn from Albatross, btw, which is interesting. A Soothe from Iguana will turn the train into a 3 way tie in which Ocho, Flamingo, or Iguana dies, which is the point at which Azure Mouse scurries in to break the tie by voting for Iguana. (We don't know why.) If E Flamingo, then interesting to look at Azure Mouse, because if these were V/V/V wagons, then there's simply no interest in looking at Flamingo. @Fuchsia Ostrich - FWIW, I still think you don't kill the CW unless you were expecting to use Ocho's death to direct attention and thus the lynch to Flamingo. I also don't like how Alb has faded into the background ever since I personally read him moderately Village, so although this puts me voting with a player I'm not sure about, Magenta Albatross, let's see some ID. Axl Again, I think D1 looks better on Axl but I'm not really sure why "if I'm the player you thought I am, we wouldn't have lost two Spiked in four cycles" is a compelling defence, because we all know who I think - and who Hyena thinks - Vulture is and I just want to lightly remind everyone Vulture led and did all the analysis and heavy-lifting in this AG, I just fed him with information, and losing Vulture in AG3 turned the game badly against the Village as he'd IDed some hidden Spiked (and if you are who you think I think you are, Axl, you will remember these), he used a linguistic slip ("Spiked" instead of "elim") to ID the entire elim team in LG50, and won the game in a single cycle before. Simply put, if we're back to player ID defenses, I put it to you that as much as I greatly respect you, Axl, and imagine you would get the best of me when crossing blades, I would always bet on Vulture in a clash between the two of you so long as Vulture is in decent shape and capable of committing to the game. (I'd be happy to be made to eat my words Goodness knows I'd like to see you give Vulture a trashing, but that detracts from the point.) I dislike your D2 and D3 because I feel you continuously erode at the reasons to push Gorilla, and on D3, parked on Cham and tried to splinter votes off the Gorilla train and said you hadn't ISO-ed Falcon. That doesn't look good in light of the Falcon V flip and Gorilla E flip: you're weakly defending an Elim, and more or less just being non-committal about a Villager. I agree this might be a very uncharitable take of your D2 and I'm genuinely at a loss as to what to make of the fact that your votes and suspicion doesn't seem to have substantially shifted off Cham since...C2 where you asked us not to lose sight of Cham and assume Cham was auto-cleared by no reaction. I feel like Elim you would have ensured more vote diversity, but I'm also well aware you're a player flexible enough to shift your meta so I especially don't want to meta clear or meta condemn you here. Given that Hyena at least seemed to put effort into defending Gorilla, I feel it's not strange to look at players pushing similar lines when considering grounds for suspicion, though of course I'm certain some of them will be bussing or distancing. I'm not really clear why considering that you may have lied about D1 is meant to be exculpatory, to be honest. I think if I'm trying to reconcile your D1 with your D2 and D3, I'm compelled to consider all sorts of possibilities in which you've lied. I agree I'm torn in two ways when it comes to figuring out what to make of you, but I think that's generally true. It is true that the only way (I think) that you are Evil and voting on Gorilla requires you to have insane risk appetite and/or vote manip (whether yours or a teammates.) Yet the interactions don't really work out - quite. IDK. I'm throwing this out here for people to chew on for that reason. My current D1 reads commit me to an inexplicable amount of Elim apathy with regard to the D1 train anyway, so I'm going to need to take a relook. I'm very conflicted on you, and not enough to kill you right now. Violent Axolotl. Cham Long story short, my issue with Cham boils down to Gorilla waffling, and D3 commitment to Falcon over Hyena, and a pattern of really bad votes D1-D3. Because I'm tired and I think this post has gone long enough I want some fresh eyes on it. I'd like scrutiny on resident filter-dodgers Elephant, Rhino, Dingo, and Mouse (less Mouse), possibly Dragonfly too. Happy to see an airstrike because at this point, I'm heavily suspicious of at least one lurker Elim. Edited to add: I'm okay with revising my Beagle read downwards as well. As much as I troll Heron over their uninspiring voting patterns, Beagle's doesn't look good either. In my view, while I have a preference for Alb to be lynched, I'm indifferent if Cham goes instead. I V read Flamingo but acknowledge her D1-D2 looks meh enough I probably wouldn't feel askance about checking since I'm otherwise committed to a clean Crocodile train, which is really weird.

D1 D3 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add a meme: Disclaimer - I'm not sure I'm committed to Heron being Spiked but their takes have been rather weird all game in my eyes and I can never let a delicious prequel meme slip by.

exactly 1/10 araris impersonation u have a porch but everyone knows kas likes porches too ur not foolin anyone, Kas bro :|

I will agree that my thoughts when I realised I was committed to that being an Elim team sort of went in the direction of "the gods really hate Tyrian huh" bro I was trying so hard not to slip ur name & u just went and @Fifth Scholar i wld like u 2 witness this one was not my fault i don't fifth players all the time And Axl - I would agree. In my view, D1 looks good on you. It's D2 and D3 I'm having difficulties making sense of, and if I take D2 and D3 to point towards you being Evil, then I'm required to consider the possibility you are lying about D1, or at least about the Riot target on D1. One of the ways to make sense of it does involve the claim that you lied about your role and the vote manip came from elsewhere, e.g. someone Soothing you, which is sort of what I said in the less coherent part as my brain broke trying to contemplate the possibilities. Edited to add: @Violet Axolotl - Kas, bro, i know u were givin me tips on how 2 impersonate u & u said less is more & im tellin u this about Araris now, slippin like this doesnt really make ur Araris impersonation sound any better u were doin better when u were porch chillin & just sort of radiating bloodthirsty vibes, u know?