Salmon Meerkat

@Ivory Dragonfly @Sapphire Elephant @Plum Rhinoceros @Melon Dingo @Azure Mouse Two of you are on death row, and probably blatantly filter-dodging. At this point, I'm not terribly invested in keeping you alive. Who do you think should be Coinshot tonight, and why?

reads like cham was trying to pm spider which i suppose is on me for not realising since he'd said he'd sent a pm to each player in the game probably their network then

Hesitate to say this but feel that Cham's defense of Flamingo would be NAI. All my information has been passed to the Village Thug scan. § things fall apart the centre cannot hold and he sits on Dyring’s porch and rests his head against his knees and tries to sleep tries to close his eyes against the dusk that is like the drawing down of the funeral pall if only they had not taken so long, if only someone had stopped his father, if only someone had stopped Var and in that moment, Kellehrt grieves intensely with every part of his being, because it was not enough, because it had been too late, because they had found Var and two of his brethren but more lurked out there among them in Tyrian Falls, and it was strange to think of the cobbled streets and worn pavingstones and neighbours who he’d skipped stones with as a boy and the baker and the blacksmith and the carpenter and to imagine the foul taint of evil slicking those smiles if only his father’s evil, his father’s corruption had been so easy to find and Kellehrt finds himself studying every feature of his father’s face in his dreams, wondering, when did you turn, when did you fall, as though there’s an answer to be found the way the answer pops out when you reckon numbers on the account books, he’d kept a ledger back in the shop in Luthadel, back when he still ran his own forge now the ledger is different; he measures the rich gold of ripening grain in the bloody light of the morning sun and tallies numbers so he can set them against the dead, so he can say we found three of them, we lost eight of ours as though this perverse mathematics is somehow justified, proof that God still continues to will that they be stopped, continues to work through him you did something, Warmmha tells him, but Warmmha doesn’t tell him it’s not his fault, because it is, because it took a whole village to damn Tyrian Falls and the wounds his father carved that day with the blade of his axe clove through the bodies of villagers and through the beating heart of Tyrian Falls itself now riven through with doubt and suspicion and even then he rests his weary head at the inn because Dyring suggested he get some rest, because Dyring put a hand on his shoulder and stopped him when Kellehrt was about to leave it’s getting dark, Dyring says, as though it isn’t getting dark all the time, as though each body they find with a spike driven through it isn’t a blot against the light, the weight of two boxings against their eyelids, you better be careful, things happen out there in the dark, maybe you should rest a while maybe he will the instinct is to crave the light, the instinct is to preserve but Kellehrt looks out into the dark or maybe the dark reaches into him with the intimation of spikes driven into its eyes and it sees him and it knows him no, says Warmmha, firmly you are mine always he grinds the heels of his hands against his eyes, feels the weariness and the strain on his shoulders, more weight than a mere farmer from Tyrian Falls should ever expect to feel thrust upon him, the dead laid against his soul like Wark’s neat charcoaled marks on the ledger, each mark indicating what was owed, what still remains to be paid iron prices blood prices guilt and shame and inheritance father, why did you (the father is merciful) Kellehrt looks out into the dark and the dark looks back into him and he breathes in the pain and the guilt and the shame and the strain and he bows his head and slips out to meet the end of his road in the dusk if this be Your will

Current State of Lion's Reads: I'm tired and am just going to throw this out here as I may not be able to do further analysis at this point. It's a busy week for me though I try to carve time out to uphold my responsibilities to Tyrian Falls. Three down, likely three to four more to go but we can't get complacent. Losing another regular might be starting to hurt them in terms of night actions economy, which is a good thing. First, for your regular anonymised action claims: no one was Lurched last Night. RADIANT [=STRONG VILLAGE] SQUIRE [=MODERATE VILLAGE] SHARDBEARER [=LIGHT VILLAGE] BRIDGEMAN [=NULL+] CHULL [=NULL] CHOUTA [=NULL-] Interested in everyone's thoughts of where we might look for the remaining three to four Elims, team composition, and so on. Edited to add: Forgot about Zebra, Zebra remains at Null+ for aforementioned reasons.

I'm slightly disappointed no one bit on the nice, sweet, tempting CW I'd parked for them, I have to say. But I'm glad we got another one Requiescat in pace, Falcon. Your sacrifice will not be in vain. It's interesting there was little defense and it makes me think that their team us running out of active thread control players. I don't quite know if this entails looking at the lurkers — I think semi actives are a good take too. Apart from Cham's late post, I was the closest person he had to a defender and even I wanted him dead >>

Real question is if I should make it 9-1 before going to sleep but it feels like it's a landslide either way and I'm satisfied with the candidates. I also am starting to believe that there is: A. very low vote manip, and B. most vote manip is Village. Latter is a hunch, the former is evidenced in the voting and what we know of distro, with the 25% unseen caveat. Edited to add: To be clear, it feels like if Smoked Rioter worries were true, a 4 vote voteswing might've been enough on D3 since prior to the Rioting madness, we had I think an 8-4 wagon gap at one point.

I would agree that's really my D1 problem in a nutshell. I'm committed to at least one of Flamingo/Ostrich being Evil, or at least one of Albatross/Cham based off D1. I suppose if pressured, I would lynch Flamingo before Ostrich, since my Ostrich credences are robust, but I really require an <Albatross/Cham> pool lynch because if not, I just can't make sense of the Elim activity. If not Flamingo or Ostrich, then I'm sort of stuck with Albatross as the only guy in the position to have 'saved' Gorilla D1, if only by bringing a third train into the bargain. I suppose I would be willing to lynch Flamingo (but I'm allergic to last minute switches, FYI) so my end result is <Flamingo, Albatross, Cham> for people who might be involved in our Croc-Iguana-Gorilla three-way end D1. Otherwise, the Elims seem unacceptably nonchalant about having a member caught up in a lynch, though I take your point about the Elim team's risk appetite being a function of its constituents - and likely Scorp's Gorilla vote was not anticipated at all, barring more complex paranoid scenarios which I'm not so gung-ho on - too close to the wire.

You think Gorilla wasn't distancing?

How so? Hyena setting up a fall guy?

Oh, huh. His count actually misses my Gorilla vote earlier, meaning it was a real CW. Hadn't even been voting for Falcon before since I self-voted as that's the only correct response if there really was a 'Seeker scan' since I fabricated the whole thing. Interesting he chooses to slot onto the Falcon CW instead of the Beagle CW. Well, then. Y'all are killing him fine without me, so carry on what did i say about rolelynching >:( what what

Gonna highlight that this in my view is untrue and is partly why I said I don't really care as long as one of <Alb, Cham> is lynched. Cham had one of the odder responses to my gambit - I'm just going to link the summary thread here for reference: Cham's response IMO maps partly onto Gorilla's because Gorilla asked me about my opinion of the Tineye message, whereas Cham asked me if I had really managed to end up Evil after all this time. I think the phrasing stood out to me at that time and I've flagged it in the analysis because it felt as though it was coming from someone who had prima facie reason to think I was not actually Evil! When the whole thread was more or less on the 'ok, kel is Evil, lynch him and let's ISO to figure out his connections' mode. In contrast, incredulous reactions I find more plausible were like Ostrich's, who kept on insisting I had a gambit in mind - and that was to smuggle Swan into the Village's good books. It's a very Village puzzle-solving mindset, in my view. Instead of doubting that I'm actually Evil, he's doubting the scenario, yes, but extrapolating it to make Swan Evil as well! I noted that I found Cham's reactions: And during D3 itself, Cham (alongside Beagle, whom I'm re-evaluating at this juncture) was one of the players to slow-walk the incident: Also want to flag that D3, he was an early mover onto the Falcon train and defended Gorilla lightly - this matters because we know Gorilla later flipped E, and Falcon V: Falcon likely a prospective CW. Here's the votecount: Gorilla and Beagle are under threat, I can promise you the Spiked dgaf about me apart from the knowledge it was a poisoned train - so Falcon looks like the designated CW since Penguin and Falcon are both in my eyes very much Village (GM confirmed, in Falcon's case.) The lukewarm Gorilla defense and noncommitalness reads like distancing even as his actions essentially protect Gorilla by voting for Falcon. Continues to slow-walk Gorilla as train gains momentum: - Notable as I'd entered full Gorilla Delenda Est mode a couple of posts ago: I'm still staying on Alb because idgaf as long as one of these two candidates are lynched (having highlighted my issues with Alb earlier), but in general, I would argue it's not quite true to say Cham has been on the sidelines for D3. D4, yeah, but D4 was the Great Hyena Pile which we don't talk about >>

Heads-up I will likely be gone until half an hour before rollover. I'm okay with either Alb or Cham, mild Alb preference but as long as either of my trains are in the lead, don't especially care. I have homework to clear and OT databases to do so just @ me if I'm needed to secure either of my candidates against manip and so on. Goodnight to you all, reachable as always in PMs.

there's a reason my vote isn't on u anymore =p multiple reasons i suppose i approve of that attitude, fwiw. family first. fair enough i think some players do push the envelope on this, e.g. 'would player X bus the strongest power role on their team?' is usually a default no, but then stuff happens and all that. but i think we can safely table that as academic for now since im not exactly voting 4 u & it looks like an alb-cham thunderdome rn

Apologies for the double-post but i want something more concrete for when the americans wake up and join us. I'm not thrilled with the level of discussion at the moment but I also get it's a weekend for them (still)? so. - And ninjaed by El, but whatever Essentially my take today is i'm more or less down for a few options: Albatross My issue with Albatross is the vote dilution D1 - I'm sold enough on Flamingo and Ostrich being Village (more Ostrich, if I'm to be honest) that in terms of vote movements that save Elims, I'm compelled to look then at Albatross drawing the Iguana train into contention, turning a V/E lynch into V/V/E. The tie turns it from 50-50 odds of killing an Elim to 1/3 odds, which shouldn't be underestimated. Train dilution tactics are popular these days. I feel that Albatross's D3 Gorilla vote sort of appears around the point it was clearly a bus, so I'm not sure I'd take it to be exculpatory either. D2 is interesting because: Note that my count missed a Penguin vote, which I've added here. It also added a Cham vote which didn't exist. Which means this is the juncture Albatross is the lead train, and we have a bunch of subtrains coming up. What interests me is Gorilla tipping the Albatross train. Meant to protect Flamingo? I don't know. Seems odd for Gorilla to go onto Albatross slightly six hours to rollover, but maybe Elim team risk tolerance is a thing. It's especially notable to me because Gorilla's votes have been historically sticky with regard to Albatross - Gorilla goes onto Albatross...for voting me as Evil...on D3, which is a bit of a hot take since I'd claimed Evil at that point. Some time after, Charcoal Hyena makes an Iguana push, which could be being protective of Gorilla (though now I'm starting to wonder if this is to ease the threat that Gorilla created on Albatross.) Flamingo is very close in the running, though, so it could just be punting those trains away too. That gives us: Since Hyena flipped E and Iguana V, that's an interesting move. Is Hyena trying to resolve a self-caused (teammate-caused) problem? Or is Hyena trying to kick the trains further away from Cham? And then as of Beagle's post: [slightly under 3 hours to rollover] Granted, Penguin withdrew, so pressure on Albatross decreased. But it feels to me like the Iguana push was meant to detract from the Albatross/Flamingo train, to be honest. But that's a partly self-caused issue because of Gorilla. Flamingo comes onto Iguana after that. Could have a self-pres element, but I think it could also have an Albatross dimension. Not sure. Flamingo push originated from Heron but was supported by Ostrich, who I read V and who made a good point, and then Swan. From Falcon at slightly under 2.5 hours to rollover: I feel like either interpretation is fine. I don't like that Cham clumps onto Iguana, but Flamingo's voting patterns don't look good to me either - I'm really going V!Flamingo on the basis of her D3 here. The Iguana train (first going live from Hyena's post) reads to me as an attempt to take pressure off either of them, but at that point, it's really Albatross under threat, even if it's self-caused. FWIW, Gorilla later goes off onto Scorp, which might be retaliatory, or to further ease pressure off Alb. At twenty three minutes to rollover, this is the vote-count: Cham misses that Gorilla has withdrawn from Albatross, btw, which is interesting. A Soothe from Iguana will turn the train into a 3 way tie in which Ocho, Flamingo, or Iguana dies, which is the point at which Azure Mouse scurries in to break the tie by voting for Iguana. (We don't know why.) If E Flamingo, then interesting to look at Azure Mouse, because if these were V/V/V wagons, then there's simply no interest in looking at Flamingo. @Fuchsia Ostrich - FWIW, I still think you don't kill the CW unless you were expecting to use Ocho's death to direct attention and thus the lynch to Flamingo. I also don't like how Alb has faded into the background ever since I personally read him moderately Village, so although this puts me voting with a player I'm not sure about, Magenta Albatross, let's see some ID. Axl Again, I think D1 looks better on Axl but I'm not really sure why "if I'm the player you thought I am, we wouldn't have lost two Spiked in four cycles" is a compelling defence, because we all know who I think - and who Hyena thinks - Vulture is and I just want to lightly remind everyone Vulture led and did all the analysis and heavy-lifting in this AG, I just fed him with information, and losing Vulture in AG3 turned the game badly against the Village as he'd IDed some hidden Spiked (and if you are who you think I think you are, Axl, you will remember these), he used a linguistic slip ("Spiked" instead of "elim") to ID the entire elim team in LG50, and won the game in a single cycle before. Simply put, if we're back to player ID defenses, I put it to you that as much as I greatly respect you, Axl, and imagine you would get the best of me when crossing blades, I would always bet on Vulture in a clash between the two of you so long as Vulture is in decent shape and capable of committing to the game. (I'd be happy to be made to eat my words Goodness knows I'd like to see you give Vulture a trashing, but that detracts from the point.) I dislike your D2 and D3 because I feel you continuously erode at the reasons to push Gorilla, and on D3, parked on Cham and tried to splinter votes off the Gorilla train and said you hadn't ISO-ed Falcon. That doesn't look good in light of the Falcon V flip and Gorilla E flip: you're weakly defending an Elim, and more or less just being non-committal about a Villager. I agree this might be a very uncharitable take of your D2 and I'm genuinely at a loss as to what to make of the fact that your votes and suspicion doesn't seem to have substantially shifted off Cham since...C2 where you asked us not to lose sight of Cham and assume Cham was auto-cleared by no reaction. I feel like Elim you would have ensured more vote diversity, but I'm also well aware you're a player flexible enough to shift your meta so I especially don't want to meta clear or meta condemn you here. Given that Hyena at least seemed to put effort into defending Gorilla, I feel it's not strange to look at players pushing similar lines when considering grounds for suspicion, though of course I'm certain some of them will be bussing or distancing. I'm not really clear why considering that you may have lied about D1 is meant to be exculpatory, to be honest. I think if I'm trying to reconcile your D1 with your D2 and D3, I'm compelled to consider all sorts of possibilities in which you've lied. I agree I'm torn in two ways when it comes to figuring out what to make of you, but I think that's generally true. It is true that the only way (I think) that you are Evil and voting on Gorilla requires you to have insane risk appetite and/or vote manip (whether yours or a teammates.) Yet the interactions don't really work out - quite. IDK. I'm throwing this out here for people to chew on for that reason. My current D1 reads commit me to an inexplicable amount of Elim apathy with regard to the D1 train anyway, so I'm going to need to take a relook. I'm very conflicted on you, and not enough to kill you right now. Violent Axolotl. Cham Long story short, my issue with Cham boils down to Gorilla waffling, and D3 commitment to Falcon over Hyena, and a pattern of really bad votes D1-D3. Because I'm tired and I think this post has gone long enough I want some fresh eyes on it. I'd like scrutiny on resident filter-dodgers Elephant, Rhino, Dingo, and Mouse (less Mouse), possibly Dragonfly too. Happy to see an airstrike because at this point, I'm heavily suspicious of at least one lurker Elim. Edited to add: I'm okay with revising my Beagle read downwards as well. As much as I troll Heron over their uninspiring voting patterns, Beagle's doesn't look good either. In my view, while I have a preference for Alb to be lynched, I'm indifferent if Cham goes instead. I V read Flamingo but acknowledge her D1-D2 looks meh enough I probably wouldn't feel askance about checking since I'm otherwise committed to a clean Crocodile train, which is really weird.

D1 D3 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add a meme: Disclaimer - I'm not sure I'm committed to Heron being Spiked but their takes have been rather weird all game in my eyes and I can never let a delicious prequel meme slip by.

exactly 1/10 araris impersonation u have a porch but everyone knows kas likes porches too ur not foolin anyone, Kas bro :|

I will agree that my thoughts when I realised I was committed to that being an Elim team sort of went in the direction of "the gods really hate Tyrian huh" bro I was trying so hard not to slip ur name & u just went and @Fifth Scholar i wld like u 2 witness this one was not my fault i don't fifth players all the time And Axl - I would agree. In my view, D1 looks good on you. It's D2 and D3 I'm having difficulties making sense of, and if I take D2 and D3 to point towards you being Evil, then I'm required to consider the possibility you are lying about D1, or at least about the Riot target on D1. One of the ways to make sense of it does involve the claim that you lied about your role and the vote manip came from elsewhere, e.g. someone Soothing you, which is sort of what I said in the less coherent part as my brain broke trying to contemplate the possibilities. Edited to add: @Violet Axolotl - Kas, bro, i know u were givin me tips on how 2 impersonate u & u said less is more & im tellin u this about Araris now, slippin like this doesnt really make ur Araris impersonation sound any better u were doin better when u were porch chillin & just sort of radiating bloodthirsty vibes, u know?

Sigh. I was supposed to be kel this round :/ i was supposed to sit back and chill and troll and occasionally add sarkastic commentary & lie outrageously about my SE play history and keep on calling Fifth out i was supposed to be the god of trolling this game. i had it all worked out. nice chill personality, like wilson's mad watcher schtick but chaos god kel to let my troll streak out. it's done wonders for me when gaming. wyrm commented on how chill i was when we went ham against the ai. But y'all don't need kel right now, do you. You need the person kel is impersonating. So I guess I'm going to have to find him :/ even if i kind of really don't want to. Simplified Re-Look At Voting Redone Vote Movement Analysis -tbc another day because im tired & i need to clear work and stuff & recover & sleep -tired kel is tired I'm probably drunk and tripping because: Albatross Violet Axl i like ur style old friend & i like ur porch but u r doin' me a concern here edit: @Fifth Scholar @Elbereth retraction highlighted to save your eyes edited to add 2: *Maybe Axl Soothed But I think I'll go with Axl for now. - This should read as speculation that Axl is a Soother, but Soothers can't target themselves, so this requires Axl to be in cahoots with a Soother who also targeted Axl's vote, or targeted someone Smoked, in which case that just seems...overly elaborate in a number of cases. Yet the challenge is that if Hyena is correct and he drew Pewter N3, then Hyena's claims to have drawn Brass N3 could be a gamble - he'd have to remain alive for us to see him use it - but could also plausibly point to a Soother/Rioter teammate. With over 25% of the distro still unknown to us, I don't want us to rolelynch at this point.

think ur confusin 2 (or more) separate convos bro tho i admit i haven't made it easier 4 u =P penguin thinks there's e!Seeker - i disagree; no sign of Smokers & usually v has protection for power roles from e!Seekers a few people have pmed me asking about a leak and/or e!Coinshot & imo there's prima facie case 2 consider b/c 3 V!Thugs + 2V!Lurchers + 1 V!Coinshot can seem a bit much too much protective role padding if u know what i mean - gms have to build balance into the distro so the more we know about the distro the better + we have Word of El-Fifth that 2 V!Thugs are conf V!Thugs and 1 V!Lurcher is conf V!Lurcher so there's a prima facie discomfort there if we assume V!Coinshot it can be worked out imo (don't forget Lurchers are nerfed in this game - standard Tyrian Lurchers have no restrictions on protecting the same target multiple nights in a row so two Tyrian Lurchers would unbalance things immensely - i could see two AG8!Lurchers due to the nerf on V side with a potential third E!Lurcher who simply kept quiet like Kas did in LG5 b/c no incentive to reveal now) but i agree w/ your reasoning no E!Seeker needed to explain Swan kill & use that to talk about how imo, Coinshot has to be V b/c if we take it as true that Hyena wanted to go up against Vulture & only sent in the kill on the suspicion Vulture was V!Mistborn then Elims didn't know Vulture was regular & Swan Mistborn but on N3, I created a PM group to broker contact between Vulture, Swan, Coinshot, and myself so Elim team would not have made this mistake i.e. Coinshot v. unlikely to be E. so im agreeing w/ u abt E!Seeker but I think ur reasoning also separately allows us to infer that Coinshot is pretty solidly V so roleclearing CS is not too uncomfortable a move does this help >edit: to be clear, coinshot, swan, and vulture agreed to out themselves 2 each other so Spiked wld've known if coinshot (or fwiw, myself) were compromised

No actually. I'm thinking aloud about the Coinshot because we've been treating the Coinshot as a roleclear and with more info about the protective roles available in this game that are purportedly Village, I thought it was a good time to reassess because roleclearing is always inherently risky. See: Fifth the Seeker. Edited to add: @Fuchsia Ostrich Bro, should add you're expecting me to be a bit more organised than I am When I make arguments, I am. But I also have a habit of treating the thread and PMs as my personal thought scratch table. Meaning I will throw out anything that comes to my mind in the hopes of getting insights from the thread. These are all just thoughts that occur to me - IMO, Falcon's flip should be a clear sign to re-assess our view of the gamestate and to refresh our reads. I get the strong reaction to Swan's death and the impulse to consider if there are any leaks - Cham PMed me along those lines. I've said what I can about how we handled Swan's role, and the only thing I kept slipping was honestly Swan's identity which the PM people both found hilarious and Fifth threatened to use against me as ammunition I've nearly slipped Swan's name here a couple times too. My current view - after having explored further leak avenues - is that I don't think so. I think the groups as they stand are solid and I don't see a leak, so any call to revise trusts should not substantively affect my most robust reads. And as you point out and as I've flagged to Penguin, Swan's death is not in any way extraordinary, so I don't think there is a pro tanto call for radical revision either. But having done that anyway and not seeing leak avenues, I expect to focus and reconcile my revised reads from Falcon's flip with the structure of my reads from last night. After I've submitted my homework... As one last point: I deliberately lied and tried to pass Penguin off to the thread and to you guys as Mistborn. I felt that it was important to clear the air. If this had helped Swan live, we would not be having this discussion. But since Swan is dead, it's important everyone is on the same page, and to that extent, the fact I told different players different things needs to be laid out in case people accidentally draw the wrong conclusion from my lying spree. I know this lying spree is, again, not something in line with my usual player meta but having already pulled off a kasyana gambit this game, I feel like this is a lesser charge

If so, in my view, E!Coinshot likelihood drops very low. Only four people knew the Mistborn's identity N3—myself, Vulture, the Coinshot, and Swan. Swan claimed to me D3 because I discussed my worries about the Gorilla lynch and Falcon scan with him and as a V Mistborn, a second Mistborn claim alarmed him. This info sharing was after requesting their consent to broker contact between them. Vulture and Swan flipped V. If Elims really did not know Swan was Mistborn, then neither the Coinshot nor myself could have been leaks. I have been very careful to pass Swan off as a high level trust and I think it might be possible to work out that he's Rioter #2 from some of Vulture's arguments but in general, my strategy to conceal Swan was built off the fact that he was am obvious trust so no need to discuss or reference his role or treat him any different from a strong Village read.

Again, I'm not saying this is impossible - I'm saying you're making that inference from a kill that isn't warranted. A kill on a mid-activity player who isn't standing out who happens to be Mistborn is something that cries out for explanation. A kill on a high-activity consensus Village read player also designated as a Village info node...isn't, because it's self-explanatory. It doesn't mean there can't really be a second Mistborn or an E!Seeker, I'm just saying it's not the natural inference to make. Swan being Swan obscures this for us. My main issue with repeated E!Seeker theories is: where are the Smokers? As I've told the thread and Elims must also be aware, I don't tell players what to do, and only offer tactical advice if requested - it would have been acceptable in my eyes if Village Lurcher #1 had Lurched you or Swan, and my views on rolelynching are very clear. I don't see this as extremely damning because it assumes that one Lurcher must be E and we don't have enough sight of the game distro landscape to know for sure. I also think that given I had emphasised in thread that Swan and you were strong V reads on my part, the Lurcher in this scenario has a simple response: "I Lurched Penguin because you told me she's a power role, and I'd hoped the bluff would be enough to deter the Elims but I guess not. Maybe they saw through it because you were planning too heavily for your death." I'm going to drop all known roles in thread now, anonymised. I want everyone to take a look at this and to think about these questions: where are the Smokers? Where are the protect roles distributed? Where are the Mistborn? Is there a chance of an E!Coinshot (which would entail high numbers of V protective roles?) Total List of Known Roles [N.B. 26 players in total] In other words, out of this game, we currently know 19 roles, or 73% of the distro. Some of these claims are stronger than others, e.g. the Village Thug flip from Toucan, versus players who make regular claim. But my point is that's still more than one quarter (25%) of the game we don't have sight of. I would be very, very hesitant about rolelynching at this juncture. My thoughts from this so far: I can't tell if this is an E Coinshot distro or not. Prior to N2, it seems like the whole Village (including Vulture) and myself excluded - were happy to assume V Coinshot. Ostrich convinced me D3 because of the curious Ocho doubletap. But it seems to me to be prima facie implausible that we have V Coinshot and a lot of V protective roles. But the issue is we really just need sight into the last 25% of the game - I feel like a second Spiked Mistborn is possible (Mistborn #3), or alternatively, that we really do have so many protective roles because of the Spiked Coinshot (?) But I still feel Spiked Coinshots are a nighmare to balance so I'm leaning V for the moment. Which means I'm committed to side-eying the number of protective roles we have - sort of. For the Thugs in particular, two of them have been confirmed Village by Word of El-and-Fifth. One Lurcher has also been confirmed Village by Word of El-and-Fifth. But this could easily be disrupted by a third Elim Lurcher who simply never claimed - I'm trying to consider how likely I find it that this is a Three V!Thug Two V!L one E!L game and I think that this still more or less commits us to the claim that on the face of it, that's a...lot of Village protective roles. On the possibility of an Elim Seeker. I don't rule it out but one thing this game has that I find striking is a decent number of regulars, and 3 vote manips. That's it. Vote manip has been low and I don't think anyone at all has hit a Smoker yet. So where are the Smokers? If there is an E!Seeker, I would expect one or two V!Smokers, just as protection from the E!Seeker. Similarly for the vote manip case. The lack of a sign of a Smoker (granted, a Regular could be fakeclaiming) actually makes me wonder if vote manip skews Village and maybe 2 Elim Smokers. But again, with the caveat we do not have sight of one quarter of this game. I have other reason to think that E!Coinshot doesn't obtain - namely, that if Vulture was really killed because he was thought to be Mistborn, then this isn't consistent with E!Coinshot, as the Coinshot and the Mistborn knew each other (and consented to.) N3 kill would have hit the Mistborn, and in my view, would have been a perfectly reasonable kill, because Swan was a very clear Village read for many, which obscures the reasons behind the kill. We only started to ask questions because Vulture was hit instead. Finally, I have a bit of a story to tell. As you all know, this is an anon game but El said something about players who scream their identity to the world with every post. So okay, I'm gonna do that - as I've been telling you all, I'm kel, and sometimes I do Kas impressions So, one bit of background here (and if Araris is in this game, he sighs because we have been in enough games that he has heard me tell this at least twenty times, and Fifth has heard this more than enough when I was PMing everyone in MR41 reminding them about the Spanreed Incident.) Long story short, I was a young naive lad playing my first SE game in LG5. I rand Elim. Oh, cripes. Things get better: I start as a Thug and a PM role combined. (To be clear, LG5 was items based.) The Village decided that the Elims must have a PM role (not wrong), because all PMs are closed unless a person with a PM role opens it, and there's only so many they can open a day (I think?) Anyway - PM role = spanreed. They weren't wrong. We had a spanreed holder. I was the spanreed holder =) "Should I use it?" I asked my team. Remember, I was young and naive and I didn't know the faintest thing about playing SE. So I crutched very hard on Awes and Alv. "I think you should hang on to it," they said. So here's what happened. I never admitted to having the spanreed, Awes' stoked everyone's paranoia, and the Village lynched every single player with a spanreed, all of whom were Villagers because, recall - I never admitted to having the spanreed, and I was the Elim PM role. There was a bloodbath. I threw the spanreed onto Joe as we killed him just to get rid of the incriminating evidence =) It was a good play =) And this is why I never like rolelynches. Can they be grounds for suspicion? Sort of. But that Village was rolelynching I think from D2 onwards, and in my view, you just don't have enough sight of the distro landscape. Even now at 73%, I feel there's too much room for error. Some of the Regular claimants could be lying. Similarly, the E!Lurcher could just be staying quiet. Which I suppose is a long way of me saying I will not be giving up Lurcher #1's identity or turning on the Coinshot on the basis of distro speculation at this juncture. Edited to add: And this puts me in the awkward position of voting for Albatross on the basis of his votes, though I may swap to Cham after further consideration, but I really just want to open up discussion more and add more lynch pressure. We're at D5, thread shouldn't be this dead.

I told Ostrich last Night that Penguin was Mistborn. If the theory is that Swan was killed because of a role kill which imo ignores the simplest explanation, then we should have seen an airstrike on Penguin as I have never indicated distrust of Ostrich. I also told Lurcher #1 that Penguin was a power role that skews Village when explaining why I wanted to pass Penguin off as the Lurch target N3. I was trying to generate some cover for Swan. The Elims may have felt this was too easy but take it as you will. With Flamingo being pushed so aggressively as the CW D3, and staying on Gorilla, I find it strange to argue for E Flamingo since Falcon/Gorilla V/E. Flamingo could have pushed Falcon instead. Too early for a bus. Edited to add: To my pre-reread brain, Ostrich was the first person to keep pushing the ISO inequality on D2 and to keep pushing Hyena to me D3. Hyena also tried to make him and Vulture the CW so I feel like that's another tendentious take.

tfw one of my suspicions votes the other....

<OOG>El told me to OOG this and I suppose I will. It's a coward's option but I just don't feel mentally ready to talk to Falcon so I'm not going to just yet and whenever I do it will be via mod mediation. But the strangest thing is what this write up just makes me feel is an overwhelming sense of relief. Because the alternative is that a friend of mine was down for a teammate dragging me through a very bad period of my life and opening scars. And I was pretty mad about that. I shouldn't feel relieved because this isn't a great Village result at all. But I am. Take that as you will. </OOG> -Swan was a top trust so if not me, they would likely hit him or Penguin. They may have distrusted going for Penguin. Nothing much I can do about that. -Agreement was to double tap Falcon. He wanted to shoot Cham but felt it was too risky. -Considering revealing Lurcher #1 but IMO, I am concerned about playing Lynch the Lurcher — second V Lurcher is not implausible, or an E Lurcher who simply hasn't been saying anything. Going to sleep on that one. -For everyone who kept asking about the D3 Riot, that was Swan. He Rioted Rhino from Falcon to Gorilla. I tried to pass him off as a Rioter but I guess that failed. So it wasn't that I had a lot of trust in the Rioter—it's that the Rioter was Swan who I had a lot of reason to trust. -IMO we want to decide the spread of known roles. 2 Lurchers and Three Thugs seem way too much for Village which means in my view either more Mistborn than we had expected or an Evil Coinshot. Paranoia says Evil Coinshot but the Ocho doubletap doesn't make sense to me. We know one of the Tin messages D1 was from Swan so this means two unaccounted for messages. I suppose it's possible still that Hyena sent one and there's an Evil Seeker, but why do we not see Smokers then? So on the assumption Ocho sent something — ah holy Wormmon of course, maybe Ocho sent the last message. But anyway, four messages, if one is from Ocho and one was from me and one from Swan, then we either have one Mistborn or two remaining. I'm too tired to work out the likelihood of five V protect roles right now. Going to think later. -I'm surprised I'm alive because I lied. Lurcher #1 Lurched me N3 so the Elims would have known if Lurcher #1 was Evil that I was vulnerable last Night. Hence the contingencies. But as a Tineye, guess I'm not a top kill target either. -I'm going to use the flips to rework my suspicions. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Swan.