Emerald Falcon

*sigh* this game...

Yeah, unless I'm double-tapped by the elim, I'll survive. Either way, you'll get your confirmation. And to be clear, Penguin was the one who scanned Croc as red right? Because I'm on Paranoia part 2.

Yeah, ngl. I've been considering paranoid possibilities about Swan with defences in brackets - They are not the Coinshot at all [where is the counter-claim?]. They are the elim Coinshot, which requires another elim alive because both their kill and elim kill went through last Night [Lurcher, Thug, Lurcher, Tineye, Coinshot, ??? - Six member elim team versus Thug, Smoker x3, Tineye x2, Mistborn x2, Lurcher, Rioter is a seriously mechanically mismatched line up]. Uhhh, those are the only scenarios that explain Coinshot kills. I am, however, confused by the whole Swan-Rhino thread-brawl about Swan's claim. I went through the whole thing forwards-and-backwards three times and I still did not understand a thing. Can you elaborate @Coral Swan? Number system go brr but why is the above point even a point under possibilities?

Alright, for me, it's between Ostrich, Toucan, Chameleon and Elephant. Apparently, Ostrich and Toucan could not have submitted the kill, which narrows it down to Cham and Elephant. I'm a village Thug. Which had me confused for half of the game. I was like "3 Thugs, so many Lurches, huh? For sure, there are loads of Mistborn in the game." Anyway, it should be very easy to prove that I am a Thug. Shoot me in the Night. Obviously, Penguin would not be protecting me, and there are no more Lurchers left in the game. After proving that I'm the Thug, we just need to look at the elim team composition, because 2 Lurchers and 2 Thugs is genuinely beyond the realm of possibility for a GM to put in an elim team against this village composition. Also, there's been no other village Thug. 1 Lurcher and 0 Thug is too little a protection for the village. Moving past the mechanical proof and the fact the I was put up for execution in D2, I voted for Flamingo in D3, moving them to the lead, when elims were either preferring a non-exe on Lion or trying to push Cham to the front. I started to consider the extreme paranoia case of e!Swan and then my dumb head realised they would not be able to use both Coinshot and Spiked kill in the same Night (confirmation @Devotary of Spontaneity?). Plan A - D8 - Vote out Elephant (if not yet won ->) N8 - Shoot me (possibility that elim might also double-tap me in which case you also get confirmation of my alignment) D9 - Vote out Chameleon Plan B - D8 - Vote out Elephant (if not won ->) N8 - Shoot Chameleon (if not won ->) D9 - Vote me out (you get confirmation of my Thuggery from my survival) N9 - Shoot ??? (assuming Swan survives N8) Edit: Just seen the Elephant post, was probably ninja'd while typing - but yeah if it isn't Elephant, it's Chameleon. Quite confident of that.

Started the re-read to judge and guess the elim team members' statements - You could weakly argue that most of them are likely villagers to avoid repetition. The approach mimics that of evil AN12 Falcon. Since they were caught early on, I find it unlikely the Spiked embraced the strategy again. Crocodile feels very aware of the evil tactic so it comes off as genuine here. Leaning towards reading this as the truth. Penguin good with votes on them by 2 elims. Toucan good with vote on Scorpion. Hmmm, E/V or E/E? Could be either way. Leaning towards nudging a fellow elim to be more active. Mouse good because of vote from Crocodile? Eventually shifts to Kangaroo though. Notable vote shift. I'll bring to your notice the same Crocodile post mentioned by y'all a while back. It's the one with the apparent slip. In addition to the slip regarding Albatross, the one elim indication I have been observing since a while is that elims are casually harsher/meaner/user stronger language to define their teammates than when compared to describing villagers. This is mainly because the elim teammate being described understands that the poster is deliberately using the words and do not mean them, whereas if used upon a villager, they might bring attention to it, call them back on it and basically put the poster in the spotlight. Here, the words "nonsense post" is unnecessarily harsh and fake, and I believe it's because they were talking about their teammate. Mouse and Toucan engage with Crocodile's reason to read them evil. Interesting to note that none of the flipped elims interacted/rebutted the reasonings given by Crocodile. Inviting everyone to read this post from Flamingo - Elims usually hide one of their teammates in the most suspected tier, here being death list. Swan is apparent scanned village. Heron turned green. That leaves us with Alb. Notice how none of the points refer anything suspicious done by Alb, and their name is just dropped there at the end. Just further down the thread, Meerkat enquiries about Alb. Flamingo gives a reasoning but also semi-backtracks and half-provides a defence for Alb in the same sentence. I think that's all I'll be able to cover before rollover [note to self - pg 8]. Current tier of muddled thoughts is [Albatross, Dragonfly] -> [Chameleon, Ostrich] -> [Mouse, Weasel] -> [Toucan, Elephant] -> [Penguin, Swan] Dragonfly still in the first pool, but their actions (last minute vote) doesn't quite match unless they are teammates with Penguin. I think evidence of evil Magenta Albatross is a lot more than Dragonfly.

N2 - Flamingo survived, possible self-Lurch D3 - Lion survived, Thug/Mistborn N3 - Flamingo survived again ; possibilities - D4 - Crocodile dies (someone made sure Crocodile died over Flamingo, malicious or innocent. Was thinking if it could be an evil person knowing Flamingo would drain another kill in the Night, but why bring attention to Croc who was relatively not under suspicion) N4 - Flamingo survives x3 ; D5 - Flamingo dies N5 - Lion survives Let's look at the possibilities surrounding Flamingo's survival - They were protected by someone else in N2/N4, and self protected in N3. The likelihood of Mistborn rolling Iron exactly when needed in alternate cycles is highly improbable to match so well, leading to a case of a second Spiked Lurcher. They self-protected in N2/N4 and were protected by someone else in N3. Remember, Lion is either a Thug or Mistborn-rolled Pewter during D3, so they could not have protected Flamingo in N3 (cannot roll Iron and Pewter in the same cycle). This leads to a scenario of either Iron-rolled Spiked Mistborn or Spiked Lurcher. Lion claims to have rolled Pewter during D3, D5 and now D6. This still does not exclude the Spiked Lurcher/another Spiked Mistborn who could protect Flamingo N3. But this is likely a fabrication and the most likely solution is Opal Lion is a simple Spiked Thug and was protected by the second Spiked Lurcher last night.

*waits for Night flips before re-reading* *no Night flips* This is getting exhausting *sigh* Flamingo

Pardon me, I have been sick for the past couple of days and I'm nursing myself back to health. Really wish I could put more effort other than narrowing the discussion to Crocodile and Flamingo. But just catching up with 2 pages is flaring my headache. I'll will be back when I'm fine. I do I have one question to ask to @Azure Mouse, though. Any idea why the potential Seeker would choose to Seek Crocodile when there was ambiguity about Flamingo and Lion?

I isolated their posts after you asked because at time of listing the order, my thoughts about them were bad vibes + bad static D1 vote. I do find it odd that they mentioned they expected Spiked to go after them. It implies that one of the reasons the Spiked killed Dingo was to put suspicion on Weasel. Weird because why would the Spiked choose Weasel to frame. In addition their post feel like empty content - the one where they speculate the v-e numbers remaining but they don't conclude by saying they don't really have any suspects. Probably not as odd as I thought, but definitely on the list. I'd probably relegate them to the Toucan/Dragonfly tier.

In the decreasing order of willing to vote out - Flamingo > Weasel > (Toucan, Dragonfly) > Hyena > (Scorpion, Penguin, Lion) > Ostrich

Ah no, my evil read of you is mainly vibes (non-mainly connections and certain diametrically opposing reads on players). Strong vibes, but mainly vibes nonetheless. I was enquiring to see if there's anything to support the vibes, and to see where you're coming from to check if my vibes are warranted or unwarranted. Anyway, running backwards is not by itself an evil indication. The reason to run backwards is, which is why I asked. Like, "if it's as simple as "Why would v!Dragonfly panic?", why didn't this thought occur in N1 itself?" was my doubt. So basically, post-D1 actions causing retrospective revised interpretation of the vote, got it. To be clear about my thoughts pertaining to Dragonfly, their D1 vote is suspicious, but their D2 vote is... I'd not like to say "village", but rather "not optimal evil play" which is making me reconsider them. D1 vote was still weird enough for me to submit their name for the Shooting.

Muddled thoughts - I've having varying degrees of suspicion on two distinct groups of people not likely to be evil with each other. Group A - [Meerkat, Hyena, Toucan] ; Group B - [Dragonfly, Flamingo] Croc, Mouse, Albatross, Elephant different shades of green. Of all the possible scenarios of Flamingo, it's probably the Occam's Razor case. Evil!Flamingo helped out by Evil!Lurcher (self or teammate). It's a reasonable assumption to make that a village Lurcher would not protect Flamingo give the directions to shoot them by so many players. Slightly less confident but equally reasonable assumption that if there was evil!Lurcher, we'd have at least named one Spiked out of all of our choices for the kill and they'd have protected such a player instead of a case in which they frame v!Flamingo by protecting them. The opposite of Occam's Razor, the most unlikely scenarios in this case would be v!Lurcher or v!Thug Flamingo, or possible e!Lurcher did protect v!Flamingo in which case the Spiked team were really confident that they wouldn't be the target of the Shot leading to the implication that either our shoot choices were horribly wrong OR it's the case of e!Coinshot. This is just the attack analysis of Flamingo, I'd really like to go back and check the reason for suspicion/heat on them during D2 as I cannot recall anything significant + ISO them. @Salmon Meerkat, why the U-turn on reading Dragonfly vote from N1 to now? During N1, you leaned towards Dragonfly's last-minute vote as village action, and now it's the opposite. Same with you, Hyena. Your opinion during N1 was the same as Meerkat's, you read the panicked vote from Dragonfly as village. Why do you now seem to agree with Meerkat's change of stance? Direct contradiction - And it's an interpretation of a vote, not that of a player. So I'm not sure why an interpretation of a vote should change 180 degrees. I'd be very interested in voting Hyena if there's some support here. For Future-me during re-read: Scorpion x Weasel x Toucan X Meerkat x Hyena + Penguin?

This is from Community, so any of you know Community fans among us?

I finally got myself free and sat down to catch up only to get pulled to a 4-hour meeting and now I'm mentally depleted. Initially, I hoped for a thorough catch-up, but because of the stated reason, it's only going to be glance through and brief thoughts. D1: Hyena voting Kangaroo for lurking when there were votes on other lurkers. Annoyed at my initial activity in the game being termed as 'effort' and suspicious at players specifically going 'hate to effort-clear but gonna do it anyway and give village read'. Particularly because it wasn't some post-by-post time-consuming analysis to be termed as an 'effort-post'. It was just my thoughts of players who made impressions on me. In fact, slotting the post as an RP took more time than typing up my thoughts. I was on at the time on D1 rollover and noticed 5 players tied at 2 votes [Iguana, Dingo, Mouse, Penguin, Kangaroo]. I was about to add to that by changing my vote to Chameleon but Dingo took their vote off Chameleon and I did not have a problem with any of the above players dying. In the words of Meerkat - Dragonfly's last minute vote on Dingo looks more suspicious than innocent. Granted Iguana turned green, but the move feels more from a possible teammate of player with two votes than a panicked villager. Possible connections to watch out for - Dragonfly x Kangaroo died N1 , Dragonfly x Penguin (players with 2 votes) N1: Apparently everyone reading Dragonfly's actions exactly the opposite as I read it, huh? :P. Perhaps I should reconsider, because their post explaining their vote does seem genuine, but, I do not know who else to be more precise than this, it feels like e!Stick genuine [not saying the player is Stick or anything of the sort, it's comparable to say... an adorable moose you're about to pat just before it spears you (yes, I've gone off the rails, allow me)]. Either way, connections are still important to remember and look back in the future. Players finding Dragonfly's vote village - [Hyena, Meerkat, Toucan]. D2: Note Hyena x Meerkat [gut is saying there's something there]. Toucan's fixation on Elephant a bit weird given we've had players with a lot more content and it's D2. Continuing the previous point, Toucan gives opinion about a player with more content and... they are self-aware, but I'm not sure I like this self-awareness. Toucan x Hyena Tuatara still good. See, this is what an effort post looks like. Note Opal Lion. Okay let me make one thing clear. Poke-voting on player and then not changing the vote when there's a lot of discussion going on, and waiting for the player you poke-voted on to post despite all the discussion, is definitely not a justification for the vote to stay. I do not see any village-motivation behind it [this is regarding players saying I voted on Dragonfly simply for their poke-vote + Dragonfly saying "you know what a poke vote is, right?"]. Re: effort clear, refer to previous points. And not sure if it's the RP, but I feel this harshly discredits my vote as a throwaway. It wasn't. I mentioned all the players who were in the same group as Dragonfly and gave clear reasoning as to why I was choosing them above the others. This feels... both performative and genuine. Most of it does feel real, but the bolded part and particularly the sentence - "But this is how Tyrian games are lost," seems performative and it triggered me. Rhino gut village. I still have no idea why players are voting for Flamingo. I'm convinced I'm playing a different game and it's slightly worrying that majority of the players have Meerkat, Hyena and Toucan as village reads and I'm finding them, at the very least, slightly evil. Turning a gut read to sound evil, @Fuchsia Ostrich?? Literally stated it as a gut reaction to their post. Rhino maybe not gut village anymore. Dragonfly 6th vote on Heron..., that's village or risk-hungry evil. Hyena's vote and then retraction, then vote on me feels like not wanting to be on the eliminated player's train. But I really don't know. Speculating further, it felt like they were trying to adjust for a vote manipulation tie they had a knowledge of. This took longer than expected, sigh. These are my targets to shoot - Penguin, Hyena, Toucan and Dragonfly. Edit: Add Lion too.

Been busy in the last few days and cannot ensure that I'll be free enough to catch up before the rollover. I should be able to get back to the game night cycle onwards.

It's probably not a good thing that he kept missing important bits like this. He walked up to Aurelien who had just mentioned the confrontation. "Excuse me, I was perhaps in the other part of the town and missed the argument. What was it about? Is it just the part about Willam "locking" in Obli-gator as villager?" Luciel scratched his head confusingly. He was a bit annoyed. Perhaps... they did it different at Tyrian Falls? As far he knew, civilians did not question the methods of the sheriff. Oh well, better explain it clearly. This person has made the wrong conclusion from my statements. He strode forward confidently and stood in front of the fellow named Reverse, answering him as directly as he could. "My issue is less that Dragonfly are not changing their vote and more to the fact that they aren't contributing to the discussion. They clearly could post as they did, but decided to do it in a non-contributory way. One of the Spiked-indication is they plonk down votes and try to go unnoticed WHILE posting, which is what it looks like Dragonfly is doing. For sure, WitLees [Chameleon] is also guilty of this and I did mention I was suspicious of them. But all the discussion around Aylia happened AFTER the last time WitLees spoke, which was my point [OOC: this is assuming they haven't been online since the last time they posted]." "You misunderstand. I wasn't talking about it statistically. It just isn't optimum/orthodox for the Spiked team to do because more number of Spiked sharing info = more chances of confusing who is supposed to know what = more chances of a slip-up, which is why I mentioned there might be at least one villager among the three UNLESS the Spiked like gambits and taking risks. All these are observations to re-look in the future." [OOC: Sorry for the mention, and all the best for you exams, but] "Why does WitLees suspecting Aylia alter your decision, and what is your opinion on WitLees. I don't recall you mentioning them when you spoke earlier. Is the reasoning you provided to suspect Heron greater than your reason to suspect Aylia or do you just not want to kill her anymore?" "This is interesting. They haven't been in communication with me privately as well. However, unlike you, I did not reach out to them. But, I'd like to know if there were other private communications from them too."

After a tough but routine first day, Luciel plopped down at Bates' and ordered a drink. As the bar was quite a ways outside Tyrian Falls, not many customers were present and he could speak with Bates freely. "So, how goes the hunt? Did you find what you want?", asked Bates cleaning the shelves and preparing the bar for the influx of customers. "Nothing on the Ana end. She still refuses to see me and I cannot afford to blow her cover in public. We'll need to meet in private. But right now, I'm busy with the sheriff duties. Neglect them for too long or fail to protect these villagers and I'd come under scrutiny." "You, my friend, have chosen the worst time to assume the role of sheriff at the Falls." "Yeah, I'm beginning to think the same. This business of Spiked, it's hard to enough to protect myself and Ana, now I've got to look for them while protecting the villagers?" "Hey, heavy is the... shirt? That wears the badge? Heh." "..." "Alright, alright. I might be able to help. What are your observations?" Quite a few people claiming to mass-communicate. Koros [Ostrich], Aylia [Hyena] and WitLees [Chameleon] are all sending messages to everyone in the village. Unless the Spiked are gambit-hungry, at least one of them is a villager. In addition, Aylia claimed to be messaging everyone AFTER I mentioned to Koros that one of the Spiked indication for me was a player communicating with everyone and that I was keeping an eye on Koros and WitLess. So for Aylia to proclaim mass-communication after that indicates Koros and Aylia are likely not Spiked together. Cream Tuatara genuinely feel like they care for the village. Their suspicion on Hyena seems to come from a natural village perspective. Another notable Fallian (what do you call the occupants of Tyrian Falls?) is Obli-gator [Crocodile]. The first person to change suspicion and give a valid reason, as well as one of the few seemed to be leaning towards catching the Spiked than narrating their life stories. Leaning villager here. A group of Fallians [Dragonfly, Chameleon, Elephant] shouted out their suspicion once and did not speak about it later even though have spoken after that. Among these, I'm most suspicious of [Ivory Dragonfly] who suspected [Magenta Albatross] earlier in the day, and spoke recently but did not mention about the suspicion or change it. It's odd when you consider Albatross hasn't spoken at all. Chameleon on Hyena is the same case but not as suspicious as they previously spoke 14 hours ago. Elephant on Scorpion is also similar to Dragonfly. But I get the feeling that Dragonfly is deliberately trying to hide behind whereas Elephant has made some comments about Smokers. Unsure why Swan voted on Dingo. Noting down that Weasel voted on Dingo for "unaesthetic way of communcating" even though Dingo already had a vote. Reasoning might have passed if it was the first vote, but when it's the second vote on a player, it's a red flag. "Well, it seems like you don't need any help, sheriff! You're doing quite well all by yourself." "Yeah, but just how well is yet to be seen." "You know what, you can leave a report here. I'll keep it safe and you can come back and check it for information later or compare it with your future reports." "That's a smart idea. I'll just keep it slightly coded in case it ends up in wrong hands." Sheriff's Report At least 1 V in Ostrich, Hyena, Chameleon. Hyena/Chameleon likely not E/E. Gut V on Tuatara. Leaning Mild V towards Crocodile. Dragonfly, Elephant, Chameleon all different shades of E. Swan - Dingo? Leaning Mild E on Weasel.

"Luciel. Lu-see-yel. Loo-si-el. Luciel, " practiced the man moving his jaws and cheek muscles to allow the name to flow out naturally. He held out his hand and introduced himself to the mirror in front of him, "Good morning, Mister Mayor. I'm Luciel Hood, the newly transferred sheriff to Tyrian Falls," Well, as perfect as it could be when you don’t have a reference. All I have is his personal information. I’d have to hope no one has seen Luciel. Bates assures me that the young mayor had not met Luciel. It was his father, the old mayor, who got acquainted with him. But it never hurts to be careful. Bates was a bar owner just outside Tyrian Falls, in which he happened to be drinking when a bunch of Thugs arrived to shake Bates down for “protection money”. Coincidentally, original Luciel was also minding his business here, and being the protector of law that he is, decides to take them down all by himself. It… did not end well. He and Bates did step in to help and though they did take all the Thugs down, it wasn’t before they got Luciel. Now taking over as the new sheriff? That was just opportunistic from him. He… had some business in the town. "Luciel" breathed in the air as he walked into the town square for the first time. As the seemingly new sheriff of the town, the first order of business after meeting the mayor was to introduce himself to the rest of the town folks. Following that, he’d begin his search. Ana had chosen the perfect place to go into hiding. He had to meet her again. It had been fifteen years since he’d last seen his accomplice/lover. He couldn’t give up at the first hurdle. It’s the whole reason he took over as Luciel in the first place. He had to be cautious as he needed to maintain the façade, but in addition, he also had to keep a low profile. After all, Ana wasn’t the only one in hiding, and if he did attract his pursuers to the Falls, he’d lead them directly to Ana.

Tie results in no kill

Why would you claim auggghughguhguhgguh One, we don't know you are the only one with that role (if in fact you do have it). Two, elims are more likely to attack you now because pms don't help them. EDIT: meaning getting rid of pms is something elims would want

Not no chance of them dying, but yeah that's another possibility.

Oh I'm blind. So someone wanted beagle dead and someone wanted penguin protected.

Well, we basically get a new D1 with one less villager. Isn't that wonderful. I guess this probably means that there isn't vote manip? Maybe a villager chose not to use their manip, but I would have expected an elim to change it so they can get a kill. Unless both Scorp and Croc are elim.

Amethyst Scorpion (2): Magenta Albatross, Oxblood Beagle Emerald Falcon (2): Coral Swan, Amethyst Scorpion Chartreuse Penguin (1): Mauve Crocodile Indigo Weasel (1): Charcoal Hyena Coral Swan (1): Amber Vulture Mauve Crocodile (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Azure Mouse Fuchsia Ostrich (1): Emerald Falcon Should be correct vote count. Currently, it's a tie which results in no kill which isn't what we want. Plus, if elims have vote manip, it won't actually be a tie because they'll choose a villager to kill. As it stands, I'd be more willing to change my vote to croc than scorp.

I think distro is even harder to determine in this game, as it could be a smaller team with with more jumps available (the number isn't revealed to us right?) or a larger team with less or no jumps. I'm guessing no more than four, and probably no less than two.