Amethyst Scorpion

39 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I'll do another megapost later today regarding what I think the results from Ostrich's thing are.

Later is now, apparently.

Going player-by-player:

Cham:

• Initial reaction: "You claiming Elim mistborn with bad luck?" followed up by "[vote]Ostrich I guess?"
• From here on out Cham radiates major Aftermath Energy (a term I just made up, but what I mean is that Cham's interactions with Ostrich feel exactly like the vibes of after the game is over and we're all just chatting in thread, which to me heavily indicates v!Cham)

Iguana:

• Initial reaction: "Haha what" followed up by "Haha what ????"
• Asks about jesters as well as expresses doubt wrt Ostrich being solo (but not to the validity of the claim)
• Sort of just vibes around for the rest of the turn which I don't really liiiiike but I also can't point out specifically why I wouldn't like it so idek
• Agree that I don't like Iguana's haphazardness towards the claim, before and after, in general.

Beagle:

• Initial reaction: "... This doesn't feel like a deserved win at all I'm so sorry" (with two further edits expressing how they feel they played like crem and a comment on the inactivity guidelines)
  • I think this is really indicative of v!Beagle, actually. Which makes me happy because I was dreading finding the opposite read here loooool. But no, I think the continued edits and the comments on OOG stuff are v!indicative despite their surprising acceptance of the claim for someone who I would have thought would know Ostrich well enough to doubt (though admittedly i have zero idea who Beagle is)
  • Their desire to vote for a draw is also majorly v!indicative.
  • I think they also dropped their anon persona a bit which goes back to Aftermath Energy

Penguin:

• Initial reaction: None. Jumps straight into the banter and ignores the claim completely. I have no idea how to read this.
  • e case: He's avoiding showing TMI on the situation
  • v case: The claim was a page back by this point and the reactions had kind of run their course.
• Secondary reaction: "Anyway what is going... what"
  • Again have no idea how to read this. Could be a villager realizing they should probably mention the matter at hand or an elim... realizing they should probably mention the matter at hand.

Lion:

• Initial reaction: "Sigh" followed by an unrelated quote, but then followed by (technically thirding) the call for a draw. Again, I village read this, but if someone wants to tell me I'm confbiasing my village reads that is a totally fair thing to think.
• I also village read their reaction to Ostrich's retraction.

Zebra:

• Initial reaction: "Guys, I had this epiphany that Ostrich might be evil! Why are there so many pages, what did I miss!" followed by them saying their two shots would have been Ostrich and Ele. That reads very conveniently evil to me but at the same time I don't know if e!Zebra says that knowing they're both village.
• I do like his line of 'Sorry about your luck, I'll ask questions after the game' though.

Albatross:

• Initial reaction: First post back is unrelated. Second post back is a VC. Third post back is an activity update (still unrelated).
  • This looks like a far worse version of Penguin ignoring the claim. With the VC, there's no way they don't have an idea of what's going on, so they're blatantly dodging making any kind of comment on what happened, which looks like they're dodging revealing their TMI. @Quartz Zebra it's definitely worth shooting here tonight.

Swan:

• Initial reaction: "I think I'll vote for Ostrich. Sorry that your team went inactive, I was having fun. I think I'll stick around and try more of these."
  • My read of this heavily relies on if Swan is actually new. If they are, I village read this. If they aren't, I elim read this.

Meerkat:

• Initial reaction: To naked vote Ostrich, after Ostrich revealed it was a gambit. Funnily enough I'm willing to lock this village because surely an elim doesn't vote wrong here with their TMI after Ostrich just gave them a reason to not.

Kanga:

• Initial reaction: None, because Ostrich revealed before they could see it. They posted to say that, which I think is NAI.

TL;DR (but do read pls):

• Cham village because of Aftermath Energy.
• Beagle village because of apologetic reactions and offering for a draw.
• Lion village for confusion and seconding the draw.
• Meerkat village for voting Ostrich after Ostrich revealed the gambit.
• Zebra village for apologetic reactions and for guestbook comment.
• Swan village if new, evil if not.
• Albatross evil because they were actively avoiding commenting on the situation.
• Iguana ??? because Iguana.
• Penguin ??? because.

My PoE right now is

[Penguin, Swan, Alb, Croc, Iguana, Kanga]

28 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

so now I want to shoot Scorp! 

Trust your gut. Kill all of them. 

...Can you try to explain why because I know I'm very biased but that is quite possibly the worst shot you could make right now .-.

17 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

What made it seem fake to you? I have my own opinion but I want to know what yours is.

1. Ostrich was lock village in my mind. He had heavily pushed Vulture to lengths I don't think ever would come from a teammate.
    
2. The claim itself was inconsistent. He first went from claiming solo Mistborn (which would create a distro that wouldn't make sense given the player count, imo) to claiming Ele as a teammate and then citing that as the reason for claiming. If that was true, he would have said it the first time.
    
3. The timing of his claim doesn't make sense. It's one thing to openwolf to a thread that's killing you anyway (AG8 Hyena) and it's another to claim to a thread that has locked you in as village. People were even moving away from Ele at that point.
    
4. Ostrich's playstyle. It's no secret who he is, and he literally said it multiple times. You'll be hard pressed to find a game where e!Ostrich doesn't fight till the very end. And then some. I can point to a very personal example of this! There was no world where e!Ostrich folds in a threadstate where the trains were on people other than his proposed elim team and people very solidly village read him. It would not happen.
    
5. There was a post where he basically admitting to faking it. After I first called him out on this, he said "Aman? Trolling? Never..." which. Like. It's not hard to read between the lines there knowing anything about Aman as a player.

15 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said:

If Croc is evil, we're assuming three inactive elims, which would be pitiful! 

Pitiful, yes, but possible. There's no way for GMs to use inactivity while balancing reliably so there's no way to use it to clear. The reason I want to shoot Croc is because there's no way they're going to do anything except filter dodge for the rest of the game. Killing them now means that if we fumble this further to exlo we don't have to blindly vote people we don't have any information on.

12 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Why didn’t you vote Penguin there if you never believed it to begin with?

If I'm honest, it was largely because I didn't read the thread after he initially claimed. I had IRL stuff, so I didn't log back on until ten minutes till rollover, and I skimmed everything too fast and missed Ostrich's initial reveal (which came a time that makes way more sense than when I thought he revealed around eleven minutes to rollover). This miss + a misunderstanding of how close the trains were + my busy day + an annoyance and apathy towards the thread + the village read of Penguin I still kinda have = me staying on Alb. Which was obviously the wrong choice but I'm kinda whatever about it because every single person yesterday also make a mistake /shrug

1 hour ago, Quartz Zebra said:

My strategy is to collect the votes from tonight and do a weighted RNG for who to kill! But I'm personally leaning towards Iguana+Lion/Kangaroo!

You're riding your village read of Beagle from D1 a little too hard. 

Shh that's a tomorrow problem! 

If you shoot Lion I'll shoot you :P.

Iguana too I'd rather solve in thread because it's actually possible to do so, and Kangaroo is the null slot I village read the most.

...With you on Beagle, tbh >>

Oooh and Iguana claimed. I actually believe that!

I'll do another megapost later today regarding what I think the results from Ostrich's thing are.

Actually kinda glad Ele died though

@Quartz Zebra you should shoot Croc

Dude that’s really dumb

Gah I should have piled on Penguin

Holding back more choice words

@Oxblood Beagle why the heck did you sheep that so easily it was the fakest thing 

Ostrich why the heck did you hold onto that for so long, revealing that soon to rollover was way too close

smh

I’m just not gonna move lol 

I still don’t believe that

Going on record >>

Just now, Chartreuse Penguin said:

I’m Chartreuse Penguin. You know, the one who RPs, does NKA, gets called out for Going Dingo (when I’m not smh), and doesn’t know how to use PMs effectively. That Penguin.

You also go brrr

3 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

and it's mostly emerald and azure arguing who is Kas

This continues to be my favourite anon game bit tbh

Just now, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Wait actually?? I thought you were Illwei

Remind me to show you a post after the game that’s hilarious because of this

Anyway I’m going to continue to vote who I think is evil and not publicly claim my identity even if it’s obvious

I literally still don’t believe you

Maybe I’m the fool

Fair enough.

Also I’m 99.9% sure Ostrich is trolling here 

32 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

1. There is likely to be 6 spiked, with one or two weaker roles (vanilla, smoker, Tineye)

Why did you say a Spiked Seeker confirmed a 5p team and now that we have a flipped eThug you say there’s likely to be 6?? I don’t see how 6 is ever the case with this distro and player count 

Beside the point though 

I don’t really care if people are complacent on Alb. That’s to be expected given a likely tired elim team ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

If people want to flip Penguin, fair enough, but I won’t help (and I mean it this time)

2 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I am indeed

23 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Tbh I've given up on pursuing penguin since no one seems to follow

Pretty sure they’re still a top train right now

1 minute ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Gives us an insight into the distro. Fairly passive imo.

Approximately percent chance a vanilla is lying 

Sus claim kill on sight

…Not actually. But you know :P.

I’m vanilla fwiw

7 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

My question is why do you think it's Villagery when I explicitly said I'd come back because I felt guilty? Wouldn't you think that elims would feel more guilty from not posting than villagers?

I wanna go back to lg74 I want to live in lg74 for eternity

EDIT EDIT: we could be a little crazy and kill Beagle I mean we rly could

It was like the /way/ you said it I suppose. Maybe just the whole situation. Like you leaving at all. Idk. But vibes since then have been good so I don’t really want to think too hard about it

Oh geez can we not let’s not I do not want to be yelling at a wall for five cycles again >:|

Definitely not because I’m a coward and don’t want to be mega wrong on my lock v read of them 

I can vote ig again if that helps :).

11 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

After being barely active for the first two cycles, they were suddenly super active during D3, which I think has been the busiest turn so far.

They ask lots of questions but don't necessarily answer many

The part I didn't like about this was that Lion's activity definitely is NAI, if not village indicative, and I think it's really weird to describe it as a reason to suspect them. 

Also, on this second point, do you feel the same way about Iguana?

I personally assume 2 given we had an e!Thug flip.

Just now, Opal Lion said:

oh lol

Also completely irrelevant but I think that's interesting bc i get more annoyed when v

Yeah I almost didn't say that cause it's definitely a Me thing but fwiw I think Penguin is someone who wouldn't care to defend themselves either way; look at their reaction to getting voted D1, it was basically "Well I'll get to extend my record!" lol

1 minute ago, Opal Lion said:

?

Post above mine :p.

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Why have you village read his posting? Because you're basically grasping at straws to read penguin village.

I told you. Gut. His posts seem villagery. I like the work he's putting forth. e!him has shown ample times that he likes to fade into the background but he's posted multiple kinds of analysis posts, NKAs, etc throughout the whole game. The cases on him are not convincing. D1 doesn't adequately incriminate him. He could be evil, but he's by no means the most evil player out there by any metric I've seen.

1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Oh and I like Kangaroo's posts today so far

Ditto^

6 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

I have multiple times and will not again

Here. Read.

Do you disagree with my assessment that your case isn't very good? I mean, obviously. But you didn't comment specifically on why, you just keep repeating that you're right which is extremely unhelpful. I think you're village but I definitely think you're tunneling here. That case of yours is very much grasping at straws and, in some instances, is blatantly false. If you think I'm wrong about your case, then please explain why in real terms.

Not responding to cases is extremely NAI, at least for me, especially when I don't think they're very good. e!me gets tilted when someone is tunneling me and responds more.

Albatross. Can't remember if they have votes but they do now.

Other thought-- if v!Penguin, I also think v!Swan because I don't think e!Swan posts Penguin sus and doesn't vote Penguin given the current vote state if Swan is elim and Penguin is village. With e!Penguin, e!Swan is more possible but idk why they don't vote Iguana here.

Edit: @Opal Lion I found an action for you :p.

10 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Fine then. Give me a case on why Penguin is village, then.

Again, rioting a smoked target makes you lose you vote, so I agree with the conclusion that Tuatara didn't riot D1

I’ve village read his posting since D1. I like the reads lists and analysis he’s producing. It’s distinctly not his e!meta (granted it hasn’t been his v!meta for some time so this is kind of just different but it’s a good different).

To be fair, EoD D1 doesn’t look good for them as the Vulture connection is as stark as it was when I first noticed it, but I still don’t feel like Ostrich is evil and as you pointed out, Tuatara didn’t manip D1.

Again, I’m not sure they’re not evil, I just didn’t like your case specifically. Most of my village read is gut which is right… some of the time.

10 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

Also just kinda wondering why no one's used the fact that I like, soothed a vote off vullture, as like, a point to push on me for.

Oh that was you haha

Nah I don’t think you’re evil

Ridding Cham’s self vote is entirely fair

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

I think saying you understand this push is strange since his reasonings for voting me are uh, not true.

Is there someone who rioted a vote onto penguin on D1? because people are acting like they know multiple manip actions happened. As someone who doesn't know any roles, has no claims, did not PM people, it's very annoying to read posts where people say things as if they should be common knowledge while specifically not explaining anything about it.

Was just about to say this, yeah, Alb’s reasoning feels lazy to me

There was a weird thing where the official VC as shown N1 had a vote rioted onto Hyena (bringing them into the tie) but it’s gone now (presumably because the GMs forgot Hyena was a Smoker at the time). It’s possible that Tuatara was aware enough of the votes to try to give e!Penguin have a 1/3 shot at survival over the 1/2 he had, but they also could have just saved him and I feel like the difference there of how sus it makes Penguin look isn’t that large.

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Penguin was saved d1 by ostrich EoD voting ivory. Penguin and Ostrich could be e/e

Penguin said they have a non-coinshot, non-mistborn, non-seeker, non-vanilla role. They also said not to send the coinshot after them.

Penguin's "analysis" posts consists of one post counting the number of times someone said the word falcon (and making a poe out of it) and reposting all the vote counts.

Penguin's Reasons for voting me d3 seemed insubstantial, and came off to me as "I'm going to vote chameleon anyways but let me attach my master's thesis to it"

Penguin defended Vulture when they had a vote removed from them, and I think we can assume the elims have a soother as well, or a mistborn who drew brass.

Verdict: Penguin is elim

I feel like you didn’t read my case request that closely :p.

Hmm. Forgot about that. But I still think Ostrich is clear.

And having a role and not wanting to die is sus?

I distinctly remember multiple reads lists and NKAs so this is demonstrably false.

They voted you because your gambit that was falling apart didn’t make sense, which was entirely fair :P.

That post you quoted is obviously not a defense of Vulture lol he hypothesized an e!Soother messing with things (which I said as well) and then said we could just kill them anyway

All this to say. I’m not sure if Penguin is evil or not. But there’s a reason I asked someone other than you to case him to me.

Also we don’t have snow, but we have -20 F wind chill so if anyone wants some of that feel free to take it 

15 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

If I don't mention people it's because they don't exist to me! Ele stopped moving so my T Rex brain can't see them! 

Iguana, you said not to shoot Scorp, which is good, but your pick was Alb! Given your position as the deciding vote that put Heron over Vulture, at the very last moment, I see where this is coming from! Checking the Vulture CW makes absolute sense! 

Fair enough. But why slot Ostrich so high on your kill list after their Vulture pushes? Legit curious here because there’s no way you’re not village lol

Eh, checking the counterwagon seems like a much more natural train of thought to take place after the original wagon dies. If that was their motive I don’t see why they don’t suggest Vulture.

Am not so sure. Yes, meta, but I really don’t feel good about how noncommittal you’ve been. About everything. You interrogate everyone but dodge simple questions, you avoid giving specific reads, you keep your own PoE as wide as possible.

Case in point was last turn in our PM with Zebra. I could not get an answer out of you on who he should shoot. You were unsure about everyone. Which, fair, it wasn’t like I was sure Vulture was a hit, but I was sure that this cycle would go the best if we had vulture's flip (whatever that was) and I find it odd how little opinions you have on everyone after questioning everyone so thoroughly the entire game.

So yeah. Science :P.