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Devotary of Spontaneity

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  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There probably are duplicate abilities, but it's also likely that some abilities were left out of the game. That also doesn't mean there aren't roleless players, although there also wouldn't be an action for the Hazekiller to block in that case. @StrikerEZ, do Hazekillers lose one of their three charges if the person they targeted doesn't take an action? I'm seeing the Kandra as similar to the Deepness from MR 33 or the Cthaeh from MR29, in that they want to maintain the balance of villagers to elims so they can be one of the last three players alive. As such if elims die early, the Kandra will likely switch to killing people presumed to be villagers. While the reverse is true, with the Kandra wanting to kill elims if we start out with several mislynches, the fact that the Kandra likely doesn't know who the elims are means they could still end up killing villagers. Not that the Thug claims and then everyone switches off, more that giving the lynchee time to see the lynch coming also gives them time to persuade everyone that they are not the best candidate for a lynch.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The village wincon is very specifically to kill all of the rebels, and doesn't say we need to kill the Kandra in order to win. It will probably help, especially if elims start to die, but unlike last game we can afford to kill the rebels first. The idea was since last minute lynches have the chance to kill Mistborn before they can use pewter to defend themselves, we should avoid last minute lynches to prevent that from happening. Unfortunately, letting the target see the lynch coming also gives Thugs the chance to protect themselves with pewter, and since the alignment of a Thug is not so easily determined, surviving the lynch is no longer indicative of being a villager. Aman's plan would solve this particular problem, as a village Mistborn can be distinguished from an elim Thug. Hopefully the extra time given by allowing lynchees ample time to see their end coming would give village Thugs an opportunity to avoid death by moving the lynch somewhere else.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Covert assassinations were no way to express dissatisfaction with one's leaders. If these rebels weren't happy with the way the government was being run, it was their responsibility to openly challenge Elendel's leaders face to face. Running around with bombs could only mean the rebels did not command the loyalty of Elendel's population and were too afraid to associate themselves with their beliefs. Such cowardice could not be excused. With only 17 players and up to four kills flying around(elim kill, Coinshot kill, Mistborn!Coinshot kill, potential Kandra kill), this game may not last particularly long. I would not be surprised if some of those kills were not present in the game. The Mistborn was presumably added for a reason, as there shouldn't really be Mistborn save for the Lord Mistborn and Ironeyes, so I'd say it's more likely that Coinshots were excluded than Mistborn. Since the Kandra can pretty much only win if they whittle the game down to one police, one rebel, and themselves, and then get both the last police and the last rebel killed in the same turn without dying, the Kandra would need a night kill to have any real hope of winning. While Sindale disapproves of Mistborn, she is forced to admit that such a being is unlikely to stand with those using guns and bombs to overthrow the government. Last hour lynches may not give the Mistborn, or Thugs who are less alignment indicative, the opportunity to use pewter to survive their lynch.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Sindale, a young Koloss-blooded woman, has been sent on a mission to determine the identity and intent of the new Mistborn rumoured to be living in Elendel. Bad enough that Harmony could seize control of the entire spiked population at will, an unknown quantity such as this Mistborn would have to be assessed and potentially removed if they were determined to be a threat to the Koloss. Though Sindale herself has no spikes, and is thus not capable of being directly controlled with emotional allomancy, she wears her aluminium foil hat at all times.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I can sign up for this round, if more participants are necessary.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Paranoid theories are great! For instance, did you know that if Zane dies before Vin, Elend becomes an Unstable Mistborn that we'll have to kill? What happened to going full blown elim? As near as I can figure, the only way you could win with three elims still alive is if an elim kill is redirected to sender via a Thug 1 or a Rioter 2. Otherwise, it doesn't matter if you can kill two elims this cycle, as you and Maill will be the next two lynches. I suppose I did promise to kill Maill if Stick was lynched today, so there may be a bit too much animosity between us. Tied lynches are exciting, especially tied lynches where both parties have a chance to die. Alv is apparently showing blatant favouritism towards the SKs, so I think I'll lose this one. Stick probably won't even need to use Soother 2 to stay alive.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    In LG41, there were 13 villagers, 3 elims, and 1 Mistborn, and the Mistborn won. With the number of Mistborn doubling in this game, we would logically double the size of the elim team, for a total of six elims. We could have hammered on Elend almost every day, but we didn't want to win like that. Supposedly, the Mistborn can tell you the elim team just as well as I could. If they decide to do so, I will confirm their accusation.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    This is what happens when you don't do enough post editing I guess. I also forgot the update option 1 with the offer to kill Maill tonight. @Mailliw73, @_Stick_, at this point the only fair thing to do is for you to announce the elim team, and for the village to decide who they trust. I can throw in my vote for Stick at this point. I'll be around to answer questions periodically throughout the day.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We've got what seems to be four options, @Adavantos, @Elandera 1. I am one of two remaining elims, and the Mistborn know who my partner is. Obviously, this means the Mistborn win tonight if you lynch me. However, it also means that Stick or Maill could just tell you who the last elim is and you win after lynching Stick, then me, then Maill, then my partner. 2. I am one of three remaining elims, and the Mistborn know who my two partners are. Here, if the Mistborn tell you who those two are, you win regardless of what order you lynch Stick and I. 3. I am one of two remaining elims, but the Mistborn have no idea who the other is and are only saying so in an attempt to prevent Stick from being lynched. You lynch me, the Mistborn kill a villager, then you lynch Stick and Maill and are slightly worse off in your hunt for the final two elims. 4. I am one of three remaining elims, and the Mistborn have no idea who my two partners are. You lynch me, the Mistborn kill a villager, you lynch Stick and Maill, and you end up hunting down the final two elims with one fewer villager than if you'd lynched Stick first. Additionally, if Stick is lynched first, we will kill Maill so you don't have to waste a lynch on him. We can't risk attacking a Mistborn if I get lynched because even if the Mistborn have no idea who the elims are, they could get lucky with Thug 1.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I guess Steel was right about Stick being Zane back during D3. Perhaps Steel could have assassinated Stick had he survived that lynch. Not including Kelsier, we've got 13 living players. That makes things a little worse than Fura's projections, decreasing the village population by one compared to their three remaining elim model. We should still have some protection roles out there that will reduce fatalities. I haven't seen a claim from a Lurcher 2 or a Coinshot 2, but there may be villagers out there with those roles. I doubt HH, Rath, and Straw are all Thug 2s at any rate. Not even by the Hazekiller's influence, as that would mean the game began with three Thug 1s other than Vin, with is equally improbable. Unless Vin was the one to kill Zane last night by accidental rebound of Thug 1, Maill could still have drawn that metal this cycle.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    This situation was rapidly getting out of hand. The Mistborn that had tried to kill him last time was still at large, and the Koloss army was getting entirely too close. Just yesterday, Varuun had almost been torn to shreds by an angry mob, and if they'd found his spikes, there would be no guarantee he'd ever get them back. As the night ended and the Mists receded, Varuun went back to check on his only material possessions, save for his spikes, his skeleton, and his garments. True, the remainder of his possessions were also bones, and a bag sewn out of the clothes that had been shredded by Zane's last attack, but it felt like luxury to own things that he didn't have to carry with him. There were downsides to not carrying all of his possessions with him, as Varuun found when he opened up his bag. When he'd gone out for the night, he had left the quartzite skull of his first True Body atop the cranial fragments of Varuun's last body. Now, it was gone, the bone shards underneath it barely disturbed. Where could his skull have gone? Quartzite wasn't particularly valuable, and anyway, what sort of thief would find a bag filled with bones dating back centuries, and only take one piece? Well he would just have to find the culprit and get his skull back. Perhaps one of those pesky Mistborn had stolen it. If he ever finished this Contract, he would commission an entire quarzite skeleton, something with a bit more strength than the fragile human bones he currently wore, and then never leave the Homeland again Snipexe, I'm a Lurcher 1. I finally get a role that prevents me from being killed at night, and then I don't get attacked four nights in a row. Well, technically I have had roles that allowed me to survive night kills before, but I was an elim in those games.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Obviously, the solution was to claim Mistborn N1. If you had, Joe would have been able to contact you in a Mistwhisper and tell you who the elims were.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If Elandera moves a vote from me to Rath, then the vote is tied 3-3, but Zane can still ensure that I die by using Soother 1. @Lumgol, @Furamirionind, do you have opinions on which way this lynch should go?
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    What a fascinating vote turnout, including a vote from Snipexe who hasn't cast a single vote this game. ,@Mailliw73, I also said that I'm pretty sure all or almost all of the people Steel listed as potential Mistborn weren't elims. I'm starting to question Steel's decision to exclude @Snipexe from the list. Why have you chosen now to express a lynch worthy opinion? Rath Edit: Before you kill me, can someone please give me a reason why I'm dying? Mailliw's three reasons are 1. NAI, 2. False, and 3. Not something I have any control over. Devotary(4/5): Maill, Elandera, Snip, HH, some rando Rath(2): Stick, Devotary Stick(1): Fura HH(1): Ark @Lumgol, since I doubt there are any Smoker 1s out there, make sure to cast your vote at the very end of the cycle to give the Mistborn as little time as possible to figure out if it's worthwhile to Soothe you. Right now, I'm seeing either Rath+Snip or Stick+Maill as the Mistborn team, and we can't keep letting them get away. Good game Mistborn, I think my death will secure you the game. I don't know if the person Stick scanned as using Iron N2 was me, but if it was, I'm having doubts about her being Zane. If Zane soothed Lum D2, then Zane could not have used Seeker 1 on me and submitted the kill that night. Edit: @Elandera, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Snipexe you can swing the lynch over to Rath without risking a last minute vote on Elend.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Unless someone else needs a partner, I'm going to be targeting 1C.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I always vote late in the cycle, regardless of alignment. I prefer to gather information during the cycle and then only act on my suspicions at the end. Not a great strategy for this particular game, I admit. I've sent you my not-suspicions in PM, but for the first two cycles I was focused on those who seemed overly enthusiastic about going after either the Mistborn or the elims. That didn't work out at the time, and for the past couple of cycles we've had more concrete evidence. If Rath is an elim, then Bard couldn't have been killed for his role, as there would be no more candidates for a Vin!Tineye. I'm kind of confused by this. You believe that Stick is more likely to be a Mistborn than an elim, which makes sense. Are you then saying that you would rather vote for a Mistborn than an elim, or the other way around? Stick is a potential Mistborn because she was targeted by a Smoker 2, likely Zane. Rath is a potential Mistborn because he, as Vin, would have had a 1/6 chance to learn Bard's role and kill him for it. Elandera, when you voted for Bard back during cycle 1, did you think he was an elim? Any Seeker 2s out there who may have scanned CadCom, can you confirm whether or not he was targeted with Bronze? If we could confirm Stick's N3 action, that would clear her of being Zane as Zane couldn't have used Seeker 1, Smoker 2, and Coinshot 1 in the same night. If there are any Smoker 1s left that aren't Vin, make sure you protect Lum today. No sense in giving Zane the chance to block her scan.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'm pretty sure Gunners can still request and be assigned a ship, they just can't use that ship, so everyone claiming their ship doesn't immediately out all of the Gunners. If a ship gets damaged though, I think that would be proof that the player assigned to that ship is not a Gunner. @Steeldancer, what happens if someone targets a ship that isn't being flown, such as if the Traitor attacks a ship assigned to a Gunner or a Gunner tries to shoot down a ship that wasn't assigned to anyone? Also, can turrets be roleblocked by Light-Lances? We can't just have Poco 1&2 fire at Krell 1A, 3&4 and Krell 1B, etc., as there are more ships than pilots and some of those ships won't actually be usable, as they'll be occupied by Gunners. We'll need a bit more coordination than that, anywhere from PMing someone and asking if they'd be willing to go after a particular ship to everyone claiming their ship or ship type and being assigned a particular target in pairs.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I don't like the sound of "limited" IMP missiles for the Largos. It may be better to save them for more threatening situations, such as when we're dealing with a Lifebuster in addition to a large swarm of Krell. For Pocos, it's easier(and safer) to just have a pair of Pocos fire destructors at a Krell rather than have one on destructors and the other on IMP. For this wave, I think we have each of the five pairs of Pocos fire destructors at a specific Krell ship, say 1A-1E. Meanwhile, three Fresas and Largos team up, the Fresas firing Light-Lances while the Largos fire destructors at 1-F-1H. Then, the Gunners take care of Krell 1I and 1J. If there are four Gunners, we can get away with 8 Pocos, 3 Fresas, and 3 Largos, and though that is one more ship than pilot in that scenario, any Ace pilots might be able to compensate. I'd say Snipers should not use their Destructors at this point. The downside to everyone claiming their ship is that it allows the Gunners to chose who they kill, not just which ship they shoot down. The benefit is that it makes things more difficult for the Gunners to hide the elim kill, along with the general benefits of more efficient killing of Krell. If a Krell that was supposed to go down doesn't, it means one member of the pair submitted the kill or the Traitor is starting off the game by betraying their own win condition. This first cycle is when it would make the most sense for each person to claim what ship they're in. Did you confirm that the Fresas can roleblock the Gunners? From "Light-Lance: All Defense Ships are equipped with a light-lance. Using this will roleblock the ship from taking any action that night.", I assumed that Light-Lances could only be used to roleblock Krell and other defense ships.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There is almost no chance that a village Smoker 2, if one still exists, would target Stick last night give that she was a Mistborn candidate and a possibility for Seeking. The elims having a smoker 1 and a smoker 2 is unlikely, so the options are 1.Stick is a Mistborn, 2. Zane decided to leave himself open to Seekers, Soothers, and Rioters on the off chance that he could frame Stick. 3. Stick is a village Smoker 2 who actively prevented herself from proving her role to Seekers by self-targeting. Not lynching based on role distribution is for cases where you don't know how the roles are distributed. In this game, we have perfect knowledge of the Mistborn's abilities, and one of them is Smoker 2. If village!Stick found Senn, would she not also attempt to lynch him, or at least tell someone like you who is essentially guaranteed village? A villager can be open about their role in that case, but Zane cannot afford to try and prove their role because a Tineye 2 scan instantly catches them. Knowing whether Stick is a Seeker isn't relevant, and almost condemning, as Zane is a Seeker 1 and Vin has access to Seeker 2. Zane!Stick doesn't get two kills if Conrad is dead, but it does make it far easier for Zane to kill the remaining elims. At the very least, this warrants @Lumgol voting on Stick to definitively determine whether or not Stick is a Mistborn. It seems such a thing was close to happening last day cycle, and then weird code things happened with Fura and Mailliw. Did either of them encourage/discourage you from voting on Stick? Additionally, since you know Fura's role, does it makes sense for Fura to know whether Stick was Smoked?
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Ark(1): Fura CadCom(1): Sart Stick(1): Elandera Elandera(1): DA With a two vote minimum required for a successful lynch, these numbers would result in a no-lynch. We're not anywhere close to having the base destroyed, so the main reason to avoid lynching today is to ensure that there's no traitor tonight. It is true that having more people makes it less likely that the elim kill will be successful, but the odds don't shift that much. I think the closest thing we have is if a ship gets damaged and the squad leader saw who was flying that ship, it's proof that that player isn't a gunner.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So if a Poco and a Gunner fire at a Lifebuster, will the Poco drop the shields doing 5 damage, then the Gunner destroys the ship, or the Gunner drops the shields doing 5 damage, then the Poco inflicts a mere 2 damage before the Lifebuster kills everyone?
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    CadCom's original push was that he would be able to prove his role at night(false, as there would be no way for him to ensure that his target was attacked) and that a Seeker 1 scan would clear him(false, as Zane has Thug 2 and Vin has access to Thug 1), which means only a Tineye scan would have cleared him. Somewhere along the line, he went from lying about his role even when he was up for the lynch to telling three different people. Are you clearing HH of being an elim based on the fact that he survived the Mistborn attack? While Thug 2 and Coinshot 2 are possibilities for how someone could survive an attack, two other ways are Lurcher 1 and 2, both possessed by Senn. All we know about Stick's claimed role is that it is capable of targeting people and receiving some sort of result. I don't see how that clears her of being Zane, as Coinshot 1, Soother 2, and Seeker 1 all fit that description. Hopefully, we'll learn more about this situation when Fura comes back, though that supposedly won't be for another six hours or so according to Fura's post in MR 35.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It takes a minimum of two gunners to take out the Lifebuster, though we will want to be careful since a traitor will interfere. Still, I don't think Light-Lances can roleblock turrets, so two gunners firing at the Lifebuster should guarantee its destruction until/unless M-Bot shows up. Gunners sadly go before defense ships, so it won't work to have a defense ship and a gunner take out the Lifebuster. Fresa Light-Lance+Gunner or IMP+Gunner might work though, unless the traitor roleblocks the defense ship. @Steeldancer, what is the exact firing order for destructors? Gunner->M-Bot>Fresa->Poco->Largo>Krell->Gunner at defense ship?
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So Steel was an evil Smoker 1, and also the Assassin, which means Zane can't be insta-killed and any Coinshot 2s can't be killed at night. With Elandera confirmed Rioter 1, Steel's list of Mistborn suspects is Stick, Straw, Snip, and SMaill. If these were all genuine suspicions, then none of these would be elims. Shortly afterwards, this list was pared down to Stick and Snip, and then just Stick, so I'd say Stick and Maill have the lowest chances of being elims out of all of those. Perhaps Joe will pass on continued Zane suspect lists. I don't know how Steel narrowed down the list so quickly, and it's entirely possible the Mistborn were cut from the list due to time constraints, but it's probably worth looking into those Mistborn suspects. Another notable events from yesterday was the early four vote lynch on Rath that disintegrated after Stick and Maill switched over to Steel. Steel started the lynch on the basis that other people suspected Rath. I'm guessing Stick, Maill, and HH were some of the one suspecting Rath given that they voted for him, but that may not be true. Rath was apparently not a high priority Mistborn target for Steel, which would mean Steel had a pretty good idea as to Rath's alignment. Finally, did Steel actually want a CadCom lynch on D2? Steel supposedly smoked two of CadCom's voters to keep the lynch intact, but otherwise didn't affect the outcome of the lynch that was 4-3 between CadCom and Coop. D3, CadCom built and then backed off on a case for Coop and Steel being the Mistborn, while Coop was the second vote on Steel and then bailed at the end when it was clear Steel would be lynched. I think this indicates that Steel was fine with a CadCom lynch.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    A dangerous game for Vin!Steel to play, but potentially successful between apathy and well-timed assistance from Zane. I don't particularly think Steel would have claimed to be the one to smoke Coop if he didn't, so that's unlikely. I do think he's probably a smoker 1, but as he never fully addressed why he's a village smoker, I can send Steel off the same way Maill departed, with an overwhelming lynch. Elandera being a rioter should be testable today, when she moves someone's vote. @Elandera, be sure to submit your Riot.
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