Devotary of Spontaneity

The Enlightened are now hosting an AMA. Not all questions will necessarily be answered, but any discussion is welcomed. Participation, and willingness to swear allegiance to Lady Sja-Anat and Lord Odium, may grant you fabulous rewards. The end of your pain, easy access to and from Shadesmar, and perhaps even a guarantee that you won't be killed tonight.

Fura Joe

I voted for Fura near the beginning of the cycle, so the vote tally is 3-2 against Fura.

@Snipexe, you were burned. Did that burn roleblock you the turn it was applied? I see that the surge of Division roleblocks you for a cycle, which I assumed was the two turns you were actually burned, rather than the turn the burn was applied and the two turns you were on fire. If my assumption is correct, since Lumgol wasn't on fire until N3, she could have easily converted Fura D3, which would explain Fura's D4 vote as a convert.

Why would you have thought you were getting lynched last cycle when the votes were four and four for Lumgol and Lopen? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying? Since it seems Fura and Levitaph were making sure Lum wasn't lynched last cycle, I think we'll start the voting on Fura.

We do know that Lopen was the one to have burned Ark, as Lopen claimed as much and presumably wouldn't have lied about it. Fura must have been the one that killed Sart, unless Fura has been lying about being an Ashspren all this time. Hopefully(given the very high likelihood that Fura is evil based on the paired last minute vote with Levitaph), this means Fura doesn't have enough stormlight to kill someone next day turn. With that being said, I feel that Fura is definitely going to be the one to be elim killed tonight. That's obviously their best play. Also, hello Xino! I was worried that the blatant hammer last turn meant that we'd already lost(6-4 potentially reduced to parity after a kill and a suicide conversion in the worst case, and the elim team steamrolls over the inactives), but with two new voters showing up, we have a chance.

Hello extra vote! We haven't had much luck yet in finding elims, but we do have what looks like a hammer from @Furamirionind and @Levitaph at the end of the day. The strange thing is that shifting their votes didn't affect the outcome of the lynch at all, as we had an extra vote piled onto Lopen from vote manipulation. We also know that Rath is the Stormfather and is one of the most likely villagers.

Vote tally: Lumgol(4): Ark, Fura, Levitaph, Lopen Lopen(3/4): Lumgol, Sart/Sart, Rath Xino(1): Dapper Well this is not as many votes as we may have wanted.(Though we now have two new votes and two switched votes since I started this post, so maybe it is enough votes) I do see @Snipexe hanging around, so maybe we'll get an extra vote or two in. We've got Lopen and Sart both saying that they trust Lumgol enough not to lynch her, and now they're voting on different people. Having three votes in a row on Lopen is slightly worrying, as while he certainly could be a convert, the main things that point in that direction are his about-face on Ark and increased trust of Lumgol as compared to earlier cycles. On the other hand, it is true that condensing the vote onto a couple of suspects is an advantage when we're potentially at artificial LyLo, so Sart and Rath's votes make sense while Dapper's doesn't. Rath and Lumgol are also presumably not converts, while the same cannot be said for the voters for Lumgol. Sadly for Lopen, the very text in Sart's signature that would have reminded him of the proper BBC code is invisible on mobile. Luckily, Fura was around to 'help'. My vote now comes down to whether it's more likely that Lumgol started out as Sja-Anat or if Lopen was converted at some point along the way. Of those two, I'm going to have to say that the latter is more likely. Lopen.

Especially since Lum has survived greater lynch tallies than this, I wouldn't necessarily say that the current votes on Lum are a bus even if both she and at least one voter is evil. There would still be 19 hours for them to change their votes, and it's the votes at the end that matter. If you're discarding people as D1 converts based on inactivity though, Snipexe had one post while Ark didn't show up at all. I'm not really seeing the logic behind saying that Elandera was probably killed for her performance in a game that only four living players participated in, and thus one of those four players must be evil. There were other plausible reasons for Elandera's death discussed at the beginning of D2, though I do see that Fura agreed that your proposed motivation was possible.

I will sign up as Hohelin, an Idrian immigrant to Hallandren who is perfectly happy with his one Breath.

The main way I see for Rath to currently be a convert is if he used up all but two lives bonding other people, lost a life to the lynch, and then was converted last night, which would mean nobody was converted during the day. I don't think that's particularly likely, so chances are good that Rath is still a villager. The risks of him being converted later are somewhat higher, though I want to think that Rath encouraging the elims to kill him suggests that he has enough lives left to be immune to conversion. So you've moved Levitaph all the way up on your Sja-Anat suspect list, and are now on the convert hunt. It is probable that a couple of the more active players are converts, though I would not necessarily rule out anyone who's been around to vote and submit actions. I've said that Rath is an unlikely convert, a Cryptic isn't the most valuable role for an elim team, and I've been thinking Sart wasn't evil on D2. That leaves an unfortunate number of players as possibilities, so we'll have to check whose opinions rapidly changed from cycle to cycle. Also, did you make liquid metal C1 and then gather the essences necessary to make a large fire later on, or did you use your early fire and oil to create the large fire you burned Ark with? With Rath confirmed Stormfather, I'm pretty sure that the D1 and D2 swings were not both the result of elims attempting to save a teammate(see my D3 post). Dapper voted on Lum yesterday(oddly, with an emoticon that made Sart change his vote. I'm not sure what's going on there). Of the remaining people who swung the D2 lynch, Levitaph barely showed up and didn't vote, while you voted for Rath before anyone voted for Lum. The problem with an information lynch on a village Lum is that if Lopen's guesses are right about the current number of elims, it would be very easy to end up 6-4 next cycle, which could get very ugly if our habitual non-voters are villagers. I don't know how likely it is for Lum to be village though. While elim!Rath+Lum turned out to be a flawed theory, Lum is still a major Sja-Anat suspect.

Never mind what I said in my last post, Dapper's burn must have worn off naturally. Snipexe's healing is still likely to have been from Progression.

While Rath could have named the spren he bonded to throw in some suspicion of being the Stormfather, this way is much more effective, though it does come at the cost of a lynch. Looks like someone covered the contingencies last turn; lynch one suspect and burn the other. If Lumgol was burned by Division, the Stormfather's ability doesn't heal burns, as the roleblock would necessarily go before any other action. That means that either we have two Cultivationspren/Truthspren out there who didn't bother to do anything last night yet coordinated very well this turn, or someone created and used an item that heals burns. If Lumgol's burns were the result of another large fire, it is possible that the Stormfather's ability can heal burns.

I would assume at most two players started out as evil, Sja-Anat and an initial convert or Sja-Anat alone, which means that if Lumgol is evil there couldn't have been very many fellow eliminators. Since Randuir and Elandera were villagers, we know that the two main D1 swings to Coop and Sart wasn't started by an eliminator. Your vote and mine cemented Coop as a leading lynchee, while CadCom and Dapper hopped aboard the Sart train. I highly doubt that Sja-Anat started out with a Highspren ally with access to Division, so that lynch looks to have had clean origins, which means that the D1 swings are pretty much only an attempt to save a teammate if Rath and Lumgol started out evil together. The D2 swing had Sart suggest that Fifth wasn't a Stonespren, with not totally solid evidence, and four people jumping on that lynch before Fifth or I could confirm that he wasn't a Stonespren(I don't think my confirming that helped particularly much). I don't believe elim!Sart would have tried that if he wasn't sure that Fifth was lying about being a Stonespren, and if he was sure he would have provided more convincing evidence, so I'd lean towards the people who jumped on that train with little provocation of being evil assuming elim!Lum. I know I told Fura about Fifth's lie before Fura placed a vote, so that leaves us with Dapper and Rath as possible suspects. Ultimately, if there was an attempt to save elim!Lumgol from lynches, the highest probability teammate is Rath. My list was not quite as ordered as it appeared; it had mostly trusted in the 9-7 positions, Levitaph thrown in there, the inactives all in a row, and the most suspicious players at 1 and 2. We do have some interesting interactions between Rath and Lum, which appears to be 'Rath votes on Lum for not very sturdy reasons, and Lum supports him for it.' If that is distancing, it's one-way, and would suggest that Rath is the more valuable elim. (I wrote this before I wrote my earlier part, and now it seems that while Rath has voted for Lum, he has also been instrumental in swinging lynches away from Lum.) Lum's latest vote for Lopen seems like a case where she wanted to vote for Sart, then realised that the only people with votes were Lopen and Rath and had to backtrack on her earlier support for Lopen. I'd be willing to vote for either Rath or Lum, but for now, given that Rath could easily switch to Lopen, I feel more comfortable voting for Rath.

I might as well do my zero-research observations/opinions of Fifth's nine Sja-Anat suspects as a baseline. From what I can tell, inclusion on this list was purely a matter of not having a believable roleclaim, and those who didn't roleclaim at all tended to be near the bottom of the list. CadCom has proven his role, the chances of Sja-Anat starting the game with an Inkspren ally are low enough to be discarded here, and Fura's chances of being Sja-Anat are nearly as low. Additional information from PMs will not be present in this preliminary review. 9. Snipexe(Cryptic)- With Ark claiming to have burned Snipexe, Fura's elim-elim theory looks less likely. Snipexe was not under any particular suspicion at the time he claimed(though it was enough for Ark), so claiming Cryptic would be a poor move for Sja-Anat!Snipexe if he couldn't prove it, and a premature one if he could fake it. Likely a real Cryptic. 8. xinoehp512- Has so many non-SE posts that it will be difficult to isolate the relevant ones. Hasn't done too much from what I can remember other than asking people to reveal their starting essences. More content would be appreciated. 7. Ark1002(Stonespren)- Though Stonespren is a difficult role to prove, I do still believe that owning up to being the one to burn Snipexe is a village move. While I didn't like his D2 voting patterns, I'm not sure Sja-Anat would be that pliable. 6. Levitaph- Went strongly after Lumgol days 1 and 2 for what largely appears to be disagreements with Lumgol's tone and overly *helpful* attitude in the beginning of the game. Switched to Fifth at the end of D2, as lying was apparently the greater misdeed. Continued a crusade against Lumgol last night, but hasn't brought the topic up today. Suspicious of role swaps, which is the main reason Levitaph ended up on this list. Continued focus on one player isn't necessarily bad, but taking alternatives into account is beneficial, even if those alternatives are rejected and the ultimate conclusion remains the same. 5. Lopen- I believe Lopen started out as a Truespren, mostly based on my previous statements. 4. Shqueeves- Inactivity caused by wisdom tooth removal. Claimed to be quite determined to bond a Radiant, but there's no indication on whether that was successful, and a 55% chance of failure even with full activity, it would be easy for Sja-Anat to hide the fact that she is incapable of using surges for a few cycles. 3. Rath- Refused to role swap with Fifth, and ended up very low on this list as a result. Had a bit of a shift from supporting Fifth's opinions during the early part of D1, to retracting that support and eventually turning on Fifth during D2. Has been hesitant to commit to any particular vote, though of course that could be said for many players, including myself. I'm not convinced that going through every post for each turn is helpful. 2. Dr. Dapper- Nobody has taken responsibility for being the one to burn Dr. Dapper. CadCom mentioned that he didn't want to burn anyone so far, so there's a decent chance someone else was involved. If he is evil, the elims presumably don't have anyone with Progression. Was interested in sharing the results of item creation. I cannot recall any significant suspicions from Dapper other than countervoting Ark D2. 1. Lumgol- Aside from early statements about mechanics and general strategy, Lumgol has spent most of the game defending herself and being very willing to vote for counter bandwagons for self-preservation. As there are currently no votes for Lumgol, it's time for her to express more opinions about other players. That leaves my new list, with the same ordering scheme, as 9. Snipexe 8. Lopen 7. Ark 6. Levitaph 5. Xinoehp 4. Shqueeves 3. Dapper 2. Lumgol 1. Rath Everything from 1-6 is pretty arbitrary and will likely change upon review and hopefully contributions from the less active members of this list.

I'm not quite sure how Ark would have missed Snipexe claiming Cryptic, but it is possible that was the case. Admitting to being the one to burn Snipexe instead of letting suspicion remain on those with Division seems village though, and claiming Stonespren after what happened to the Fifth makes me inclined to believe Ark is telling the truth about his spren type. While Stonespren was used as a false claim because of how difficult it is to prove, there's a chance Ark will be able to prove his role with Cohesion or Tension. Lopen hasn't had a lot of strong opinions about who is guilty, but he has been defending people who were under suspicion, disagreeing with the lynches on Lumgol, Coop, and Fifth. The attempted vote for Levitaph D2 was likely a bond vote given that Lopen listed him as neutral-village the following turn, but does indicate that Lopen didn't support the bandwagon on Fifth that turn. Lopen supposedly used both his actions C1(unless it's possible to start with three essences) to create liquid metal from fire, oil, and metal. While someone would either need to use transformation or acquire and fuse essences to test this combination, I feel that an eliminator would rather take the confirmed cycle roleblock and stormlight drain of fire+oil than spend extra time and resources experimenting. I get what Sart said about reviewing being overrated. Reading and rereading everyone's posts for the whole game rarely gives me any new insight; instead it just confuses me and overwhelms what evidence is to be found with extraneous data. It's why Rath's procedure of looking at and attempting to analyse every single post one by one doesn't work for me. If I'm not looking for anything in particular, I generally won't find anything to change my pre-existing opinions. With that in mind, I will be trying to change my current opinions of the people Fifth listed as possibly being Sja-Anat.

I'm guessing it's similar to the disguising abilities of Illumination, which alters scan results to appear as a different type of spren. Essences aren't necessary for those with Division; it only costs one stormlight to burn someone and two stormlight can be gained with an action. Permanently roleblocking Snpexe instead of killing him seems wasteful, but a single roleblock is quite cheap.

While I feel it was unwise for Snipexe to claim Cryptic, especially during a night turn a full cycle before he would theoretically be able to reopen PMs, I don't feel like that was justification for a villager to attack him. If Snipexe wasn't a Cryptic, or didn't at least know a Cryptic, his claim would have easily been proven false and opened him up to Division attacks starting N3. I think Fura was the only one who expressed any particular suspicion of Snipexe, and even that was fairly mild. Somewhat worryingly, Snipexe expressed that he would need to refill on Stormlight D2. If he went for the full cycle-full recharge option, he may need a bonded Truthspren or second Cultivationspren to prevent him from dying. I'm not sure whether that's the case for Dr. Dapper. As he's a publicly outed Highspren, I'll courteously ask CadCom if he was the one to burn Snipexe. I won't ask any other spren capable of Division to claim at this time, but I do want them to think about what they may possibly have done. Edit: The surge of Transportation, usable by Inkspren and Lightspren, can be used to redirect a players action. If someone other than Snipexe was targeted by Division, that might be useful information to share.

Fifth did indeed claim Honourspren to me, and the reason there's only six votes for Fifth despite Sart saying he would be doubling his vote is that Fifth used Adhesion to roleblock Sart. We weren't able to get PMs reopened it seems. Apparently Randuir can get them open for D3, and anyone else can spend three turns and four stormlight to get PMs open for one turn. The former is potentially worthwhile, the latter option is a big commitment. Randuir suggests it wan't CadCom at least, as Highspren scanning leaves no time for Division. Committing to lynching someone for their role and potential worth as a convert is always a risky proposition, and shouldn't be the main reason to kill someone in my opinion. The main question I have about Sart is the change from D1 saying that it was useful to reveal roles immediately, to condemning Fifth's role swaps on D2. Is the problem that with role swaps, one person has access to lots of information and can hurt the village more if they're evil, as opposed to public role claims where everyone of both alignments learns the information? Also Fura, I will note that you spelled Furamirionind incorrectly at the top of your post.

Fifth claimed to me, saying that he was a stonespren. However, he didn't realize that half of five stormlight is 2.5 instead of 2, and also said that he took essences Day 1 and Night 1, which is illegal. When confronted with these accusations, he replied that he was not, in fact, a Stonespren. I gather that he continued to claim Stonespren to others, though. @Sart, Fifth claimed Truespren, not necessarily a Truthspren.

I can confirm that Fifth Scholar lied about being a Stonespren. I've held off on voting for him because he claimed a different role that is easier to prove than Stonespren, and wanted to give him a chance to prove that he was telling the truth this time. At this point it's probably best if @Fifth Scholar makes his role more public, like Sart did last cycle.

Dapper mentions looking at players with fewer than three posts, while CadCom suggests that the elims will try to meet the Nahel bonding requirements. So far this cycle, Levitaph has two posts, as does Xino, Sart, and CadCom, and Lopen. Rath and Shqueeves have one post. All seven of them could easily get to three posts combined over the day and night turns. Votes are another matter. There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for any of these lynches, with common sentiment appearing to be that few of the top lynches are supported, but that finding a better lynch is difficult. I'm not enthusiastic about any of these lynches either. Lumgol(3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark Ark(2): Dapper, Lumgol Fifth(1): Sart Levitaph(1): CadCom Two of the votes on Lumgol seem to be holdovers from D1 suspicion, while Ark's appears to be a bond vote. Lumgol's reasoning to vote for Dapper is similar to the sentiments expressed in Rath's and Levitaph's earlier posts. She has claimed a role that's difficult to prove, which I believe eliminates Highspren, Ashspren, Inkspren, Truthspren, and Lightspren. While more content would be appreciated, it is not true that Dapper hasn't provided any analysis. Now, there are no more votes for Dapper. I'm not ready to vote for @Fifth Scholar(in case he wants to come back) this cycle, as role claim results are pending in that direction. Ark often appears evil, and yet hasn't been so far to my knowledge. If he is evil this time, he would most likely be an original elim as opposed to a convert. He now claims to have had roughly equivalent suspicion of Lumgol and Dapper, which is indeed possible. @Levitaph (tagging because only two posts have been made) has consistently been voting for Lumgol. I'm not sure whether this is for the original reason of her appearing *too* helpful with the post about targeting Sja-Anat or the elims, or whether it's for the points other people brought up last cycle. Either way, I suspect Levitaph did not gain a Nahel bond last cycle, and will want to make a third post today or tonight. I don't like postponing my vote again, but I do want to see the opinions of everyone else who said they'd vote before I finalise my vote. I'll put down a temporary vote on Rath in the hopes that @Rathmaskal will respond to the questions I asked him earlier.

There were two votes on Dapper, so the current vote tally is Lumgol(3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark Dapper(1): Lumgol Fifth(1): Sart Ark(1): Dapper I would like to see something related to player analysis from Dapper, and I am slightly confused by Ark's voting pattern this cycle. I don't see why Ark cast any of his three votes so far.

So you've cleared Fura, Randuir, me, CadCom, and Sart of being Sja-Anat based largely on your PM conversations? I agree that Sart is highly unlikely to be Sja-Anat, but the suicide conversion mechanic means that a roleclaim isn't worth too much until it is proven. Even then, a Highspren or Truthspren scan might be necessary to prove a roleclaim. I will note that you get two actions per cycle, though you cannot take the same action on both turns. From what I've seen, Fifth has indeed been rather aggressive in asking for role claims, more so than many previous games. I think part of this might be fear that PMs will permanently close at the end of the cycle, but this behavior isn't usually exhibited unless Fifth can prove his role and alignment, which is more difficult in a conversion game. When did Fifth's vote for Lumgol last cycle start raising red flags for you?

Item creation is what I spent my early actions on, but I'll likely shift away from that as the game moves on. I would like to end up creating at least one useful item by the time I die/the game ends, but that may not be the most useful thing for me to spend actions on. Water alone didn't complete my water+flesh+metal Unawakened homonculus, though I think it helped. My main guesses for additional essences are fire and wind, which I'll probably get around to adding eventually. I don't have much more to say than I did at the end of D1. Vote swing patterns won't be as useful given fewer than usual starting elims, although it is clear that the swing to Sart was not an attempt to save elim!Coop. The odds of Sja-Anat starting with an Inkspren ally are relatively low, enough that I would not vote for Sart on suspicion of him being an original elim. The swing away from Lumgol appears to have been more about people moving votes away from her than moving votes towards Coop, though the two movements did coincide. Surviving a five vote tally appears to have made Lumgol far less afraid of the lynch than she was yesterday. I would like to hear more about why a self-preservation vote was necessary at a vote count of 2-1 27 hours before the cycle ended. Some other concerns are currently being addressed in PMs, which means it would be helpful for a potential second Cryptic to continue PMs, as they'll presumably fall if they aren't renewed this turn.