Emerald Falcon

Mint Heron, what have you done this game that you think would show you are town? I'd ask Ivory Dragonfly as well but I don't think they are around right now.

That's the point of making a cw. To see what happens with votes getting moved so that it is analyzable after the flip. Makes it obvious if elims try to save one, and the other wagon flips green. Also, this is consolidation lol. Fwiw I am fine with both wagons between Ivory Dragonfly and Mint Heron. Mint Heron (5): Indigo Weasel, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Mauve Crocodile Ivory Dragonfly (3): Mint Heron, Emerald Falcon, Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (1): Azure Mouse

Ivory Dragonfly (5): Mint Heron, Emerald Falcon, Azure Mouse, Amber Vulture, Mauve Crocodile Mint Heron (4): Indigo Weasel, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan

Competing wagons are better for the gamestate than wagons at 5-1.

Because wagons.

I'd rather vote manip not mess things up today, on a day where there is a real chance wagons are important.

I think probably just don't, yeah.

Meh. I see a lot of town players go through a cycle of high energy d1 -> don't do anything for d2+ -> wakes up and tries to solve the entire game in lylo. Vs elims usually just drop off and continue to drop off, because they have nothing to actually need to solve in lategame. Mint Heron (5): Indigo Weasel, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Mauve Crocodile Ivory Dragonfly (4): Mint Heron, Emerald Falcon, Azure Mouse, Amber Vulture

Ivory Dragonfly because wagons. Noted, I figured it was likely you but didn't see it. Fwiw I looked through the game expecting to find Mint Heron/Ivory Dragonfly as not e/e, and came back with them looking insanely e/e despite having the same claim. I do think in a world with e!Mint Heron specifically, elims are voting Mint Heron today. In an e!Mint Heron v!Ivory Dragonfly world, there would likely be more push on Ivory Dragonfly (although it would depend slightly on what role Mint Heron flips I think). In an v!Mint Heron e!Ivory Dragonfly world, Mint Heron obviously gets pushed over Ivory Dragonfly, which can be a lot like what we're seeing here, but can also be a lot like world 1 with bussing. Point being that there's likely elims voting for Mint Heron right now. Mint Heron (5): Indigo Weasel, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan, Mauve Crocodile Ivory Dragonfly (2): Mint Heron, Emerald Falcon I lean town on Coral Swan I think. I put them low in my reads because they can be paired with a lot of slots that could be elims, but I socially townread them enough. Mint Heron/Indigo Weasel are unlikely e/e pretty much ever, outside of fringe hellbussing worlds that I don't think are real in this gamestate. So Ivory Dragonfly or Mauve Crocodile make a lot of sense to be a partner bussing here, and both do work as e/e with Mint Heron.

In a game that's been mostly a lower level of effort, it stands out as a positive. At the very least, it's pro-town. Elims atp are doing fine at blending in, given we've misexe'd three times in a row, so the effort isn't necessary for an elim. Compared to town who is genuinely trying to solve. I like their worldbuilding efforts. --------------------------------------------- Game Breakdown This is basically a lot of noting down significant posts and occasional analysis. I'm not considering e!Melon Dingo worlds at all. Side note: I am never doing this ever again. Day 1 Night 1 Day 2 Night 2 Day 3 Night 3 Day 4 page 1 Things to note: Aka the summary you were looking for when scrolling past all the spoilers, because who would even read all that? (Understandable, me too). Mauve Crocodile not mentioning townread on Magenta Albatross during all of d1, despite that being a frequently voted slot Ivory Dragonfly and Mint Heron wolfsiding by voting PR on d2. Fuchsia Ostrich wagon is started by Mauve Crocodile despite them saying Ivory Dragonfly/Mint Heron would be good votes for d3. Mint Heron has a vote negated on wagon; wagons would've been 5-4 otherwise. This vote negation was not claimed by anyone to my knowledge. The d3 spoiler is the most worth reading imo. Possible Worlds Note: When I say paired, I mean they can be e/e. When I say unpaired, I mean they're unlikely e/e. I excluded myself and Melon Dingo. Ivory Dragonfly/Mint Heron are a difference check at the very least. They can be e/e imo. I intended to actually go through and list the most likely worlds, but this took me so long and I suck at worldbuilding outside of pairs. My reads right now are around: Conclusion, aka the part you should read Kill the wolfsiders. Kill Mint Heron AND Ivory Dragonfly atp. It's criminal that we voted Fuchsia Ostrich over the two who voted a claimed PR who got shot by elims overnight. They are also mechanically always at least a difference check (e/v), and can be e/e for reluctance to vote each other. Mint Heron is more likely an elim I think, despite the wagon taking off making me a bit nervous. Current VC Mint Heron (4): Indigo Weasel, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan Ivory Dragonfly (1): Mint Heron Charcoal Hyena (1): Mauve Crocodile

Socially townreading for weak reasons. But yes, mech has been making me hesitate there, I just find their recent efforts are more towny than anyone else right now.

In a world with v/v Smokers, I'd image Melon Dingo would have to be an elim for balance. Melon Dingo is town, so it really just points to Smokers should be e/v. Keep in mind that we have 2 flipped town PRs already. Amber Vulture Azure Mouse Charcoal Hyena Chartreuse Penguin Coral Swan - Soother Emerald Falcon - Vanilla Indigo Weasel Ivory Dragonfly - Smoker Mauve Crocodile Mint Heron - Smoker Melon Dingo - Mistborn Amethyst Scorpion - Vanilla Magenta Albatross - Vanilla Cream Tuatara - Lurcher Fuchsia Ostrich - Rioter In order for both Mint Heron and Ivory Dragonfly to be town, that would mean we have two town Smokers + town Mistborn + town Lurcher + town Rioter. This is just not possible without the elims having to be pretty stacked. In this world, Coral Swan is 99% an elim. But just by itself, having two Town Smokers just does not make sense in this world. There is, from my point of view, a 0% chance that both Smoker claims and the Mistborn claim are all town. Melon Dingo, as I think we should all be able to agree, is town. So the Smokers are a difference check (e/v) at the least. We should always hit at least one elim between the two of them, unless our GMs were silly with the distro, which I just do not believe happened right now. I would think that the Smoker claims should be e/v and not e/e. Not very sure on that. At this point, I would probably just split up the playerlist fmpov: 1 elim here: Ivory Dragonfly Mint Heron 2 elims here: Amber Vulture Azure Mouse Charcoal Hyena Chartreuse Penguin Coral Swan Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile Which is not very narrowed down, rip. Operating off of the assumption it was 12 v 3 to begin with, which is standard, and I don't think town is strong enough in terms of PRs to consider a 11 v 4 starting distro. (11 v 4 -> 9 v 4 -> 7 v 4 -> 5 v 4) vs (12 v 3 -> 10 v 3 -> 8 v 3 -> 6 v 3 -> 4 v 3) - remember that it is day 4, so it would be do or die today in a 4 elim world (assuming my counting skills are ok today). In my opinion, it's just not worth considering this world. A 2 elim world is very unlikely with the amount of town PRs we likely have, I just don't really see that being an option, hence why just solve for a 3 elim world. I lean town on Coral Swan the most out of everyone in the bottom group, and don't really have a preference between the top group - I have reasons both could flip elim here. Coral Swan being town would make me probably find any more PR claims to be likely just an elim imo, since that would be 2 town vote manip, plus I assume a town Smoker (of the two), a town Lurcher, and a town Mistborn. Which already feels like quite a lot. If we were to flip an elim with a weak role, I would be very certain in this world. I know there's a Tineye, and I'd probably lean towards them being a wolf in the world I'm assuming with my reads here, maybe. I'm sure if I had the energy to, I could sit down and read back through all the cycles and figure out who is unlikely e/e with each other in the bottom group, because I suck at worldbuilding for elim teams of 3, but I can figure out plausible worlds for elim teams of 2. I'm just so tired I'm sorry y'all. Will try to work on that later today.

I forgot tbh.

I'm vanilla town ftr. We have had a Rioter and Lurcher flip for town, and have two Soother claims and two Smoker claims. There is basically 0% chance that group is all pure (it would put town at 3 vote manip power, plus 2 whatever Smoker does power, plus a Lurcher, at the very least aka not including if any other town hasn't claimed). I see absolutely no reason why town would have two Smokers, to be completely honest. Melon Dingo is town imo. Mint Heron and Ivory Dragonfly are likely v/e. This should be resolved tomorrow, as in please vote between them instead of flashwagoning someone else like what happened yesterday. Speaking of which, said flashwagon yesterday that flipped town should point towards one of Mint Heron and Ivory Dragonfly being an elim, because otherwise elims would've been happy to vote between those two, and there was a lack of wanting to do so, and an enthusiasm for flashwagoning. Realistically, it should just be resolve Mint Heron / Ivory Dragonfly tomorrow, get an elim flip between the two, and then go from there, I think. I don't honestly have the energy to keep trying to analyze the game, so I apologize for dropping off a lot. Can you explain where you are getting this thought from?

Mint Heron

Probably wolf. Probably town.

Wasn't voting top wagons. Don't actually know if they were top wagons at the time. Fine with all votes here. Ivory Dragonfly.

Heron/Dragonfly. I'm vanitying.

I support both wagons. It's not e/e because two elims claiming the same role is unlikely imo. But it is likely e/v over it being v/v, assuming both claimed exactly Smoker.

Stop voting Melon Dingo ty ty. Mint Heron / Ivory Dragonfly is likely a difference check at the very least. Unlikely there are 2 town Smokers + town Lurcher + town Soother imo (Melon Dingo is likely town), at the very least, not counting any other PRs. I doubt that they are both town in any case, honestly. This is not a town reason to vote a PR. This is a terrible reason to justify a vote on a self-resolving slot. I almost would just flip both at this point. Can someone confirm they both claimed Smoker specifically, ty. @Amber Vulture give reads. However, I am going to vote Amber Vulture who is basically openwolfing right now. Amber Vulture (2): Melon Dingo, Emerald Falcon Ivory Dragonfly (1): Mauve Crocodile Melon Dingo (1): Amber Vulture

Town. I'm not. They're probably a difference check (v/e).

PR aka power role aka anyone who with an ability/night action/etc. I think Melon claimed soothing Mint Heron, but it did not work? I'm actually low efforting the rest of this game.

... let's not comment on the fact I thought that meant he was a Thug. I'm out of touch.

My initial guess I had written out and then deleted is not always true iirc. If Mauve Crocodile claimed, I missed it and I may be legit throwing atp. I have the worst reading comprehension ever, I might've missed something even if it was obvious. You gotta bold it and put it in size 7 font for me to 100% notice.