Archer
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Everything posted by Archer
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You can't spell schoolbus without sus. Lahilt Ash
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This is a bad attitude to have at exlo, and that's pinging my elimdar. However, I think Mat and Lahilt have both expressed suspicions of Ashw, so I'm wary that that's their preffered mix. I'm still at where I was yesterday, eyeing Mat or Dannex, Ash, and Lahilt. TJ's vote, given his timezone, is probably going to stick? So I'm a little worried about that. And Dannex seems pro-Mat, so either way we're probably going to have a villager dissenting. If Az, Araris, and one of Dannex or TJ all come to a concensus, I'd be willing to move my vote to get the majority. Wait hang on. We need 5 votes to exe today, ya? Which is the entire village. That complicates things. I'll see where everyone else is at, then move if needbe. Lahilt is still a good pick, IMO though. Just putting it out there.
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This take by Araris sounds right enough that I'm putting him down as village, and I'll go along with Az probably not being too. Plus they weren't on last Night so they're the theoretical less catchable elim. TJ is still village to me. I don't think e!Danex would explicitly collude with e!Mat, so I'm calling them not e-e. My pool is Dannex or Mat, and Ash, and Lahilt. The value play is one of Lahilt or Ash, but I had Lahilt down as more suspicious when I did my Night reads.
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From the reads: -Tani voted for them. More interestingly, Mat said Danex-Tani likely v-v, so the kill removes a threat and gets village cred. -On Team Info Exe – sheeped Mat for D2 vote too. I've been suspicious of everyone trying to create a sense of urgency early in the Day by saying we need to get any exe, especially when our Nights are being underused. -Gave a lengthy rebuttal to Tani connection accusations. Seems like e!overthinking That was my first thought too, I don't get it. Always kill Mat first. That's Rule Number One. :P. But to your point, it suggests we have an elim in that group. Possibly more, and they're leaving other actives alive because it provides cover for why they themselves haven't been NKed. That said, I think I prefer Lahilt to Araris at this point. I'm always wary when someone says "I read the thread and changed my mind", I feel like it's a thing elims do to justify backing off a vote without really needing to come up with a reason for it.
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What's MYLO? Nothing, what's the mylo with you? They've been kinda claiming elim the whole game through. The skeptic in me says someone told you in the elim doc that that was an easy vote to camp on. I've pulled that move as an elim before. I'm gonna kick things off with a vote on Dannex. See my reads list for the rationale. Also, TUO is an interesting pick. I guess thread control isn't a concern. I was lowkey hoping to get NKed before this cycle because starting tommorow, I've got a busy few days coming up. Perhaps they're just playing suboptimally to spite me :P.
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You right. Shame on you Mat, for tunneling. The rest of us engaged in perfectly well thought out... inquisitive digging. Also, I reckon a four-person team of A-listers would be overpowered (because of the awesome alliteration). But a three-man Azmine, Araris, and Ashwastaken group would work out fine. :P. EDIT: Reads list, from most villagery to least: TJ: -Extremely cool under pressure D1. (Reason/Excuse: IRL stuff) -Voted Ashwastaken D2. I like their view at the time that it looked like the elims tried to kill them and didn’t have the votes for whatever reason. Araris: -Second Mage vote. Araris gets away with piggybacking as an elim a lot -Implied he thought elims had active Day doc -Said okay voting off new player D1. Perhaps a sensitive subject -Pinged TUO, Tani, TJ, and Az. If an elim, I’m guessing one of those pings was a shoutout to a partner, and the others were to conceal the signalling. Mat: -Tani liked the Mat-TUO e-e theory -First Mage vote! With no explanation! That’s pretty villagery -Asked about ethics of voting off a new player D1 – possibly cued Ashwastaken to switch to Araris -Jokingly(?) asked for village cred from not knowing about elim doc rules -Posted a reads list! With no reasons TUO: -Called Az’s vote contrived… which was stolen reasoning from Araris’ post Ashwastaken -“RNG” self-voted initially and advertised their pokes as pokes. And backed off of them quickly when got a response. In their self-analysis gave themselves a pass for poke voting, which could show e!overthinking. Doing a self-analysis is odd. -Impatient to get the discussion going D1, but specifically said later they won’t post in depth notes unless asked for an opinion. -Made comment about wanting to know what the spec doc was saying, which maybe stemmed from a conversation with Illwei in their GM PM? And elims usually talk to the GM more. That one’s a stretch. -On Team Info Exe (pushing hard for an exe, any exe, even as they say it might kill a villager) -In the back half of D1 there’s a stretch where Mat randomly said they had an irrational elim read on Araris and then Ashwastaken also came up with a mild elim read on Araris, both of which seemed out of the blue and shortly after the discussion about whether Mage should get a rookie pass. -I still can’t find where they claimed elim, but they’re eager to advertise it. There’s a lot that could be performative to their discussion Lahilt: -Advertised their vote on TJ as a poke D1. No response to TJ becoming viable wagon because of it. (Excuse: IRL stuff) -On Team Info Exe. Leaned into it D2 as sole reason for their vote. Danex: -Tani voted for them. More interestingly, Mat said Danex-Tani likely v-v, so the kill removes a threat and gets village cred. -On Team Info Exe – sheeped Mat for D2 vote too -Gave a lengthy rebuttal to Tani connection accusations. Seems like e!overthinking Azmine: -First post didn’t have a poke, which was a surprising bit of hesitation. They then voted Mat at random. -On Team Info Exe -About faced and came out strongly on Mage D2. I think they read the elim doc in the Night and the team decided to go after Mage
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Well. That's frustrating. I think I'm actually less annoyed that we wasted five days on killing a teammate and more annoyed that I locked in on Mage and didn't really give them a chance. +1 to what Mat said, I hope you join us again soon. I gotta reread, but my initial thought is that that was probably easy killin' for the elims. TJ had the luxery of being able to step off, be it distancing or foresight, because the mix was decided in C1. How unlikely do y'all think it is for the elims to be the A team? :P. Also, Ashwastaken, why do you keep saying you're evil? And everyone who said any flip is a good flip, what were we supposed to learn here?
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Quick thoughts: -I'm getting weird vibes from people who are eager to remind us how villagery they've been. Cactash keeps mentioning how they claimed elim, and Mat that they didn't know the elim doc rules. I am more convinced of ignorance like Araris', as he said D1: "An elim could definitely post misleading probabilities (in the case of a newer player, likely at the behest of their team) in order to throw people off." -I can see a Danex-Mage team being a thing. I'll probably go down the list of D1 TJ voters as my top suspects if Mage flips elim. I can't see elims sticking to vanity wagons if their teammate is under fire like they were. Also, I think Mage voting for Ashwastaken was a legitimate CW attempt, so take the first point with a grain of salt. -Yes, Mat, you should have just explained those from the beginning :P. -Araris, I like the emoji.
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Good to know. For a vanilla game, there sure is a lot of rules. :P. Speaking of which, Illwei, if say TJ doesn't post this Day, are they out because they didn't talk last Night? @Illwei I was also a little confused by the pick. I remember Mat had a village read on them and they did cast a vote, but they weren't really that much of a threat at this stage in the game. On the one hand, this. I continue to read Mage as not village, because theyre not really pursuing any leads. On the other hand, I think we've got 6 votes on them today, based on what people have said. But there's a concerning among of 'any kill is a good kill' sentiment going around and a lack of opposition to Mage's death. There's TJ, Lahilt, and I think TUO unaccounted for, and apparently the elims couldn't coordinate a defence until yesterday, but something is off. If we get 9 votes on Mage, I'll be worried. On the other other hand, they pointedly didn't die last Day, so Mage
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On that note, this game will be lost through inactivity. So I think we should keep the discussions going throughout the Night, so that we have a better hope of pulling off an exe during the Days. People who didn't vote Mage, why didn't you vote Mage? The cleanest defence the elim team can pull off right now is simply forcing a wagon on their teammate to fail by splintering the vote, but I'm sure there was some legitimate villager miscues, so we need to sort out what was what and whether getting threatened clears Mage or TJ in any way. I'm leaning no, but I'd still like to know why people's votes stuck where they did. Who would you vote for now? After tonight, the ratio should be 7v:3e. Then after C2 it'll be 5v:3e, which raises the stakes for C3 because the C3 NK could bring about parity. Or we forgo another exe, and force a 4v:3e C4. I think at this point, exing whenever possible is the best route because evidently it's not something that we can reliably do. Hopefully we get an elim hit early on and none of those end game setups will matter.
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I'm fairly comfortable voting Mage. Well really I'm not because they're new but I genuinely find their posts suspicious and at least twice in recent games I've forgone the obvious choice D1 in favour of someone more polite to murder, and both times I've regretted it. Looking at you, e!Illwei. >. > I'm trying to decide if Araris calling his vote a stab at this stage is a joke or subtle distancing. Also I have an irrational suspicion of Ashwastaken, but I think that's just because they keep saying things. :P. Which is good, keep it up.
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That is indeed the main drawback, so I'm leaning towards not forgoing Thats a convient poke, since it helps create a four vote train on a guy who so far has only said one word. This guy gets it Voting for consolidation in the first half of the cycle seems off to me. I was actually hoping to stay on this vote until TJ showed up again, but I'm wary of leaving it too late: TJ Mage I don't think the four person elim team is remotely likely. If they hammer D1 and NK, it becomes 5:4, meaning we need perfect concensus in C2 or we lose. That's just too difficult. So it's likely three. The benefit is if we skip an exe, C1: 8v:3e, C2: 6v:3e, C3: 4v:3e nevermind I'm dumb. I thought it worked out if you skipped it made the 4:3 cycle, not it'd happen naturally. I've misled you with math. Am I the bad guy??
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Hm. Confusing the thread with the mystic art of math is a classic elim tell, but I’m giving the cactash a pass for now because they’re driving discussion. :P. That said, I was confused by their explanation of their poke vote. Danex also advertised their vote as a poke. It’s never made sense to me to say it’s a poke if you’re genuinely trying to scare someone. Mage’s post is full of things I don’t like. Distancing from the consequences of their vote by claiming newness and RNG isn’t a great look. I’d tend to agree that it looks like the elim doc told them to be low profile because of how isolated the statement is, with few connections that could draw attention. I like the thought process behind TUO’s vote, but Az made the post fairly early in the cycle, so the vote isn’t that suspicious to me. The framing Az went with is notable though; focussing on consolidation that early in the cycle does seem off. I’d like to get some consensus on our elim team size predication, and whether skipping exes makes sense. Howdy! I forgot to say hi to all the people I haven't played with yet, so hi to the rest of you as well. When in the cycle do you like to vote, Lahilt? I see you're not really getting in on the poking game
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*high-fives in EST* I figured today would come down to let's either exe Player One or Player Two, or Player One or Nobody. I'd certainly like to have a valid threat of an exe, to get some reactions. The tricky part about this game is the need for consolidation. The elims will likely target active participatants to increase their thread control in the late stages of Day rounds. Then they have the power to jump off wagons, turning say a 7 person train into a 4 person one that fails, or to add to new ones to get a mix. So we'll probably need to commit the last half or so of Days to consolidation, then use the Night and first half the Day for idea sharing if we're ever going to pull off a successful elim kill.
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Spren Ten was walking home from school when he heard the cry for help. With lightning speed, he slapped the button on his watch and transformed into a large green alien monster creature thing! With a flyswatter! "I WILL SLAY THE WASP!" Observe, TJ: A vote? On ME?? I am shocked, shocked that my clever machinations were foiled by such dumb a luck as RNG. How could it be that you have ruined three hours worth of planning with the simple click of a button? I am shookth- be quiet, notifications, I'm monologuing Edit: Excuse me, I was just getting into character >. >
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He was an ordinary teenager until he found a magical watch that allows him to transform into different alien forms. I'm guessing we're dealing with a three man elim team. That means we go 8:3, 6:3, 3:3 with all mixes, functionally losing at C3 because we need a majority to control the exe. However, we have the option of forgoing an exe at some point, which might setup a C3 of 4:3, when we may have a better idea of who to kill. Good idea! TJ
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I'll play as Spren Ten. C3 is a busy weekend for me, so if I make it to then, don't expect much
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Oh I see what you're getting at now. I actually viewed it as the kinder approach, letting e!them off the hook for having to do their due diligence to attempt to sway the thread and win it for them team against terrible odds. But yeah, I apologize @Azmine_king for putting you in that position.
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Valid point. I didn't even reread the thread during the last cycle. While I appreciate some people have the capacity and energy to continually rehash every possible outcome (), Mat saying they could have doubled the elim kill and won the game and Tani being soft-cleared from Squirrel's vote were compelling enough arguments that I didn't feel it would have been very productive to spend much time debating it.
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WELL DONE XD Wow, didn't see that coming. Sorry, guys. It was a good game, well I was here. Thanks for running it, Ash. I need to digest that plot twist a little longer. I knew the team seemed a little too convenient, but Mat must have been bussing early because wasn't he going against Xino? Conversion games are weird. Edit: I am now slightly frustrated at myself. Subbing in is fun, but there were a few shortcuts taken to get up to speed. Should have followed up on what Araris' scan actually meant, and kept my options fluid in the final round. Can I get half credit for clocking Mat's poke as suspicious?
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I see I was pinged! Sorry guys, I didn't think I'd need to check. Helpfully, we left the person with the stronger case against them for last, so I'll throw my vote on Azmine too. I'll save you the trouble, Az, and tell you at this point I don't think there's any way you could talk me out of that vote.
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Cool. I'll vote Az Xino because getting rid of the vote soother seems like a good idea Edit : Messed up the coding. Take two: Xino mobile is hard okay
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Ash told me I succeeded in making Squirrel vote for Squirrel. Also, Az voted Mat, so they probably aren't e-e. And Mat was on Xino. Add in all the other trusts and it has to be lobe elim Mat. In which case he has two charges to tank. So Mat is cleared IMO Edit: waaaait a minute. If it has to be two remaining elims and its not anyone but Az... that doesn't work either.
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Good job subbing in to a high pressure role, @Squirrelwatcher. That went well! Personally, I'd like to believe TUO followed my advice and shot themselves to avoid giving the elims a weapon. :P. I succeeded in making Squirrel self vote. That's obviously not reflected in the vote count. Huh. Elandera knew she was being killed. That's why she made that post that was just a vote on Mat. Yay mindgames. That tells us she had no way of blocking it. Someone who knows the OOA, could there have been a conversion last cycle as Sja died? Obviously, Tani was being set up as the fall girl last cycle. Squirrel was going for them, at least. So she's clear. Kas and me are too, for voting Squirrel. It's not a great look that Mat went for Xino, but my previous analysis had me thinking if he's evil, it's a three man team. Which would leave two charges open for tanking. I'd believe Mint missed a conversion when she was busy, but I need to work the math there I'm inclined to think Xino is clear since they showed up but didn't help the hammer. Basically I'm down to Az .
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For all the time she had to plan it, I'm surprised e!Tani tried to go onto TUO then backtracked suddenly. I think it's possible they have the real PM person on their team and covering for them, and the post was well planned out to be a solid claim. On the other hand, the AAAA seemed genuine. And Tani acted weirdly in the Zelda game in a similar situation when village. Based on her PM info dumps, I'm convinced she's not Sja, so I'll retract my vote. Working assumption: Kas and TUO are village. So far, Mat has been okay killing Tani, Xino, me, and Az. That leaves Squirrel and Elandera as possible teammates, with Squirrel as the probable Sja who missed a conversion while still busy!Mint. Squirrel being willing to kill Tani and Mat not wanting to kill Squirrel feeds into this theory. But the key takeaway is Elandera and Squirrel have to be evil if you suspect Mat, so look there first if you're aiming your coinshot rifle. If you instead view Mat as village, along with TUO, and Kas, we're looking at Elandera, Xino, Squirrel, Az, because I saw Squirrel asking the thread what Tani was in a not e-e way. That config works because it keeps not e-e TUO and Az apart, but I think Az is village from their interaction. Which drops us to a three person team. Xino hasn't said much, but what they did say I actually liked. Although they didn't directly confront anyone. But they likely negated their own vote, so that makes them non Sja. Squirrel tripped my radar with their vote movement based on 'I read the thread and changed my mind' which felt a little easy to me. I think I'm okay with exing them today. Friendly reminder that that vote will count as double, because I have magic powers. I'm hesitant to kill Elandera because we know she isn't Sja. I'd rather kill any other possible Sja's who are likely to be evil. But I can't think of any, based on the assumptions I've made. Every elim team I can make has both Squirrel and Elandera in it, so that's probably a sign they're evil. Tani Squirrel Yeah my read on you is almost solely based on your interaction with TUO, but it did feel like your style, so I'm sticking with it. Who ya voting?
