Devotary of Spontaneity

I wouldn't go that far. If we get verifiable claims from two postmen and Urbosa, we have best case two vanillas, Link, and the elim left. Our chances of getting it right are higher than the base 1/4 chance since we have other evidence than roles, but if we're wrong then the elim can narrow down Link's identity to two people and has a better than 50% chance of winning. I guess Link could also claim, but that would just bring the elim pool down to three people instead of four while guaranteeing a loss if we miss today or if there are two elims left.

Out of seven players, we've got one Link, two Postmen, presumably one Knight, hopefully one Urbosa, and then at least two vanillas. Narrowing down the options by roleclaiming means we have to win today, or else Link is extremely vulnerable tonight.

Urbosa cannot roleblock the exe, so attic is definitely Daruk. I still don't think that role means their evil, but we'll see where the kills go tonight.

Given the likelihood of an elim knight, them also having Daruk giving them a total of eight lives and eight votes with only one vanilla in a 26 player game with a sudden death lose condition for the village is definitely too much.

Okay, quill and I guess Attic.

The only roles you could conceivably prove as a villager are postman and Urbosa, and then only if there are living players with PMs not mentioned in thread/living players who were notified of being roleblocked. You would probably be caught if you false-claimed one of those.

Since we still haven't heard from an Urbosa to my knowledge, I'm putting more stock in an inactive elim team as opposed to a roleblocked elim N5. Purple still did post, so if she didn't put in the kill she must have had an expectation that somebody else would, and since Kayla hadn't been on all night it's unlikely that would be the trust. So someone who either posted in thread N5 or typed in the doc. For the first and only verifiable list, we have quill, Whiffle, Alv, and Steel. Unverifiable are Ash, attic, Jondesu. Yeet definitely wasn't available. According to Ash, attic, Jondesu, and himself were on the Shard N5. Any elim who posted is still more likely to have been in the doc than one who didn't. I think I would go for quillinthestars out of the four people from the first list. I'd like to at least hear about the people he definitely might be leaning elim on, @quillinthestars. Thinking kayla was specifically a vanilla is another interesting statement.

I will sign up as Gatemaker, who is not a Returned and of course believes that Returned should accept their second death at the end of the week instead of stealing parts of other people's souls to survive, but did take the opportunity to destroy all records of her previous life upon being accepted into the Idrian intelligence program and was thus given a Returned title.

If Link had gotten role information about purple or Kayla from Archer or Dannex, he would know that they were vanilla and Revali, but I don't think that information alone would have been enough to kill them. Elims can die to the inactivity filter even if their death would greatly impact the game. Whether or not someone dies to the filter is more about the availability of pinch hitters.

Possibly it was just Drake trying to set up his D4 lie about being Link, but Drake's confidence that he wouldn't be killed N3 plus a vigilante's general responsibility of killing people who would be exed next turn anyway makes me think the elims have a knight much more than that Link chose to hit TJ. Also because this would give Link a perfect record of targeting elims. 7 elims by itself isn't unreasonable, but with Rhoam giving them the equivalent of eight village votes it seems like to much, and a seven member team with eight lives would definitely be too much. Archer claimed to me at least that he didn't have any role scans. I'm also not sure Link would have killed purple and Kayla for being vanilla and Revali respectively, or would be more likely to have gone for Revali first since that was a common suspicion for an elim role I believe.

I don't really see the point of exing Az. It relies too much on purple failing to submit a kill order despite no kill being submitted as of ~8 hours before rollover, which was when her last post N5 was. Even Szeth seems like a better option, although making a v/v PM is still useful if the postman's alignment or that of the participants is later revealed, or one member of that PM suddenly starts knowing secret information. I feel like e!Ash would have remembered that Urbosa's roleblock is out there if that's what happened, although otherwise I'm not feeling as good about him. I don't suppose anyone knows whether Ash was around during the night, but I'll assume he was. Steel is another possibility, but a lot of that is from his vote for Stick D2 and at that time Drake only had one vote so it's not really protecting him. I think I'll vote for Steeldancer at this point, but might change.

There would have to be serious miscommunication for the elims to use a knight redirect on the same person they were trying to kill. Link getting redirected to purple is possible, but still wouldn't explain why the elim kill is missing.

It only takes one elim to submit a kill, so purple could have done so even if her teammate(s) were inactive. An elim getting roleblocked seems more likely, although I haven't heard of anyone being roleblocked so far this game.

Tani doesn't seem like a great option but it looks like it's going to happen and she isn't Link apparently.

I did have a PM with Archer that was created by someone other than Drake, but apparently he didn't have any scans. I do have his reads list, which was Tani and Purple as leaning elim, Az and Jondesu as village, and Alvron not evil with Tani.

Well every elim who looks like they're going to be exed will claim Link from here on out and there's not much we can do about it. I really think an elim knight should have protected Illwei N1, or at least that the calculation of 'it's not worth it to randomly redirect the attack and potentially hit another elim just to save someone who'll die the next turn anyway' should apply equally to elim Drake. However, it would make sense for TJ!Zelda having scanned Drake as evil N2 to try to exe him D3 since it seems like Dannex wasn't in PM contact with 'Zelda' until N3. If Drake is Link we'll lose N4 anyway as was pointed out, so it's worth exing him. Also, I doubt Link, having no proof as to my alignment, would have claimed Zelda to me, even knowing I would be unlikely to believe him.

So does anybody know whether TJ was in fact the person who told Dannex that Drake was evil? We can't necessarily trust that anymore but it might be nice to get a claim. Last night, a postman put me in a PM with Drake, which he used to claim Zelda. I was pretty sure Drake was lying since he clearly wasn't the person in contact with Dannex. Drake did not mention being Link, but did seem confident that Link wouldn't kill him.

If Dannex has people he trusts enough to share a prospective Zelda's identity with, it would be a bad idea for an elim to claim Zelda. If he doesn't, the elims could probably get away with having an elim postman put an elim in contact with Dannex, claim Zelda with a false scan result, and then killing Dannex before he can reveal the name of the person who claimed Zelda. We wouldn't learn anything from that except that there's a decent chance of an elim postman.

If Drake dies and is village, it seems more likely, if riskier to test, that it's the Zelda claimant who's evil. Since Zelda and Link are still alive and we shouldn't be anywhere near the point where the elims can outvote us, it's worth Link killing Drake. It would be nice to make sure that should Dannex die tonight, someone else knows the identity of the Zelda claimant in case the scan is false.

That's a lot of votes on TUO, enough that I would guess most of the remaining elims piled on. If TUO is an elim, I think it's more likely for those teammates to have jumped on the train when it started looking hopeless than to have tried to vote for Drake. Village TUO increases the odds that a very early TUO voter is an elim, and that either of the two Drake voters is evil or Drake is.

You can request a pinch hitter if you no longer wish to play this game. It looks like Xino is available. There's no reason to assume Dannex is in contact with Zelda. That would require a postman to have guessed who Zelda is and been able to put her in a PM with Dannex, since neither of them can make PMs on their own.

I don't really have anything on Stick, so I'm just going to go with my earlier suspicion of Drake.

I am still alive. I'd expect an elim to be among the people who mentioned Illwei being village for her Zelda claim, though probably not the first one. TUO more likely village for immediately voting them I think, although that vote didn't actually count so maybe not. Steel as well. Looks like only Matrim and somewhat Drake marked Illwei as village, so somewhat elim on Drake for this. Don't think e!Matrim would be so quick to promote a teammate.

Eleven pages and I'm not sure what's actually happened. Most of the rule based discussion was in my first post, except that tireless frogs apparently do allow you to take two of the same action, which makes Beedle even less likely to be an elim. Person wise, I think Archer's not likely to be evil given a village Beedle. I remember Pyro as being more aggressive/post heavy as an elim. I feel Kas is evil on principle for fake statistical reasons, as opposed to any actual realities.

Zelda's worth more than an elim since she's one of two people who the elims need to kill compared to the 5-6 people the village needs to kill. Claiming is for if they're guaranteed to be exed otherwise in the hopes of at least using up Kohga's kill. The Knight redirect would not save them from that, and presumably the hearty durian doesn't either. One thing that could happen is a village postman opening a PM with Zelda, which would permit her to scan them and then have the opportunity to get PMs opened between Zelda and anyone else scanned as village. That should be helpful even though the likelihood of an elim postman means that a PM with someone claiming to be Zelda can't be automatically trusted. There's no real reason most of those named roles couldn't be elims. Beedle probably is village since it would take a while for him to be caught even if no villagers ever got any items. Rhoam and Revali are more likely on five person elim teams, the others are plausible with 5 or 6. That would make the game over really quickly if Beedle's an elim, maybe even restart the game quickly, although chances are he's village. Link and Zelda being guaranteed to get any items they request would be helpful, especially if Tireless Frogs let them alignment scan/kill twice in a single night, which I wouldn't think they would but I forgot to ask about. The Yiga being here presented a problem. Or perhaps an opportunity. The Hylians would be more likely to accept her despite an admittedly suspicious lack of background information if they successfully stopped a contingent of Yiga assassins from killing the Princess. Until that happened, those same lack of personal details were making the Hylians distrustful, enough that a Sheikeh had come to interview her personally in what appeared to be a training room. Impa was now number two on their ‘do not cross’ list, rating below Link only because she seemed inclined to give her a chance. After quickly realising that obfuscating would not be helpful, Kele found that they didn’t know plausible answers to simple questions like ‘where are you from’ and ‘what have you been doing all your life’? Her reply that they were an orphan raised by non-Sheikah parents in a small northern town seemed to amuse her interviewer. Lips curled up, Impa asked for a demonstration of her archery abilities. Kele drew an arrow and briefly contemplated turning the bow on Impa, but asides from the fact that this would ensure their death at the hands of the castle guards, Impa’s continued smirk convinced her that she would be the one to kill them if she pursued that course of action. Hands still shaking a little at the prospect of having to fight her, their first shot barely hit the target at a range of less than 25 meters. Embarrassed, she correctly her aim and hit the outside of the bullseye on the second shot. Encouraged by a slight nod, Kele drew back their bow for a third shot too sharply and the string snapped. She winced, less in pain than in the anticipation of what was about to happen to them. To her surprise, Impa merely laughed and pulled a dark metallic bow off the wall and handed it to her. Their eyes widened as they experimentally pulled back on an arrow and found that this new weapon had a much higher draw weight than even her old duplex bow, even if it was only designed to fire one arrow at a time. On a hunch, they aimed at a target 40 meters away, uncomfortably far for the precision assassination work she’d engaged in while wielding a duplex bow. The arrow slammed into the inner ring without significantly slowing. Excitedly, they pulled another arrow and sent it into the exact center of the bullseye. The duplex bow never could have made such a shot, or at least it would have taken hundreds of tries. Grinning openly now, an unfamiliar expression on week old features she was starting to think of as hers, Kele put a third arrow into the boundary between the bullseye and the inner circle. They turned to see Impa nodding in approval. Then she pulled out her own bow and put three arrows into the bullseye within the span of a few seconds, forming a tight triangle around Kele’s perfect shot. They almost dropped her bow in shock, staring at the target and then at Impa, who made another amused smile before saying “If the Princess approves of you, we can see about getting you some extra practice with that bow, little ‘Sheikeh’. My lady could use all the trained archers she can find these days.” Kele followed her out the door still clutching their precious new bow to her chest, too wrapped up in fantasies of shooting people more accurately from further away to pay full attention to the warning note in Impa’s voice.