Amethyst Scorpion

Oh wait so they are a rioter lol

Or does that mean they’re definitely not

My brain can’t even with this rn >>

3 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

It only failed twice. Something about nickels?

Something about you claiming to have failed against someone I trust where that shouldn’t have happened, mostly.

Okay, cool. Actually made good analysis for once.

My thing re: Swan is that there’s no way in heck new player them fake claims smoker D1. Surely.

But that’s also such a weird thing to do as elim (?) honestly I haven’t thought about it long enough and am happy to just clear the slot out. Am wondering about the chance of e!MB!them but haven’t worked out if that makes sense. A riot failing that many times in a row is unprobable though.

I do village read Swan more after this morning fwiw but am willing to acknowledge I vibe read activity a tad too easily

1 minute ago, Coral Swan said:

I'm starting to find it very unlikely that there is a village Seeker. Which would indicate that the Spiked could feasibly lack a Smoker.

I'll also echo the call for @Opal Lion to Soothe me to prove my role.

How conveniently said  

3 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

I'm a very honest person when it comes to D1 claiming regardless of alignment.

Which is why I think you're lock village  

4 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

E!me wins against Penguin always because the village cannot win because I wouldn't die if Exe'd unfortunately 

e!you is never a Thug, remember, that's the entire point of this conversation  

Just now, Coral Swan said:

How does this stuff weigh against Beagle's repeated and insistent defense of Vulture?

Not enough to change my read, obviously. I read Vulture as village for awhile as well and had major cold feet about switching over to them, though I did eventually do it. 

Just now, Salmon Meerkat said:

voting penguin. i had been unable to get on EoD so im not gonna screw this up this time. idk, just a gut feeling, might be me hungry though.

Do you have any reason to add to your gut feeling?

5 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

So, ignoring alignment, if you are willing to grant that I didn't participate as much early on (this is because I am new, was traveling, and starting a new semester btw), but wanted to step up and help my team, then my activity today should largely be neutral.

Can you (or someone else) lay out a case for Beagle as a villager? Because so far I'm not seeing it.

I would call it a net positive, but you're still PoE. And I don't know if I believe that you're new. At least, if you are, this is one heck of an impressive start :P.

Working on calc rn but here's the quick version off the top of my head

1. Called out the spiked/referenced the elim kill in a villagery way early D1
2. Passed Cham's fakeclaim reaction test
3. Passed Ostrich's fakeclaim reaction test (this is the bigger one for me-- legitimately apologetic posting and offering a draw reads extremely sincere and very village)
4. Stellar vibes all around, at least for me, consistent through PMs
5. I said I'd quit SE if this read is wrong so it'd sure better be right (not a reason but w/e)

2 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Excuse me!

I can create a convincing fakeclaim.

I'll believe it when I see it  

Ngl if the game ends with e!you winning the coinflip against v!Penguin in the ultimate ironic culmination of your Penguin tunnel I won't even be mad

2 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Okay, so pretend for a moment that you are village me at the start of this cycle, with my gameplay from the previous part of the game. You are concerned that the elim team wasn't just Vulture plus a load of inactives. What do you do?

I don't know. I mean, the correct answer is "I analyze the previous cycles" but that's unsatisfactory because it's also what inactive elim you does when you see that we're killing all the inactives. The truth is, I'm sure enough that Zebra, Beagle, Cham, and Lion are all village that I don't feel the need to deep back read. We have enough time and enough current thread to work with what we've got. Looking specifically at active players from D1 and finding elims seems like confbias to me.

2 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Oops

Elim Thug is what I was going for, in reference to Vulture.

Definitely rules out the E!Thug Cham idea you raised, which is what I was thinking unlikely anyway. I'm saying that I'm not sure I see a need for a village Thug in the distro in light of a Lurcher, so I'm disbelieving Cham's thug claim.

Ah, I see. I guess at this point I'm inclined to trust the Thug claim as a village one existing makes sense on a distro level. Plus, Cham claimed very early on, and has since shown some inability to convincingly fakeclaim something, so I doubt e!NotThug!them has kept this up

1 hour ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

yes. im doing what i didnt do last cycle.

Which is what?

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

Noted. Trying to play the game is bad. Finding interesting posts is something that only experienced players and/or Spiked can do.

No. Not playing the game until people try to kill you is bad. Finding interesting posts is something everyone should do, not just people under pressure. That's the weird part. It doesn't help that your conclusions align with what most of us think is the evil mindset. It doesn't mean you're wrong and we're right, obviously, but that's where the call for the kill came from.

But if it makes you feel any better, I'm pretty sure you were going to be the next kill anyway :P.

41 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Also, what’s the expected number for the Spiked this game? I’ve been sort of guessing 5, but I’m not completely sure how the roles we have/haven’t seen might impact what would be considered fair.

I would assume 5 given the player count, existence of an e!Thug, and the distro that we've seen so far.

13 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

and an elim spiked

Ah yes

And I am a village Villager 

(What did you mean by this lol)

The chance that the elims have two Thugs in this distro are approximately zero percent, so Cham is as cleared as anyone can be.

8 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

not for very long. Penguin

Do you have a reason to vote there?

10 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

Would anyone object to my shooting Swan tonight! 

Swan would 

I’d throw Alb on that list but I think I’d be getting ahead of myself

5 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

I

Literally did that

If you're trying to clear yourself here then it's uh

No no I’m just dumb

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

I feel more strongly about Penguin being a Spiked than Alb, who, as I said before, just seemed wishy-washy. Is there something I missed?

My entire case

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Based on my player ID of Penguin, they are not in their e!meta. Also, in general, they're village.

Lol 

35 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

I can see that response coming from a Spiked perspective.

I don’t really. Like say everyone agrees and a draw is made. Then what? I guess they could rationalize that Ostrich wouldn’t allow it as he’s village, but I definitely wouldn’t risk suggesting it as elim 

57 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

And yeah you definitely are not required to post in the thread to be able to submit actions

You should be. That should be a thing. But anyway.

6 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

No. That would've required Tuatara to post, but they died of inactivity filter one turn later.

You can submit actions without posting as far as I know.

Or wait was the manip I’m thinking of just Lion lol

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

Except tuatara was inactive 

Was Vulture not saved by Tuatara’s manip that very exe? I could be badly misremembering what happened but I thought that was right.

1 minute ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

Speaking of which, Alb was online at EoN

That fits imo. They froze at the end earlier, they froze at the end last night. I already said that e!me at EoD probably doesn’t change the kill if it’s already on Vulture so it’s not surprising to me that e!Alb wouldn’t.

1 hour ago, Quartz Zebra said:

Riddle me this! There's twenty minutes left in D3 and Albatross is in a four way tie with Vulture, Heron, and Cham! It's an easy self pres situation! But weirdly, they talk about why they aren't a fan of the Heron wagon, which limits their options for voting later! They don't mention Vulture at all, which could be telling, but idk why you don't leave yourself the option of voting for Heron here! 

Their only follow-up is this (which was technically posted after the cycle closed, lol) and to me looks like they’re setting up a Cham vote over Vulture. At the very least it’s noncommittal and for someone who implies they want to vote they sure don’t seem in a hurry to do so. Sort of adds to my read that Alb is allergic to doing anything that would show they have TMI, eg voting Cham over Vulture or commenting on Ostrich’s fakeclaim, plus e!Alb knows Tuatara can riot in that situation as well as in the four way tie so it makes sense they’re not overly concerned.

Edit: Actually reading that Alb post again I think they did let some TMI slip through when considering worlds. They never mentioned e!Thug!Cham but did mention e!Thug!Vulture.  

Just now, Quartz Zebra said:

I sense you grow tired of my shenanigans! This is fair! :P.

I shot Iguana! 

I feel like the elims would have changed targets if they were on at EOD! 

Shenanigans in general at this point :P.

Figured that out, yeah. That I don’t actually mind. Our paranoia of each other was boiling over.

Maybe. I think e!me freezes there and keeps the kill. Granted, I don’t e!me shoots you in the first place, but w/e

First thing: Lion mentioned that the elims might keep Zebra alive based on his shot list. I think the inverse also can be true here, so we should look at the early kill suggestions/PoEs as hits. This might not be super helpful as the entire player list was suggested at one point or another, but it’s worth checking.

Second thing: Who asked Iguana to claim their actions? Kanga? That’s suspicious.

9 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

Also someone please explain what FUD is because I've never ever heard that before. Figured Under Distress? Flailed Under Distress? Finger Uf Duspicion? Formatted Until Deception?

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Elim tactic I like very much :3

Basically just “yes, but—“ing everything anyone says to keep PoEs and the like as open as possible, like a malicious devil’s advocate maybe?

EDIT: OH no I thought Zebra did try to kill himself lol

Did he not >>

edit: why did that not merge

5 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

Oh and village points to Lion and Cham for their reaction to the EOD declaration from me, but Scorp, why was your reaction to FUD the outcome! 

Because I’m a conventional player who thinks that was a bad idea.

I can explain why it was a bad idea but I don’t think that would help.

I guess you got your answer >>

You guys should really stop putting your lives on the line for gambits but at least Zebra actually survived this time.

Alb

Dude lying about a lurch does not mean you’re evil

58 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

edit: side note but scorpions progression on me has being weird tbh. like between saying i should be the vote/kill and now saying “i kinda v read them anyways” is rlly pingy fmpov

I kinda v read you now because you claimed Lurcher  Or at least that’s a piece of information informing my recent post I didn’t have before. If that’s what you mean.

I think you’d be a useful slot to flip because of how polarizing you’ve been and I can understand a lot of the e cases I’ve seen (like on a base level I agree with Beagle’s and Lion’s suspicion of your reaction to Ostrich and I don’t like you suddenly flipping on me when other people have begun to do the same) but I do like your vibes and the metacase is real so I’m at a solid ???

Like if Zebra wants to clear you out I honestly wouldn’t complain ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

10 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

I dislike how much effort you put into explaining why your reaction (seeing through the claim) was reasonable (and not TMI)! 

And your post was very much playing not to lose! Hitting Croc is just stalling! 

Tell me the two players you think make up the elim team right now! Two people who are paired! If your answer involves a filler person like Croc, it's not compelling! We killed all their filler people, I hope! 

Everyone's looking like a nail now that I have a hammer. 

Fair, but everyone else’s failure to catch on tilted me and I put an absurd amount of thought into Lion’s question so I wanted to give it an absurd answer. A small part of it is my pride wanting to prove how right I was as well, honestly.

I mean… yes, but no? You can’t honestly prefer to have an exlo with you, Swan, and Croc to having an exlo with you, me, and Iguana. I mean maybe you do but I sure don’t :P.

So the only compelling/possible teams are those with active players? It would be nice to know we’ve killed all the filler people but there’s no way to know that. But to answer your question, my best guess is Alb and Croc, the latter because I have a reason to village read other people. If you shoot anywhere in my PoE I’d be satisfied though because I don’t actually have a reason to e read Croc. But shooting outside of my PoE (or any serious PoE) is unnecessary deepwolf hunting at this stage.