Yitzi2
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Everything posted by Yitzi2
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That pretty much is what I said. Or did you forget the first part and just read the "I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are elims" part? Because that would be quite a confession, and quite an accusation as well. (Though if I were an elim who'd essentially been caught, and were willing to lie, something like that might make for an interesting way to mess with everybody's heads. Particularly if some of the rest of that list were and some weren't, which is statistically fairly likely.)
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I think the second reason is stronger than the first, since it is possible that the elims contacted the real Convict/Noble and threatened them (or the Ward in the Convict's case) to keep them from counter claiming. I don't think it's all that likely (that sort of thing would probably backfire, similar to your point about elim!Rand, plus be a waste of a kill if they did it anyway, plus reveal at least one elim if they decided to go to the village with it), but it would be a possible play. Eight elims, on the other hand, is pretty much impossible without heavy advantages to the village (e.g. 2 Coinshots with unlimited Steel, or several alignment detectors).
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Because 8 elims out of 22 non-neutrals is a ridiculously high number of elims?
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As you should be. We should all be watching each other. While attention is on me, here's something that's been bothering me: Why is it “Rust their warnings, rust their lies!”, rather than “Rust their warnings, ruin their lies!”? ("Rust and ruin" is a common pairing.) Was it just that it was started by someone who's not that familiar with age 2 Scadrial?
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A few places, but the one that comes to mind is the intersite championship game, where Aman said "despite being one of most feared "high threat" players" about himself. (Herself? I don't know other players' genders for the most part, and have been mistaken for a woman myself due to my uncommon name.)
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So you want me to know that I'm under observation... I begin to see why elims tend to be scared of you.
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That it did...and I'm one of the people who was saved as a result. EDIT: Breaking a tie last-minute is suspicious. Breaking a tie for someone who wasn't even in the running beforehand is just plain weird. The only think in our favor is that it's pretty much impossible that I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are all elims.
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And now for a bit of RP, set a few days ago. Garshin woke to find himself once again in a sea of mists. At least his leg no longer hurt. You have done well, came a voice into his mind. For a reward, you may return home...sort of. Sort of? Then he understood: The tests were not over, but the next would at least take place in his own time. He would be back in Elendel...no, not Elendel. He would be in Bilming.
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@BrightnessRadiant please do not guard against me. (Also, @randuir one extra point to the plan is that the PC Operator should (once it's time for him to start killing) probably not regularly kill the person he asked, since that could lead the elims to him.)
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To address some of what was said about me in the previous cycle that I wasn't able to address there due to sleep: -I am American, not European. New York, in particular. -I never definitively state that someone is villager or elim, except as the result of an alignment detection (of which there are none in this game). If I'm villager, I can't know for certain and don't want to inadvertently lie, and doing it only when I'm elim would of course be a huge tell. -I would sometimes state that someone is probably a villager, but I wouldn't state that about STINK since I really have no way of knowing that either. I just feel that making a lot of PMs is not a mark of elim-hood, and could potentially be good for the village if they lead to productive discussion. -I made some unusual statements that many feel to be poor advice; if you look at my other games, this is not exactly unusual for me. -I did change my mind regarding Rand was purely from the arguments that other people posted, but then my suspicion that he might be an elim was also based on what other people said in that regard. The only things I concluded on my own about Rand (and which I still maintain) are that (a) he's probably the PO, and (b) Having a PO who has yet to fulfill his goals can be dangerous for the village in the late game, since he can cooperate with the elims to lynch the Convict in a LOL situation. (Conversely, other neutrals are probably going to fulfill their goals anyway if it's down to the wire, since the village and elims will be too busy trying to knock out each other to target them; the PO is the only one for whom survival is not enough.) EDIT: Also, @STINK, do you mind if I tell everybody the basic content of the PM that you referenced?
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But when it most matters would be at the end, when it would be most likely to be known that he was village. After consideration, I think Amanuensis is right about this not fitting elim!Rand. Either he's village, or he's neutral. (Or he's an elim trying to be sneaky, but that way lies IKYK and you can at most weaken the evidence against him being an elim, not turn it into evidence in favor).
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Call it four on their side, because the Parole Officer is generally opposed to the Convict and his allies (so I count him as negative one). I can assure you that the Parole Officer will not mind if we try to get the Convict lynched.
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Whereas I see "an analysis suggests it's in the neutral's best interests at the point that would be most critical" to be enough reason even though it's not given by said neutral.
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Ok. I think your point about execution probably holds merit, and while I'm not sure I agree with you about strategy, that's not enough if he might very well just be a villager who got a bit over-enthusiastic. Randuir.
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I will admit that I don't know how Rand usually does things. I'd still like the answer to the other question: Do you feel it's better to lynch a neutral with an incentive to help the elims eventually, or a slightly suspicious non-neutral?
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You don't think an elim might try to alienate the neutrals to the village? Ok...you've got a better idea of such things than me, That said, if we did know him to be the PO, would it be better to lynch him now, or continue hunting for the actual elims? EDIT due to ninja: Parole Officer. If he's not the Parole Officer, he's probably not Neutral.
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It's two possibilities: Either he is alienating neutrals (pointed out by others to be a potential elim act), or is a particular neutral who has an incentive to help the elims late-game and is therefore nearly as much of a threat as the actual elims are.
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(Also, mention was made of my less-than-usual posting, so I thought I'd mention that the first few hours were while I was unable to get on.) Is there a reason this reasoning bothers you?
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It seems to me that Randuir is most likely the Parole Officer. Now, that's not an elim role, but unlike the other neutral roles he has a particular reason to help the elims in one case, namely in the case of supporting a hammer to kill the Convict (which would likely be at a point where the wasted lynch costs the village the game). While I don't think Straw's playing style is the best for the village, I don't think he's the same sort of threat. (And if Randuir is not the Parole Officer, then he's certainly alienating the neutrals.) Randuir.
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I figured I was still suspicious enough that nobody was more likely to be sending in an elim kill on me than an investigation, so I also did not use cytonics.
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If your PMs with me were any indication, they were meant more as entertainment for you than anything of use to the village.
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Most likely. But it could be that Straw is, or neither.
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You mean according to #4? In order to get himself lynched, for which the PO would have promised to use his then-guaranteed-win position to ensure the Ward survives (which is the Convict's actual win condition). And yes, it's convoluted, but the only non-convoluted one is #1, which requires him to have made a big mistake. EDIT: Arraenae's post changes things. This was presumably trying to get someone pushing for his lynch to try to draw out the PO...though for what purpose, I'm not sure. (If he draws out the PO in a way that makes his lynch significantly more likely, he doesn't really accomplish anything as far as his own survival goes.)
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The thing is, if Joe is the convict, then revealing in a way that indicates a tendency toward the elims is likely to get him killed (not a lose condition, but definitely a disadvantage), since someone would be pushing to lynch him, and together with the villagers who decide to take out the known elim-leaning player even if he's not an elim, he'd be fairly sure to be lynched. So we're left with a few possibilities; I can think of the following: 1. Joe didn't think of the implications of such a statement in a role that has someone trying to get him lynched. 2. Joe is village, has no role, and was fishing for elim info in hopes that at least one elim would fall for it. 3. Joe is elim, and figured that sort of claim would help protect him from suspicion, while also hinting to the real Convict that he would like an alliance. 4. Joe is the Convict, knew full well this would get him lynched, and has a deal with the Parole Officer to cooperate in getting himself lynched in exchange for protection for the Ward.
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There probably are.