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Devotary of Spontaneity

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Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It doesn't take a whole lot of activity to submit a kill. Straw made a post during both night cycles for instance, and having time to make a post gives you time to submit an action. I guess you won't be seeing this before the end of the day, but I would like to see some of your methodology and how you eliminated suspects from consideration. Perhaps Kelsier can help out, though 200 words isn't a lot. lt seems that Maill is fairly convinced that Steel is not the Mistborn, likely because a Mistborn!Steel would not have claimed Smoker 1 and proceeded to tell Maill who his smoking targets were, and also because Maill reads Steel's frustration as not having caught Zane, which would be a nonissue for a Mistborn Steel. The roleclaim part is more convincing, especially as Maill and Steel are almost certainly not on the same evil team. That would mean Steel is only evil if he's an elim. One of the bigger pieces of Elandera's case was that it's unlikely that there are two village Smoker 1s, given that there probably isn't too much vote manipulation to protect from. Smoker 1 isn't that great of an elim role either, as only being able to protect two people from vote manipulation is far from guaranteed safety, we've been trying to avoid close lynches that could actually be affected by vote manipulation, and a hammer on Elend wouldn't be timed so as to give vote manipulators time to respond. The other case for elim Steel is that he claims to have supported the CadCom lynch without actually voting for CadCom. At that time, the vote tally was Maill(1): STINK Rae(2): Steel, CadCom Coop(3): Lum, Rath, Straw CadCom(4): Maill, Fura, Coop, HH (In that order) Rath(1): Stick While CadCom was the leading vote at that time, it was far from a dominating lynch. At some point, we should stop getting two village deaths a night, either because the kill roles hit Thug and Lurcher targets, or because the evil teams finally start hitting each other. We're not quite desperate yet, although I suppose you did say you were outlining a worst case scenario.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    What other roles do you think are no longer possessed by villagers among Soother 2, Thug 1, Smoker 2, Seeker 1, Seeker 2, and Rioter 2, given that the Mistborn have access to all those powers except for Rioter 2? How long was your break? If you had enough time to read the thread and choose targets to smoke with the intention of ensuring a CadCom lynch, did you have time to place a vote on CadCom yourself? There shouldn't have been any reason to keep your vote on Rae if you preferred a Cadcom lynch. If Coop and Steel are on the same team and the Soothe on Lum was intended to protect Coop, then either we have a Vin!Steel who foolishly claimed a role he wouldn't be able to consistently prove, or we have an elim team including both a Smoker 1 and a Soother 1. Even though I doubt the elims have much in the way of vote manipulation, to the extent that I would consider a Rioter 1 overpowered on a team of four elims, it's still more likely that Coop and Steel would be elims together than Mistborn. I could also see an elim!Steel, without anything better to do with his day action, smoking people he wasn't on a team with in the hopes that someone would manipulate their vote. On a related note Elandera, would you kindly Riot someone's vote today to prove you're not a Soother without wasting a Tineye 2 or a Seeker 1? I'm assuming from the silence that if Mailliw was Seeked last night, he wasn't observed doing anything suspicious like burning steel, which may be because we have no village Seeker 1s left.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That's not really how it works. It is far more likely that Lum's vote was Soothed to ensure that no role scan could take place rather than to help her target survive the lynch. That applies equally well if either Coop or Maill has a unique evil role. I do agree with CadCom that it's more likely that the Soothing was done by something other than a villager, either to protect Coop/Maill or to frame them. Doing so prevents us from learning about Maill's role and stops Lum from attempting to prove Tineye 2. We know Zane has the Soother 1 ability. If the elims have someone with Soother 1, last day's lynch was even more dangerous than it seemed. There's no real cost for an elim Soother, but if it was Zane who Soothed Lum, then he can't submit a kill tonight while also protecting himself from Seekers, Soothers, and Rioters. In the future, it's probably best to have a Smoker 1 prevent Lum's vote from being manipulated.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Both you and Stink voted for Maill, but the writeup indicates that there was only one vote. @Fifth Scholar, if a Tineye 2's vote was soothed, would they still learn the role of the player they voted for? There weren't any roleless players last time around, so I don't think that's the reason.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We messed up somewhere. I think there would have to be at least three elims on the Rae lynch to kill Elend, but I also don't think we can safely vote for anyone other than Rae.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I've been trying to think of a way that a Tineye 2 Lum and a Rioter 2 CadCom could be elims together, but I'm not really seeing that connection. I have to assume that Lum would have checked with her elim teammates before revealing to the thread that she got a message, realised that at least one of them were told to post an emoji if they were a Mistborn, and then not post an emoji in thread. CadCom probably would have been less willing to go along with lynching Coop if he knew the message was a lie and would put suspicion on Lum. If don't plan to think about what kind of wild circumstance has Lum, CadCom, and Coop on the same elim team. Let's see. Lumgol will ideally vote for CadCom, making the vote count between Rae and CadCom 5-4. I feel Xino is more likely to be evil if he's on the same team as CadCom. Moving votes off Rae onto someone else is a bit risky at this point in the cycle. I would say we need at least six votes on someone to feel safe, as if Rae voters are elims, they can easily swing onto Elend. @Mailliw73, I don't see too many other valid targets anymore.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Hmm. Seeker 1 can't distinguish between the forms of metals, so if they saw you burning steel there would be no way to tell whether you were Zane or a Coinshot 2. We can rule out the metals Vin and/or Zane has access to, so that leaves Zinc as the only option. Rioter 1 seems powerful on an elim team for purposes of lynching Elend, but Rioter 2 isn't out of the question for an elim. If you are a Coinshot 2 and misunderstood the rules, the only thing you have to fear from claiming is that Zane dies early and the Assassin decides to spend their super-kill on you. Rioter 1 can be used to save yourself. Rioter 2 can probably be worked out in PMs. I think we could work it out so we move the lynch onto someone else, but leave Lum voting on CadCom to check out his role more accurately than a seeker could. The main way I see CadCom and Lum being on the same evil team is if they're Zane and Vin respectively, and I don't think that's likely as CadCom would have to fake Coinshot 2 or Rioter for the rest of the game. Rae was flagged as a Mistborn suspect for saying that we should go after the elims first and keep the Mistborn as a lower priority. Araris being a villager has made the 'evil players will go after the other evil team' theory a bit less likely, but it's still a possibility.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The writeup heavily suggests that Bard was killed by a Mistborn, so your hypothesis would require one of Elandera, Rath, Rae, and CadCom to be Vin and have drawn Tineye 2. The initial vote wouldn't have been because of Bard's role, but the later kill would in your scenario. With one message sent theoretically sent to Lum saying that Coop was an elim, and a second one sent to Coop saying that Lum was an elim, it does seem that the mistwhispers can't be trusted. There is absolutely no reason for someone who cared about killing elims to send those two messages, and I'm still struggling to see why they would send even one such message. I see them either both lying, and thus both evil together and doing a mutual bus for some strange reason. The alternative is they're telling the truth, and it's the mistwhisperer who is lying. Joe/Kelsier/whoever is doing the writeups, could you confirm whether or not you are the mistwhisperer? Perhaps have the writeup person and the mistwhisperer provide the same quote, in addition to any other information they wish to convery? CadCom, unless you are a secret role of some sort(Seer?), there are no roles that can be detected by Seeker 1 and prove that you're a villager. Hazekiller isn't an allomantic action, and Librarian can only use one metal. At most, you would be able to prove that you aren't a Mistborn. So let's see. If Coop is evil, it's probably not because the mistwhisperer said so. I don't see how CadCom hopes to prove his village alignment, but it might be useful to stick a Tineye 2 on him. I think that would be more valuable than checking Coop's role, but I'm not sure, and also having extra votes on CadCom would likely be fatal and possibly expose Tineyes. Perhaps not a good idea at this stage then. Rae is a pretty good Mistborn candidate, and HH provides a scenario in which it would make sense for Bard to be killed. I don't think that's particularly likely, as a Vin!Rae would only have a 1/6 chance of drawing Tineye 2 last cycle. I would like to hear back from CadCom before making my final vote, but it will likely be for either Rae or CadCom.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Did your mistwhisper give any indication as to why Kelsier would claim you were an elim to, so far as I know, a single person? I'm struggling to see reasons why this would be. My main suspicions, though some seem very unlikely, are 1. Kelsier can only give personalised messages to certain people(likely those who are spiked, in this scenario), and everyone else received identical messages about claiming Mistborn 2. Kelsier lied to Lum to sew dissent and cause mislynches 3. Contrary to the writeup, Kelsier doesn't particularly care whether the elims are killed or not. 4. There's a Ruin role in the game who edited out the part about Coop being evil 5. Lum lied about her message, potentially receiving the one about claiming Mistborn. On that note, @Adavantos, did you receive a message asking you to post an emoji if you were a Mistborn? Going from 'Zane likely didn't vote on Bard' to voting for Rae as a Zane candidate partially on the basis her vote for Bard is an interesting leap. It seems like there were a number of people who suspected Bard though, including Kelsier, so I wouldn't say that Zane isn't among that group.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If Kelsier knows whether people are evil, this game could be very easy. I can't see why Kelsier would know that unless Coop is another special role like Ruin, and if that was the case it would have been far more helpful for Kelsier to put that in the writeup instead of in a PM. @Coop772 is on the player list, but hasn't said anything yet. If you are capable of speech, would you please prove it? Lum and Steel claimed messages other than the one you and Ark received, so presumably Kelsier knows if they're lying or not and should be able to tell us in the next day's writeup. That might not work though if Kelsier wants to protect Vin. All three players use emojis with a fair amount of frequency, and they're definitely not all Mistborn.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I received a message from the mist, so it does seem that Kelsier can communicate both in the writeup and in role PMs. Having a player in the dead doc capable of communicating with the living doesn't break the game, it worked out in LG41, although it does mean that there won't be any spoilers revealed in the dead doc by Fifth or dead evil players. Any information the dead receive should come back to us, assuming Kelsier permits it to go through. It seems he's willing to help us hunt down Zane and the elims at least.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That makes more sense than what it looked like you were saying, which was that the Mistborn would help bring about a village victory.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It's 6-4 now, which put's the lynch out of reach of Soother 1, but is still in range of Rioter 1 to make it a tie. Araris is still one of my suspicions, and I'm concerned about the counterwagon on Bard, so I'll put the seventh vote on Araris.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    One Tineye scan shared with one other person doesn't prove very much. I would say that three successful role scans would be enough to prove that Lum is not Vin, who has access to the Tineye 2 power with a 1/6 chance. Fifth won't tell us what result would come back from scanning a secret role, so there is the possibility that scanning Joe won't produce a useful result. While claiming Tineye as Vin is very risky when she only had two votes compared to Randuir's three, it's still worth the time to thoroughly check. Araris has always been very open about being willing to lynch people D1. The main thing I'm worried about is that he voted for Lum after she suggested targeting the Mistborn, and implied that the Mistborn aren't really serial killers. He has been backing off the Mistborn support lately, and he was never as blatant as Rae in suggesting that the Mistborn were a lower priority. We also have HH claiming out of nowhere that the Mistborn are a 'determining factor' to a village victory, which is a very strange thing to say. @Hemalurgic Headshot, can you explain what you mean by that?
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    PM safety tends to be about not revealing your role, or Breath count in QF37's case. Exchanging trusts and suspicions through PMs is something different, and probably worthwhile with two different evil factions. My personal hypothesis is that the people trying to swing lynch discussion too hard towards either the elims or the Mistborn are more likely to be evil. This phenomenon occurred in the LG44 Elantris game where Gyorn!Steel and Cultist!Araris tried very hard to focus on the other faction. MR 34, with a hostile neutral had a somewhat similar occurrence, with the elims being most vehemently opposed to the Thief. From a readthrough of this day, it appears the most obvious examples of overly focusing on one side are Lumgol and especially Steel saying we should focus on killing the Mistborn first, with Araris and Rae suggesting that the elims are the greater priority. The other main example of focus in Randuir's plan of relying on PMs to play a larger than usual role in hunting down elims, and looking at the people who supported or opposed that plan. Stick and Fura seem the most receptive to that general idea, while while CadCom, Maill, and Lumgol are the most firmly opposed. I'll have to examine this later, but I note that Lumgol is on the pro-elim side with regards to the first point and the pro-Mistborn side for the second, while Araris and Fura have teamed up to vote for her. Secondly, Rae voted for Araris, though that vote was conditional and has since been removed. For the record, my personal beliefs are that we don't have enough information to target either team, though the Mistborn are more easily outed by scanning roles like Tineye 2 and the Seekers(and as such it's probably best for Smokers to refrain from using their abilities) and the elims will likely have more obvious connections. I also don't think we're at the point were we should refrain from posting all our suspicions in thread, though that may come if multiple elims die and both Mistborn are still alive or possibly if a Mistborn dies while all the elims are still alive. Throughout the game, we would hopefully focus on whichever evil team is doing better, though we do of course have to kill the Mistborn first. Until/unless Joe responds, I'm going to guess that Joe is Preservation; able to listen but not speak. I don't know why there would be a role that prohibited someone from posting though, not even the Hoed mechanic from LG44 or the poison mechanic from LG47 were that harsh.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The only way the Hazekiller catches Zane is if the power granted is Coinshot 2. A complete failure to grant a role(I'm assuming this is what happens if a player with both halves is targeted) suggests the target is a Mistborn, Sean Conrad, or the Librarian, which is a decent chance that the recipient is evil. All of the other Mistborn roles are something a villager could have. If Zane gets targeted by a Seeker 1, it will be difficult for him to claim anything other than a passive role.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yafrion, callsign Yaw(n), is ready to shoot down the Krell. If shields block the first attack no matter how much damage is done, it seems like the elim kill will fail most of the time unless there are enough Krell in each wave that pilots have a high likelihood of being attacked at least once. I'm also worried about the elims not being able to use ships and what appear to be the confirmed safe roles of squad leader, ace, wingman, and possibly mechanic. All the safe roles can prove themselves, and depending on the amount of Krell in each wave, it seems easy to assign pilots to roleblock the Krell ships and anyone who fails to do so is evil. Assigning ships to targets would also make it difficult for a gunner to attack a pilot undetected. I guess this means there will be more Krell than pilots, but not too many more.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Luckily, as a Kandra, Varuun was able to survive Zane's hail of steel. Somewhat painful perhaps, but far from life-threatening. The abuse rained down upon him as punishment for failing his mission was far more agonising. Every bone in his previous body had been shattered, and he was shut in a safe for a week in his useless shell. Now though, Varuun had been given a second chance. This time, maintaining Elend's reign was not necessarily the highest priority. Instead, Varuun merely had to preserve Luthadel and keep its buildings intact in preparation for his master's eventual takeover.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Ark, and probably others, are hoping to gain Breath by lynching people. Since most people who have claimed said between 1-3 Breaths, lynching people isn't a particularly efficient method of gaining Breath, but it is the main way for villagers to increase their amount of Breath to levels sufficient for item creation. Hoping to gain Breath shouldn't be the main reason for voting, but it is a nice side benefit. The incentive to bandwagon will interact strangely with the fact that many players won't be around for rollover, which will likely mean that those who can vote later in the cycle will receive the most Breath from lynches, or that we'll actually decide on a lynch well before the end of cycle.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Since I'm assuming Awakened items can be used more than once, and it's kind of doubtful that we'll get a lot of Breath from the lynch lottery, getting the ropes(and potentially the Strawmen if Breath passing happens) out early seems like a good plan. The first Heightening Breath scan could be used to detect abnormally high amounts of Breath, but I don't know if that will be particularly useful as an alignment scan as we have some natural differences in Breath levels and the Shadows can hide their stolen Breath in items.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    While roleclaiming in a conversion game is an objectively terrible idea, and I would not have roleclaimed if I wasn't evil, Lum would have had a far greater chance of being lynched if Fifth and Cadcom had survived long enough to reveal the flaws of Lum's roleclaim. Preventing Sja-Anat from getting all her conversions off might have been worth letting the elims learn everyone's role. We were so focused on Dapper and Joe's unknown roles, that we completely forgot that Snipexe had vote manipulation, and probably should have been attacked instead of Dapper D4. That could have turned very ugly if that had been used and Rath had roleblocked my vote manipulation D5. We attacked you two nights in a row, and you didn't have enough stormlight to protect yourself from both. Now that this game is over, I can plug QF37, for which signups close in three hours.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We go to all that effort to save the unenlightened spren, and they all abandon us before we can take them to meet Sja-Anat. Ah well, at least we rescued at least one of every Radiant type except Bondsmith and possibly Edgedancer from the Stormfather's tyranny. I would like to read the spec doc though.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Ideally, we'll be killing villagers who can't defend themselves. Sadly, most of the remaining villagers have some way to protect themselves, so we're not guaranteed success, but fortunately your roleblock doesn't stop the elim kill and many remaining forms of protection are personal use only. I can say that we're not going to kill you, as you presumably have more than one life left.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We were pretty sure you were the Stormfather by the time we lynched you. We tried to avoid voting for you, but we had to save Lum and you were the most viable option. We did not expect you to be able to prove your role so quickly, but the free stormlight helped to some extent. The village would have to kill me somehow and prevent the kills from going through, and then lynch Fura tomorrow, all of which only happens if the village is active and the Enlightened are not.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Lumgol started with more than two lives, so Fura and I are not the only elims. I'm pretty sure you'd need to have items that kill or grant extra votes to have any chance of preventing us from dumping all our votes on one of the few remaining villagers next turn and being guaranteed a successful lynch, which would be a boring 48 hours.
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