Yitzi2

Or it could mean that each one has a unique spren, as opposed to the other orders that all have the same type of spren.

The two top possibilities are Autonomy or from Sel (either Dominion, or a merging of Dominion and Devotion). Advantages for Autonomy: She's indicated to be an ally of Odium, who definitely wants Sazed taken out, and is presumably significant to the events of age 2 (given how specific the relative timing of age 2 and the Stormlight Archive plot needs to be). Plot-wise, Autonomy would be a good Shard for Kelsier to take up. Advantage for something from Sel: Assuming that the Trell won't be resolved until age 3 (likely, as the original plan didn't have a full series for age 2, and a war between Shards is Cosmere-significant enough that he wouldn't have just left it out; him having simply moved things around is possible though somewhat unlikely IMO), this would explain nicely why Brandon specifically wanted to do Elantris 2 before Mistborn age 3. Specific disadvantage for Dominion alone: A reformed Dominion would have neither the power to match Sazed like a merging of Devotion and Dominion would, nor the experience to overcome the power disparity like Bavadin might. Specific disadvantages for Dominion+Devotion: Such a Shard seems unlikely to be as aggressive and disruptive as Trell seems to be. Calling that "a shard we've seen before" is stretching it.

Have you read the prelude scene from Oathbringer (it's one of the previews)? I suspect we saw a Dawnshard there (and if you've read it, you should know what I'm referring to).

This is just what a Ghostblood would say. Of course, it's also what a non-Ghostblood would say...still, I figure it's a decent compromise proposal.

D1? I predicted it before the game even started. (Which is part of why accusing me for being a SoH for saying the same thing on D1 makes little sense, though there I did add my opinion that such a game favors the Alethi; such opinion is, of course, now less true depending on how many Shardbearers the Parshendi get.) And I figure we can lynch Jon later if necessary; if it will help make the Parshendi feel more comfortable about the situation, Jondesu HH.

Which mistaken assumptions would these be?

You can trust it absolutely. Of course, that still leaves open all sorts of possibilities about our actual alignments, but you can absolutely trust that if the case turns out to be "Yitzi=Alethi, Orlok=Son of Honor, Orlok is proven to be lying", I will go fully for the neutral victory.

Question: How do you get a count of 3 on Orlok, and then list 4 names?

If the serial killer is Kelsier, he'd likely have a good reason for it. That said, I have a crazy Kelsier-related theory for Mistborn era 3: If Trell is Bavadin, I theorize that by the end of it, Kelsier takes up the Shard of Autonomy.

1. Taravangian becomes a Bondsmith. 2. Eshonai rejects Odium and Voidbringer forms. 3. Dalinar loses his boon and curse from the Old Magic. That's only 3, but I think they're major enough to count extra.

Exactly. Except let's say "outright lies" rather than "deceit", as that's quite a bit stronger, and is the case we're discussing here. And, in such a case, I, at least, would not be willing to work with the SoH even for the sake of winning the game. (I take very poorly to being lied to by a supposed ally.) That said, lynching Orlok is a horrible idea, since there's a good chance he's dying next cycle anyway.

Clearly, we need to compile all the WoBs and theorycraft enough that we can reconstitute his notes.

Did you (5th book spoiler coming, you have been warned):

About the point mentioned earlier about artifacts from our age: In book 1, Bayle Domon mentions "a mountain hollowed into a bowl, and in its center, a silver spike a hundred spans high, and any who comes within a mile of it, dies". That sounds like something from a bit later in our age.

That assumes that the unaligned Alethi would be willing to work with people who manipulated them like that through outright lies (or rather, that the Sons think they would); I know that I, for one, wouldn't. If Jon turns out to not be a Ghostblood, and Orlok is a Son, then I'm abandoning my earlier position about the unaligned Alethi working with the Sons.

You're welcome.

I'm afraid this was my fault; I (yes, I'm the one who was asterion's contact at the time) meant to ask whether you wanted it (you might not, if you were concerned about the veracity of the claim), but failed to be as clear as I should have been (I'm not quite sure why I wasn't clearer, as reading it over I can see how unclear I was). And I'll vote Jondesu as well. (Though, if he's right about Voidbringer counts, we've still got 1-2 more to deal with.) EDIT: Another point: Elbereth mentioned last cycle the case that the Ghostbloods know who the Voidbringers are, because they claimed in their doc. The hit on another Voidbringer (and one without protection) this cycle supports that theory. If this theory is true, that would imply that the Voidbringers, at least, are (or, for 2 of them, were) under the impression that the Parshendi as a whole are supporting them, i.e. betraying the Alethi. Personally, I find that a bit hard to believe, but I think it still bears mentioning. EDIT 2: So you name 5 people, and then "of those 5" pick someone who isn't actually on the list?

3-4 Voidbringers out of 8 Parshendi total? Not what I'd expect, but ok.

By the way, can any Parshendi verify whether Elenion did ask for protection, and whether he received it? The case against him is strong either way, but it's much stronger if nobody protected him.

Just the opposite. An Alethi vs. Parshendi game is one that the Ghostbloods probably wouldn't want, since it greatly increases the chance of a different secret faction getting victory and thus making them lose even without them all being killed. (The Ghostbloods are the only group that can lose without losing all their members, by the Parshendi all being knocked out with at least one Son of Honor left, or the Alethi all being knocked out with at least one Voidbringer left.) It does mean a lower priority on lynching Ghostbloods, but the fact that they'd be in danger of losing even if none of them are found would make that largely irrelevant. By the way, I noticed something interesting: Jondesu (near the bottom of page 10) seemed to think it likely that most players belong to a secret faction. Now, this would be a somewhat unusual situation (usually secret factions are a fairly small minority at the beginning of the game), so why would he think that? The first possibility to come to mind was that he's a Voidbringer, and they have 4 members (maybe 3), so by extrapolating from Parshendi-to-Voidbringer ratios, he concluded that a high proportion of people in secret factions was likely. The second possibility was that he's a Ghostblood, and was extrapolating from their membership (particularly if they have 2 Parshendi members; if they were only 1 Parshendi and 3 Alethi, the likely implication would be 4-5 Sons of Honor and 2 Voidbringers, making only half or less members belonging to secret factions, while them being 1 Parshendi and 4 Alethi would be a fairly sizable Mafia group even for a non-faction game, and highly unlikely for this one (though possible due to seeking factions calling for larger secret groups); it would also be a fairly unusual imbalance.) So while I don't think Jondesu is quite as likely to belong to a secret faction as Elenion was last cycle, he still seems fairly suspicious, plus if he is a member of a secret faction then lynching him will give us valuable information regarding the size (and composition, for Ghostbloods) of his faction.

Ok, I understand why you listed me under "Sons of Honour, and their allies" (though it's spelled "Honor"), but why do you suspect me of being a Ghostblood?

Why not? It did a pretty good job of outing a Voidbringer, didn't it? Otherwise, we'd need to lynch him again to confirm anyway, and that would give him one extra turn in Stormform. Do you want him killing more Alethi? Whether Ghostblood or Son of Honor, whoever did that double tap did the village a service (though whether they're regretting that now is another question). Also, since you are of the opinion that the Ghostbloods didn't try to kill anybody, do you have any theories as to why not?

Elenion. Though @asterion137, it might have been better to stay quiet about your role, and ask if anyone had protected him. As I mentioned last cycle, if no one protected him and yet he survived two attacks, that would pretty much prove that he was a Voidbringer (who switched to Stormform), and if someone claimed to have protected him, you could have then revealed that he was a Voidbringer, and we might have an extra Voidbringer candidate as well. EDIT: @Seonid if A is attacked but protected by Warform B, would it say that A was attacked, that B was attacked, or that an attack on A was redirected to B? And if a guardsman is injured, is that noted in the writeup? EDIT2: Also, I was expecting the Ghostblood kill to target an Alethi, and find it extremely interesting that it didn't.

Question: What happens if the lynch is tied? Also, fun situation time: Say A is protected by Highprince C (who's already used up their shardplate) and B protected by Highprince D (shardplate is also used up). A and B attack each other. Would this then result in D attacks A and C attacks B, so C and D attack each other, so they both die?

No. The us-vs-them lynch (or, more specifically, the fact that Alethi remaining alive helps Alethi, plus the fact that Voidbringers are a much bigger threat to vanilla Alethi than Sons are) is why we're lynching a Parshendi (or at least the main reason for that); the other reasons are why we're lynching you in particular. As I said, I should have stated that I was assuming that (a) protection by another Parshendi in Warform will be stated as such and (b) that no such statement occurred.