Devotary of Spontaneity

Objective one was to lynch a misting to progress the game, and Aman was the only one who volunteered to be that sacrifice. Objective two was to get a tied lynch so we would accomplish something other than killing a misting. That didn't end up happening because I forgot to look up Straw's policy on uncoloured votes and wasn't willing to risk having a lynch where only Lumgol or Fifth died. I wouldn't say it's impossible for Inquisitor!Fifth to have potentially(though not actually) tied the lynch ~15 minutes before rollover counting on public sentiment that tied lynches are bad to save him, but that would be a risky gambit for an Inquisitor. The main thing I'm looking at for potentially being the Inquisitor is overly self-protective, but there hasn't been too much of that. We had shane and BR object to votes to the point of specifically asking the voter to retract, and Lum's vote that may have been partially in self-defense, but I'm not ready to vote for that at this point. Other than that, the Inquisitor likely would have approved of Aman's lynch and the prospect of a tie between Aman and another villager, but I'm not sure how much they would have expressed that view. @Fifth Scholar, I had a blue word in my post N1 because I was testing out bbc code to make sure it still worked for me.

The point of crafting a tie between Aman and someone else was to get something out of the lynch other than killing a misting for the Inquisitor to use for converting. With Aman being far too willing to die for the Inquisitor, a secondary lynch anywhere else would at least target an actual Inquisitor suspect, even if the odds of success were low. The Inquisitor has one action, and has the ability to kill or convert. Lum's vote for Aman is the least indicative of the three, as the votes were 3-2-2 between Aman, Fifth, and Lum with a decent chance that she would die if Aman retracted his vote. It looks like her vote for Aman over Fifth was for the purpose of getting a misting killed for the Inquisitor. The theory that BR purposely tried not to vote is almost certainly false, as even for an Inquisitor such a ploy would only make ties more challenging to force/avoid.

Aman

(2/3) Amanuensis: Lumgol, BR?, Stink (3) Fifth Scholar: Doc12, Sart, Amanuensis, Fifth (3) Lumgol: Young Bard, Haelbarde, Araris (1) RayOfSunshine: Randuir, Is Straw the type to take illegitimate votes? Whether or not we end up in a tie or not depends a lot on whether BR's vote actually counts. My instinct for this lynch is to end up with Aman having one more vote than anyone else and make him choose whether or not to end in a tie, but if BR's vote doesn't count then Aman might actually survive. At this point, Aman soothing a vote off himself means he could survive regardless of whether there's three or four votes on him. If Aman isn't going to Soothe himself, then my vote could either ensure Aman dies or ensure Aman lives. Aaaah! Aman. I think we want at least a chance of death.

Straw also confirms conversions only happen at night, it seems. That will help us out later. (4/5) Amanuensis: Fifth Scholar, StrikerEZ, Lumgol, Araris Valerian, BR? (3) Fifth Scholar: Doc12, Sart, Amanuensis, (2) Lumgol: Young Bard, Haelbarde, (1) RayOfSunshine: Randuir, Once BR votes, it will be 5-3 votes against Aman. At this point, it's less about whether Aman dies then if he takes someone with him. It seems we have some opposition to a double lynch, which only makes sense if there's a belief that the Inquisitor is nowhere in the list of candidates/we won't be able to find the Inquisitor. So far as I can tell, we're lynching Aman more because he's a claimed misting and killing him progresses the game than because we think he's the Inquisitor guaranteeing that he dies early. A double-lynch kills someone actually suspected of being the Inquisitor. Lynching the Inquisitor D1 is not too early if they get a convert who has to choose how much to bus them before any Seekers unveil the Inquisitor. Inquisitor!Lum's vote would likely be a way of not dying to the lynch, rather than a challenge. At the time, all it would have taken was for Aman to remove his vote and all of a sudden she's up for the lynch. Voting for Fifth would have been more effective if the sole goal was survival. At this point, I'm just going to post something and start a new one.

That would be where you said you didn't want to kill the Inquisitor before they used up all their conversions. At the very least, we want to force the Inquisitor to seriously consider wasting multiple lives out of fear that withholding a conversion means it won't go off if they're suddenly lynched or attacked. We can still lose even if only two conversions happen as LG51 proved, and LG54 indicated that by the time the converter makes a full team, the game can be almost lost. It's entirely possible that lynching the Inquisitor today wouldn't give them an opportunity to convert. All it would take is a Lurcher to protect Aman, and suddenly the Inquisitor has to make a blind guess and happen to hit a misting with the night kill. If a misting isn't night-killed, the Inquisitor doesn't have anyone to convert with and the game ends C2 after a lynch and a potentially necessary N2 coinshot kill. If the Inquisitor does manage to convert someone, we'll spend the rest of the game trying to kill what is essentially a serial killer with no ties to anyone else. Once a misting dies, any and all attempts to kill the Inquisitor are fair game. If they choose not to use the dead misting and end up dying without a convert that's their problem. If they die with one convert who was around before the Inquisitor lost a life, we'll at least have something to go on.

The main benefit of the Inquisitor converting early is having someone to talk with in the doc, but other than that it's the ability to convert and kill in the same cycle. Are you certain that conversion is a night-only action? I haven't found any examples of Inquisitors converting during the day with the corpse of a night kill, but I don't know if that was a choice or a rule. If conversions can happen during the day, an Inquisitor would be perfectly happy to abstain from using a Misting who dies today in favour of one who dies tonight, as that would allow them to get two kills in the first two cycles instead of one. If you want to prove Soother, you would have to announce who your target is every day. Village smokers, soothers, and rioters would make sure they didn't interfere, but the same cannot be said for elims with those roles. Claiming your target at the last second once one of those roles is used as conversion fuel would help with that, but could get you tangled up with village vote manipulators targeting the same person. I don't think we can afford to wait around until the Inquisitor uses up all their conversions. Specifically, this is because an Inquisitor with multiple lives is disinclined to use them all up for one more conversion. This is helped by the fact that a dead misting is needed for a conversion, so an Inquisitor who gets lynched might not have the opportunity to use up their conversion. With limited Coinshot abilities, going for Seeking lynch survivors instead of killing gives an Inquisitor another chance to get off a conversion, again only if day conversions are possible. The percentage of mistings will likely increase throughout the game, giving the elims a better chance of a night kill hitting one.

Glacior had always been the most put-together member of his family. Unlike some people who had tried to acquire a fortune all at once and so utterly failed the cause, he'd lived in Elendel for twenty years, syphoning funds into the hands of loyalists back home. Bink's arrest would temporarily make it more difficult for Glacior to accept bribes or skim money off the top of budgets, but it also provided an opportunity he'd been waiting for all these years. It was time to remind these Senators that even for a noble, the penalty for high treason is death.

Nevene tried to run. There was no use waiting around for the Inquisitor to show up. That's how bystanders ended up just as dead as the Inquisitor's targets. She tried the front door only to find it conveniently locked. Well, that would never do. Nothing to be gained by picking the lock; whoever had shut them in would undoubtedly be looking for those trying to escape that way. Which meant she needed to find a place to hide and pretend she'd never tried to leave, while searching for a more discreet exit. Surely the nobles wouldn't notice one more skaa in their midst. The way conversions work in this game, there's no reason other than fear of iron protection for an Inquisitor not to kill a misting who will be able to consistently prove their role. Converting someone with a role is somewhat of an advantage in that it acts as a kill on that role, but there's less incentive for the Inquisitor to recruit players with roles than in other conversion games. I suppose a Seeker can confirm that anyone with a role isn't the Inquisitor, supposing the claimant isn't immediately slaughtered, but that's probably not the best use of a Seeker's action as it's wasted if their target does end up dying. The rules for this game seem to indicate that the Inquisitor can use up their last Spike to convert someone even though it kills them, which would make three spikes more reasonable than four. Unless Straw changed how UberSteel works for and the Inquisitor has access to the kill even without that Spike, the Inquisitor's array is likely limited to exactly Pewter, Copper, Steel. That seems like a good reason to remove the requirement for the Inquisitor to use UberSteel though.

I'll sign up as Nevene, who has merely heard rumours of Allomancy but knows that Inquisitors are to be avoided at all costs.

It's a shame that we have come to this. I know I've been the one to say that we couldn't rule out the inactives, but I'd hoped we wouldn't have to make a blind stab. Ventyl. It's probably not even worth looking out for a counter-hammer at this stage.

I'm not sure where you're getting the assumptions for this. As a villager, my reasoning for voting on Stick can be taken at face value. If I was evil, I would vote for Stick to save Alvron regardless of his role and alignment. Either I prolong the life of my engineer to get one more sabotage in, or I frame someone to ensure the real engineer doesn't get lynched today. Believing I'm evil is one thing, but eliminating the scenario where I sacrifice my reputation to save a teammate seems odd. Shane, Xino, Ventyl, and Alvron have had opportunities to claim navigator, true. And if one of them was a village navigator, they really should have claimed by now. The most likely possibility other than Lum is Mark, who was active enough C1 to have submitted an action and has since disappeared. Lum's elephant bird is also extinct, so you may have had a fair shot at getting a Haast's Eagle. I kind of doubt the GMs would have allowed the elims to submit actions on behalf of an inactive engineer this whole game without informing anyone this was a possibility. Lynches go before sabotages, so it's still possible to win if there are three elims, or if we have a trapper or an engineer still alive. Since the game hasn't ended, presumably at least one of those three conditions are true.

It was presumably for the same reason you did, the fact that Stick felt the need to break the tie. It turns out that Stick had a very good reason to avoid the possibility of the lynch. If you and Alvron were evil together, you would have thought that Alvron was going to die. Even if you didn't end up voting for Alvron, there had to have been a better way for you to ensure that Alvron wasn't lynched than to convince me to vote for him, even if you did tell Stick to keep her vote on me. What was the reason for that anyway? I can only conclude that neither of us should be allowed to make snap decisions at the end of the cycle. Alvron can't have been a worse target, even if he ends up being innocent after all. Do we have any actual proof that Lum is the navigator? All I remember is Lum claiming to have used her role C1 and gone for an Aviar C2, and Aman decided that she must be the navigator and clearly couldn't be the engineer. We don't have a lot of other suspects; I think the list is Xino(claims roleless), Ventyl, Mark, and Shane. Technically Alvron, but I really think he would have claimed. I'd like to hear @Lumgol confirm navigator, and which Aviar she went for C2.

Alvron Stick

(2) Alvron: MrakeDarshall, Devotary of Spontaneity, (2) _Stick_: StrikerEZ, Amanuensis, (2) Devotary of Spontaneity: TheMightyLopen, _Stick_, (1) Burnt Spaghetti: shanerockes,

The only way I see that happening is if you or Drake switch your votes to Stick, which would give us a three way tie. Edit: Also Stick is here, and would probably object.

Lopen has less of an alibi now, but Alvron never had one to begin with. He's also the main viable candidate, which certainly helps. I think lynch Alvron, hospitalise Lopen makes sense for a greater chance of catching the elim engineer. I doubt the trapper is around at this point though.

There were 10 starting airship parts, and nine of them were intact. The elims can sabotage one part as a faction action, and one part as an engineer action. Not having an engineer cripples the sabotage win condition. A single village engineer who submits actions every cycle can ensure that the elims can't destroy the ship until cycle eight even if the elims are able to double sabotage every cycle, which is infeasible as there's no way the elim engineer remains uncaught for that long if they submit a sabotage action every cycle. Two village engineers can keep the ship afloat for longer still. Alvron's claim to have explored the sky crane is odd, as Stick announced C1 that there weren't any secret rules or roles. Alvron obviously knew the naming conventions for non-Aviar, so he could have just claimed to have tried for an Aviar and failed. So Lopen or Ventyl could have been the ones to sabotage the Aviary. I suppose that does make more sense than having two players be able to prove they didn't commit the sabotage.

The elims kind of had to have an engineer, otherwise the sabotage win condition is infeasible, requiring nine cycles of work even if there were no village engineers around to fix anything. Three or four elims depends on what other kinds of roles the elims get, e.g. a doctor probably means only three. I'm pretty sure the saboteur doesn't get to choose whether they receive a Sak, Kokerlii, or Kukupa. The three of you had indeed claimed Aviar. I'm pretty sure Ventyl can't have been the one to sabotage the Aviary, as he would have received a full Aviar rather than half of one. Unless it turns out that Stick was the one to sabotage the Aviary, it's likely that whoever did ended up lying and claiming a regular bird or just never claimed at all. Drake, I did specifically request a Sak.

Last cycle, we had fifteen players who could be evil. Out of those, you, Xino, Ventyl, Mark, and Shane, or 1/3 of total players were minimally active enough that it's plausible they didn't put in actions. Are you suggesting a three member elim team, or a four member team that just got really unlucky? We know that more than three people can get Aviar when the Aviary is sabotaged. If you assume that you got Sak, Lopen/Ventyl got Kukupa, and Stick got Kokerlii, why does that make it implausible for me to have gotten Sak? Or, more accurately because I specifically requested Sak, why is it implausible that you received Sak by chance? I believe it's that normally, a player request Kukupa and gets both twins. They can then create a PM with whoever they want. When the Aviary was sabotaged, one twin went to Lopen and the other went to Ventyl, forcing them to have a PM together.

Assuming that Lopen is the elim engineer: Lopen could only have sabotaged the Aviary if he's elim partners with Ventyl, as Lopen wouldn't be able to get away with claiming one of a set of Kukupa twins otherwise. It would be easier for Lopen to avoid this problem by sabotaging the lab instead. I can be pretty sure that either Lopen or a teammate received Sak C1, as we haven't had any other claims and someone needed to have requested Sak for me not to have gotten one C1. C2, Lopen claims to have sent an anonymous message through the mess hall. This claim is made two hours after stating that he didn't have an alibi and that taking credit for an anonymous message or Aviar possession wasn't proof of innocence. Which is certainly an interesting strategy regardless of role and alignment. Anything else important? Suggested that village engineers wouldn't sabotage the ship, which isn't necessarily wrong. I think a villager is more likely than an elim to consider reasons for village sabotage, though we can be pretty sure that nobody who brought up the possibility of village sabotage is actually a village engineer or else we would have fixed something by now. Poked Lum, and kept the vote to support a tie. Cared more about Aman's fate than Xino's, which seemed to be a relatively common sentiment. Supported Drake's attempt to narrow down the saboteurs with the caveat that it doesn't make sense to remove the minimal actives wholesale, advice that Lopen seems to have abandoned this cycle. I'm not entirely sure what criteria Lopen is using for inactive though, as last cycle he listed a bunch of people who were too inactive to vote for and then cast a vote for someone who'd only posted twice. This cycle, Mark was included in the list of people active enough to vote for while Shane, Lum, and Ventyl were not despite posting at least as many times. So we've come close to the end of the cycle and my options are 'no', 'probably not', 'maybe', and 'unviable' x4. I assume from Stick's silence that she plans to keep her vote on me, which means my vote probably doesn't matter anyway. I would and probably still do suggest hospitalising other candidates for elim engineer, except many of them(Xino, Shane, Mark, Ventyl) are also prime candidates for village engineer. So that's unfortunate. I suppose Ventyl won't be doing anything after this cycle until he's replaced, but we have no knowledge of when that will be. We can always hope Aman is an engineer. And now Aman is here. Surely it would only take one teammate to create an alibi for Lopen? A teammate sends in an anonymous message and Lopen takes credit for it? Hospitalisation seems better than dismissal, as Lopen is probably only evil as the engineer, otherwise he would have let the actual engineer have an alibi. It's unclear whether a Trapper is actually willing and able to attack Lopen. Edit: I've realised that you were probably referring to the fact that an elim other than the engineer sabotaged the other airship part, so we have two unaccountable elim actions as a baseline, and sending an anonymous message would be the third. We definitely have more than three players who can't prove their C2 actions though.

Devotary(3): Aman, Lopen, Stick Burnt(1): Shane Stick(1): Striker Lopen(1): Drake Is my lynch actually fatal? Worst case-nobody ever bothers to fix anything: C3: 5 parts remaining. I die, double sabotage C4: 3 parts remaining. Lynch elim engineer, double sabotage C5: 1 part remaining. Lynch elim, single sabotage, game over Best case- One repair action in on the brig, newly active village engineer: C3: 5 parts remaining. I die, elim hospitalised, double sabotage, brig repaired, one tick of bridge repair C4: 4 parts remaining. Hospitalise elim, Roleblock+lynch elim engineer -> single sabotage, bridge repaired, one tick on lab C5: Elims can't sabotage faster than two village engineers can fix Mid case- One repair action in on the bridge, one active village engineer: C3: 5 parts remaining. I die, double sabotage, bridge repaired C4: 4 parts remaining. Lynch elim engineer, double sabotage, one tick of brig repair C5: 2 parts remaining. Lynch elim, single sabotage, brig repaired C6: 2 parts remaining. Lynch elim, wins if three elims total. Else single sabotage, one tick of bridge repair C7: 1 part remaining. Lynch or roleblock elim wins. Else, single sabotage, bridge repaired C8: 1 part remaining. Have to roleblock elim, otherwise the ship is destroyed If we don't have any active engineers, things look bleak. A single engineer can hold out for quite a while, but we'd have to be accurate with lynches, attacks, and roleblocks. With two active engineers we have a pretty good chance if we can get rid of the elim engineer next cycle. I'm not going to vote for Burnt. Drake seems more convinced than I am that Stick's brush with the lynch means she's not the elim engineer. Let's see. Three and a three quarter hours before rollover, Stick votes for a secondary target to create a 2-1-1-1 lynch. I vote for Burnt three and a quarter hours before rollover, deciding it was too late for a third vote on Stick. ~30 minutes later, BR makes a three way tie by voting for Drake. An hour before rollover, Drake eliminates the threat on Stick by switching to Alvron. There are never more than two votes on Stick, but a 50-50 tie resulting from Stick casting a survival vote aren't great odds. Stick loses nothing by voting for Drake initially and then switching later if absolutely necessary. This would require her to stick around and see how the lynch developed. She also has to rely on a teammate, one of Drake, Burnt, BR, or I, to manipulate the lynch. I doubt it's Drake, as he almost died to the lynch. BR never saw Drake remove his vote, and she probably could have gotten away with voting for Burnt instead of Drake, which would have been far safer for Stick. Burnt is the most likely of the three by default, but I don't really like that pairing. Burnt didn't vote until after the danger to Stick was gone, at a point when Stick wasn't around to change her vote. I would expect more defensiveness in the form of a vote for Drake well before Drake's vote shift. I guess that means less likely to vote for Stick. I suppose I'll @_Stick_ while I look at Lopen more closely.

This is solely to test my theory that all the roleless birds live/nest on islands. Shoebills apparently make nests on patches of dry land in the middles of swamps and marshes, which could technically be considered an island. Edit: Claiming is almost certainly not useful anymore, but I'd kind of like to figure out the pattern for sure.

Xino isn't playing quite the same as he did in LG56 or LG57, but I wouldn't say he's much more likely to be a village engineer than an elim one. There didn't seem to be anyone defending Xino when he had two votes against him C1, which is a point in his favour. Not my first choice for inactive elim engineer. Reading Ventyl's post, I'm certainly conviced that Ventyl doesn't believe he can dedicate the necessary time to this game. Faction loyalty doesn't mean villager though. It will take at least three cycle for the elims to win a sabotage victory, so it's more middle game in that regard. It is true that attacking the doctor doesn't help the elims win a sabotage victory, so it's less useful to protect the doctor if that's their plan. Striker claimed to have gotten the Kukupa twins, and to have used them to create a PM with BR. I don't believe anyone else has claimed Aviar from C1. Claiming Aviar by itself doesn't guarantee that one isn't the elim engineer, as it is true that an elim teammate who actually received the bird can cover for the claimer. That's presumably not true in your case, as it would have been easy for a biologist to test your Kokerlii claim. Burnt's post was ~45 minutes after the writeup, and since there aren't a whole lot of people around at that time, the odds that an elim teammate requested an Aviar, failed to get one, and then informed Burnt are fairly low. Combined with Burnt's willingness to leave her life up to chance suggests she is telling the truth here. A Striker-Aman team isn't particularly likely given that Striker almost got Aman lynched C1. The elims would have to be ruthlessly committed to bussing a teammate C1 on the assumption that Aman wouldn't come back, or else they weren't paying any attention at all to how close Aman came to dying. The main reasoning for Burnt-Alvron is that Burnt voted for Ax rather than Alvron to create the three way tie last cycle. Aman suggested lynching Alvron first to test this, which I believe is because Alvron has a higher chance of being the elim engineer of the two. Burnt probably wouldn't have voted for Alvron regardless of his role if they were both evil though. If nobody else claims navigator, I'd be willing to accept that @Lumgol has that role, especially if she actually confirms it. Shane's claim of receiving a useless Aviar would have been more useful with an actual name, but it's kind of too late for roleless bird claims to be alignment indicative. Stick as the elim engineer likely requires an elim teammate to be around closer to rollover, but two votes isn't especially threatening. If I had been around several hours before my vote on Burnt I probably would have voted for Stick to force any teammates to make an actual defence. Alvron's only alibi is his claim to have received a Guam Kingfisher when the Aviary was sabotaged. It fits the naming scheme, which I had thought was real world birds that live/nest on islands to fit with the fact that Aviar live on the islands of the Pantheon. Drake's shoebill doesn't fit this pattern though, according to the map on the shoebill wikipedia page. It's technically possible that an elim teammate could have gotten Sak C1 and then sent an anonymous message C2 to cover for engineer!Lopen. It's probably better to look at those without alibis first though. I'm willing to remove Xino and Lum from the list of people I would vote for this cycle, pending confirmation on Lum's role. Shane, Mark, and Ventyl remain viable inactive suspects. Burnt, Stick, Drake, and Lopen have better alibis than just a claim. Lopen's is the strongest. Drake's claim of getting a Kokerlii C1 is strong, though the fact that his claimed C2 bird doesn't fit my pattern is a bit unfortunate(maybe the Shoebill does live on islands, and I'm just not looking hard enough). Burnt and Drake not being the engineer based on vote tallies and risked death is stronger than similar evidence for Stick. Alvron hasn't cast any votes despite the numerous opportunities for ties. Supposedly, this is because he's been spending most of his time on LG57. Lack of direct involvement and no semi-confirmable actions does mean there isn't any particular reason why he can't be the elim engineer. Despite everything I've said about not ignoring the inactive candidates, I will end up voting for someone other than me who has a chance of being lynched, which right now are Stick and Alvron. I might as well ask @shanerockes, @Ventyl, and @Mark IV what birds they received this cycle.

Xino submitted orders in the other game, so there's no reason he couldn't have done so in this game. If your goal is to find a generic elim who could be directing the elim engineer, then it doesn't make sense to use criteria that rules out people as elim engineers for evidence in finding the generic elim. You would know better than I if activity is alignment indicative for Mark, as I only remember him being relatively active as a villager in MR32 and less active except for submitting actions as a faction member in AG5. Lum has claimed a role that was used C1(not doctor, internal affairs, or trapper), but isn't so valuable that time can't be taken to grab an Aviar(not village engineer, likely not biologist). I don't think that's quite as conclusive as you're suggesting. Navigator is quite possible for a village Lum, but elim engineer lying about which bird she received isn't impossible. Requesting a pinch hitter despite being nominally active is exactly what elim!Snipexe did in LG56, and was a big reason why I voted for him. Generally, I think an elim would care more about making sure their action isn't lost than a villager would.