Yitzi2
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Everything posted by Yitzi2
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It's possible that the elims started with two Firebrands. @Cluny the Scourge please do not use Cytonics against me.
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Even if so, it would be unlikely for that to move him to a lynch chance much lower than average. Ergo, there would be a significant chance of him being lynched, being found to be an elim, and ending up antagonizing the neutrals to the elims instead. I'll agree that it isn't 100% proof of his non-elim-hood, but the only way to turn it into a reason for suspicion that he's an elim is if you think he's a really bad player, or at least a risk-loving one.
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I believe we already discussed that possibility D1 and concluded that it would simply be too risky a play and backfire too easily for Rand to be trying for that.
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He is probably right about the POs and Thief being bad for the village. As for why the elims could have a Tineye, I've only played one game with neutral roles (other than this), but in it, the elims did have a courier (the equivalent for that game). I'm also a bit wary of labeling as "anti-Neutral sentiment" the position that certain particular neutrals are more likely to benefit the elims rather than the village and that it is therefore in the village's best interest to lynch them, for no small part because I am "guilty" of such a position myself (targeted against Rand, ironically). What does your analysis say about him actually being the PO himself? I thought he was, but now I'm not so sure...
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In fact, lurking looks even worse, because at least an inactive elim probably isn't going to be sending in the kill or participating in a hammer.
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Keep in mind, I'm the one who came up with the plan we're using to avoid more UIB deaths due to Cytonics. So unless you think I gave the village a good plan just in order to disguise myself...
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I don't think I really understand either of your comments.
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Whoops. My mistake. I said Straw, and meant STINK.
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I had a thought (actually last night, but then I forgot about it and remembered now): Straw did a lot of claiming to be neutral. How many of those claims were as part of a roleclaim trade? If he's been doing a lot of roleclaim trading, is neutral, and is unwilling to tell us which neutral role he is, I'm wondering if he might be the thief.
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But also bring the possibility of getting an extra village kill in the process, especially if they're lynched early on.
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About Joe: What was your conclusion that I didn't reach? I must have missed it. (I also missed Wilson's claim, what was that one?) And that's a good point about my vote on you; perhaps the fact that I retracted fairly early will help make it clearer that it was based on an honest belief that you were a dangerous-to-the-village neutral role, rather than trying to get a villager lynched or alienate you. My seeming out-of-character may be at least partially due to being able to be that active early on. (My near-miss with a lynch in QF24 over my strategizing to help the village might have also had an effect.)
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Alcatraz versus Scrivener's Bones
Yitzi2 replied to Oversleep's topic in Alcatraz Versus the Evil Librarians
I should hope you didn't. Seeing as he lived to tell about it, we can presume that he was not actually sacrificed. -
If the OP's theory is true, then ettmetal is not an alloy of atium and lerasium (as alloying two metals does not work at the atomic level). Anybody know how much evidence there is that it actually is such an alloy?
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The way the math works out, "no mass" translates instantly to "speed of light", but "negative mass" would not translate into FTL (it's like how dividing 1 by 0 gives infinity, but dividing 1 by -0.001 doesn't give more than infinity). That said, I think Brandon has been pretty clear that storing iron does not primarily reduce one's mass, but rather the effect of gravity.
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Question about being able to use multiple magic systems
Yitzi2 replied to Paladin Brewer's question in Cosmere Q&A
Naturally mined...do we know anything about how usable Soulcast metal is for allomancy? -
If they were able to scan, they'd be taking out UIB agents and the PCO, not soldiers. EDIT: I find it interesting that the elims chose to go after someone who could be defending against anyone, rather than someone that had been asked by a villager (in order to frame them) or an elim (if they thought we wouldn't put so much weight on it). Didn't that post just say "I remember being suspicious of him, but not why"?
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And it's Firefox, which is usually pretty good about that sort of thing.
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Browser ate my post; good thing it wasn't a really huge one: 1. When I talked about the effects of Joe's claim given that someone wants to lynch him, I was referring more to the "willingness to make a deal with the elims" part (which would make him a lot easier to lynch); I did know that the PO already knows who the Convict is. 2. About why the PO has incentives to help the elims late game: Consider the following simplified scenario: Neutrals except the PO are all guaranteed wins and have gone inactive. There are 3 villagers, 2 elims, no rioters or soothers, and everybody knows each others' alignment. It's day. If the PO does nothing, then an elim gets lynched, villager gets killed, elim gets lynched, game over with the Convict still alive, so the PO loses. If the PO votes for the Convict, the elims will join him (essentially a hammer), making it a tie. (The Convict doesn't vote because the Ward isn't threatened.) 50% chance that means the Convict is lynched, so a villager is killed and it's game (elim win, PO wins). Otherwise, a villager is killed for 1v2 and the PO, so the PO tries again, making a total of 75% chance that the elims win due to the PO's vote. (Obviously, deals could be struck, but if so it's better to do so earlier than later, and the elims still have an advantage with regard to the Convict in that they don't need the Convict to do anything except cooperate in his own win condition.)
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You were, however, close to becoming a Serial Killer. @Seonid can we all have links to the elim and spec docs?
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My apologies for the mistake.
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And on which of the people who switched to Jon? Anyway, @Amanuensis I still owe you two analyses (oh, and that quote was one that I saw on the other site in the match; while I didn't get to watch that match as it was happening, I did notice it afterward and looked at least a bit before finding that it was too hard to follow after-the-fact): Arraenae: He gave advice that rioters and soothers save their charges for late game. This is good advice, and is suggestive of him being village. Likewise regarding his criticism of the suggestion that tineyes alternate days. I now notice that he did have Revolution-focused RP like I mentioned for Drake (and in fact started it), though it doesn't feel the same...I think it might be the mention of "the Cause" by Drake that felt so over-the-top. In any case, the fact that Rae started that RP means that Drake doesn't seem as suspicious as I first thought. Also contributed some on the Joe matter. Overall, not really suspicious, though some of the interaction with Drake does seem a bit buddy-like. Crimsn-Wolf: A lot of posts, not extremely helpful ones, but nothing particularly suspicious there either. I tried to solve the game by analyzing the endgame implications of the PO, and my resulting suggestion is what got you suspicious of me. So...
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That's the idea. By asking, we prevent another cytonics kill of an investigator (and the village needs its investigators), but the accountability means the elims can't exploit it with impunity.
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Ok, but right now I have some other things to take care of, so it'll have to wait a few hours.
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To the first question: The fact that you're twisty enough to want your suspect to be aware of the observation suggests that you're twisty in your elim-finding methods. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that that'd be the sort of thing to potentially explain why elims seem to be scared of you. As for your other question (thoughts on Straw plus five others): I didn't have quite that many analyzed before, so I'll have to go back to the threads for a few more, but: -Straw: Wants to contribute (presumably to avoid the lynch), but doesn't really have any meaningful way to do so. The other players said that's within his normal village meta, and I'm inclined to believe them on that (I'm still too new to know much of the meta myself). -STINK: More interested in socializing than winning. Could be any alignment (though neutral roles other than PO and Thief are unlikely since they'd come with someone to focus more of his socializing on), but probably not going to be a major contributor to victory regardless. -Randuir: Probably the PO, considering how eager he was to lynch the Convict. Not really sure what else there is to say on that front. -Araris: He was (I did not notice this when I first voted for him) the second person to vote for Straw, copying the reasoning of the first. He then did not post again until pushed; that sounds to me like either a fairly busy villager, a villager with nothing really to say, or an elim trying to hide. (Admittedly, I did much the same, though in my case the lack of stuff to say was at least partially due to the fact that I wasn't able to get to the thread until it was well underway.) He then went on to call out the people who joined his vote, which I can admire in a villager (I see it as a mark of intellectual integrity), but could also be an elim trying to throw suspicion on villagers. -Drake Marshall: His posts seem to have (with the exception of a cancelled vote on Joe) been RPing very focused on the Revolution. Now, he might just be an RP-aligned player, but it seems to me that the heavy Revolution focus might also be a way for an elim to seem village. -Joe: His directing the lynch to Jondesu near the last minute (and it seems clear it was his initiative) would seem a lot to me like an elim trying to protect a buddy while maximizing the possible number of buddies he was protecting, but that would require his Convict claim to be a lie, which is dangerous due to having two people who can call him on it. So I'm inclined to say that he really did simply want chaos like he claimed. How does that follow? Just because someone defends a position doesn't mean they can't be persuaded otherwise by enough evidence (in this case, the input of someone who clearly was considering the one factor I did not know, namely the meta).
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Is it so hard to believe that I read other people's suspicions and found them believable, then read the post of someone who knows Randuir's meta better than I do and decided that was more credible?