Devotary of Spontaneity

Holding up Conq and Xino as villagers helps elim Sart when they flip village. I assume you killed Xino because you didn't want an Aes Sedai around who might side against you today. Mat and Luck can't weave and whatever you thought my role was you assumed it would be easier to exe me than Xino/were already worried about hitting my Shepard extra life. Why not? Your vote doesn't count so even before my vote it was 3 votes for Illwei 2 for Conq, so you'd be able to kill her while having two elims shown voting on Conq.

So Araris isn't solo, and his teammate is definitely Sart unless a weaveblocked player can break free and use other weaves on the same turn @The Unknown Novel. Either way, Araris is the biggest threat, so we should kill him first.

There was no practical reason for Araris to use Compulsion on any of the three days and plenty of other day weaves he could have been using instead.

I can try to weaveblock Araris but the only one who could potentially link with me is Sart, and he's better off doing his own Shield if he's a villager with 3+ Spirit. If Araris and Sart are both elim Aes Sedai then things don't look good vote-wise. Solo Araris is beatable.

Yes, I'm the Shepard so Araris. I saved my weave up to N3 to use Harden Air on Araris and then it didn't work but I can still do something today.

Blademaster specifically because they (were supposed to) have an extra life, which would balance out a smaller team. Myrddraal was just a much worse Blademaster until the rules were changed.

More saying that people can only take one physical action if they use weaves, so you couldn't send a PM, kill someone, and use weaves.

Xino's voted every cycle, so he can't be cleared of being a Forsaken for that. Sart is only an elim with Luck or Forsaken Xino. PMing one person and killing a villager would at least stop Forsaken!Araris from using weaves, which would make it easier to target him with trace or harden air. Roleblocks stop PMs from going through, and there'd be no way to tell whether you submitted PMs or the kill, except that nobody would die. Sart and Xino are the only claimed roleblockers and even if they're village they don't have guaranteed success.

So I'll still vote for Conquestor but that means he isn't solo. I'd say more likely Araris than Xino of plausible teammates.

Because you were already my best guess for the Forsaken and having a Warder doesn't clear you of that. I haven't mentioned Mat because he went to greater lengths to kill Vorros than I'd expect for an elim. He's also definitely not the Forsaken. Vote analysis isn't super helpful for finding the Forsaken because their vote doesn't count. For Vorros's vote all we can say is that he preferred Illwei's death to yours. I don't think his D2 vote for Xino means much but I also don't have Xino as a current elim suspect. He claimed willingness to info-kill you but was overall reading you as village.

Why would I not check when it's so easy? Plus I get to find out whether Sart claims any physical actions, which Aes Sedai are less likely to do since it lowers weave success rates. I think you're the best chance of hitting an elim but it's not 100%. Sart was claiming that anyone with a Warder can't be the Forsaken, and thus the two of you can't be Forsaken, which is false because any Aes Sedai can have a Warder and the Forsaken doesn't have the asterisk marking it as not an Aes Sedai.

Both the Forsaken and the Amyrlin Seat are Aes Sedai, so there's no reason they can't have Warders.

So to confirm you didn't take any physical actions last night and can't back up Conq's claim to have roleblocked you? I can claim if Conq flips green but see no reason to do so otherwise. Sart/Conq likely has Sart as the Forsaken given his D1 vote but I can see solo Forsaken Conq.

Seal doesn't block healing because weaves aren't non-lethal actions, but it should stop a Warder. @Sart, did you have any physical actions roleblocked? Xino's supporting you. Guessing that you didn't take any physical actions is risky if he doesn't know for sure by scanning you, being elims together, using Raise Fog on you, etc. Why do you think I do things at random?

Asking for the contact's identity would only help if Mat was evil and lying about a contact, which I suppose was possible but now doesn't seem to be the case since Mat and Shining are both up for execution if Vorros is village. Less reason to hide since Aes Sedai have an 80% chance of being able to Trace. Hard to see this as a ploy since the elims don't win until it's impossible for the village to win, so counting on 4-3 with vote manipulation when plenty of villagers could have vote manipulation, kills, and protects is far too risky to expose two members. Vorros.

@The Unknown Novel how do Warders work? Do they choose who they protect first? Do they have to submit protect actions every night? Does protection use up one of their physical action slots?

If Conq and I were elims and the Forsaken vote manipped to save him, me voting for Illwei would be unnecessary. My physical action(s) also failed. I think Warding is a physical action? Or at least I'd assume it would be something that can be tracked, blocked, etc. I don't actually know if it takes up a slot. "Every other turn, you protect them. On off turns, you protect yourself." does seem like it's a Aes Sedai-Warder-Aes Sedai... pattern. If it's an action that a Warder has to manually submit every night, there's an increased chance the Warder could choose who to protect first.

Those two as elims can defeat a 5 vote train. If before vote manipulation it's Forsaken (5): Villager 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Villager (2): Forsaken, Amyrlin Seat then after compulsion + vote shift it's Forsaken (3): Villager 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Villager (3): Forsaken, Amyrlin Seat, Villager 1, 2 and the villager auto-dies in the tie. Potentially, depending on vote patterns. Early votes on teammates are risky, while votes placed on at the end can scare people away.

The Amyrlin Seat has a guaranteed vote shift ability that can move or remove a vote. I don't see the Amyrlin Seat as an elim role unless there's no Forsaken since the two of them would have effectively five and a half votes. The Forsaken would know their vote doesn't count, so them voting for Conq in #1 wouldn't mean he's village. I think you say this later though.

The immediate reason was thinking it was strange that Illwei wasn't voting in self-preservation, yes. She easily could have assumed Blademaster would protect him from the exe, since that's what extra lives usually do. I also thought that clearing/village reading all the high-posters was premature. A vote getting removed from you is notable since it was a tie right up until the end, but there's no way to tell the difference between Amyrlin Seat, Compulsion, and Forsaken missing vote just from the tally, much less determine why someone would want to save you/kill Illwei.

So it's tied 3-3 with less than ten minutes left. Illwei will either shift at the end, has teammates who will vote, has access to vote manip more reliable than 40%, or simply doesn't care about the risk of death. Some of those options lean elim but the last one is more village. Can't tell which it is. I can force it by voting for Illwei.

5 does require every villager, or every villager with lots of posts, to have independently come to the conclusion that thread control is more important this game than in other games. Without that, people trying to control the thread more than they typically do are more likely to be elims. More than they typically do is important though, since Illwei is always a thread person, Mat tries to fill in gaps, and Araris votes to kill people. @Illwei, you've village cleared a lot of people contingent on Conq being elim, but don't seem to think he's evil. That makes your PoE mostly low posters; me, Wizard, Silhouette, Vorros, Sart, xino? I guess that's more than half the players, but little thread control.

Most weaves aren't terribly difficult stat-wise so it's likely any two people will be able to do most of them. Lightning's the one that would need discussion. Decreasing the complexity is a pretty big jump, but two people separately submitting 2 and 3 complexity weaves are about as likely to get 1+ success than if they linked. Lightning benefits the most in this regard. Linking can help accountability, submitting a link order for a weave you can't do ensures that the other person has to submit a link order, which can identify someone lying about being an Aes Sedai or inconvenience an elim who really needs one of their other weaves to succeed. I can confirm that TUN mentioned the elim kill is a physical action in the approval PM months ago, which I should have reread beforehand since it also mentioned how contradictory linking worked . Why are Araris/Luck never e/e besides reading Araris as village?

So links with contradictory actions are randomly decided instead of individual? An elim Aes Sedai can link with a village Aes Sedai to shield someone but choose to use lightning instead with a 1/2 chance of shield, 1/2 chance of lightning?

3 elims is a lot for 11 people, but there's enough potential for village powerful/safe roles and extra lives that it's plausible. Something like Forsaken + Blademaster is also possible with fewer such roles. You can take two physical actions if a weave isn't submitted so it would need to be two PMs if the kill counts as one. That would still be unreliable since raise fog, mirror of mists, and fold light mess with scans while renew gives someone another physical action. When you send in your weave order to your GM PM, you state who your linking with. If those players also submit orders to link with each other and you, it works. Otherwise, it's probably just individual. Since every weave has a failure chance, it seems pretty easy for an elim to say they'll link and then do something else unless it's an information weave. @The Unknown Novel, if multiple people link to use say delve, who learns what physical actions were used?